Canadian Political Polls

[PoliticalCitizen]

Attitude?

Why should I care about that?

What I care about is policy and legislation. I have absolutely no need to get any kind of warm and fuzzy feeling from any politician.

I vote fpor leadership, and expect whomever is elected to get on with what they said they would do. If the loyal Opposition does not agree with that course, they have a simple choice. Either dump the govt in a confidence vote, or get out of the way. Dion is now reaping the consequences of taking a third path, which is to whine about what Harper was doing, but failing to act on his stated beliefs in any kind of consistent manner. Goodbye credibility, hello jellyfish.

I agree with your description of the situation, but I also do not approve of strong-arm and speculation politics.

[PoliticalCitizen]

I agree with your description of the situation, but I also do not approve of strong-arm and speculation politics.

Wow!

Conservative support is way down and Liberal way up in this latest National Poll from Nanos:

CON 35%

LIB 30%

NDP 18%

BQ 10%

GRN 9%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-3-2008E.pdf

[Jobu]

Wow!

Conservative support is way down and Liberal way up in this latest National Poll from Nanos:

CON 35%

LIB 30%

NDP 18%

BQ 10%

GRN 9%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-3-2008E.pdf

That's not the latest polls. Today has the CPC at at a 7% point lead, with it appearing that yesterday's numbers were rogue (Dion's leadership index falling by 19 points today). I'd say by Tuesday or Wednesday we'll likely be back to a 10-12 point CPC lead, especially with the CPC platform release coming up (unless there are some surprises, we'll probably see consverative spending and estimates) and, if anything, policy announcements again targeted at Quebecers and women/families.

I think the tell-tale sign of this election is that the LPC is campaigning in LPC ridings hoping to hold on, whereas the CPC is in ridings it currently does not hold trying to pick up.

The one thing that these polls do not account for is turnout. Completely unscientifically, I have a feeling non-ABC LPC turn-out will be extremely low. I just don't see what they have to be excited about in Dion. I would expect to see the CPC come in at least a couple of percentage points higher on election day than they are currently polling. The CPC base can be counted on to go out and vote; I'm not convinced the same is true for the LPC.

Edited October 4, 2008 by Jobu

[Vancouver King]

Here is just released Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, the third consecutive sounding showing the Conservatives down to 35% support:

"Conservative majority slipping away, poll indicates."

Cons 35%

Libs 22

NDP 20

GRN 13

Bloc 9

Support for the 3 minor parties - those who can't bring themselves to vote for Conservatives or Liberals - is astonishing, a combined 42% of decided voters.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Here is just released Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, the third consecutive sounding showing the Conservatives down to 35% support:

"Conservative majority slipping away, poll indicates."

Cons 35%

Libs 22

NDP 20

GRN 13

Bloc 9

Support for the 3 minor parties - those who can't bring themselves to vote for Conservatives or Liberals - is astonishing, a combined 42% of decided voters.

Oh wow! I think it's the highest Green popularity I've ever seen!

And 20% for NDP? Incredible!

Well, now Harper's minority will have to deal with real opponents, not spineless Liberals...

I bet his second minority will be as short-lived as the first one should have been

[Vancouver King]

Conservative support rachets down again. The fat lady has thundered back on the stage.

"Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says the latest results suggest Tory hopes for a majority are dimmer than at anytime since the campaign began a month ago".

Cons 34%

Libs 24

NDP 20

Grn 13

Bloc 8

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/512116

[Vancouver King]

Conservative lead now 4%. This is the wrong trend for the governing party.

Nanos today:

CPC 34%

Libs 30%

NDP 19

Bloc 10

Grn 7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-5-2008E.pdf

[independent]

Conservative lead now 4%. This is the wrong trend for the governing party.

Nanos today:

CPC 34%

Libs 30%

NDP 19

Bloc 10

Grn 7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-5-2008E.pdf

Check out graph for leader popularity. Dion went from a low of around 10% to over 20% for who would make the best PM. Harper went from a high of around 40% to a low of 32%.

Edited October 5, 2008 by independent

[Wild Bill]

Check out graph for leader popularity. Dion went from a low of around 10% to over 20% for who would make the best PM. Harper went from a high of around 40% to a low of 32%.

Ah, the perils of peaking too early! Still, we have 9 days to go. Lots of time for folks to waver back and forth.

