TD Bank Predicts Billion Dollar Deficit in 2009/2010

[normanchateau]

TD Bank's latest economic projections see the government suffering a $1.1-billion shortfall in the 2009-10 fiscal year, rather than the $1.3-billion surplus projected in the recent budget. That would also be down from what the government projects will be a $2.3-billion surplus in the 2008-09 fiscal year, which begins Tuesday.

Dale Orr, chief economist at Global Insight, called the growth in spending "grossly excessive."

The continuing strong growth in government spending was criticized by Adam Taylor, national research director with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, who noted "Canadians won't tolerate being told to tighten their belts when the government won't tighten its belt."

However, Flaherty's communications director, Dan Miles, defended the surge in spending.

Full story:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/st...70-e7213069bd54

Had Harper and Flaherty not shovelled annually recurring billions off the back of the truck in handouts to Quebec in 2007 and squandered the surplus by increased government spending in 2006 and 2007, we might not be facing a deficit in 2009. How do Harper apologists rationalize the utter lack of fiscal conservatism?

[Sean Hayward]

Good question. The Conservatives have really dug a hole for themselves this time. It'll be interesting to see the final numbers later on.

[Alta4ever]

Good question. The Conservatives have really dug a hole for themselves this time. It'll be interesting to see the final numbers later on.

This just sets up the government to start to reduce unneeded social service spending.

[Sean Hayward]

This just sets up the government to start to reduce unneeded social service spending.

That'll be popular. Sure to win them a lot of votes in Ontario and Quebec.

[Alta4ever]

That'll be popular. Sure to win them a lot of votes in Ontario and Quebec.

Its something that you do in the first year of a majority gov.

[jdobbin]

This just sets up the government to start to reduce unneeded social service spending.

Yes, they can finally get rid of Medicare old age security.

[Alta4ever]

Yes, they can finally get rid of Medicare old age security.

Leave it for the provincial governments, as really these are their responsiblity. Before Trudeau there was very little incursion from Ottawa in Provincial matters.

[jdobbin]

Leave it for the provincial governments, as really these are their responsiblity. Before Trudeau there was very little incursion from Ottawa in Provincial matters.

The Tories will just make sure they remove all standards for healthcare in the Healthcare Act, remove funding to the provinces and finally kill these two programs.

[Alta4ever]

The Tories will just make sure they remove all standards for healthcare in the Healthcare Act, remove funding to the provinces and finally kill these two programs.

So tell me why we need two levels? Why aren't the provincial standards good enough, or is Ottawa the only truely enlightend place in this country that knows what is best for all the provinces.

We are wasting resouces through duplication of efforts, this is the true trudeau legacy.

[bush_cheney2004]

The Tories will just make sure they remove all standards for healthcare in the Healthcare Act, remove funding to the provinces and finally kill these two programs.

Well...gee...isn't that what the Liberals did back in the 90's?

[jdobbin]

So tell me why we need two levels? Why aren't the provincial standards good enough, or is Ottawa the only truely enlightend place in this country that knows what is best for all the provinces.

We are wasting resouces through duplication of efforts, this is the true trudeau legacy.

Why do we need any levels of social service? Isn't that what many on the right are trying to remove?

[Alta4ever]

Why do we need any levels of social service? Isn't that what many on the right are trying to remove?

Don't try to redirect, why do we need to waste resources for two levels of govenment on the same file?

[jdobbin]

Don't try to redirect, why do we need to waste resources for two levels of govenment on the same file?

Because standards of service are a national priority. Why does the right wing want poor services in some places and rich services for others?

[Alta4ever]

Because standards of service are a national priority. Why does the right wing want poor services in some places and rich services for others?

Why won't they be of a provincial priority. I don't need some putz in Ottawa to make decisions about what they think is good for my province, I can make that decision and elect reps to my provincial government to put them in action, we don't need intervention from some busy body who lives on the opposite side of the continent.

I want the people with in the countries to live within the means of the province, and every province has the resource to be a have province, but they they need to stop looking at what the neighbour is doing and fix their own problems. Quit playing the victim and whining, the provinces need to take responsibilty for themselves, and fix their situations instead of beging for someone else to do it.

