Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

It's hard to see how $1.30 gas and a carbon tax play well together at the polls.

...or how global warming and a PM in the pocket of big oil play out together in the coming election.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Decima.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080813/...nal/poll_tories

Nationally, Liberal support was up slightly to 33 per cent, statistically tied with the Tories at 32 per cent and followed by the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens at six per cent.

In Quebec, the Liberals were statistically tied with the Bloc Quebecois, at 30 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, followed by the Tories at 24 per cent, the Greens at eight per cent and the NDP at six per cent.

In Ontario, the Liberals enjoyed a healthy lead with 40 per cent, compared to the Tories with 31 per cent and the NDP and Greens with 14 per cent each.

Liberals tied with the BQ? I'd like to see a few more polls from Quebec.

[madmax]

Latest poll from Decima.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080813/...nal/poll_tories

Liberals tied with the BQ? I'd like to see a few more polls from Quebec.

Will Dion pull the plug after the By Elections.

[jdobbin]

Will Dion pull the plug after the By Elections.

Most likely.

[capricorn]

Will Dion pull the plug after the By Elections.

Only if he thinks Canadians are still "hungry" for an election.

On a more serious note, if Harper wants Dion to fish or cut bait, he'll have to present bold legislation in the fall to provide the required incentive. I don't think Canadians will take lightly to the continue bravado talk from the Liberals who then scurry to avoid an election. This behaviour of continued election avoidance undermines the credibility of the Liberal Party.

[jdobbin]

On a more serious note, if Harper wants Dion to fish or cut bait, he'll have to present bold legislation in the fall to provide the required incentive. I don't think Canadians will take lightly to the continue bravado talk from the Liberals who then scurry to avoid an election. This behaviour of continued election avoidance undermines the credibility of the Liberal Party.

It has hurt the party and that is why this fall is probably when the plug will be pulled. If Harper fails to deliver a majority, I expect there will be calls for him to step down as there will be for Dion.

[capricorn]

If Harper fails to deliver a majority, I expect there will be calls for him to step down as there will be for Dion.

Given the recent propensity of Canadians' preference for minority governments, why would a party punish a leader for delivering what the voting public wants? I'm not saying that changing the players at the top is not a good thing. I think the reason for making that change has to be more than in the context of a minority win.

[jdobbin]

Given the recent propensity of Canadians' preference for minority governments, why would a party punish a leader for delivering what the voting public wants? I'm not saying that changing the players at the top is not a good thing. I think the reason for making that change has to be more than in the context of a minority win.

Usually a leader is given two elections to win a majority. Harper has had a few kicks at the can.

Dion likely has only one shot of winning power. If he wins a minority, his future is safe till the next election.

[Vancouver King]

It has hurt the party and that is why this fall is probably when the plug will be pulled. If Harper fails to deliver a majority, I expect there will be calls for him to step down as there will be for Dion.

And so it begins. The inexorable march back to office by the now-humbled but now-hungry Liberals plus - and could anyone have contemplated this six months ago - the tough process for Tories of replacing Stephen Harper who will have lost one too many elections, a victim of his own belligerence.

Time has caught up to the Conservatives, it is doubtful there remains enough time to turn around the Ontario and Quebec numbers in the context of additional dismal economic news to come in those two regions. Let the post mortem begin and let the unofficial CPC leadership contest commence.

[1967100]

And so it begins. The inexorable march back to office by the now-humbled but now-hungry Liberals plus - and could anyone have contemplated this six months ago - the tough process for Tories of replacing Stephen Harper who will have lost one too many elections, a victim of his own belligerence.

Time has caught up to the Conservatives, it is doubtful there remains enough time to turn around the Ontario and Quebec numbers in the context of additional dismal economic news to come in those two regions. Let the post mortem begin and let the unofficial CPC leadership contest commence.

I'm a Conservative and I've actually been pretty disappointed with Harper thus far. He's been attacking Dion with childish name-calling and bullying tactics rather than debating actual policy, and his reputation has been marred with Cadman affair and the illegal Tory extra spending- making him a hypocrite as he can't hold his ground with offering a transparent government that he promised in the 06 election.

Harper makes Mulroney look like a statesman.

