New Parliment

[Slim MacSquinty]

During this time of economic uncertainty it would be most advantageous to have a majority government, but alas Conservatives are yet unable to escape the kitten eating, neo-con Bush lover slander that's been thrown at them for over a decade, they say time heals all wounds we'll have to see. But in terms of what happens next here is my prediction:

Liberals will oust Dion, in about four months he will announce he is stepping aside once the leadersip convention is concluded, they will wait about a year to have one since they have no money.

Parliment will be a circus again since all the "leadership contenders" will be seeking the spot light and grandstanding. Rae, Iggy, Trudeau and Kennedy will fall just short of fist fights. In the meantime they will have a great deal of difficulty making compromises with Harper, let alone themselves.

Jack, newly boosted ego after actually being taken seriously by the media during his successful? campaign will demand the NDP agenda be adopted or they'll bring down the government. Get used to hearing that phrase.

LizzieMay won't be there.

Greens will enter into merger talks with the Liberals, until the door hits Dion's backside, then she'll be sent packing.

Next election will be in the spring of 2010, with the Liberals believing they are riding a wave with new leadership.

Despite weathering the economic crisis and poor world economy better than any other G8 nation, Harper will be accused of pining for George Bush with his neo-con agenda, taking the country in the wrong direction and that he must be stopped by all means possible or he'll ban abortions and advocate rounding up gays.

[jdobbin]

Next election will be in the spring of 2010, with the Liberals believing they are riding a wave with new leadership.

Too late. Next election will be early in the new year. Harper will say he needs a majority and go the electorate. It will happen before the Liberals have their new leader.

[drewski]

Too late. Next election will be early in the new year. Harper will say he needs a majority and go the electorate. It will happen before the Liberals have their new leader.

I think he'd feel a nasty backlash for doing that. People are sick of voting, which contributed tot he low voter turnout I think. If he has another on, people will get pissed off and some might vote liberal in spite

[jdobbin]

I think he'd feel a nasty backlash for doing that. People are sick of voting, which contributed tot he low voter turnout I think. If he has another on, people will get pissed off and some might vote liberal in spite

People said that about this last election too. It didn't happen. I expect money and effort will be poured into Quebec and Harper will go for it as fast as he can. The Liberals are weak and he doesn't want them to revive in Quebec and beyond.

[drewski]

People said that about this last election too. It didn't happen. I expect money and effort will be poured into Quebec and Harper will go for it as fast as he can. The Liberals are weak and he doesn't want them to revive in Quebec and beyond.

2.5 years was enough of a gap to keep people from getting pissed. if you're predication of early in the new year would mean less then a year between votes, far too short a period.

the only advantage might come is if Dion does indeed announce he's stepping down

Edited October 15, 2008 by drewski

[Slim MacSquinty]

It will take them a lot more than two years to right the finances of the good ship Liberal. They're all still in debt from their leadership race way more than a year ago, this campaign was run largley on credit. Harper is no fool, he can wait.

[jdobbin]

It will take them a lot more than two years to right the finances of the good ship Liberal. They're all still in debt from their leadership race way more than a year ago, this campaign was run largley on credit. Harper is no fool, he can wait.

He will wait for the Liberals to get their act together? The time is now to go after them. As soon as Parliament is back, I expect Harper to embarrass, taunt and to confront the Liberals at every turn. If he doesn't get them to pull the plug, I expect he will say Parliament is dysfunction and call an election.

[jdobbin]

2.5 years was enough of a gap to keep people from getting pissed. if you're predication of early in the new year would mean less then a year between votes, far too short a period.

the only advantage might come is if Dion does indeed announce he's stepping down

I expect he certainly will be asked. If he doesn't, it still is in Harper's interest to pull the plug within the next four or five months.

[blueblood]

He will wait for the Liberals to get their act together? The time is now to go after them. As soon as Parliament is back, I expect Harper to embarrass, taunt and to confront the Liberals at every turn. If he doesn't get them to pull the plug, I expect he will say Parliament is dysfunction and call an election.

This reminds me of the minority turmoil of the 60's. You have a point here.

[M.Dancer]

If it means two to three years of Dobbin posing increasingly incredible scenarios of the devious and sinistre Harper and how mean and nasty he can be, shoot me now.

[jdobbin]

This reminds me of the minority turmoil of the 60's. You have a point here.

The time between Pearson and Diefenbaker was a highly partisanly charged time. Pearson and Diefenbaker went for the jugular whenever they could and if they saw an opportunity for an election they could win....well, they took it. Didn't work for Pearson though when he did it.

I don't get this idea that Harper is going to wait till the Liberals are ready to pull the plug. That courtesy is simply a luxury he can't afford and I don't think it is in nature to offer it.

Everyone calls him a master strategist and he does play all the angles. He isn't infallible and Quebec clearly demonstrates this. However, I think he knows he can't let the Liberals retool their leadership, policies, finances and organization while he cools his heels waiting.

In other words, the time is now. The clock is ticking and the timeframe is the Liberal leadership review in 6 months. If Dion fights for the leadership, a leadership convention must be set. If he resigns in the next two or three months, the convention with be a policy and leadership convention. I don't think Harper will want to wait.

