Liberal Leadership 2009

[jdobbin]

Bob Rae readies his campaign.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Liberal MP Bob Rae indicated Friday that he's ready to enter the race to succeed Stephane Dion as party leader, sources told CTV News.

Rae sent a letter to Dion asking that he be relieved from his duties as foreign affairs critic, so he could concentrate on his leadership run.

[Mr.Canada]

Bob Rae readies his campaign.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

I look forward to the race. It's going to be interesting to watch the posturing that will take place when the Commons is back in. I like it when they make a statement then say that they support the leader in the same breath. All parties do the same thing I find that entertaining and exciting.

[jdobbin]

I look forward to the race. It's going to be interesting to watch the posturing that will take place when the Commons is back in. I like it when they make a statement then say that they support the leader in the same breath. All parties do the same thing I find that entertaining and exciting.

November 18 is when Parliament is back in session. How long after the Throne Speech do you think Harper is going to lower the boom and call an election or make a confidence bill on something like crime or immigration legislation? Weeks?

My personal opinion is that Ignatieff has a strong advantage in this leadership race. I think he is extremely strong in Quebec Liberal circles. Rae is highly capable but the issue of Quebec support will be critical.

The "anything but Ingatieff" campaign last time worked in part because Dion was seen as the only person to be the default candidate. I'm sure some delegates figured that Dion could carry Quebec and that Quebec Liberals and the rest of the electorate would accept him grudgingly. To be fair, Dion and his party did win two BQ seats this past election but the Clarity Act and a general weakness overall never made him acceptable in the province (and subsequently across Canada).

There is no Quebec alternatives this time even if Cauchon or Coderre run. It is doubtful they would be seen as a default candidate. Moreover, for better or worse, the party has gone from French to Anglo leaders alternatively for much of it modern history.

The Liberals will see an Anglo leader with strong Francophone strength and very good language skills as the best bet to do well in Quebec. If that leader is from Toronto... all the better.

We have not seen an actual Toronto area MP become leader of the Liberal party in modern history.

[fellowtraveller]

Maybe Brian Tobin will run too.

I hear he has finally perfected his hair and is ready to rock.

I look forward to Dion turtling time after time after time. That has become a Liberal tradition.

[jdobbin]

I look forward to Dion turtling time after time after time. That has become a Liberal tradition.

I was going to say the brinkmanship on bills not relating to budget is a new Tory tradition. I suspect if they really want an election, we'll be back at the polls in December.

[Topaz]

My view is that Rae would be a target for the Cons about his days as Premier and his handling of the recession. Rae could therefore say that yes he did some things wrong which he has admitted to and therefore he has experience in a recession. Iggy, the cons keeping saying that he said the Libs didn't get it done which I'm sick of hearing about. Iggy also was for the Iraq war and thats not good. Dominic LeBlanc, a new face, doesn't seem to have any baggage like the others and he is in the same age range as the cons. Are there any women???

[Mr.Canada]

My view is that Rae would be a target for the Cons about his days as Premier and his handling of the recession. Rae could therefore say that yes he did some things wrong which he has admitted to and therefore he has experience in a recession. Iggy, the cons keeping saying that he said the Libs didn't get it done which I'm sick of hearing about. Iggy also was for the Iraq war and thats not good. Dominic LeBlanc, a new face, doesn't seem to have any baggage like the others and he is in the same age range as the cons. Are there any women???

Carolyn Bennett certainly has the experience but she has said she doesn't want the job. Mary-Anne Finley but she won't win either.

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...01?hub=Politics

Looming Liberal debt and a wounded fundraising arm might narrow the field and scare off some potential Grit leadership candidates, analysts said Saturday.

A day after Bob Rae announced his intention to run for the party's top job, Elections Canada reported that the Liberals have raised less money so far this year than the NDP, which historically lags behind the Grits.

The report comes as the Liberals were left reeling from a drubbing at the ballot boxes on Oct. 14, where the party's once-solid popular support was reduced to a historic low of 26.2 per cent under Leader Stephane Dion.

As I mentioned long ago, the party could still be headed for bankruptcy if they continue the way they have. Rae and Ignatieff have proven to be money earners... for themselves.

