the election call

[cgarrett]

just curious what others think about the timing of the election being influenced by the upcoming u.s. elections?

irrespective of whether any associations between the canadian conservatives and u.s. republican parties in the minds of canadians are justified... has the fact that it is highly likely that the democrats will come to presidential power in november a motivation for calling an election here in canada in october?

in other words, could the outcome of the canadian election be much different if it was held november 5?

my suspicion is that the selected date for the canadian election has a great deal to do with any threatening outcome of the u.s. election.

Edited September 12, 2008 by cgarrett

[August1991]

just curious what others think about the timing of the election being influenced by the upcoming u.s. elections?

I wondered the same thing.

We have had recent federal elections in 1984, 1988, 2000 roughly coinciding with the US presidential elections.

I don't see any connection. In 1984, the incumbent party lost, in 1988 teh Conservatives won and in 2000, the Liberals won.

[Moonbox]

I think it's the polls more than anything.

[Ontario Loyalist]

There's obviously a number of factors, but the economy and the American election seems to be the most important. A year from now Obama will be president and the economy, apparently according to some, is really going to be bad off, which will mean a sure end to Harper and his Conservatives. A minority will mean another three years at least, and by the time the next fixed election date ( ) rolls around perhaps the economy will be rebounding and he can ride that to a majority.

[August1991]

There's obviously a number of factors, but the economy and the American election seems to be the most important. A year from now Obama will be president and the economy, apparently according to some, is really going to be bad off, which will mean a sure end to Harper and his Conservatives. A minority will mean another three years at least, and by the time the next fixed election date ( ) rolls around perhaps the economy will be rebounding and he can ride that to a majority.

I think you are wrong both on your predictions and in your analysis.

Harper went into this election because the polls were favourable and because the upcoming session would have been insufferable. The Canadian economy is doing reasonably well and even if the US is suffering a recession, it's an odd one. People are suffering paper losses but jobs and wages are still good.

As I noted above, I don't see any correlation between Canadian electoral results and US presidential elections. Do you?

As to your predictions, I have long predicted that McCain would be the next US president. Time will tell. I also predicted a minority government but given that Dion now only has four weeks to turn this around, I don't see him winning a minority. Given the situation in Quebec outside Montreal, a Tory majority seems increasingly likely. (I'm surprised to say that and I'm surprised at how weak Dion is as a candidate. I think he's trying to be something that he isn't - he's not natural.)

I have been wrong before. I thought Clinton would win the Democratic nomination and, as Dobbin likes to remind me, I thought the Republicans would keep their majorities in the 2006 Congressionals.

[BubberMiley]

I have been wrong before. I thought Clinton would win the Democratic nomination and, as Dobbin likes to remind me, I thought the Republicans would keep their majorities in the 2006 Congressionals.

You haven't predicted McCain would win for that long either. If memory serves, you predicted Giulliani was unstoppable in Florida.