Post Election Canada

[jdobbin]

With the destruction of the Liberals and probably bankruptcy and the party post election, it will be interesting to see what might happen with the political landscape.

The Conservatives are likely to be in for a four year haul but what about the other parties?

It may be that the Bloc is one of the other parties headed for extinction. They will likely have a new leader no matter what the results of the election are. It would be surprising if they retained the same amount of seats going out of the election as they did going in. Would they under a new leader find relevance? As long as nationalist instincts don't flare, probably not. Warning to Harper: Don't open the constitution unless you want to find out.

The Greens will be looking to increase their percentage and somehow, somewhere land a seat. I think that will come in a byelection. It is just too hard to break in during national elections.

The NDP will probably be a shade under Official Opposition status. The Liberals ought to retain Official Opposition it but the party will be a shattered skeleton of itself. Expect possible defections to the Tories, NDP or Greens. If the party slips below Official Opposition status, expect the destruction to be even more rapid.

The NDP will probably gain a few seats, possibly a jump to 38 seats. It will probably be enough to keep Layton in the job but the party will be trying to appeal to other parties to support them in becoming Official Opposition.

Depending on how strong the Tories are in the 2012 election, we might see the Tories facing off against a fractured and probably less than full slate Liberal party, a stronger NDP party and a Green party with a few seats.

Unless economic woes or a disastrous foreign or domestic policy agenda intercedes, I expect the Tories will handily win another majority. The Liberals will be finished and the the NDP and Greens will have to decide if they want to join forces and be a Greens Democrats party.

Former Liberal party MPs, Senators and supporters will have to decide whether to go to other parties, merge, stay independent or just die off. In any case, they will probably not make it to the election thereafter.

Edited September 12, 2008 by jdobbin

[Moonbox]

The Liberal Party may be bankrupt but it is far from gone and there are enough of you around to make sure it stays for a long time to come. Maybe it transforms itself into something more relevant or maybe it just has a few quiet years but I think your scenario is getting a little too ahead of itself.

[M.Dancer]

I don't see the NDP gaining one seat and I hear that even Oliva Chows riding may slip to the.....LIBERALS...

My riding of St Pauls may be taken for granted but if the signs are a sign, it looks like that may be a tight race.

[fellowtraveller]

How droll. jdobbin plays rope-a dope.

Still, some of it is possible.

At the leader level:

The Liberals will dump Dion at the earliest seemly moment, which may be 12-18 months before they can find the scratch to run a convention.

Harper, win ior lose, has his job for the foreseeable future.

Duceppe has been dead and waiting to fall over if they'll just give him the chance,

May means nothing except a way to help the Tories win seats. Zero seats for Green.

Layton will lose his job to Pat Martin unless he pickes up 10 seats or so. He deserves to get dumped if he cannot pick up many seats, the opportunity is nearly unprecedented.

[jdobbin]

The Liberal Party may be bankrupt but it is far from gone and there are enough of you around to make sure it stays for a long time to come. Maybe it transforms itself into something more relevant or maybe it just has a few quiet years but I think your scenario is getting a little too ahead of itself.

Having seen it in Manitoba, I think you can say we have been heading in this direction for some time. The bankruptcy will make it hard for the Liberals to run a full slate. They certainly wouldn't have the wherewithal the run a full campaign. It would probably be the end of the party.

[jdobbin]

Still, some of it is possible.

At the leader level:

The Liberals will dump Dion at the earliest seemly moment, which may be 12-18 months before they can find the scratch to run a convention.

I think Dion will resign most certainly. There will an interim leader but I doubt the party will have money for a leadership convention with other debts hanging over it. They will go bankrupt first. How they have a leadership convention is beyond me. They might just have a membership phone ballot.

[Moonbox]

it's a pretty funny idea to think about. With that said, I think you're right that the Liberals will sort of fly off the radar for a good number of years if they get whomped this election. They'll be back when they have a real issue to campaign on.

[jdobbin]

it's a pretty funny idea to think about. With that said, I think you're right that the Liberals will sort of fly off the radar for a good number of years if they get whomped this election. They'll be back when they have a real issue to campaign on.

I keep hearing that but I think it will be like Manitoba. The party will fade away and most likely cease to exist.

