Conservatives fear N.L. wipeout in federal election

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...008&no_ads=

A Conservative radio ad in Newfoundland provides an insight into the party's fear of being shut out from the province after the federal election.

"We're facing big issues this election, but none bigger than whether we're going to take up our role in the next federal government," says Craig Westcott, a Tory candidate in St. John's East.

"Voting ABC will hurt Ottawa, but it will hurt Newfoundland even more. Isolating ourselves from Canada is not an option."

Premier Danny Williams and his so-called Anything But Conservative campaign have gnawed away at the party's foundation in the province. The co-chairman of the Conservative campaign in Newfoundland recently blamed the premier's offensive for the party's struggles in fundraising and recruiting volunteers.

There has been growing debate on radio call-in shows on the impact of a "big goose egg," as Williams has characterized it, if the Conservatives win the Oct. 14 election but the province elects only opposition MPs.

The Tories are going to need some of these seats if they hope to get their majority.

[Vancouver King]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...008&no_ads=

The Tories are going to need some of these seats if they hope to get their majority.

The loss of 3 seats in NL might be a harbinger of worse news to come for Tories the evening of Oct. 14. There is a huge reservoir of potential strategic votes nationally (40%+) all stacked to the left of Harper's forces. If they cascade it will be directly into the Liberal column.

[DrGreenthumb]

The loss of 3 seats in NL might be a harbinger of worse news to come for Tories the evening of Oct. 14. There is a huge reservoir of potential strategic votes nationally (40%+) all stacked to the left of Harper's forces. If they cascade it will be directly into the Liberal column.

Not necessarily will everyone vote Liberal and that would be a bad strategy anyway, in some ridings like mine the NDP have the only realistic chance of defeating the conservatives. Everyone should go to anyonebutconservative.com and type their postal code into the widget. It will tell you the best strategic vote to defeat the conservative candidate in your riding. I encourage everyone to vote strategically to get rid of Harper. I am an NDP member but would vote Liberal in a heartbeat if I thought it would help get rid of Harper's social conservatives.

[blueblood]

Not necessarily will everyone vote Liberal and that would be a bad strategy anyway, in some ridings like mine the NDP have the only realistic chance of defeating the conservatives. Everyone should go to anyonebutconservative.com and type their postal code into the widget. It will tell you the best strategic vote to defeat the conservative candidate in your riding. I encourage everyone to vote strategically to get rid of Harper. I am an NDP member but would vote Liberal in a heartbeat if I thought it would help get rid of Harper's social conservatives.

Won't work in my riding...

[Topaz]

I'm doing a lot of research myself on this election by listening to the radio programs on c-pac, the daily political shows on TV, the newspapers, the political forums on the net, etc. I still think it'll be a minority for any one of the parties to date but if one of them does and says something negative, it will change. Harper doesn't seem to have his support in Quebec and I don't think he'll have the support in Ontario or the Atlantic provinces. Does anyone know what happens if two parties come in with the same number of seats???

[Rovik]

The loss of 3 seats in NL might be a harbinger of worse news to come for Tories the evening of Oct. 14. There is a huge reservoir of potential strategic votes nationally (40%+) all stacked to the left of Harper's forces. If they cascade it will be directly into the Liberal column.

Not necessarily. A lot of this support might go to the NDP, especially in ridings where they are seen of having a chance winning. I wouldn't be shocked if Liberal incumbents lose to NDP candidates especially in parts of BC and Ontario unless the Liberals have some sort of resurgence toward the end of the campaign. It could happen but I would be a tiny bit surprised.

In regards to Newfoundland, the Liberals have always done well traditionally so I wouldn't be surprised if they win up to six of the seven seats, but it also looks like the NDP will win at least one seat and maybe 2 (and the NDP haven't won a seat in Newfoundland in a long time). The ABC philosophy of Danny Williams has a played a role in a possible total collapse of the Conservatives but is not the only reason.

In my opinion, this is how Newfoundland seats will stack up (out of 7):

Liberals 4-6 seats

NDP 1-2 seats

Conservative 0-1 seat (only chance is Fabian Manning in the Avalon district)

Greens - a non-factor, a big reason is due to their opposition to the seal hunt

Edited October 5, 2008 by Rovik

[Vancouver King]

Does anyone know what happens if two parties come in with the same number of seats???