Ignatieff did a mea culpa on Iraq because without it, he likely could not move on. Rae has not addressed his time as premier in Ontario in the same way.

The article mentions that the field of candidates might be smaller because some owe money from the the last leadership run. I believe Dryden won't be running in part because of the money issue. I suspect we will see others from the last time make similar decisions on not running based on the issue of money.

It is as it should be. There were far too many candidates piling on last time with unrealistic expectations of winning. Some of the candidates (and I include Rae in this statement) should have probably run as an MP in 2006 before considering on a run for the leadership a number of months later.

In the meanwhile, Dion has said he will be looking at the money issue. The caucus should hold his feet to the fire on that.

I have suggested elsewhere in this forum that the Liberals should pull all polling and most research from the central office and let a private foundation take care of it. The foundation would be under no financial restrictions and could do the expensive and labour intensive work for Liberals to use for policy and political organization.

The prospect of an election could be very soon. If the Tories feel that they can push through non-money bills and threaten an election just to see the Liberals capitulate, they will. Dion said that abstaining is not an option. He is right. But so is taking no interest in raising money. He will have to find new ways of doing that and be prepared to go to an election and the party better have a platform ready just in case.

[Mr.Canada]

Abstaining seemed to be an option the last two years, what's changed?

[jdobbin]

Abstaining seemed to be an option the last two years, what's changed?

All of the leadership candidates from 2006 have been elected now. One of the reasons some in the caucus held off from bringing the government down was the hope that Liberals elected in Ontario byelections would create momentum. Harper waited to call those byelections last.

Abstaining now would only make all Liberal leadership candidates look weak rather just Dion. It suited Liberal rivals to make Dion look weak but if Rae and Ignatieff sit out crucial votes of confidence on immigration, they can kiss their leadership away.

If Harper decides to make every vote a confidence vote, expect an election in a few months. Even if he does get his way on most money bills, expect him to call an election. He wants it when Dion is place rather than another rival.

[madmax]

All of the leadership candidates from 2006 have been elected now. One of the reasons some in the caucus held off from bringing the government down was the hope that Liberals elected in Ontario byelections would create momentum. Harper waited to call those byelections last.

Abstaining now would only make all Liberal leadership candidates look weak rather just Dion. It suited Liberal rivals to make Dion look weak but if Rae and Ignatieff sit out crucial votes of confidence on immigration, they can kiss their leadership away.

If Harper decides to make every vote a confidence vote, expect an election in a few months. Even if he does get his way on most money bills, expect him to call an election. He wants it when Dion is place rather than another rival.

I expect Liberals Not to Abstain. I expect them to agree with the CPC. There will not be an election for a few years. No Liberal would ever be stupid enough to give the CPC a majority, by letting them run against Dion again.

It would only prove the LPC have continued to make the wrong decisions since his Election as Leader of the Liberal party.

[jdobbin]

I expect Liberals Not to Abstain. I expect them to agree with the CPC. There will not be an election for a few years. No Liberal would ever be stupid enough to give the CPC a majority, by letting them run against Dion again.

I expect the Tories to call the election if the Liberals won't in the next six months. It wouldn't matter if it was Dion, McCallum, Goodale or Dryden acting as leader. Harper wants to deliver the death stroke before the leadership is decided.

It would only prove the LPC have continued to make the wrong decisions since his Election as Leader of the Liberal party.

There will be no agreement if the Tories decide to make every issue a confidence one. the NDP and Bloc will vote no every time because they want an election. Harper will make every vote a confidence one if he wants an election. The expectation that the Liberals will capitulate can't happen without severely damaging Liberal leadership candidates.

If the NDP thinks they will get a free ride again this time, they are mistaken. Likewise, if the Tories think they can make everything a confidence vote, they are mistaken as well. The lack of cooperation in this Parliament is not a one party affair.

[jdobbin]

John Manley announces he will not run.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Former deputy prime minister John Manley says he has lost the "burning ambition necessary" to campaign and so will not run for the Liberal Party leadership, according to an email he sent to friends and colleagues.

In his statement, Manley said he has spent the last few days considering entering the race to succeed Stephane Dion, encouraged by the support of friends, former colleagues and total strangers.