[jdobbin]

Why won't they be of a provincial priority. I don't need some putz in Ottawa to make decisions about what they think is good for my province, I can make that decision and elect reps to my provincial government to put them in action, we don't need intervention from some busy body who lives on the opposite side of the continent.

I want the people with in the countries to live within the means of the province, and every province has the resource to be a have province, but they they need to stop looking at what the neighbour is doing and fix their own problems. Quit playing the victim and whining, the provinces need to take responsibilty for themselves, and fix their situations instead of beging for someone else to do it.

The right wing still doesn't get that setting national standards for a wide variety of national issues doesn't come from individual provinces.

It will be interesting to see Harper declare the end of Federal support for Medicare and Old Age Security and indicating he thinks it is up to the provinces to decide if they want it and what standards they wish to provide.

In any event, the deficit that some economists are predicting is not going to be widely accepted by Canadians. They won't care what reasons the right wing comes up for doing that. And if the solution is to gut social services, they will even be less happy.

Edited March 30, 2008 by jdobbin

[Alta4ever]

The right wing still doesn't get that setting national standards for a wide variety of national issues doesn't come from individual provinces.

It will be interesting to see Harper declare the end of Federal support for Medicare and Old Age Security and indicating he thinks it is up to the provinces to decide if they want it and what standards they wish to provide.

Its not that I don't get it, it is that I don't want it. I and my provincial government are prefectly able to set our own standards we don't need the East to tell us how to do it. We will run our province the way we want to, we don't need the intervention, becuase the citizen of each province knows what is best for there procinve and have to live by the decision. Those in Ottawa don't.

[jdobbin]

Its not that I don't get it, it is that I don't want it. I and my provincial government are prefectly able to set our own standards we don't need the East to tell us how to do it. We will run our province the way we want to, we don't need the intervention, becuase the citizen of each province knows what is best for there procinve and have to live by the decision. Those in Ottawa don't.

I hope the right wing campaigns honestly on that then in the next election about they are going to get the federal government out of things like Medicare and OAS.

[Alta4ever]

I hope the right wing campaigns honestly on that then in the next election about they are going to get the federal government out of things like Medicare and OAS.

You do realize that I speak for myself and not for all those on the right. Everyone has their own take on things.

[jdobbin]

You do realize that I speak for myself and not for all those on the right. Everyone has their own take on things.

I'd be happy if more on the right spoke about what they would do Medicare and OAS if they got a majority.

[normanchateau]

Good question. The Conservatives have really dug a hole for themselves this time. It'll be interesting to see the final numbers later on.

I've still not heard any Conservative apologist rationalize the utter lack of financial conservatism in their previous budgets. Here's one rationalization you probably won't hear acknowledged:

Buying votes in Quebec (what Duceppe called addressing the fiscal imbalance) costs the rest of Canada billions.

[August1991]

I'd be happy if more on the right spoke about what they would do Medicare and OAS if they got a majority.

That's right, Dobbin. Harper has a secret agenda to abolish medicare, the CPP, EI and then he plans to resign after turning Canada into a US protectorate.

Look, Dobbin, the *scary, scary* Harper meme doesn't fly anymore. The Liberals can't scare the electorate into voting Liberal by making outrageous claims of what a future Tory government might do.

I just spent some time wandering around shopping malls (ugh) in East/West suburban Montreal. Looking and listening to people with their families, it occurred to me that Harper is far closer to them than Stephane Dion or any other federal leader. Dion is a gangly academic who is not on the same wavelength as either English or French Canadians. Harper is as mainstream as one can get.

----

Now then, why all this noise about some report from a private bank about some unmeasurable statistic about two years down the road. My prediction of who will win the Stanley Cup in 2011 deserves more attention.

I agree that the federal government is spending too much money but one reason its budget is large is because of all the transfers to the provincial governments. So then, who is really responsible for the high spending?

Lastly, I have to agree with Alta4Ever. Ottawa is badly placed to establish "national" standards. And anyway, Canada is not some ISO-9000 project of critical standards.