[Wild Bill]

I'm a Conservative and I've actually been pretty disappointed with Harper thus far. He's been attacking Dion with childish name-calling and bullying tactics rather than debating actual policy, and his reputation has been marred with Cadman affair and the illegal Tory extra spending- making him a hypocrite as he can't hold his ground with offering a transparent government that he promised in the 06 election.

Harper makes Mulroney look like a statesman.

Well, I was a Reformer and I'm disappointed as well.

Worse yet, I'll still have to vote Tory for the same reasons I did back in the Mulroney years - a lack of a better choice!

They ALL reek to me! Just one a bit less than the others.

I keep hoping for another Manning or his successor to come out of the woodwork...

[jdobbin]

Worse yet, I'll still have to vote Tory for the same reasons I did back in the Mulroney years - a lack of a better choice!

I keep hoping for another Manning or his successor to come out of the woodwork...

You could always run yourself in your riding.

[Keepitsimple]

The Liberals better pull the plug soon. If Obama wins the presidency and Harper can quickly develop a working relationship with him - which both parties will want to do, it will mute anti-americanism and take away all the childish bush-clone rhetoric......and that may very well be Harper's ticket to a majority.

[jdobbin]

The Liberals better pull the plug soon. If Obama wins the presidency and Harper can quickly develop a working relationship with him - which both parties will want to do, it will mute anti-americanism and take away all the childish bush-clone rhetoric......and that may very well be Harper's ticket to a majority.

You think anti-Americanism is responsible for Harper's present position in the polls?

Edited August 14, 2008 by jdobbin

[Vancouver King]

The Liberals better pull the plug soon. If Obama wins the presidency and Harper can quickly develop a working relationship with him - which both parties will want to do, it will mute anti-americanism and take away all the childish bush-clone rhetoric......and that may very well be Harper's ticket to a majority.

Don't sweat it. The Liberals will pull the plug within weeks, once 2 of 3 Sept. bi election wins are confirmed and the House sits.

Establish a working relationship with Obama? After Harper attempted to sabotage his presidential candidacy by leaking NAFTA-related communications? Obama is undoubtedly a new style politician, however, you can wager that bit of meddling by the PM's office will not go unrewarded.

The "Yo Stephen" chumminess to America's most despised president - including mimicking contemptible American-style off-election attack ads and a new emphasis on militarism - are secondary to knock-out importance of a shared policy with Washington Republicans: that pumping a trillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere has no effect on climate and global warming.

Add in the unfolding recession in Central Canada - all a result of American conservative policies - and a slam dunk for Dion seems inevitable.

[Fortunata]

I don't think it will be a slam dunk for Dion but many of us think a minority of weak Dion is much better for the country than a minority (or god forbid, majority) of "strong" (so called anyways) Harper. Harper is the biggest political whore that this country has ever seen. He would bow down, apologize to, pay off, sell his mother for the votes he needs for a majority. He now attacks a la republican, personalizes, disrupts and other despicable, sleasy ploys so as to get his way. A different leader of the CPC wouldn't necessarily conduct business the dirty way Harper does and that would be a very good thing.

[Keepitsimple]

You think anti-Americanism is responsible for Harper's present position in the polls?

Even on this board, there are several posters who think that Harper cozies up to Bush. It doesn't take much of a swing to get a majority and having Democrats in the White House negates a lot of that empty rhetoric.

[jdobbin]

Even on this board, there are several posters who think that Harper cozies up to Bush. It doesn't take much of a swing to get a majority and having Democrats in the White House negates a lot of that empty rhetoric.

I think that the idea that anti-Americanism keep Harper in minority status is probably overstating things.

Moreover, even if Obama wins, it doesn't mean he will have a good relationship with the man.

[Wild Bill]

You could always run yourself in your riding.

Only theoretically. I lack the financial resources to campaign and I have a growing family with a debt load that needs me to keep earning money. If I wished to run for an established party I wouldn't be able to post a candidate's bond. To any local riding association I would not be their first choice of candidate.

Even if I did run and win, all the current parties practice rigid party discipline. If I couldn't have the freedom to vote according to the wishes of the majority of my constituents, like what was promised by the old Reform Party, I couldn't look myself in the mirror every morning. Look what happened to John Nunziata and Garth Turner.

