Could it be true?

[betsy]

Just now,Duceppe is having a rally and his voice sounds desperate. He repeatedly urges Quebecers to go out and vote, that they should stop a Harper majority. Then he adds, "despite all appearances, the reality is Harper is close to getting a majority."

Is this just simply a ploy to make sure that Quebecers do go out to vote....or...could it be true?

[Smallc]

Is this just simply a ploy to make sure that Quebecers do go out to vote....or...could it be true?

I'm really wondering if the numbers aren't telling the truth, if we're all being fooled by the electorate.

[capricorn]

Just now,Duceppe is having a rally and his voice sounds desperate. He repeatedly urges Quebecers to go out and vote, that they should stop a Harper majority. Then he adds, "despite all appearances, the reality is Harper is close to getting a majority."

Is this just simply a ploy to make sure that Quebecers do go out to vote....or...could it be true?

When it comes to voting, Quebecers keep their cards close to their vests. Look what happened in the last election. Everyone was dumbfounded by the level of support the Conservatives received. Who knows? Maybe the BQ did its own polling, which all parties do, and was spooked by the findings. The loud noises coming from some circles in Quebec may be just that. Noise. The Conservatives will probably do better than expected in La Belle Province.

[capricorn]

"The percentage of undecided voters, while fairly small at 8%, has actually inched up in recent days. In Quebec, an astonishing number of respondents – nearly a quarter – say they are “likely” to change their vote intention before going to the polling station."

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...ctober-13-2008/

Presumably, this means a fair number of Quebecers who initially said they would support the BQ may well cast their vote for another party. The question is which party will benefit most from this switch in support?

[Bryan]

That undecided/willing to change their minds group is at lot more vital than most people realize.

I was playing with this predictor this morning: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/

It really is amazing how little of a shift in percentage support is required to make huge difference in seat projections, especially the Quebec vote.

[seabee]

I heard excerpts in french of his speech on the news. From what I understand, what he meant is that there are a sufficient number of ridings in the RoC where the swing vote is may still favor Harper that he might still get a majority; Québécois should do their utmost to avoid this by avoiding to spread the vote too thin among the other opposition parties that could let the CPC slip through.

As far as the Bloc is concerned in Québec, he has no reason to be desperate. All analysts and observers agree that the Bloc has little chances of losing more than one or two seats, but that he is more likely to gain a few more.

As for the CPC in Québec, very little chances of any gain, but probably a few losses, maybe as many as five.

[kengs333]

Just now,Duceppe is having a rally and his voice sounds desperate. He repeatedly urges Quebecers to go out and vote, that they should stop a Harper majority. Then he adds, "despite all appearances, the reality is Harper is close to getting a majority."

Is this just simply a ploy to make sure that Quebecers do go out to vote....or...could it be true?

The polls don't show it, but many people are still undecided; so it's a scare tactic. The Bloc will probably do well anyway, but why not say such things on the last day just to be sure.

The Conservatives have no hope in Quebec; Harper really fumbled here, and this is going to plague him for the rest of his political career...

[independent]

The polls don't show it, but many people are still undecided; so it's a scare tactic. The Bloc will probably do well anyway, but why not say such things on the last day just to be sure.

The Conservatives have no hope in Quebec; Harper really fumbled here, and this is going to plague him for the rest of his political career...

I think you better take it very seriously. Duceppe is sending the message that you better go out and vote. A lot of voters really do not think it makes a difference who gets in as long as it is not HARPER. If the voters feel that it is definitely not going to be a majority government they will not even vote. That is why Harper came out and said it will not be a Majority. He was trying to lull voters to sleep.

[normanchateau]

The Conservatives have no hope in Quebec; Harper really fumbled here, and this is going to plague him for the rest of his political career...

And the Bloq will never let Quebecers forget that Harper wanted Canada to invade Iraq and went on US television to tell Americans that he stood with George Bush on this issue.

Given the antipathy of francophone Quebecers to Dion's strong federalism and Harper's social conservatism, both leaders will ultimately need to be replaced if either the Conservatives or Liberals hope ever to win a majority.

Canada can anticipate perpetual minorities as long as Harper and Dion continue as party leaders.

[capricorn]

Canada can anticipate perpetual minorities as long as Harper and Dion continue as party leaders.

These leaders will not perpetually lead their parties. Dion for one will soon be gone and Harper might face a leadership review if he fails to improve his 2006 numbers. IMO Layton has passed his best before date and the NDP desperately needs to modernize itself.

I think it's more the fact that the left is fighting for the same vote. Leftist parties should merge to offer a clearer choice to the electorate. Only a two party system would break the cycle of minority governments.

