U.S. Economic News

[sharkman]

On 1/19/2023 at 9:08 PM, Moonbox said:

So far, if you add it all up, we're still seeing employment go UP, and unemployment go DOWN.  That's the magic of mathematics, brother.  

What does it mean, I wonder?  It's perhaps not business as usual, but if we're continuing to see job growth and inflation is starting to go down noticeably, you may not be getting the financial armaggeddon you were hoping for.   

Let's take a look at some current headlines, and see what the Iraqi Minister of Propaganda has to say about them: 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-billion-reit-february-2023-03-01/

"Credit Suisse downgraded its rating of Blackstone's stock to underperform in November partly because of the rise in investor redemptions from BREIT. Blackstone's shares were down 0.25% at $90.57 per share in afternoon trading on Wednesday. The stock lost 43% of its value last year.

Blackstone has been exercising its right to block investors' withdrawals since November last year after requests hit a preset 5% net asset value of BREIT, which is marketed to mostly high net worth individuals."

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wealthy-clients-pulled-more-than-100-billion-from-credit-suisse-in-the-fourth-quarter-11675934028

"Beleaguered Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse on Thursday revealed that wealthy clients pulled 92.7 billion francs ($101 billion) out of the bank in the fourth quarter.

Credit Suisse CSGN, +8.33% CS, +6.69% said two-thirds of the net asset outflows were in October, at a time of intense social-media speculation around its ability to survive. Credit Suisse has since announced a sweeping restructuring plan."

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackstone-defaults-562-mln-nordic-property-backed-cmbs-bloomberg-news-2023-03-02/

"March 2 (Reuters) - Blackstone Inc (BX.N) has defaulted on a 531 million euro ($562.5 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Finnish company Sponda Oy, as rising interest rates hit European property values.

The private equity firm sought an extension from the bondholders to repay the debt, but they voted against it, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Shares of the private-equity firm fell 1.6% after news of the default was first reported by Bloomberg."

 

This is obviously not good news, and anyone, like moonbox, who wants to pretend that this isn't happening right before our eyes is blind.  Then we hear yesterday that Nordstrom's is pulling out of Canada, leaving 2500 people out of work.  We are in for a major correction, and anyone buying a house right now before prices plunge in Canada is what's called the dumb money. 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by sharkman

[sharkman]

How about this headline to drive it home to moon guy, the Iraqi MInister:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-prices-could-tumble-175620352.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACZ0STMjmbtVXq5IfI6pdsgC5FjViEEYe3QRU5FDv5z3ZCAeQfCt1GVKEoXps1rBJGHdzMROqQZ_xtAcDJhdTIpvF9GT3G2zRrHpjXNnfI40jWT6HzHkwDVByGmrZ76_t_YQ5-Be-ZX_8G84mw1hpAKSrZGj3XKedfcv6axAleEt

"[I]f the observed price-to-rent ratio grows at an explosive rate relative to its fundamental-based ratio estimated with long-term interest rate and rent growth data, the bubble hypothesis merits attention," they said."

• "The possibility of a domino effect, where investors pull out of international housing seeking safety and liquidity elsewhere, also raises concerns of spillovers beyond Germany or the US to the global economy."

 

 

 

[Moonbox]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:29 PM, sharkman said:

Then we hear yesterday that Nordstrom's is pulling out of Canada, leaving 2500 people out of work.  We are in for a major correction, and anyone buying a house right now before prices plunge in Canada is what's called the dumb money. 

Oh no!  Not Nordstroms!  What's going to happen!???

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-canadian-economy-added-22000-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rate-steady/

[sharkman]

Yeah?  Well let’s see what happens when this contagion works through the economy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-tumbles-for-a-second-day-weighing-on-the-bank-sector-again.html

• Shares of Silicon Valley Bank, tumbled for a second day Friday and weighed on the entire banking sector again on concern that more banks would incur heavy losses on their bond portfolios.
• Concern among founders and venture capital investors spiked earlier this week after Silicon Valley Bank surprised the market by announcing late Wednesday it needed to raise $2.25 billion in stock.

 

[sharkman]

SVB had holdings of other banks.  Apparently 90% of their total accounts were uninsured.  You know what that means folks?  They are going to be out of luck.  Here’s some more thoughts:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11847965/Financial-markets-brace-following-Silicon-Valley-Bank-death-spiral-bank-stocks-50.html

“The ripple effect has already hit similar institutions, such as New York's Signature Bank, which saw its share price plummet 23 percent before trading was halted when the news of SVB's demise came in. 

The share price of First Republic, the 16th largest bank in America, also crashed by 14.8 percent and Pac West dropped by 37.9 percent. 

University of San Diego finance professor Dan Roccato cautioned that while SVB was 'a niche bank', more firms are likely to face troubling times ahead.”