Despite believing that public service is "the highest calling," Manley said he does not have the energy and devotion needed for a leadership race.

I think he also had to look at the recognition he had in Quebec which is nearly zero. He would have a tough time getting people to know him compared to Rae and Ignatieff.

[madmax]

John Manley announces he will not run.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

I think he also had to look at the recognition he had in Quebec which is nearly zero. He would have a tough time getting people to know him compared to Rae and Ignatieff.

Even though Manley has opted out....what is the deadline to opt in?

There has to be someone better then Rae and Ignatieff as a frontrunner.

[jdobbin]

Even though Manley has opted out....what is the deadline to opt in?

I'd assume some time a month or two before the May leadership vote.

I suppose someone like Manley could be drafted but I think he sees the reading on the wall. He has been out of office. It will be expensive. He has no presence in Quebec. His presence in the rest of Canada is one of blandness. In the Liberal party, there might be a few who believe he is too supportive of extending the mission in Afghanistan to 2015.

There has to be someone better then Rae and Ignatieff as a frontrunner.

Such as?

Even Jesus Christ would draw complaints for his long hair, beard, mustache and the fact that he was born in a barn.

[Mr.Canada]

I'd assume some time a month or two before the May leadership vote.

I suppose someone like Manley could be drafted but I think he sees the reading on the wall. He has been out of office. It will be expensive. He has no presence in Quebec. His presence in the rest of Canada is one of blandness. In the Liberal party, there might be a few who believe he is too supportive of extending the mission in Afghanistan to 2015.

Such as?

Even Jesus Christ would draw complaints for his long hair, beard, mustache and the fact that he was born in a barn.

Whomever take the reigns from Dion will most likely not ever be PM, merely a caretaker to get the party back on track and get a plan, policy and get some funraising plan. They don't have any of those things at this time except to say that Stephan Harper made Dion look like an idiot.

[jdobbin]

Whomever take the reigns from Dion will most likely not ever be PM, merely a caretaker to get the party back on track and get a plan, policy and get some funraising plan. They don't have any of those things at this time except to say that Stephan Harper made Dion look like an idiot.

Certainly it will take more than just a leadership change. I suggest a policy convention ala what Pearson got started. It was for liberal minded people, at least half who were not Liberals, organized in 1960. That convention became the bread and butter for the party for many years after and many of the non-Liberals became Liberal members afterwards.

As far as the long term Harper reign, I think that the zenith of the party might have been reached under him. Had a stronger leader been in place for the Liberals this past election, we could have been saying goodbye to the Tories.

[Mr.Canada]

Certainly it will take more than just a leadership change. I suggest a policy convention ala what Pearson got started. It was for liberal minded people, at least half who were not Liberals, organized in 1960. That convention became the bread and butter for the party for many years after and many of the non-Liberals became Liberal members afterwards.

As far as the long term Harper reign, I think that the zenith of the party might have been reached under him. Had a stronger leader been in place for the Liberals this past election, we could have been saying goodbye to the Tories.

I wholly agree with your first point jdobbin, right on point. This was before thje world starting going crazy with being politically correct which top me wastes time. IF people said what they mean't without trying to candy coat everything maybe we could identify the problems and get to work on how to fix it.

Well the same argument can be made for the Tories jdobbin. If they would've had another leader other than Harper they would've had a majority...so no. It doesn't seem like Canadians are ready to send the Liberals back yet. Canadians want to be assured that there won't be any more corruption or at least not as much. Every government is corrupted to a degree, Canadians know and accept this, but the trick is not to go too far.

[jdobbin]

I wholly agree with your first point jdobbin, right on point. This was before thje world starting going crazy with being politically correct which top me wastes time. IF people said what they mean't without trying to candy coat everything maybe we could identify the problems and get to work on how to fix it.

A policy convention is what the Liberals badly needed before this last election.

What is needed is a policy options convention not just comprised of Liberals to really suss out some good ideas.

