2008 Election Canada Results

[blueblood]

Things have wound down to a close and it will be interesting to see what the results are and the consequences of the results...

[geoffrey]

Harper will kill the polar bears, the market will crash, the Americans will invade Iran, all our food will have listeria and health care insurance will cost you $1million per year starting tomorrow morning.

Or so I've been told.

[M.Dancer]

Pollsters will be busy explaining how the polls misread the national mood at the crucial point and why their polls were right, at that moment....

[blueblood]

abc campaign worked in NL, but no major changes out east.

[jdobbin]

CBC has declared a Conservative government.

B.C. has just closed.

[jdobbin]

I think that anyone who didn't predict an independent elected should have figured on Casey in Nova Scotia. I thought the Tories would take it.

[August1991]

It looks like it will be close to a majority government. If Harper had managed the campaign in Quebec better, he would have been assured of a majority.

For such a poor campaign, the Tories are doing better than I expected.

[August1991]

I think that anyone who didn't predict an independent elected should have figured on Casey in Nova Scotia. I thought the Tories would take it.

Andre Arthur was re-elected too.

[jdobbin]

Andre Arthur was re-elected too.

Thought that might have been a steal as well. Independent are probably the hardest to predict as it is local politics at its finest.

[jdobbin]

It looks like it will be close to a majority government. If Harper had managed the campaign in Quebec better, he would have been assured of a majority.

For such a poor campaign, the Tories are doing better than I expected.

It could be close. I think Harper himself might want to call an election before the Liberals get a new leader (if they do in fact get a new leader). I still think we might see something early on in the new year.

[peter_puck]

It could be close. I think Harper himself might want to call an election before the Liberals get a new leader (if they do in fact get a new leader). I still think we might see something early on in the new year.

Harper would need his head examined if he did that. The backlash would be incredible.

[August1991]

Thought that might have been a steal as well. Independent are probably the hardest to predict as it is local politics at its finest.

The Tories did not run anyone against Arthur.

----

This will be very close to a Tory majority - they'll get something around 145-150 seats.

I just can't see the GG going to Dion to form a government. But Harper will need the help of one of the Bloc/NDP/Liberals to stay in power. That's exactly what we had in the previous parliament.

No one has a stomach for an election for at least three years.

----

Harper lost his majority in Quebec and the Bloc is still a player. Also, Montreal still likes the Liberals.

Trudeau is in, Mulcair is out and the Libs are taking some others from the Bloc.

[jdobbin]

Harper would need his head examined if he did that. The backlash would be incredible.

Don't know about that. No backlash for calling an election this past time even though it was a fixed election.

[jdobbin]

The Tories did not run anyone against Arthur.

Didn't know that. Any reason why?

This will be very close to a Tory majority - they'll get something around 145-150 seats.

I just can't see the GG going to Dion to form a government. But Harper will need the help of one of the Bloc/NDP/Liberals to stay in power. That's exactly what we had in the previous parliament.

No one has a stomach for an election for at least three years.

I think Harper will say it is intolerable for him to except to have to keep the confidence if he falls short. Expect an early call.

Harper lost his majority in Quebec and the Bloc is still a player. Also, Montreal still likes the Liberals.

Trudeau is in, Mulcair is out and the Libs are taking some others from the Bloc.

I am looking at that now. Just a protest vote. Layton will have to do some deep thinking about what went wrong as he campaigned like a fiend in the province.

[August1991]

Didn't know that. Any reason why?

Arthur votes with the Conservatives.

I am looking at that now. Just a protest vote. Layton will have to do some deep thinking about what went wrong as he campaigned like a fiend in the province.

The NDP spent a fortune in Quebec and have basically nothing to show for it.

I'm not even sure that there has been a change in the ppular vote.

In fact, in Quebec, the results are identical to 2006 with the exception of Trudeau taking a seat from the Bloc.

----

Harper is close to my first prediction of 135 seats. If he's below 140, then we truly have a hung parliament. We're back to the same place we were two months ago.

[jdobbin]

Arthur votes with the Conservatives.

Ah, wonder why he wants to be independent then.

The NDP spent a fortune in Quebec and have basically nothing to show for it.

I'm not even sure that there has been a change in the ppular vote.

In fact, in Quebec, the results are identical to 2006 with the exception of Trudeau taking a seat from the Bloc.