[normanchateau]

Dion for one will soon be gone and Harper might face a leadership review if he fails to improve his 2006 numbers.

Which 2006 numbers? Seats or popular votes? I expect Harper will pick up a few seats tomorrow but will not increase his share of the popular vote. The pickup for Harper will be entirely due to shifts within the non-rightwing parties. CPC needs to dump Harper if they hope for a majority. Mulroney won two consecutive majorities by capturing centrist voters. Harper showed in 2004, 2006 and 2008 that he cannot capture the centre.

I agree that Dion will not run as LPC leader in another election. But I don't hear CPC supporters acknowledging that Harper needs the boot if a CPC majority is to materialize.

[Vancouver King]

Duceppe's urgent tone reflects his concern that his party's overwhelming lead might lead to complacency by supporters. Standard strategy fare from a front runner.

[Mr.Canada]

Harper is very far from being a social conservative...that's ridiculous. Plain and simple.

There has been a huge increase in social spending and immigration since the 1960's no matter who was living at Sussex. So give it a rest already.

The CPC is really just the Liberals of the 50's and 60's. Every party has taken a step to the left.

Instead of parroting the CBC, please comment on how he is a social conservative.

[kengs333]

Harper is very far from being a social conservative...that's ridiculous. Plain and simple.

He would be if he could be. Give him a majority, and you'll finally see what his hidden agenda is all about.

[normanchateau]

Harper is very far from being a social conservative...that's ridiculous. Plain and simple.

Instead of parroting the CBC, please comment on how he is a social conservative.

If I provided you with examples, you would no doubt claim that this is not evidence of social conservatism. But here are some examples:

As leader of the Opposition, Harper voted against Bill C-250, the legislation which made it a hate crime to promote or advocate the killing of homosexuals. Harper has no problem with hate crime legislation per se. For example, he favours hate crime legislation when the criterion is religion, race or ethnicity. But he opposes it when the criterion is sexual orientation. C-250 passed anyway because a majority of MPs, including some in Harper's own party, voted for C-250.

Harper opposes abortion, embryonic stem cell research and same sex marriage. Although he claims that he won't introduce legislation to overturn these, his positions are nonetheless those of a social conservative.

When Harper campaigned in the 2006 election, he promised not to reintroduce the marijuana decriminalization legislation introduced by the Liberals before they were voted out of office. The NDP and BQ also support decriminalization of possession of tiny quantities of marijuana. The Greens support outright legalization. A majority of Canadians favour decriminalization. Harper favours criminal sentences for teenagers in possession of even a few grams of marijuana. Harper's position is anti-libertarian and socially conservative. Government intrusion for possession of a few grams of marijuana is evidence of social conservatism.

Harper's omnibus crime bill has a mandatory six month jail sentence for one marijuana plant, i.e., judges will not have discretion in sentences in such cases.

How about Bill C-10 where Harper's government decided not to fund art that they considered "offensive"? Sure, they withdrew C-10 a few days ago but only because Harper was desperate to portray himself as not being a social conservative.

Of course those Canadians who are even more socially conservative than Harper would not view him as a social conservative. I'm sure there are dozens of rural rednecks, prairie Neanderthals, mouthbreeders and even a handful of people who can spell who don't view Harper as a social conservative.

[Bryan]

Which 2006 numbers? Seats or popular votes? I expect Harper will pick up a few seats tomorrow but will not increase his share of the popular vote. The pickup for Harper will be entirely due to shifts within the non-rightwing parties. CPC needs to dump Harper if they hope for a majority. Mulroney won two consecutive majorities by capturing centrist voters. Harper showed in 2004, 2006 and 2008 that he cannot capture the centre.

And yet, Mulroney was a poor PM, while Harper is the best one we've had in at least 40 yrs. I'll take a great PM with a minority over an poor one with a majority any day.

[normanchateau]

I'll take a great PM with a minority over an poor one with a majority any day.

Fortunately Harper will never win a majority so this social conservative will eventually be thrown out by his own party.

[mikedavid00]

I'm really wondering if the numbers aren't telling the truth, if we're all being fooled by the electorate.

Wishful thinking.

Lets face it - it's another minority in Canada.

(double-vague pun intended)

I heard that Harper won't care this time because none of the parties will be willing to go back to elections so will goven the way he wants to as the Liberals internally fight for power to replace Dion for next time.

Lets hope Harper makes immigration his #1 priority and puts a freeze on our sponsorship and point system program. (I didn't say temporary workers).

With the mass full time job loses in Ontario, we simply cannot afford to let 200,000 people wander out of pearson airport who are of little benefit to our economy and country.