Meanwhile, I'm surprised that no one is talking about this Tuesday, when the CPC intend to reveal their economic platform! This could make a huge difference, either way! Dion's plan is so vague. If the Tories have something definite that appeals to the voters' gut then Harper could peak perfectly in a week at the polls.

However, if it also seems vague and wishy-washy...

[Smallc]

Ah, the perils of peaking too early!

Couldn't you say the same thing about Conservative numbers?

Edited October 5, 2008 by Smallc

[capricorn]

Ah, the perils of peaking too early! Still, we have 9 days to go. Lots of time for folks to waver back and forth.

IMO undecided voters hold the key to the outcome of this election. The fact that the number of undecided voters is so high indicates two things. One, engaged voters are sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to sway their vote. Two, many voters are not yet engaged in the election and will only tune in the week prior to the election.

If the Tories have something definite that appeals to the voters' gut then Harper could peak perfectly in a week at the polls.

We know for a fact that the Conservative base is unshakable, so releasing the platform will not make a difference there. It looks like the Conservatives are hoping that the release of their platform precisely one week before the election will draw support from the high number of undecided voters and soft Liberal supporters.

Much of the news coverage in the last days of the election will be about the Conservative platform. If the media doesn't find too many holes in the platform, this will pay dividends for the Conservatives in the polling booth.

However, if it also seems vague and wishy-washy...

The more compact and clear the platform is, the better. Their spending promises are moderate compared to the other parties. Many Canadians will look at the bottom line as this will indicate to them whether tax increases are on the horizon if the Conservatives are re-elected.

[independent]

Ipsos Reid poll results for second choices for voters take on oct 3

NDP 27%

Liberals 26%

Greens 22%

Bloc 18%

Tories 14%

The Tories biggest chance to improve results is in Quebec where 25% of the Bloc supports have the conservatives as 2nd choice.

The biggest threat for the Liberals is the NDP who are targeting Liberal ridings for the NDP are the 2nd choice.

[Wild Bill]

Couldn't you say the same thing about Conservative numbers?

I did! Who did you think I was talking about?

[Smallc]

I did! Who did you think I was talking about?

Sorry, thought you were talking about Dion going up and then down.

[Visionseeker]

Ipsos Reid poll results for second choices for voters take on oct 3

NDP 27%

Liberals 26%

Greens 22%

Bloc 18%

Tories 14%

The Tories biggest chance to improve results is in Quebec where 25% of the Bloc supports have the conservatives as 2nd choice.

The biggest threat for the Liberals is the NDP who are targeting Liberal ridings for the NDP are the 2nd choice.

Wow! That's a really small minor league for team tory. I hadn't seen those numbers before. Adding to their pain is this Ipsos analysis:

Post debate analysis

"Impressions among those who watched a debate improved or stayed the same for all party leaders – except Prime Minister Stephen Harper."

and further down:

"Only 13% of those who witnessed a debate say that their vote preference changed as a result of what they saw. Those changing their mind most often say they will vote Liberal (36%). Half say they would vote either for the Greens (26%) or the NDP (26%), while just 13% say they would vote Conservative. Just 4% who watched a debate say they would switch their vote to the Bloc Quebecois."

Two things to note:

first, only about one in eight viewers say the debates changed their preference. But that's actually a large number when you realize that the vast majority of viewers of political debates tend to be highly partisan to a given political party. Often times, more than two-thirds of viewers can be regarded as fully committed. However, without the benefit of this being measured by Ipsos, I am merely guessing that a third of soft voters changed their minds following the debate.

Second, while Harper is clearly on the losing end of the switching dynamic, it is possible that the phenomenon will not translate to the elcetorate as a whole. But recent trends are indeed showing significant declines in Conservative support. Nanos' numbers suggest that the tory train has fallen completely off the tracks in Quebec; meaning that growth is highly unlikely and 8 or even all 10 of the seats they gained in 2006 could fall, shutting them out off Quebec completely.

It's never a good thing when a survey's results leave you hoping that the numbers are simply wrong. And I'm sure that's exactly what they're doing in Harper land as they pour over this Ipsos study.

[kengs333]

Harper's nightmare is beginning; last week of the campaign, a campaign that has not gone smoothly, and he's just managing to hold on... and with the usual last minute rush to join the Liberals this should be VERY VERY interesting...

[jdobbin]

Conservative lead now 4%. This is the wrong trend for the governing party.

Nanos today:

CPC 34%

Libs 30%

NDP 19

Bloc 10

Grn 7

There is such a big spread between the polls right now.

