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Conservative Leadership Race


Who will win?  

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I'll go first

how will the race go?

well, I think in the begining, people will rally around Harper. I also think the Stronach will pick up some support. For the first month it will look like a head-to-head in the media between these 2, while Harper is always 'the front runner' Things will change in the last month or so. Stronach supporters will hear bad news from the Alliance. that some of their members will leave if Stronach wins. Harper's supporters will realize they do not have a majority, and hence, will not win on the first ballot, and therefore, not win at all. People will begin to rally around Clement, as a neutral party. Quebec will come in behind Clement, and when this happens, is when the whole situation will change. Harper and Stronach will split the party, but Clement will not. He will win on the second ballot, 55-45

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Belinda Stronach will win on the first ballot.

The reason being is that she is more marketable to mainstream Canadian society than the other candidates.

And by her winning, a lot of the PCs, including former Prime Minister Joe Clark, who have left the party, will return.

An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't.

Anatole France

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Belinda Stronach will win on the first ballot.

The reason being is that she is more marketable to mainstream Canadian society than the other candidates.

And by her winning, a lot of the PCs, including former Prime Minister Joe Clark, who have left the party, will return.

You sound pretty cocksure there...

I'd take more caution in predicting the future. Stronach hasn't even started campaigning yet and she's the dark horse too.

You're predicting a first ballot victory ? :rolleyes:

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The reason being is that she is more marketable to mainstream Canadian society than the other candidates.

I voted reform when Manning was in charge. Then watched as the party changed and stabbed him in the back on the way out the door.

I watched my CA MP carry out one of her first official functions and vote along with the Liberals for her own pay raise, even though many of her coleagues didn't.

Then I watched as Day took over. He got stabbed in the back by the 'revolutionaries' and then, booted out of the lead spot.

I watched as Mackay took over the New New Conservative party. I barely knew the guy.

Now you are trying to tell me that she deserves my loyalty because she is 'more marketable?' Believe it or not, I must live in a box or something, I didn't even know there was a company called Magna until her name came up a couple months ago. Now I'm supposed to like her? Trust her? Heck, let me catch my breath for a minute to try and figure out if I even want to be in a party with all these back stabing SOBs running around.

Somebody give me a reality check. Is it just me not being very well informed or is there sanity in all this seemingly treacherous affairs. I mean, I used to be a CA member and now, I no idea of what this new party stands for or even if they are loyal to anyone but themselves.

We're Paratroopers Lieutenant. We're supposed to be surrounded - CPT Richard Winters

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Somebody give me a reality check. Is it just me not being very well informed or is there sanity in all this seemingly treacherous affairs. I mean, I used to be a CA member and now, I no idea of what this new party stands for or even if they are loyal to anyone but themselves.

Shoudn't you have lost your political virginity when the CA voted themselves the pension, or when Manning moved into Stornaway.

Every grassroots movement eventually moves on and loses touch with the people who started it. It's a shame, but true. The CCF (forerunner to the NDP) was started by basically the same people in the same part of the country as Reform. It's all a cynical... I mean... It's all a cycle.

:huh:

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To all the Conservative folks that are attacking Belinda Stronach's entry into the Conservative leadership race, I believe you are making a big mistake.

Realistically, on the national scene, I'm talking Canada wide here, which one has to assume, is where you are focusing, there has not been anything of interest for mainstream Canadians, coming out of the Conservative side for years.

Finally there is someone, regardless of whether she wins or not, who is going to give the Conservatives a huge amount of publicity. Conservative supporters should be absolutely delighted with the turn of events.

And forget about what all the political pundits say. They all have their own agendas, and often we don't know what they are.

Now, having said that, here are some excerpts from a political pundit. :D

'An uneven but compelling performance'

By ROY MacGREGOR

Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art...1/TPColumnists/

'In a party whose popular, if somewhat unfair, image is of high collars and muttonchops, no one would say an attractive, successful young woman is anything but a bonus to a race the country would otherwise have ignored.'

'As for what she said, it is clear that she and her multitude of handlers would like to position her squarely as the candidate of the Progressive Conservatives that form the minority position in this merger with the Alliance. For those many who have seen the merger as a takeover by Alliance, this is a wise move, as it speaks more to the treasured centre of the fluctuating political spectrum than to the right.

The moment she said, very firmly, "I believe in same-sex marriage," that point was settled. She will pay a price on the far right, but gain toward the centre of public opinion.

In this she showed some courage. In calling for the scrapping of the gun registry and better policing of illegal guns, she showed common sense. She showed honesty in admitting to smoking marijuana, though surely more Canadians would be suspicious of a 37-year-old who had never smoked than they would be dubious of one who has.'