That's an easy one, Stephen Harper will simply bribe sufficient new MPs to break the tie.

[Vancouver King]

Not necessarily will everyone vote Liberal and that would be a bad strategy anyway, in some ridings like mine the NDP have the only realistic chance of defeating the conservatives. Everyone should go to anyonebutconservative.com and type their postal code into the widget. It will tell you the best strategic vote to defeat the conservative candidate in your riding. I encourage everyone to vote strategically to get rid of Harper. I am an NDP member but would vote Liberal in a heartbeat if I thought it would help get rid of Harper's social conservatives.

The softening Tory support over the past few days makes it increasingly unlikely they will achieve a majority and this, in turn, makes it 'safer' to follow ones first preference. That said, it is likely that 20% of the minor parties current support will end up with the main combatants - I suggest roughly 80% to Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Won't work in my riding...

I doubt your riding would change even if Harper was involved in a major sex scandal.

[jdobbin]

Not necessarily will everyone vote Liberal and that would be a bad strategy anyway, in some ridings like mine the NDP have the only realistic chance of defeating the conservatives. Everyone should go to anyonebutconservative.com and type their postal code into the widget. It will tell you the best strategic vote to defeat the conservative candidate in your riding. I encourage everyone to vote strategically to get rid of Harper. I am an NDP member but would vote Liberal in a heartbeat if I thought it would help get rid of Harper's social conservatives.

Are you sure that's the right URL?

[independent]

Are you sure that's the right URL?

http://anyonebutharper.ca/

[DrGreenthumb]

The softening Tory support over the past few days makes it increasingly unlikely they will achieve a majority and this, in turn, makes it 'safer' to follow ones first preference. That said, it is likely that 20% of the minor parties current support will end up with the main combatants - I suggest roughly 80% to Liberals.

They want us to think that voting strategically isn't important but we can't let them fool us. use the widget and lets elect a centre left coalition government. Its actually anyonebutharper.ca, sorry

http://anyonebutharper.ca/

[capricorn]

use the widget

That sounds so sexy, I'm tempted to try it myself.

[blueblood]

I doubt your riding would change even if Harper was involved in a major sex scandal.

Probably not, but it did change when Mulroney tried his constitutional pandering to Quebec.

[CrazeeEddie]

Wow, last election my riding was seriously split almost perfectly between the Liberals, NDPs and Conservatives...

[Visionseeker]

Does anyone know what happens if two parties come in with the same number of seats???

In the event of a tie, the incumbent PM gets first dibs. The situation becomes a little complicated though if he/she failed to win their seat in the election.

[Vancouver King]

They want us to think that voting strategically isn't important but we can't let them fool us. use the widget and lets elect a centre left coalition government. Its actually anyonebutharper.ca, sorry

http://anyonebutharper.ca/

ok, ok....the widget said I should vote for whoever I please since the Tories are not a factor here - this is David Emerson's old riding where the CPC drew 13% of the vote in 2006. However the omniscient widget did confirm something I suspected; a current dead heat here between the NDP and Liberals. If current national trends continue this seat will be a gain for the NDP.

[unspoken]

I'm still waiting for just one member of the media to have the guts to ask Danny Williams just how the heavily resource-based economy of NL will see less hurt from the Dion/May carbon tax or the Layton shut down the oil/tax the corporations to death plan. Harper's plan may not be ideal but it's still the best offer on the table for their economy.

Out of morbid curiosity I went to that site. Told me to vote for whoever I wanted as it wasn't a swing riding.

I also found the a great laugh on it. Just above the generator, under "About this site."

A non-partisan movement voting to win against Stephen Harper.

First, nice oxymoron in two statements the bold. Second, the wording could be a lot better, it just doesn't sound right or roll off the tongue very well.

Seems to me they didn't think that one through a whole lot.

[Who's Doing What?]

That's an easy one, Stephen Harper will simply bribe sufficient new MPs to break the tie.

lol

Crap. Riding is not a swing riding. Damn you Van Loan.