But one benefit they bring.. I have to say, they sure know how to convert those ridings into Liberal! You think that's why they are being let in to begin with? Hmmm...

[normanchateau]

Wishful thinking.

I heard that Harper won't care this time because none of the parties will be willing to go back to elections so will goven the way he wants to as the Liberals internally fight for power to replace Dion for next time.

I think Dion will be less rather than more likely to prop up the Conservatives this time.

[mikedavid00]

I think Dion will be less rather than more likely to prop up the Conservatives this time.

Why would you say that for?

When the Liberals start their famous in-fighting, they wont be in a good position to run for election.

[normanchateau]

Why would you say that for?

When the Liberals start their famous in-fighting, they wont be in a good position to run for election.

To counter continuing NDP criticism of the Liberals propping up Harper, to recapture NDP voters and because Dion has nothing to lose.

There will be a lot of Liberal in-fighting but I'm sure the race has begun and whoever replaces Dion could only be a more effective campaigner than Dion.

[Argus]

Just now,Duceppe is having a rally and his voice sounds desperate. He repeatedly urges Quebecers to go out and vote, that they should stop a Harper majority. Then he adds, "despite all appearances, the reality is Harper is close to getting a majority."

Is this just simply a ploy to make sure that Quebecers do go out to vote....or...could it be true?

The numbers don't add up. A Harper majority at this point would be the biggest divergence from polls in history. No, Duceppe is continuing to suggest a Harper majority for the same reason the Liberals and NDP and Greens are. They have nothing attractive in their platforms to bring people out to vote for them, so they're desperately wailing away at the "scary Harper" theme in hopes the suckers will scurry out to vote for them to "save themselves" from the imaginary horror that is a Harper majority.

[mikedavid00]

To counter continuing NDP criticism of the Liberals propping up Harper, to recapture NDP voters and because Dion has nothing to lose.

There will be a lot of Liberal in-fighting but I'm sure the race has begun and whoever replaces Dion could only be a more effective campaigner than Dion.

Well the party's do have debts to pay and campaigning isn't free for them.

I just hope Bob Rae does't get to be Liberal leader. I would welcome Rae into the Conservatives to replace Harper. Harper, even when he was in minority, is a lousy leader as far as leading elections.

Mark my words now, I feel that Bob Rae will eventually become PM of Canada. Which party? I dont know.

I really hope that Rae will move to Conservatives.

[Pliny]

Well the party's do have debts to pay and campaigning isn't free for them.

I just hope Bob Rae does't get to be Liberal leader. I would welcome Rae into the Conservatives to replace Harper. Harper, even when he was in minority, is a lousy leader as far as leading elections.

Mark my words now, I feel that Bob Rae will eventually become PM of Canada. Which party? I dont know.

I really hope that Rae will move to Conservatives.

Doesn't ideology stand for anything these days? Rae was an NDPer provincially, a liberal federally and now you think he should be a conservative? Are all these parties the same and politicians can just move around where they feel they have the best chance? Bob Rae will never move to the Conservative party because he isn't one.

Harper is a social conservative though. I don't see how anyone could mistake him for something else.

[mikedavid00]

Doesn't ideology stand for anything these days? Rae was an NDPer provincially, a liberal federally and now you think he should be a conservative? Are all these parties the same and politicians can just move around where they feel they have the best chance? Bob Rae will never move to the Conservative party because he isn't one.

Harper is a social conservative though. I don't see how anyone could mistake him for something else.

Yeah I certanly agree with you overall. But factor in the reality of our wacked political system and voters.

I heard on the radio that insiders have been eyeballing Rae for a while and that he's not happy with the Liberals. Personally I feel Rae is a Conservative at heart and doesn't agree with a lot of Canada's current policies with taxes and immigration. He knows that a group of Sikh's cost him his leadership race. Why? All because he took the side of the victims of the Air India bombing. He fully realizes the problems in Canada.

Rae is an elite. He's extremely politically saavy. He can win a federal election - Harper can not and is a lousy leader. It's been known for a long time.

Jim Flaherty is seen as too 'white' and racist. He's seen as an Albertan... a Bush.. a hick. a beef eater. I've twice now heard radio hosts correct people that he's from Ontario. He's also physically short.

I love Harpers policies, but you really have to look at how racially segregated the voting bloc is. You *really* need someone who is politically saavy to take over the Conservative party.

Peter Mckay is just too young. In a decade or too i'm sure he'll be in the greater lime-lite. I see him as a Liberal though. Mckay will move to the Liberals eventually. It's in the cards. He just isn't a conservative. He's an elite out for power and fits the Liberal party very well.

I was right about Belinda and have a good track record.