'There are 75 ridings in Quebec, each with 100 points for a leader who must reach at least 15,401 to claim victory on March 20. It is, by far, the most fertile ground in the country as there are no members and there is no machine in charge. Should former prime minister Brian Mulroney come on board, as is widely expected, a Stronach machine will instantly materialize.

Mulroney has been consulted throughout her decision process and told The Globe and Mail last week that it is important for the two "estranged" portions of the conservative movement to come together again and stake out new ground near the middle.

Exactly Belinda Stronach's intention.

Such irony, then, that Quebec could conceivably decide on the leadership of a party it has so far wanted no part of -- perhaps even to the point of delivering it to one who barely speaks the language.

Who, then, could possibly resist paying attention to this race?'

'

An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't.

Anatole France

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Yes its very sad. All any rich candidate has to do is buy Quebec and they've got it in the bag.

So many ridings don't have any members at all and all it takes is signing up 20 members and you've cancelled out Western ridings with 10,000 members.

Canadian democracy is grand, isn't it?

Charles Adler yesterday said that he held off unloading on Belinda Stronach because "it would be like shooting Bambi". ( Couldn't find a web site quote).

Looks like the Anybody But Harper gang has their candidate.

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Watcher wrote:

Yes its very sad. All any rich candidate has to do is buy Quebec and they've got it in the bag.

So many ridings don't have any members at all and all it takes is signing up 20 members and you've cancelled out Western ridings with 10,000 members.

Canadian democracy is grand, isn't it?

It's not Canadian democracy as much as the rules Harper and McKay worked out for the merger.

Charles Adler yesterday said that he held off unloading on Belinda Stronach because "it would be like shooting Bambi". ( Couldn't find a web site quote).

Looks like the Anybody But Harper gang has their candidate.

and Maple wrote:

Finally there is someone, regardless of whether she wins or not, who is going to give the Conservatives a huge amount of publicity. Conservative supporters should be absolutely delighted with the turn of events.

The Conservatives don't need publicity so much that they have to elect a complete neophyte with no proven ability whatsoever.

Harper isn't exactly charismatic but he's smart and politically astute. He's the best candidate of the three. He will gradually get more charming as time goes on. Two elections from now, he'll be practically the Dean Martin of the right - you'll see.

Even the stiff Preston Manning loosened up incredibly between 1993 and 2000.

Stonach, on the other hand, has the opposite problem - lack of knowledge and experience. This takes a lot more than 7 years to learn.

I believe the Alliance learned their mistake with Stockwell Day. He was flashy and even had solid political experience, but was soundly defeated by the Liberal machine. If Harper stays the course with quiet confidence, and keeps his more erratic supporters in line he will see more and more support come his way.

Of course, forming the government is probably out of the question for a 2004 election. But the future is never far away...

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Bambi was a Buck! I think thumper was a dude too.

Still I'm glad my parents didn't name me Bambi.

Congratulations to Belinda on taking the plunge. She certainly has not been shy in adopting positions on some issues and I commend her for that.

I have two concerns however concerning statements that she has made over the past couple of days. Her stands seem to indicate a lack of understanding for the issues at hand.

1. Ms. Stronach has declared that she opposes the decriminalization of marijuana use. When asked if she has every tried the substance she admitted to using in high school. Does Belinda believe that she should have a criminal record? How about all of her peers who undoubtedly pressured her into this criminal act? If not, why does she believe that other people who are caught doing what she admits to doing should? I suspect that Ms. Stronach really means to say that she is against legalizing marijuana. This is a position that I would be comfortable with. There is a difference between the positions of opposing decriminalization and legalizing. I am left wondering if Ms. Stronach is a hypocrite or simply does not know the difference. I am giving her the benefit of the doubt and assuming the latter.

2. Ms. Stronach took the bold stand of declaring same sex unions a "human rights issue". I agree and so do the courts. She then indicated that such divisive issues should be open to a free vote. Does Belinda recognize that such a vote, if it were to go against the supreme court rulings, would require invoking the notwithstanding clause? Although this has been done by Quebec in relation to their language laws, the idea of our federal government doing so is unthinkable. Does she have any understanding of the way that our political and judicial systems work? Human rights are protected from popular opinion. That was the whole point of adopting a charter. If you believe that something is a human right, you are by definition opposed to allowing others (even if it’s a majority) to interfere with that right.