[jdobbin]

That's right, Dobbin. Harper has a secret agenda to abolish medicare, the CPP, EI and then he plans to resign after turning Canada into a US protectorate.

Look, Dobbin, the *scary, scary* Harper meme doesn't fly anymore. The Liberals can't scare the electorate into voting Liberal by making outrageous claims of what a future Tory government might do.

It seems to me that it is the right wing here that is opening expressing that it wants an end to those programs. We keep hearing from people here that the government wants to remove surpluses so it can cut social spending. Please be honest if that isn't what is being said here or is Harper spending at the rate of 7% just because he a is big spender and not a big cutter?

I just spent some time wandering around shopping malls (ugh) in East/West suburban Montreal. Looking and listening to people with their families, it occurred to me that Harper is far closer to them than Stephane Dion or any other federal leader. Dion is a gangly academic who is not on the same wavelength as either English or French Canadians. Harper is as mainstream as one can get.

And yet Harper is spending at a rate that could put Canada in a real fix if the economy goes down in 2008.

August, what do you make of the uncontrollable spending by the Tories? Is it a plan? Is it an accident? Does it come with cuts? What? Be honest.

----

Now then, why all this noise about some report from a private bank about some unmeasurable statistic about two years down the road. My prediction of who will win the Stanley Cup in 2011 deserves more attention.

I agree that the federal government is spending too much money but one reason its budget is large is because of all the transfers to the provincial governments. So then, who is really responsible for the high spending?

Lastly, I have to agree with Alta4Ever. Ottawa is badly placed to establish "national" standards. And anyway, Canada is not some ISO-9000 project of critical standards.

I think the government's own figures show a sharp stall in revenues. It doesn't take a bank report to see that.

And yes, we know that the right wing solution is to divest to the provinces. I just wish they would be honest about the fact that in some places this could be the end of many social services that Canadians like.

Is it the right wing contention that Harper is in touch with this divestiture of things like OAS and Medicare to the provinces? Is it the contention there should be national standard from one part of the country to the other?

Edited March 30, 2008 by jdobbin

[Alta4ever]

It seems to me that it is the right wing here that is opening expressing that it wants an end to those programs. We keep hearing from people here that the government wants to remove surpluses so it can cut social spending. Please be honest if that isn't what is being said here or is Harper spending at the rate of 7% just because he a is big spender and not a big cutter?

And yet Harper is spending at a rate that could put Canada in a real fix if the economy goes down in 2008.

August, what do you make of the uncontrollable spending by the Tories? Is it a plan? Is it an accident? Does it come with cuts? What? Be honest.

----

I think the government's own figures show a sharp stall in revenues. It doesn't take a bank report to see that.

And yes, we know that the right wing solution is to divest to the provinces. I just wish they would be honest about the fact that in some places this could be the end of many social services that Canadians like.

Is it the right wing contention that Harper is in touch with this divestiture of things like OAS and Medicare to the provinces? Is it the contention there should be national standard from one part of the country to the other?

There should never be a National Standard it brings everyone down to the lowest common denominator See the Signature at the bottom of my post.

[jdobbin]

There should never be a National Standard it brings everyone down to the lowest common denominator See the Signature at the bottom of my post.

What evidence do you have that the national standard will not indeed be a lot lower if provinces set them. Maybe a few provinces will think that removing social services as making them more competitive. Some might just not be able to afford them.

[normanchateau]

I agree that the federal government is spending too much money but one reason its budget is large is because of all the transfers to the provincial governments. So then, who is really responsible for the high spending?

Harper is responsible for choosing to give a vastly disproportionate amount of money to Quebec. That's why Duceppe voted for the budget.

Other provinces got shortchanged, e.g.,

http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/2007/03/b...ote-buying.html

And Charest used the billions from the free-spending Harper to reduce Quebec provincial income taxes in 2007. The reduction of provincial income taxes in Quebec, a province which richly subsidizes day care, was entirely at the expense of the rest of Canada.

Rather than squandering a multibillion surplus on gifts to Quebec, why not lower marginal income tax rates? That would have been the prudent and fiscally conservative course of action.