At the beginning of the election, I said the Bloc could not be dismissed. Apparently, they have once again risen from the ashes.

I predicted a massive Tory majority based on the trends and said that there was nothing the Liberals could do. I was right about them not being able to do anything. I did say something unexpected could change things.

I indicated that a raid on Tory headquarters would qualify in that regard.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=334825

Anything is possible including another raid on Tory headquarters but it seems unlikely.

Harper chose to go early into elections because there were clouds on the horizon and he wanted to remove all forces internal or external that might take him off script. The byelections could have produced momentum for the Liberals, a new session of Parliament could have similarly put them on the defensive and the election results in the U.S. might influence outcomes.

One of the more important factors Harper wanted to eliminate was the economy.

We all talked about it being a possible problem but I don't think anyone thought it would hit this early when it came to Canada. In some parts we have been pretty smug about out ability to overcome it.

Harper has stuck to a message a of a steady hand on the ship rudder but there is some evidence building that there is uncertainty that the Tories should have the majority support to lead.

With only a week left, we will see if the economic concerns become the biggest influence on the coming vote.

[jdobbin]

Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

In Quebec's battleground polling from Oct. 1-4, which looked at 15 close races in the province, the Conservatives were neck-and-neck with Liberal support and well behind the Bloc Quebecois (brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 poll):

* Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-2)

* Liberal: 22 per cent (+3)

* Conservative: 21 per cent (-1)

* NDP: 13 per cent (+1)

* Green Party: 4 per cent (same)

Quite a change in Quebec.

Harper still does well in Ontario but trending downward.

The new numbers are down five per cent from the Tories' highest mark of 45 per cent in those same ridings in late September. The Conservatives' losses appear to be trending towards the Liberals, who gained a few points in the latest survey: (brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 poll)

* Conservative: 40 per cent (-2)

* Liberals: 28 per cent (+3)

* NDP: 21 per cent (-1)

* Bloc Quebecois: n/a

* Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)

And in B.C.

In British Columbia's 10 battlegrounds, the Tories continue to lead, but their support in the latest poll shows a decline from September's numbers.

Here are the parties' results in B.C. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 poll):

* Conservative: 38 per cent (-2)

* Liberal: 27 per cent (same)

* NDP: 22 per cent (-1)

* Bloc: n/a

* Green Party: 13 per cent (+3)

[Vancouver King]

There is such a big spread between the polls right now.

At the beginning of the election, I said the Bloc could not be dismissed. Apparently, they have once again risen from the ashes.

I predicted a massive Tory majority based on the trends and said that there was nothing the Liberals could do. I was right about them not being able to do anything. I did say something unexpected could change things.

Dobbin, you seem driven to justify an early but inaccurate prediction of a decimated Liberal party. Don't sweat it, you have lots of company in this forum, Liberals as well as Tories.

I mentioned to you a couple of weeks ago that national elections in this country seldom end the way they start and this campaign now appears to carry on that tradition.

My own prediction of another Tory minority might yet prove too generous for the Conservatives.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=334825

Harper chose to go early into elections because there were clouds on the horizon and he wanted to remove all forces internal or external that might take him off script. The by elections could have produced momentum for the Liberals, a new session of Parliament could have similarly put them on the defensive and the election results in the U.S. might influence outcomes.

One of the more important factors Harper wanted to eliminate was the economy.

Absolutely, and his decision to take the plunge before the opposition made the decision for him was great politics. Controlling the agenda while pushing his rivals off balance. Avoiding less than flattering comparisons to a possible Obama presidency. But far and away more important than any other factor was this: If he waited until October, 2009, there was every reason to believe that America, and soon after Canada, would be mired in a very deep recession. No govt wants to fight a campaign with that as a backdrop.

We all talked about it being a possible problem but I don't think anyone thought it would hit this early when it came to Canada.

Some of us emphasized the severity of what is coming and the importance to the Tory brain trust of avoiding it by going early.

A recent tip-off of the scale of carnage most certainly on it's way is the Bank of Canada's emergency pumping of an additional $12 billion into our banks, those same institutions that are supposedly the envy of the world. Bastions of liquidity don't need infusions of this magnitude.

Harper has stuck to a message a of a steady hand on the ship rudder but there is some evidence building that there is uncertainty that the Tories should have the majority support to lead.

With only a week left, we will see if the economic concerns become the biggest influence on the coming vote.