Ms. Stronach no doubt possesses great knowledge about the inner workings of the corporate world. She is no doubt business savvy and intelligent. It is becoming quickly apparent however that she has never studied Canadian politics or law, and lacks any depth of knowledge related to the ways that these issues are actually dealt with by our parliament and the courts.

My first immpression as an Atlantic Canadian Tory was to support Ms. Stronach, but I cannot ignore these shortcomings. I suspect that I am not the only one who recognized these points.

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Interesting post, TB.

I hadn't read anything about her speech, but I did know that BS (Unfortunate initials, there, Ms. Stonach) was a newcomer. Her lack of understanding of these basics should be essentially a disqualification.

If I were a party member, I would vote for Harper.

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Not being from Ontario, I don't know much about Tony Clement... but I haven't heard too many complaints. I think if he wants to have a chance, he needs to raise his profile in the West. A good strong leader he may be, but the Conservative stronghold now lies in the west, and we don't know who he is.

Which leaves us voting for Harper if we don't trust BS's experience. And that would put the new Conservatives only slightly ahead of where the Alliance was on its own.

The new party needs a leader who has not made too many headlines in either party. I also suggest they need a former PC MP. For the new party to gain credibility in the crucial early period, it cannot be seen as the Alliance in new clothes.

In Saskatchewan 2 elections ago, (figure 4 years), the Sask. Party, based on the old Conservative party, lost the election because of the perception (helped along by a very effective NDP ad campaign) that they were merely the old conservatives in green, rather than blue.

(For those who don't follow Sask. politics, the Conservatives were hoofed out of power several years ago after a huge scandal resulting in criminal charges against many in the Tory cabinet.)

A former Alliance leader would be fine in the future, but the new party needs to avoid the "radical" stigma that many see in the East. I think McKay actually would have been ideal, but in the absense of his name, I have to put my support with Tony Clement. Even if I don't know much about the guy.

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I'm ready to bolt anyhow. Stronach would just make me save the gas to the polls.

Something else. I think the Barbie flyer was self induced. Probably not by her but by her supporters to gain reverse reaction. The attention gained is so much conversation of how it is the person the matters, not the sex. Just after a week of the press being critisized for remarking on her looks. Now everybody is talking about her, how she is a person and not a Barbie. What about Harper? He's just a guy, don't have to talk about him.

If it wasn't her supporters whoever did it did her a big favor.

BARBLINDA

the campaign against her took an even nastier turn when an anonymous flyer labelling her "Parliament Hill Barbie" was circulated at an Ontario Tory convention.

Manning you had a leader. Harris same. Harris didn't have the time for us. Hope he is happy with his family. If he steps a foot away from them to seek public office again I'll fight against him best I can. We needed him, not Belinda, whoever she is. In the meantime, guess I'll just have to get used to Martin. He'll be here for awhile.

Funny, after a decade of voting Reform and CA, I am actually trusting the Liberals more than those leading my own party. Least they don't make any pretentions of being honest.

We're Paratroopers Lieutenant. We're supposed to be surrounded - CPT Richard Winters

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Funny, after a decade of voting Reform and CA, I am actually trusting the Liberals more than those leading my own party. Least they don't make any pretentions of being honest.

go public with that

tell em you think the Liberals are more right-wing then the tories

pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeease!!!!

if you, and everyone else did that, the NDP would kick some royal a@@ this election!!!

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tell em you think the Liberals are more right-wing then the tories

Wow. Where did you read that into my post? I thought it was pretty clear that I found the Conservative party lacking in the strength and integrity dept rather than shifting to the right or left.

We're Paratroopers Lieutenant. We're supposed to be surrounded - CPT Richard Winters

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  • 2 weeks later...

there's only a month and 15-20some days to go!!

here are my thoughts so far

the race is getting too little attention. these guys really need to kick it up a notch if they intend to get that post-leadershiprace-boost in the polls, which will be critical to the election.

I think Clement's campaign has really fallen off. I wouldent doubt that he's the most popular #2 candidate, but he will not have enough #1's to win the race. I also think most of Clement's people will have put Harper as #2, and that therefore, Harper will win.

Not only will Harper win the first ballot, likely 40-30-20, but he will win the 2nd, and final round.

Saying that, a few things will happen.

There are some right-wingers who are going to be upset with this new party. If Stronach wins, this will only make it worse.

In Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan, and to a much lesser degree, the remaining english provinces, we will see the rise of an extremist right-wing party. Perhaps a return of the Confederation of Regions, perhaps the new "National Alternate Party" gaining some ground, or the more likely one, the Christian Heretage Party topping 1% or 2% in the national polls.