[Slim MacSquinty]

I don't think Harper will pull the plug, the Liberals won't know what to do because they'll be teetering on bankruptcy by the time they finish the leadership event, though they'll be eager to go to the polls. All the while they'll be sucking and blowing just the same as Dion, Harper is more likely to give them plenty of rope for a time. Liberals are so poorly represented in parliment that the NDP and Bloc will likely team up to force the next election, hopefully on culture or the arts, that will be flat out funny.

[mikedavid00]

Too late. Next election will be early in the new year. Harper will say he needs a majority and go the electorate. It will happen before the Liberals have their new leader.

That would be too balsey.. i dont see him doing something so extreme although I do agree with it.

You want to see low voter turn out? Lol..

Who knows.. Libearl might get a majority because on the extremists will vote.

[OddSox]

For at least the next year, Harper has free reign. He just has to ride the edge a bit and he will get _almost_ anything he wants through parliament, and whoever cuts him off first (whether it be the Liberals, NDP or Bloc) will get the blame. .

[jdobbin]

I don't think Harper will pull the plug, the Liberals won't know what to do because they'll be teetering on bankruptcy by the time they finish the leadership event, though they'll be eager to go to the polls.

So you think the Liberals will get weaker still and Harper should wait for that time to pull the plug?

[scribblet]

If it means two to three years of Dobbin posing increasingly incredible scenarios of the devious and sinistre Harper and how mean and nasty he can be, shoot me now.

:lol:LOL

I do not believe he will pull the plug anytime soon, if he did, this time around the voters would not go for it.

[Slim MacSquinty]

Politics runs on money, they've got none, they go into an expensive leadership convention, then they've got even less. What'll they do in parliment during this time, lots of hot air not much action, Dion revisisted. Harper's war chest is full, he can go anytime, he won't want to pull the trigger twice, as enticing as it may seem. He'll be content to sit back and watch them spin their wheels, the longer he's in power the better he looks. The odd combinations of NDP, BLOC and Liberal with between them just enough votes to bring down the government, should be interesting. Do the math, all three opposition parties needed to force the election. ( I'm even correcting my previous post here) BLOC 50 plus NDP 38 only equals 88 votes, 56 more votes needed, that's most of the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

I do not believe he will pull the plug anytime soon, if he did, this time around the voters would not go for it.

But you see, we heard that argument about a backlash in regards to fixed elections. I said back in my earliest posts back in 2006 that Harper would pull the plug rather than wait to the end and he did. There was no backlash. What we see instead is vote apathy.

I was ridiculed for suggesting Harper would call an election before the fixed election date. I was correct about that. I said it was still within the rules for Harper to say no confidence for whatever measure he believes he can justify.

Politicians don't care about who doesn't vote but who does vote. He won't wait two years for the Liberals to have a leader and finances to fight an election.

As for the person you replied to, it is just another example of personalizing. Perhaps he can use the ignore button. It would be a shame if someone actually accommodated his wishes.

[jdobbin]

Politics runs on money, they've got none, they go into an expensive leadership convention, then they've got even less. What'll they do in parliment during this time, lots of hot air not much action, Dion revisisted. Harper's war chest is full, he can go anytime, he won't want to pull the trigger twice, as enticing as it may seem.

So you think they will get weaker. I don't know that Harper believes that.

A stronger Liberal leader and some appealing policies could help bring in the finances. Conventions usually bring in money for the party.

However, it is your opinion that they will be bankrupt, not have a good leader, be poorly organized and not have better policies.

[capricorn]

Politics runs on money, they've got none, they go into an expensive leadership convention, then they've got even less.

Should Harper win his defamation suit against the Liberals, where will they find the millions they'll have to pay in damages? They'd most likely have to fall back on the federal election subsidies. That would leave almost zero for another election campaign.

Edited October 16, 2008 by capricorn

[betsy]

Will there be any floor-crossers this time around?

[OddSox]

I believe that Harper can start his mandate with a very conservative fiscal budget without any trouble. Despite their promises during the campaign, the Liberals actually do understand what is important for our economy - it's just that sometimes they get confused. (Sorry - was that rude?)

Edited October 16, 2008 by OddSox

[jdobbin]

Should Harper win his defamation suit against the Liberals, where will they find the millions they'll have to pay in damages? They'd most likely have to fall back on the federal election subsidies. That would leave almost zero for another election campaign.

I expect if they win that suit, the party will declare bankruptcy. No money paid out for the suit then.

If the suit goes against Harper, I wonder if he personally has to pay damages.

[capricorn]

If the suit goes against Harper, I wonder if he personally has to pay damages.

To my understanding, all costs will be borne by the Conservative Party.

[jdobbin]

I believe that Harper can start his mandate with a very conservative fiscal budget without any trouble. Despite their promises during the campaign, the Liberals actually do understand what is important for our economy - it's just that sometimes they get confused. (Sorry - was that rude?)

For the last two years I said the Liberals should focus on tax cuts and keeping spending under wraps. I think we will see a return to that. Still, there are other issues on healthcare, foreign affairs, crime daycare and the environment that the Liberals can create a different policy on and meet with success.