Canada won't slip into recession

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says although Canada's real gross domestic product edged down in the first quarter of 2008, he doesn't think the economy will slip into a recession.

Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed real GDP dropped 0.1 per cent in the first quarter -- the first decline in nearly five years.

"We are well positioned to weather this period of global economic uncertainly," Flaherty told reporters Friday.

"Canada's economic fundamentals are solid."

And we believe him because of the outstanding job he did in Ontario?

[Shakeyhands]

reminds of the line.. " Everything is fine.... don't look behind the curtain!!!!" These old Harris boys really frighten me.

[Fortunata]

reminds of the line.. " Everything is fine.... don't look behind the curtain!!!!" These old Harris boys really frighten me.

Mikey must be on a long weekend so I'll do it for him ... there ya go with the *scary scary scary* again.

But seriously, this government is starting to look positively recycled.

[Wild Bill]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

And we believe him because of the outstanding job he did in Ontario?

He did do an outstanding job in Ontario! Ask any of us who lived it! Except for Torontonians, of course, who firmly believe the sun shines out their butt.

I remember folks walking around with T-shirts saying "I survived Bob Rae!". I tried desperately to find one but somehow never got around to sourcing one.

Ontario when Jim took over was like Calgary when the NEP hit.

[Topaz]

Last night on the news it was saying that its a real possibility that Canada will be in a recession before the US because of the manufacturing sector.

[JaysFan]

reminds of the line.. " Everything is fine.... don't look behind the curtain!!!!" These old Harris boys really frighten me.

Reminds me of this guy

He did do an outstanding job in Ontario! Ask any of us who lived it! Except for Torontonians, of course, who firmly believe the sun shines out their butt.

I'm a 905er. Flaherty's lies and failures to manage this province's finances during a time of growth are worse than the Rae days.

The Conservatives sale of the 407 alone should have been enough to have told you that.

In case you forgot about that outstanding financial deal

Yes, Flaherty sat on the board which negotiated and approved that sale...

Only one of Flaherty's moves which led to the slaughter of his party's number of sitting MP's which was the election that instilled Dalton as Premier...

Now that, was outstanding!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/ontariovotes2003/

Edited May 31, 2008 by JaysFan

[madmax]

Last night on the news it was saying that its a real possibility that Canada will be in a recession before the US because of the manufacturing sector.

I find this very hard to agree with.

The US is having a financial and housing crises nationwide. They have a manufacturing base in the Northern States bleeding jobs on the same rate as Ontario. It is often the same companies relocating the work, they aren't going under.

Manufacturing is 12% across Canada and 16% in Ontario, and yes it is bleeding badly, in all facits, although people often mistake Manufacturing to be "auto". That is a bad mistake.

The Omens aren't good for Ontario or for many manufacturers, but for the trickle down effect to happen, and people to actually become concerned is still years away.

The other sectors are strong, this is a fact, and this is creating the illlusion that all is well. It is not. The sector needs to have a plan based upon Retention.

So, while things aren't looking great in Ontario/Quebec regarding manufacturing, the chances of us hitting a recession before the US is unlikely. Previous history indicates that Canada has hit the recession first. I don't see it this time, because things are so bleak in the US.

But that is just my opinion.

[Bryan]

If there is one post that the CPC should have made sure to put an Alberta conservative in, it was finance. I understand the nature of politics is the CPC will have to give the east some positions they may not have really "earned" in order to broaden the base if they ever want a majority. But Ontario conservatives are all too often just Liberals wearing blue suits. We already had that with the PCs. Look what happened to them? Why would the CPC think that would go over now?

You have to be more moderate than Reform was, I get that, but for god's sake, at least show good fiscal management. If you are not fiscally conservative, you have no business having the word "conservative" in the name of your party.

Edited June 3, 2008 by Bryan

[Shakeyhands]

If there is one post that the CPC should have made sure to put an Alberta conservative in, it was finance. I understand the nature of politics is the CPC will have to give the east some positions they may not have really "earned" in order to broaden the base if they ever want a majority. But Ontario conservatives are all too often just Liberals wearing blue suits. We already had that with the PCs. Look what happened to them? Why would the CPC think that would go over now?

You have to be more moderate than Reform was, I get that, but for god's sake, at least show good fiscal management. If you are not fiscally conservative, you have no business having the word "conservative" in the name of your party.

You know, the funny thing is that most Liberals have absolutely no issue with fiscal conservatism. Food for thought.

[madmax]

If there is one post that the CPC should have made sure to put an Alberta conservative in, it was finance. I understand the nature of politics is the CPC will have to give the east some positions they may not have really "earned"

I am pretty certain that Alberta has alot of Dead Wood CPC MPs. IIRC Stockwell Day was a lightweight Conservative. Had something to do with finance too in Alberta.