[Smallc]

I keep hearing that but I think it will be like Manitoba. The party will fade away and most likely cease to exist.

Didn't everyone think that would happen before?

[jdobbin]

Didn't everyone think that would happen before?

How do you mean?

[Moonbox]

I keep hearing that but I think it will be like Manitoba. The party will fade away and most likely cease to exist.

I just think it's really unfortunate for the Liberals to have chosen Dion as their leader. Before he became the Liberal leader they were still a very relevant party with a very real base of support. From what I've seen he's shown himself to be the worst man for the job in a tough time for the Liberals and those two factors together have killed the Liberals just like Mulroney and then Kim Campbell killed the Progressive Conservatives. With that said, even IF the Liberals cease to exist as a party, another right/left fence straddling government will pop up to fill the void much like the Reform and Canadian Allliance replaced the incompetent and defunct Progressive Conservatives.

A new leader and a fresh face will do the Liberals a TON of good.

[TCCK]

All the Liberals need to grown in numbers again is a lot of KOOL-AID.

Too bad it kills all that drink it.

Once bitten, twice shy, I have been bitten too many times by the Federal Liberals and I do not want to see any of the people in the East go along like blind lemmings to the Kool-Aid that the Liberals are offering this election.

Think hard, do your research and you will come to the same conclusion as me: DION = LIBERAL which means there is a scandal, lies and bribery in the air!!!

WHy are all you Easterners so afraid of a Western Canadian Prime Minister ?????? BC and Alberta are doing awesome, the rest of Canada is already going into the recession like the USA. Maybe it is the clean air and beauty of nature out here that makes Westerners better leaders!!!

Remember > Stay away from the Kool-Aid!!!

[Smallc]

BC and Alberta are doing awesome, the rest of Canada is already going into the recession like the USA.

You really do have no idea what your talking about, do you?

[TCCK]

You really do have no idea what your talking about, do you?

Oh no, I just have a National Company that does (well lets just say a good dollar in business every year) and BC and ALBERTA (on par with last year) are great provinces for my business, I cannot say that for the rest of the country right now. Ontario is down 43% from last year, and we avoided any business in Quebec because of their ridiculous laws on language, signs and taxes.

You do not know who I am and I will keep it that way BUT the Liberals will not be good for this country mark my words.

Go ahead drink the Kool-Aid, I will be here to say I told you so day after day after day until the next election is called and I will have a detailed journal of ALL the crap Dion and the Liberal government put us through so you short term memory Liberals will be forced to deal with the facts.

THE FACT IS LIBERALS ARE NOT HONEST, they will say whatever they have to currently so they get your vote and then being a Liberal they forget they even made the promise and STAB YOU IN THE BACK!!!

(Personal experience with Chretien will always be sour with me! NEVER AGAIN!!)

[Who's Doing What?]

Think hard, do your research and you will come to the same conclusion as me: DION = LIBERAL which means there is a scandal, lies and bribery in the air!!!

scandal - election finances, emerson, bernier, cadman....

lies - The party is based on a lie. I actually saw MacKay promise a fellow original CPC party memeber that if his backers for leader put their support behind him he "would not" merge the CPC with the Alliance. "Although Peter MacKay campaigned against a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance Party, in the end he was instrumental..."

http://canadaonline.about.com/od/conservat...petermackay.htm

bribery - cadman

[TCCK]

bribery - cadman

Any yet when Chuck Cadman was asked directly to his face if he was bribed he said NO. (Rest in Peace Chuck!) He did what he did to make a statement to the party, was it heard????

[jdobbin]

Any yet when Chuck Cadman was asked directly to his face if he was bribed he said NO. (Rest in Peace Chuck!) He did what he did to make a statement to the party, was it heard????

This is not exactly true. He repeated his claims in public on a radio talk show and to his family. This has been gone over quite a bit in this forum. His wife was the was the one that asserted that Cadman mentioned a $1 million insurance policy.

[jdobbin]

I just think it's really unfortunate for the Liberals to have chosen Dion as their leader. Before he became the Liberal leader they were still a very relevant party with a very real base of support. From what I've seen he's shown himself to be the worst man for the job in a tough time for the Liberals and those two factors together have killed the Liberals just like Mulroney and then Kim Campbell killed the Progressive Conservatives. With that said, even IF the Liberals cease to exist as a party, another right/left fence straddling government will pop up to fill the void much like the Reform and Canadian Allliance replaced the incompetent and defunct Progressive Conservatives.