 

Have you ever heard of the phrase, never let a crisis go to waste?  Bill Clinton’s favourite saying, and governments the world over love to employ this.  When some crisis or other happens, that’s the time to force through an “emergency” bill or change, because people will be fearful and more accepting of a change that is said to help them.

Think big, now.  What financial change do the governments have waiting in the wings right now, ready for an emergency?  

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by sharkman
Grammar

[sharkman]

On 3/10/2023 at 7:40 AM, Moonbox said:

Oh no!  Not Nordstroms!  What's going to happen!???

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-canadian-economy-added-22000-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rate-steady/

And another bank bites the dust, moonbat.  Makes one wonder how the employment numbers will be affected with these bank failures.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html

U.S. regulators on Sunday shut down New York-based Signature Bank, a big lender in the crypto industry, in a bid to prevent the spreading banking crisis.

…

Signature is one of the main banks to the cryptocurrency industry, the biggest one next to Silvergate, which announced its impending liquidation last week. It had a market value of $4.4 billion as of Friday after a 40% sell-off this year, according to FactSet.

[Moonbox]

Who cares man?  NORDSTROM'S IS GONE FROM CANADA!

[sharkman]

On 3/13/2023 at 7:26 AM, Moonbox said:

Who cares man?  NORDSTROM'S IS GONE FROM CANADA!

2500 people and families that lost an income.  This may mean nothing to you, but it means something to their lives.

[Moonbox]

Of course it does, but then Canada added 22,000 incomes (net) in February of 2023, so that means more to me, as it should to you, unless you're just trawling the internet for doom porn and cherry picking literally anything you can find that sounds bad off twitter/reddit etc. to post here.  

[Moonbox]

@sharkman

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nasdaq-michael-burry-wrong-sell-dip-buyers-big-short-2023-3

 

[sharkman]

In October’22, the US dollar peaked, at a value of 1.13 and change.  Today it’s 1.01 and change.  
With BRICS now stronger than ever, and looking to start their own precious metal backed currency(with its own “Swift” like system), the dollar will most likely continue its way down. 

What we Canadians should be asking ourselves is, why has our dollar not grown in comparison to a falling USD?  Instead it’s stated in the same trading range, which means it’s getting weaker as well.

Edited April 4, 2023 by sharkman

[sharkman]

And here’s a story that reports the exact same performance of the USD in the last 6 months.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-dollar-is-under-fire-from-rival-nations-what-happens-to-markets-if-the-greenback-loses-its-world-dominance-d48ad5e6

 

 

[sharkman]

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/first-republic-stock-falls-after-losing-half-deposits/wcm/05ed2678-c960-4b27-99be-44a19effcb72/amp/

“First Republic Bank faces an uphill challenge to regrow its business after losing more than half its deposits, analysts said on April 25, as shares sank almost 30 per cent in early trading after the bank reported its first-quarter earnings.”

 

…”The dour report was also dragging shares of other regional lenders lower before the bell. PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, Zions Bancorp and Charles Schwab Corp. down between one per cent and four per cent.

First Republic has been reeling in recent weeks as it navigates the twin challenge of assuring customers their deposits remain safe and investors that it has liquidity to emerge out of the crisis.”

 

Another US bank is found to be struggling with major losses.  Maybe they should enlist Moonbox, the Iraqi Minister of Propaganda, to save them.  Since he saw this coming so well…

[Moonbox]

On 2/6/2023 at 2:24 PM, sharkman said:

Sorry but this is just more huey. You need to also explain away Michael Burry(his last tweet from last week, was, “sell.”).  And Jeremy Grantham.  There are more, but let’s start there, because you’re such a busy guy.

I'm still waiting for comments on this:

That you face-plant like this so consistently is why nobody is paying attention or responding to you.  My role as Iraqi Minister of Propaganda compels me to speak up, but you are so absurdly clueless and misinformed that your foolishness can just sit here and speak for itself. 

 

 

[sharkman]

So Michael Burry tweets over a dozen warnings in the last two years that he was mostly right about but you ignore.

Then he posts a single recantation, and you’re all over it.  I don’t have time to hold your hand these days, I’m too busy monitoring bank failures:

 

 

[sharkman]

6 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I'm still waiting for comments on this:

That you face-plant like this so consistently is why nobody is paying attention or responding to you.  My role as Iraqi Minister of Propaganda compels me to speak up, but you are so absurdly clueless and misinformed that your foolishness can just sit here and speak for itself. 

 

 

And while you’re waiting, here’s another eye catching story about commercial real estate being down 80% in the jewel of California, San Fran.  The Wall Street Journal, no less.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-commercial-real-estate-office-buildings-471742ea?mod=djemalertNEWS

This is how dire things have become in San Francisco, an extreme form of a challenge nationwide. Nearly every large U.S. city is struggling, to some degree, with reduced office-worker turnout since the pandemic spurred remote work. No market was hit harder than San Francisco, for reasons including its high costs, reliance on a tech industry quick to embrace hybrid work, and quality-of-life issues such as crime and homelessness.