I could make a token effort, like a Libertarian candidate might do. Still, what good would such an effort do? The best that could be achieved would be to show that at least in theory an ordinary citizen could indeed stand for office. In terms of actually achieving any positive change it would really be a futile effort.

So unless you have a solution to these challenges of MY specific situation you'll have to forgive me if I don't give much heed to your advice.

[jdobbin]

I could make a token effort, like a Libertarian candidate might do. Still, what good would such an effort do? The best that could be achieved would be to show that at least in theory an ordinary citizen could indeed stand for office. In terms of actually achieving any positive change it would really be a futile effort.

So unless you have a solution to these challenges of MY specific situation you'll have to forgive me if I don't give much heed to your advice.

All of these things can be overcome if you believe you are the man for the job. You say all others are bad choices. If good people decide not to run, it really doesn't change things.

I ran for office with few resources and almost won.

There are many excuses not to run. However, if you believe you can make a difference, then you should consider it. You've said many times that all parties are bad, you don't think too much of any of the candidates and say that you have to hold your nose when you vote. It doesn't have to be that way.

[jbg]

The "Yo Stephen" chumminess to America's most despised president - including mimicking contemptible American-style off-election attack ads and a new emphasis on militarism - are secondary to knock-out importance of a shared policy with Washington Republicans: that pumping a trillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere has no effect on climate and global warming.

That shows you know about as much about America as I do about Canada. Bush is despised in mass media and academic circles, that's it. Carter and Nixon were despised Presidents; Bush II is not.

[Visionseeker]

I'm a Conservative and I've actually been pretty disappointed with Harper thus far. He's been attacking Dion with childish name-calling and bullying tactics rather than debating actual policy, and his reputation has been marred with Cadman affair and the illegal Tory extra spending- making him a hypocrite as he can't hold his ground with offering a transparent government that he promised in the 06 election.

Harper makes Mulroney look like a statesman.

Great post. It really is refreshing when someone criticizes their own political brand. It renews my hope that we are not simply a bunch of ideological driftwood in this country.

[Visionseeker]

That shows you know about as much about America as I do about Canada. Bush is despised in mass media and academic circles, that's it. Carter and Nixon were despised Presidents; Bush II is not.

Bwahahaha! Bush II is not despised!? His approval ratings are the lowest ever recorded. Do you suppose this stems from a mild dislike?

[Wild Bill]

All of these things can be overcome if you believe you are the man for the job. You say all others are bad choices. If good people decide not to run, it really doesn't change things.

I ran for office with few resources and almost won.

There are many excuses not to run. However, if you believe you can make a difference, then you should consider it. You've said many times that all parties are bad, you don't think too much of any of the candidates and say that you have to hold your nose when you vote. It doesn't have to be that way.

Sorry. You seem to be simply cheerleading, asking me to take it on faith. I'm a techie. I don't believe in faith. I believe in proven confidence but that's not the same thing.

I'm also 58 years old. To achieve any sort of meaningful change would likely take longer than my remaining time. I also am recovering from a quadruple heart bypass. I don't have the physical energy that I had in my 20's, or even my 30's. Look how long Manning led the charge for MP's to vote freely and that attempt failed.

Once again, you sound much too academic for me to accept your arguments.

Edited August 15, 2008 by Wild Bill

[jdobbin]

Sorry. You seem to be simply cheerleading, asking me to take it on faith. I'm a techie. I don't believe in faith. I believe in proven confidence but that's not the same thing.

I don't know where I told you to take it on faith. I think I've indicated that you seem to have the confidence in your ideas and little confidence in the others in power right now. Each election people with little means or money run for federal office. Not all run under a party slate. It is difficult to win as an independent but we have seen a number of people over the last 30 years who have started their own parties from scratch and become a political force.

I'm also 58 years old. To achieve any sort of meaningful change would likely take longer than my remaining time. I also am recovering from a quadruple heart bypass. I don't have the physical energy that I had in my 20's, or even my 30's.

Dick Cheney has had so many heart surgeries that people have given up telling him that it is an obstacle. John McCain is no spring chicken either

Once again, you sound much too academic for me to accept your arguments.

You have dismissed it as academic. I say to you that it isn't. I did it and I have seen many others do it as well. Many of those people won office. Not because they had faith although that was a sort of strength for many but because they had confidence that they could do better.

Edited August 15, 2008 by jdobbin