A new leader and a fresh face will do the Liberals a TON of good.

I don't think it would have mattered too much who was leader for the Liberals. The infighting and the lack of money would still have been an issue.

I'm not so sure that a new party would fill the void so much as the remaining two or three parties would try to appeal to former Liberals. The example in Manitoba is basically two parties with the Liberals hanging on by a thread.

[Who's Doing What?]

Any yet when Chuck Cadman was asked directly to his face if he was bribed he said NO. (Rest in Peace Chuck!) He did what he did to make a statement to the party, was it heard????

Harper has admittied he knew an offer was being made. ANY offer of reward for a vote in the HoC is bribery.

Just because they didn't come to Cadman with an envelope of cash, a la sponsorship, doesn't mean it wasn't a bribe.

[M.Dancer]

Harper has admittied he knew an offer was being made. ANY offer of reward for a vote in the HoC is bribery.

Just because they didn't come to Cadman with an envelope of cash, a la sponsorship, doesn't mean it wasn't a bribe.

An offer to cover your election expenses is hardly a reward.

[jbg]

Having seen it in Manitoba, I think you can say we have been heading in this direction for some time. The bankruptcy will make it hard for the Liberals to run a full slate. They certainly wouldn't have the wherewithal the run a full campaign. It would probably be the end of the party.

Is there a bankruptcy petition? Can you send me a copy?

[Wild Bill]

Harper has admittied he knew an offer was being made. ANY offer of reward for a vote in the HoC is bribery.

Just because they didn't come to Cadman with an envelope of cash, a la sponsorship, doesn't mean it wasn't a bribe.

So are you equating offers to cover campaign debts with handing out money in a Montreal restaurant and building innumerable canoe museums in Shawinigate, complete with golf courses and leaning on bank managers to give a dicey loan, to the point of getting him fired?

There's a need for some perspective here...

[Mr.Canada]

A very honest post jdobbin. With many plausible theories.

Thank you.

[Riverwind]

This is not exactly true. He repeated his claims in public on a radio talk show and to his family. This has been gone over quite a bit in this forum. His wife was the was the one that asserted that Cadman mentioned a $1 million insurance policy.

His wife was just elected as a conservative MP. That is actually what settles the issue for me. If Cadman's wife really believed that something unethical occurred she would have abandoned the party - she didn't.

[Who's Doing What?]

All the Liberals need to grown in numbers again is a lot of KOOL-AID.

I guess they will have to buy some from the CPC. I hear they have cornered the market on the stuff.

Too bad it kills all that drink it.

My condolences. How much longer do you have?

Once bitten, twice shy, I have been bitten too many times by the Federal Liberals and I do not want to see any of the people in the East go along like blind lemmings to the Kool-Aid that the Liberals are offering this election.

The people in the East are Lemmings?

Next you are going to ask why Easterners don't trust western politicians.

Think hard, do your research and you will come to the same conclusion as me: DION = LIBERAL which means there is a scandal, lies and bribery in the air!!!

Exactly! Why I remember things like Cadman, the in-and-out funding scheme, income trusts..... oops. Mixed them up again.

WHy are all you Easterners so afraid of a Western Canadian Prime Minister ??????

I knew you were going to ask that.

BC and Alberta are doing awesome, the rest of Canada is already going into the recession like the USA. Maybe it is the clean air and beauty of nature out here that makes Westerners better leaders!!!

Alberta is doing awesome eh? Have you built housing for all those Oil workers yet?

I am sure the Tim Hortons workers love their $16/hr, and their over inflated cost of living.

I heard Calgary has the highest office space rent per sq ft in the country.

The price of Oil is down over $60 a barrel. How much longer before it become unprofitable to keep working the oil sands?

I also keep hearing that Sask. has the strongest economy in the country right now.

Over inflated values (and egos) always crash the hardest. Ofourse the rest of the country will be here to bail Alberta out once again when times get tough in the west.

We have already saved the cattle industry of AB twice in my lifetime.

Remember > Stay away from the Kool-Aid!!!

We kind of have to, the CPC has control of it all.