Flaherty isn't a Liberal by any means. He is a very right wing Conservative. And he is not very bright. He puts ideology first. And his biggest gaffes, have the support of the Prime Minister. A finance Minister and Prime Minister share their own poop.

That is not to suggest their aren't capable bright MPs from Alberta not in Cabinet.

But to flag Flaherty off as a Liberal is absurd and shows your ignorance of the Minister of Finance.

Edited June 3, 2008 by madmax

[White Doors]

Not sure why everyone is attacking Flaherty here. I agree, as do most economists, that Canada will not fall into recession.

Why all the hate for Flaherty saying that?

Because he is a tory? how childish.

[madmax]

Not sure why everyone is attacking Flaherty here. I agree, as do most economists, that Canada will not fall into recession.

I think he is a blowhard. I don't think he is an economist. And yes even a blowhard can recite an economic prediction.

Why all the hate for Flaherty saying that?

Because he is a tory? how childish.

Because he is from Ontario, if you read the posts of CPC posters.

Not sure if these reasons are more childish then mine.

[Wild Bill]

I am pretty certain that Alberta has alot of Dead Wood CPC MPs. IIRC Stockwell Day was a lightweight Conservative. Had something to do with finance too in Alberta.

Flaherty isn't a Liberal by any means. He is a very right wing Conservative. And he is not very bright. He puts ideology first. And his biggest gaffes, have the support of the Prime Minister. A finance Minister and Prime Minister share their own poop.

That is not to suggest their aren't capable bright MPs from Alberta not in Cabinet.

But to flag Flaherty off as a Liberal is absurd and shows your ignorance of the Minister of Finance.

Nothing wrong with putting ideology first! As long as you understand the role of ideology.

Ideology is not a catechism. It's not a rulebook that you quote very literally and apply even when you don't understand what's going on.

It's a philosophy, a manner of thinking. It's a tool to help you decide what's positive and appropriate as a reaction to any given situation.

Again, it's not a "lookup table" of instructions for the simple and ignorant to dodge having to make an intelligent decision. However, it can be a great tool in the hands of the intelligent.

That being said, I will admit that perhaps Flaherty is a bit challenged...

[White Doors]

I think he is a blowhard. I don't think he is an economist. And yes even a blowhard can recite an economic prediction.

Because he is from Ontario, if you read the posts of CPC posters.

Not sure if these reasons are more childish then mine.

So why not start a thread on why you hate Flaherty?

This thread was about Canada not slipping into recession and his statement that he thought we were not going to slip into one. Do you have any comment on that?

[madmax]

So why not start a thread on why you hate Flaherty?

This thread was about Canada not slipping into recession and his statement that he thought we were not going to slip into one. Do you have any comment on that?

Yes, read the 7th post (AGAIN) right after the posting by Jaysfan.

Edited June 3, 2008 by madmax

[Bryan]

Flaherty isn't a Liberal by any means. He is a very right wing Conservative.

Socially, perhaps. Fiscally, obviously not.

[jdobbin]

Socially, perhaps. Fiscally, obviously not.

I have no idea what he is like socially as a conservative but I do know that anyone who blows past their spending guidelines each budget is no fiscal conservative.

[madmax]

Nothing wrong with putting ideology first! As long as you understand the role of ideology.

Ideology is not a catechism. It's not a rulebook that you quote very literally and apply even when you don't understand what's going on.

It's a philosophy, a manner of thinking. It's a tool to help you decide what's positive and appropriate as a reaction to any given situation.

Again, it's not a "lookup table" of instructions for the simple and ignorant to dodge having to make an intelligent decision. However, it can be a great tool in the hands of the intelligent.

That being said, I will admit that perhaps Flaherty is a bit challenged...

I agree with your statement in it's entirety.

[madmax]

I have no idea what he is like socially as a conservative but I do know that anyone who blows past their spending guidelines each budget is no fiscal conservative.

Ok. Better I address JDobbin, Bryans, and Wild Bills all at once. Because all of you are correct now that I relook at your comments.

Flaherty talks loudly (Thus Blowhard) like a fiscal conservative. It is hard core ideology he speaks.

However his actions are questionable, and track record doesn't back the talk. The fiscally poor results are not because he is a closet Liberal (the last Liberals where fiscally Prudent for 13 years), but more because of his competency with the file.

I have no problem seeing him replaced with a better qualified candidate. The current government should be hanging their hat on their ability to manage the budget.

Tommy Douglas had balanced budgets and budget surpluses......

the Douglas government slowly paid off the huge public debt left by the previous Liberal government, and created a budget surplus for the Saskatchewan government. Coupled with a federal government promise in 1959 to give even more money for medical care, this paved the way for Douglas's most notable achievement, the introduction of universal medicare legislation in 1961

Must be something in the water out west....

Edited June 4, 2008 by madmax

[Bryan]

Tommy Douglas had balanced budgets and budget surpluses......