Well the same argument can be made for the Tories jdobbin. If they would've had another leader other than Harper they would've had a majority...so no. It doesn't seem like Canadians are ready to send the Liberals back yet. Canadians want to be assured that there won't be any more corruption or at least not as much. Every government is corrupted to a degree, Canadians know and accept this, but the trick is not to go too far.

The problem for the Tories is they need this:

1. A bilingual candidate.

2. Experience in academia, business or government.

3. A national profile

4. Roots in the party

5. Likability

Certainly the Liberals will be looking for these characteristics when they select their candidate. Dion was strong in two of those categories, fair in one, poor in two. That was enough for a dramatic defeat for the Liberals. Harper is extremely poor in one of those categories and it keeps him from a majority.

[madmax]

Gerard Kennedy is looking to join in.

[jdobbin]

Party convention to be held in April.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Liberal Party of Canada will hold a leadership convention in Vancouver next year to determine who will take over the reins from Stephane Dion.

The party released new rules for the leadership race on Saturday, including a large entrance fee of $90,000. During the 2006 leadership campaign, the party charged hopefuls a $50,000 entrance fee.

Also, spending by the leadership candidates will be restricted to $1.5 million each, which is far smaller than 2006's $3.4 million limit.

[bluegreen]

Certainly it will take more than just a leadership change. I suggest a policy convention ala what Pearson got started. It was for liberal minded people, at least half who were not Liberals, organized in 1960. That convention became the bread and butter for the party for many years after and many of the non-Liberals became Liberal members afterwards.

As far as the long term Harper reign, I think that the zenith of the party might have been reached under him. Had a stronger leader been in place for the Liberals this past election, we could have been saying goodbye to the Tories.

I tend to concurr, but with caveats. First, assuming the leadership change yields Rae, or Ignatieff, both have much stronger, and better organised teams than the whole party did under Dion. They are the inheiritors of the Chretien, and Martin cliques, and could install a 'New and Improved' Liberal Party within a month. Neither put out their all for the National campaign just concluded, so a Liberal minority would have been a miracle under Dion. Had either of them been leader last year, then we wouldn't have had an election in 2008. Whichever of them wins, the other will play ball, because it will have been a long term decision, not an interim one like Dion.

No-one can predict whether the CPC has reached it's zenith, but it seems likely. They obviously have to broaden their appeal still further, and a four way electoral split will play less and less to their advantage over the coming 2 years. I suspect that 2008 was Harpers golden chance, never to be repeated. All bets are off of course, if they really go down on bended knee before Quebec. I hope they do, just so that I can sit back and watch Alberta, and backwoods Ontario boiling over!

[jdobbin]

Martha Hall Finlay won't run again.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...1111?hub=Canada

Hall Findlay said the fact that she still owes about $170,000 from the last leadership contest "played a big role" in her decision to sit this one out.

Ultimately, she said she concluded there are other ways than contesting the leadership to contribute to the revitalization and rebuilding of the party.

Among other things, she said she wants to work on recruiting more women and helping them develop the expertise needed to reach for the top.

I like her a lot but she is right that it would be an uphill battle. That and the money she owes must have made her think twice.

[capricorn]

Denis Coderre will not seek the leadership of the LPC.

Le député de la circonscription de Bourassa a pris sa décision après que l'exécutif du PLC eut annoncé les règles de la prochaine course à la direction, des règles que M. Coderre trouve «dépassées».

De plus, en tant que Québécois francophone, M. Coderre estime qu'il partirait avec un handicap dans la course, car il croit qu'après Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin et Stéphane Dion, les militants du parti désirent peut-être élire un chef qui n'est pas originaire du Québec.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/dossiers/success...as-candidat.php

Translation. The rules set by the Party's executive are too restrictive/stringent. He said he believes the Party will not select a leader from Quebec and that puts him at a disadvantage at the outset. Wise decision on Coderre's part.

[Vancouver King]

Denis Coderre will not seek the leadership of the LPC.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/dossiers/success...as-candidat.php

Translation. The rules set by the Party's executive are too restrictive/stringent. He said he believes the Party will not select a leader from Quebec and that puts him at a disadvantage at the outset. Wise decision on Coderre's part.

All this expensive process and time frame only to confirm the obvious: Michael Ignatieff will lead the Grits into the next election battle.