Certainly looks like that.

Harper is close to my first prediction of 135 seats. If he's below 140, then we truly have a hung parliament. We're back to the same place we were two months ago.

Way short of a majority.

[August1991]

Close ridings: Mulcair may win it, and it appears that Dosanjh and Ruby Dhalla are losing.

[Smallc]

Well, Alberta isn't solid tory blue anymore.

[normanchateau]

Things have wound down to a close and it will be interesting to see what the results are and the consequences of the results...

Dion will step down. The economy will deteriorate. The Liberals, with or without Dion, will prop up the Harper government until the Liberals select a new leader. The economy will deteriorate. Eventually, the three opposition parties will defeat Harper in a nonconfidence motion. The economy will continue to deteriorate and Harper will lose the next election. People will look back at October 14th, 2008, as a missed selling opportunity.

[Rue]

My analysis would be as follows;

1-the vote shows a clear distinct split between rural and urban voters - with the vast majority of rural voters soundly rejecting the carbon tax platform of Dion and thus picking up 10 seats in Ontario which accounts for the major amount of seats the Tories picked up;

2-The NDP's gaining of 8 seats again came from rural areas rejecting the carbon tax-the only noticeable NDP wins in the urban areas are Jack Layton and Olivia Chow who are voted in very much as individuals and not necessarily as NDP'ers-I used t live in Chow's riding and many non NDP'ers vote for her because as a councilor in city politics and as an MP she is very much a street MP-she is grass roots and involved in local issues-the NDP pick up was clearly a repudiation of the Liberal carbon tax in rural areas where they would not go Tory;

3-the Block Quebecois retention of 50 seats represents 2 phenomena; i-Harper was counting on 30 Quebec seats to push him over the top-he might have had them but the moment he opened his mouth and made the anti-artist speech he literally handed the province back to Gilles Duceppe; ii-the Liberals failed to rally badly needed Quebec seats which is a clear repudiation of Dion which is not suprising given his role in the Clarity Act and once again Quebec shows the Liberal party is a party only elected on the Island of Montreal, i.e., its rejected by rural Quebecers for both Dion's role in the Clarity Act and his embracing of carbon tax;

4-the country has clearly rejected Stephane Dion coast to coast-people just did not buy his carbon tax and it will cost him because all his flunkies said don't push the carbon tax you will lose the rural vote if you do and he refused to listen and bam that is what happened - what Canadians rejected was not just the carbon tax but the fact that Dion just is not a people person - he lacks the chemistry to be able to carry a party and inspire a vision and its not just his severe English language problems but his method of communications-he lectures and he lectures as an angry professor and Canadians don't like angry people;

5-as per 4, Layton's smarmy cheeriness did get him some more seats but once again the NDP shows it is never going to be anything but a rump party of up to 40 seats;

6-Harper once again has shown us what we know-Canadians don't like him-Canadians don't like his anger, his arrogance, his cheap shots, his smugness, his attempts to portray himself as cuddly-they know what he is-a Social Credit Westerner whose agenda is to protect Alberta's oil industry at all costs-all Harper blew Quebec away with his costly anti-art comment-what he did show is he has pitted this country against itself and has used his rural popularity to get elected depending on the urban vote splitting itself between Liberal, Green and NDP-the pick up of seats is a rejection of the carbon tax scheme, not a love for Harper;

7-since the departure of Trudea no federal politician has offered a unified vision of Canada-we went from Mulroney putting together a coalition of Quebec Union National voters joining the federal PC party and Westerners with rural Ontario and half the Maritimes all based on playing to regional politics not a central vision. Then came Chretien who very much is a political fluke and survived as long as he did precisely because the Tories imploded and split in two with Reform and Progressive wings paralyzing it and easily allowing Chretiens to come up the middle. All Chretiens had to do was keep Ontario in his hip pocket, 20 seats from Quebec and half Atlantic Canada to rule and that is what he did-again someone who did not give a damn about the West or Quebec and appealed to only certain regions to keep him in power-now comes Harper, a Social Credit politician who hijacked the Conservative Party, routed out its Red Tories and now runs it with an iron fist and again a politician who deliberately exploits Western alienation to keep himself in power;

8-look around notice anything-I do we have two seperatists, Harper and Duceppe in essence running the country-two politicians committed to a fragmented regional view and not interested in all of Canada just their home bases.