Again, illustrating the difference between Ontario conservatives, and western conservatives. Ontario conservatives are all too often conservative in name only. As a westerner who IS a conservative, it's infuriating. The Reform Party I whole-heartedly endorsed. I had big hopes that the CPC would turn out to be a real conservative national party, but this is turning into the same scenario as before where we have two liberal parties: one called Liberal that is fiscally prudent, and one called Conservative that is fiscally inept.

[madmax]

Again, illustrating the difference between Ontario conservatives, and western conservatives. Ontario conservatives are all too often conservative in name only. As a westerner who IS a conservative, it's infuriating. The Reform Party I whole-heartedly endorsed. I had big hopes that the CPC would turn out to be a real conservative national party, but this is turning into the same scenario as before where we have two liberal parties: one called Liberal that is fiscally prudent, and one called Conservative that is fiscally inept.

I edited out part of my Reform comments because I thought it would confuse things. I am glad you brought it forward. I believe that the Reign of fiscally prudent Liberals occurred because of the Pressure put on by the Reform Party. I believe this (poor budgeting & flip flops)is a Flaherty problem. But I do believe CPC has moved away from its Reform Roots.

Edited June 4, 2008 by madmax

[sharkman]

(the last Liberals where fiscally Prudent for 13 years), but more because of his competency with the file.

Tommy Douglas had balanced budgets and budget surpluses......

Must be something in the water out west....

The Liberals could be described as many things over their time at the helm, but fiscally prudent is not one of them. And you said this within a short time of scolding me for being off topic on another thread for bringing up the Liberal's gun registry, HR management and helicopter contract cancellation which together wasted over 3 billion dollars. And I haven't even mentioned Adscam. That is not a record of fiscal prudence.

Comparing what someone did(Tommy Douglas) over 50 years ago when our national debt and government programs were so different than today is not useful.

The situation Canada finds itself in is quite challenging. Our dollar rising to parity with the US dollar makes 80% of our exports too expensive. I'm sure this is a big reason why the vehicle manufacturing jobs are disappearing, on top of the shift to non-gas guzzlers. On top of this, our main trading partner, the US, has a weak economy, and consumers there are not buying as much as they grapple with the mortgage crisis and energy(gas, oil, electricity) increases. In Canada, unions are screaming for the government to barge in like Superman and save their jobs, but the government can't do anything about consumers choosing non suv vehicles or $130 dollar oil. The market has to find a new equilibrium.

In spite of this, Flaherty thinks we won't have a second quarter of negative growth. It's entirely possible, but only time will tell.

[madmax]

And you said this within a short time of scolding me for being off topic on another thread for bringing up the .........

Sharks need a thicker skin. Relax.

The situation Canada finds itself in is quite challenging. Our dollar rising to parity with the US dollar makes 80% of our exports too expensive. I'm sure this is a big reason why the vehicle manufacturing jobs are disappearing

You can add to that the majority of manufacturers who based their profits on the comparative advantage provided by a lower dollar over the last 12 years.

, on top of the shift to non-gas guzzlers.

That is a product shift, which can be turned into an advantage. In the 70's they went from Large CORDOBAs with fine Corrinthian Leather, to small TC3s, Turismos, Charger 1.7s, Omnis, etc, and these vehicles breathed new life into Chrysler.

(What will be in limbo is the location of the production facilities, suppliers and final assemby.)

Even the Japanese will have to go back to smaller 4 cylinder trucks.

On top of this, our main trading partner, the US, has a weak economy, and consumers there are not buying as much as they grapple with the mortgage crisis and energy(gas, oil, electricity) increases. In Canada, unions are screaming for the government to barge in like Superman and save their jobs, but the government can't do anything about consumers choosing non suv vehicles or $130 dollar oil. The market has to find a new equilibrium.

Many places that are/ have closed, have nothing in common with the purchase of an SUV. What does a soup company, a chocolate factory, a beef packaging plant, a box manufacturer, White products, textiles, door manufacturers etc, have in common with consumer demand in North America for an SUV.

In spite of this, Flaherty thinks we won't have a second quarter of negative growth. It's entirely possible, but only time will tell.

People haven't stopped purchasing consumer goods in Canada.

Job Losses have yet to exceed Job growth.

New Housing and Realestate is still strong.

That doesn't mean things are all rosey. But these are a few of the indicators that Canada could weather the storm south.

On a side note, I don't have a crystal ball either. Time will tell.

Edited June 4, 2008 by madmax

[jdobbin]

Oil rises to $138 a barrel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

athy Hay, a senior associate with Calgary-based consulting firm MJ Ervin, told The Canadian Press that gas prices would "without a doubt'' be pulled up by the spike.

Her company's latest weekly survey sees Canadian gas prices on average at $1.31 per litre. But that should rise significantly over the next few days, she said.

"I think $1.40 is probably quite realistic and possibly as much as five cents a litre higher than that,'' Hay said.

Oil usually starts slowly falling at the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Doesn't seem to be the case anymore.