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If there's one thing that I believe to be obvious is that Belinda Stronach brought attention to this leadership campaign. How many opposition party leadership changes have we seen since the Chrétien era?

The next question is: how many got this kind of attention by the media?

The Stronach effect is that she is taking away the light from the liberals. She's also taking away the light from the same generation that has been leading this country since the 70s.

I joined the new party in order to prevent the rise of a strong right-wing party.

If Harper wins, I'm gone.

If Harper wins and becomes Prime Minister OR if the party takes a strong right-wing rise, Quebec is gone too, even if it means a "24th" Referendum.

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Interesting.

My theory is that if Stronach wins then BC and Alberta are gone.

I hardly think Quebec would separate over a Harper Opposition/PMship. If anything Harper is for divesting federal powers and allowing the provinces a little more autonomy something that will sell well in Quebec.

Having a billionare barbie doll or Campbell V2.0 there will totally disenfranchise western voters.

But what do I know. Maybe some of the 40% of voters who never bother to vote would be enticed to come out and vote for the babe. Politics never really does make sense, <shrug>.

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I joined the new party in order to prevent the rise of a strong right-wing party.

Vote Liberal then.

If Stronach wins, I will not support this party. I'm sure many others will not either.

The next new party to hail from the west will not be saying the west wants in...

...they will proclaim: the west wants out.

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if Stronach wins you have an interesting situation

if Harper wins you have an interesting situation

if Clement wins you have an interesting situation

lemme explain

if Clement wins, he could keep red tories (the ones who stuck with the party) in the party, as well as keep western finge neo-cons in the party as well. Clement would win the most seats out of any of these people.

Stronach seems to have the machenery of the PC Party behind her. and I dont mean the 12.2% of the vote, 12 seat, PC Party of 2000. I am talking about the 1984 211 seat, 50% of the vote PC Party. She would capture more, in popular vote, then any one else. But, if she wins, the fringe element leaves the party. Some races in alberta, saskatchewan, and manitoba, and a heck of a lot of races in BC will be very close between the Grits and Tories. Stronach cannot win these seats.

Harper would make the remaining red tories leave. Most of the remaining red tories are concentrated in Ontario and the east. As we've seen with Brison and Herron, eastern red tories are willing to work for the libs rather then support the new conservative party. Ontario red tories will likely stay home, while eastern red tories will vote Liberal.

on closer examinaiton:

the 2 opposing groups are the Red Tories, and the Social-Conservatives. While both agree on economic policy, they vary on social policy. 8% of the Alliance voted against merger with the PC Party. These were mostly Social-Conservatives IMHO. 10% of the PC Party voted agaisnt merger, mostly Red Tories.

Some Red Tories are not in the party anymore. Keith Martin, Scott Brison, John Herron, Joe Clark. Some Social-Conservatives are not in the party either, Larry Spencer was kicked out of the new party.

If the Red Tories, and Social-Conservatives voted for this new party, it would sweep Alberta totally. It would take all but 2 or 3 ridings in BC, all but a riding or two in Saskatchewan, and half of Manitoba

This election, unlike the last 3, Bay Street now has a united alternative to vote for. Financial restrictions may make the new party harder to support though, but this will gain the party in Ontario. Remember, there are more red tories then social-conservatives in ontario. Quebec is another story. The only time the tories have done well here is when they appeal to nationalists, but with the Liberals, and NDP trying to do the same, and the Bloc (which was created to be a quebec nationalist party) fighting like mad, the best idea this election is for the tories to present themselvs as purly federalist.

In the east, we have many red tories, but also social-conservatives.

If the red tories do not vote for the new party, they will lose seats in BC, Manitoba, Ontario, and the east.

if social conservatives do not vote for the new party, they will lose seats in BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan

BC is going to be critical this election, and the new party is hard-pressed to find the middle ground.

If one group does leave the party, they have some choices.

Red Tories can either try to revive the PC Party, or create some other force. They could also turn Liberal.

Social Conservatives can join the CHP, or some existing force, or start one of their own, likely sepratist.

Worst case scenario for canada?

Stronach wins, does not bring red tories back, a large number of social-conservatives leave the party, and join the CHP. Larry Spencer becomes the CHP's house leader.

Joe Clark is convinced to run again, and lead a new political party made up of Red Tories. This new party does not hurt the Liberals, but rather hurts the NDP.

Result of the election?

Paul Martin with more then 250 MP's in his caucus.

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I haven't seen anything yet that detracts from my original forecast of Belinda winning this on the first count of the preferential ballot, although it might take the second count to swing it, if that is the correct terminology. :D

An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't.

Anatole France

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