I think personally Stephane Dion was a disaster an absolut eunmitigated disaster. He presented a platform that no one would be able to understand in the short sound bites of todays election campaigns and he compounded the error by being unable to explain it in either language-he went into an election convinced he should talk environment and it was economics that took over.

The best thing for this country would be if both Harper and Dion departed. Instead what we will get is more of the same. Harper will rule easily as if he has a majority for a minimum of one year and more like two. In the next two years the Liberals will implode with Ignatieff and Rae and their collosal egos attacking each other trying to get rid of Dion. Both will polarize the party and heaveb forbid but McGuinty might just enter the race as the compromise and offer the bland, boring, middle of the road politician this country might embrace after two more years of the abrasive Flaherty in finance who I predict will be transferred out of finance in two years when the recession is at is peek and he has succeeded in insulting all Canadians.

Whether Harper sticks around for another election is anyone's guess.

[Argus]

My analysis would be as follows;

1-the vote shows a clear distinct split between rural and urban voters

Between areas with high immigrant numbers and those without, you mean.

3-the Block Quebecois retention of 50 seats represents 2 phenomena; i-Harper was counting on 30 Quebec seats to push him over the top-he might have had them but the moment he opened his mouth and made the anti-artist speech he literally handed the province back to Gilles Duceppe;

Drivel. The die was cast when Quebecers allowed themselves to be emotionally manipulated over the non-issue of a miniscule cut to a few poorly used arts grants. Harper's comment on elitist artists came long after Conservative fortunes in Quebec had fallen.

6-Harper once again has shown us what we know-Canadians don't like him-Canadians don't like his anger, his arrogance, his cheap shots, his smugness, his attempts to portray himself as cuddly

A little bitter, are we? How is Harper more guilty of any of that than the other political leaders?

-they know what he is-a Social Credit Westerner whose agenda is to protect Alberta's oil industry at all costs-

He has more seats in Ontario than Alberta. I think your view has little in the way of logic or common sense behind it and much in the way of resentment and bitterness.

[Riverwind]

Between areas with high immigrant numbers and those without, you mean.

The conservatives did very well in Vancouver suburbs with Chinese and East Indian majorities. Udjal Dosnjih nearly lost his seat.

[Smallc]

The conservatives did very well in Vancouver suburbs with Chinese and East Indian majorities. Udjal Dosnjih nearly lost his seat.

Oh, forgive him, he just wants another reason to hate immigrants.

[Vancouver King]

My analysis would be as follows;

1-the vote shows a clear distinct split between rural and urban voters - with the vast majority of rural voters soundly rejecting the carbon tax platform of Dion and thus picking up 10 seats in Ontario which accounts for the major amount of seats the Tories picked up;

You make some good points. In a caucus already top heavy with Western rural MP's, Harper must now accommodate another dozen or so from Central Canada.

The NDP's gaining of 8 seats again came from rural areas rejecting the carbon tax-the only noticeable NDP wins in the urban areas are Jack Layton and Olivia Chow who are voted in very much as individuals and not necessarily as NDP'ers.

Layton was arguably the only other 'winner' of the evening but ironically shares with Harper the distinction of misreading Quebec's pulse despite investing major resources there.

I see the highlight of Layton's evening right here in Vancouver Kingsway - David Emerson's riding. Conservatives and Liberals were beat-down here with barely 25% of the vote each as voters passed judgment on Emerson's floor-crossing to the Tories and the Liberal party for not seeing that action coming. The NDP's Don Davies will become an important voice in the party's expanded caucus.

Harper was counting on 30 Quebec seats to push him over the top-he might have had them but the moment he opened his mouth and made the anti-artist speech he literally handed the province back to Gilles Duceppe...

For the foreseeable future a metaphor for incompetence and stupidity will be Harper's Quebec campaign team. The Keystone Cops of Canada's political universe. Didn't they bother to vet the arts cuts before going public?

[Argus]

The conservatives did very well in Vancouver suburbs with Chinese and East Indian majorities. Udjal Dosnjih nearly lost his seat.

I didn't say immirants don't ever vote Tory. Howerever, every pundit in the land has stated that, in general, immigrants continue to vote Liberal. The big cities are where immigrants are located in the greatest numbers. I don't think it's a coincidence that the big cities remain bastions of Liberal support.