 

[Moonbox]

8 hours ago, sharkman said:

So Michael Burry tweets over a dozen warnings in the last two years that he was mostly right about but you ignore.

Michael Burry tweets all sorts of things, and sometimes he's right, but over the last 15 years he's mostly been wrong.  

8 hours ago, sharkman said:

Then he posts a single recantation, and you’re all over it.  I don’t have time to hold your hand these days, I’m too busy monitoring bank failures:

No, I'm laughing at you because you watched the Big Short, saw this on your Twitter Doomer feed, and have since been cluelessly screeching about what Michael Burry tweeted (even though you never actually understood what he meant or what he was thinking). 

Now even Michael Burry acknowledged he was wrong...again.  ?

[sharkman]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Michael Burry tweets all sorts of things, and sometimes he's right, but over the last 15 years he's mostly been wrong.  

No, I'm laughing at you because you watched the Big Short, saw this on your Twitter Doomer feed, and have since been cluelessly screeching about what Michael Burry tweeted (even though you never actually understood what he meant or what he was thinking). 

Now even Michael Burry acknowledged he was wrong...again.  ?

This is really weak, even for you.  15 years, eh?  You’ve been tracking Burry all along, yada yada yada.  He tweets all sorts of things?  

At least try to make your BS SOUND like something other than a used car salesman.  This is why I call you a propaganda minister.  

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, sharkman said:

This is really weak, even for you.  15 years, eh?  You’ve been tracking Burry all along, yada yada yada.  He tweets all sorts of things?  

Tracking him?  No, but he's a celebrity investor and I knew who he was before the Big Short came out, which you certainly didn't, did you? 

1 hour ago, sharkman said:

At least try to make your BS SOUND like something other than a used car salesman.  This is why I call you a propaganda minister.  

You call me the Iraqi Minister of Propaganda because you're regurgitating doom-porn off of your twitter feed like a zombie, and you get frustrated when I show you have near-zero understanding or perspective on of any of it.  

It did offer inspiration for my profile pic though, so thanks for that.  ?

 

[sharkman]

Okay, good to know moonbat.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-first-republic-bank-shares-gain-on-hopes-of-rescue-deal/

 

…If the San Francisco-based lender falls into receivership, it would be the third U.S. bank to collapse since March. First Republic said earlier this week its deposits had slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter.

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by sharkman

[sharkman]

And it’s official, First Republic Bank fails.  That’s 3 US banks in 2 months.  When was the last time 3 US banks failed in 2 months?  
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-regulators-seize-first-republic-and-sell-substantially-all-assets-to-jpmorgan-in-largest-bank-failure-since-2008-crisis-094604500.html

The fall of the $229 billion First Republic makes it the biggest casualty yet of the banking system turmoil that began in March, larger than either Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank.Seattle's Washington Mutual, which went under with $307 billion in assets in September 2008, is still the largest bank failure in US history.

Edited May 1, 2023 by sharkman

[sharkman]

Another week, another bank:

 

 

[sharkman]

This is a weird story out of Britain.  The LSE was down for the most part yesterday.  The weird part is it was the anniversary of Black Monday.  Also weird is the fact that blue chip stocks were still able to be traded.
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/lse-says-investigating-incident-some-shares-not-trading-2023-10-19/#:~:text=LONDON%2C Oct 19 (Reuters),chip shares suffered no interruptions.

 

 

[sharkman]

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/11/19/jpmorgan-chase-wells-fargo-and-bofa-hit-with-negative-ratings-outlook-as-moodys-says-us-government-has-weaker-capacity-to-support-big-banks/amp/
 

This is like an amber flashing light.  Some will heed it, some will accelerate into the unknown.

“The agency also said that the downgrade of the banks’ ratings was in line with a previous downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, which was also bumped down from stable to negative.

In a research note released last quarter, Moody’s said that US banks were facing “significant risk” of deposit flight due to interest rate and asset-liability management (ALM) risks.“

 

 

[sharkman]

I’ve not been updating economic threads like this as it seemed like the coming recession wasn’t going to occur until closer to the US election.  So yesterday the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all floundering and down in a big way.  TSE as well.  Remember, these markets are mostly rearward looking, responding to what has happened.  

And this morning things are looking grim as well.  US Job reports were only 110,000, missing the mark and causing an uptick in the official Unemployment rate.   Right now the DOW is down over 700 points, and the TSE is down over 500!  That’s over 2%.

Intel laid off 15,000 and the tech sector is hurting big time. It looks like the Magnificent 7 are no longer able to hold up the markets.