Middle class Canadians, used to ever higher real estate prices and a booming TSX, now have a glimmer of the economic specter on the horizon, a once in a century downturn that will demand all the policy imagination we can muster and compassion for it's economic victims. Harper has a week to convince voters he should be the man to preside over this soon-to-be-shattered economy.

[Riverwind]

Middle class Canadians, used to ever higher real estate prices and a booming TSX, now have a glimmer of the economic specter on the horizon, a once in a century downturn that will demand all the policy imagination we can muster and compassion for it's economic victims. Harper has a week to convince voters he should be the man to preside over this soon-to-be-shattered economy.

Sometimes doing something for the sake of doing something is worse than doing nothing at all. We made be headed for a major glbal slow down but there is nothing governments can do to stop it - Dion's promise to "do something" is meaningless political pandering. All that can be done is being done by the Bank of Canada today.

[normanchateau]

In the latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll, Conservative support has now dwindled to 32%...

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...9dfUB1UWVq6OIzw

Perhaps next time the Conservatives will select a leader who's a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, you seem driven to justify an early but inaccurate prediction of a decimated Liberal party. Don't sweat it, you have lots of company in this forum, Liberals as well as Tories.

I mentioned to you a couple of weeks ago that national elections in this country seldom end the way they start and this campaign now appears to carry on that tradition.

Harper's biggest opponent at the moment seems to be the economy.

The Liberal number remains anemic and the combination of the missteps in Quebec with the arts cuts and crime approach as well as unnerving economic news has put Harper on his heels. The trend in the election was for a decimated Liberal party. I think Harper thought he would capture all of that vote. What is happening is that vote is migrating to other Opposition.

Dion and the Liberals have not really had to do anything. As the saying goes, "if someone is going over a cliff, try to get out of their way."

Dion has been hanging on to the cliff since the campaign started and now Harper is inching towards the edge.

Absolutely, and his decision to take the plunge before the opposition made the decision for him was great politics. Controlling the agenda while pushing his rivals off balance. Avoiding less than flattering comparisons to a possible Obama presidency. But far and away more important than any other factor was this: If he waited until October, 2009, there was every reason to believe that America, and soon after Canada, would be mired in a very deep recession. No govt wants to fight a campaign with that as a backdrop.

With economist reports coming out today suggesting a recession, it compares in some ways to the RCMP announcement of the last election that triggered a downward pull in the polling numbers.

Some of us emphasized the severity of what is coming and the importance to the Tory brain trust of avoiding it by going early.

I did so myself but with the commodities up throughout this past year, it looked like we'd be better placed and our downturn would be more in the manufacturing sector.

A liquidity crisis hits everyone.

A recent tip-off of the scale of carnage most certainly on it's way is the Bank of Canada's emergency pumping of an additional $12 billion into our banks, those same institutions that are supposedly the envy of the world. Bastions of liquidity don't need infusions of this magnitude.

Don't think we've seen the last of it either.

Maybe the Chinese will bail out the market. I wonder if Harper's plan involves selling off resources to the Chinese.

Middle class Canadians, used to ever higher real estate prices and a booming TSX, now have a glimmer of the economic specter on the horizon, a once in a century downturn that will demand all the policy imagination we can muster and compassion for it's economic victims. Harper has a week to convince voters he should be the man to preside over this soon-to-be-shattered economy.

So far his response has seemed defensive.

Edited October 6, 2008 by jdobbin

[Vancouver King]

In the latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll, Conservative support has now dwindled to 32%...

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...9dfUB1UWVq6OIzw

Perhaps next time the Conservatives will select a leader who's a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative.

The fat lady, sensing an irreversible seismic shift taking place across the landscape, begins - for the second time - to warm her vocal chords.

Interesting details from the new Harris-Decima numbers above:

The NDP is tied, within the margin of error, with Conservatives in Ontario.

The NDP now leads all other parties by 5% in Atlantic Canada.

Conservatives in Quebec are stuck at sub-20% levels.

B.C., where new trends are supposed to originate, remains solidly Conservative.

[jdobbin]

Ekos poll numbers up to Sunday.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE4950BI20081006

A larger Ekos poll released on Sunday night has the Conservatives at 35 percent, the Liberals back at 25 percent and the NDP at 19 percent.

Ekos projects that the Conservatives would take 130 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, well short of the 155 needed for a majority but ahead of the 78 projected for the Liberals and 42 for the NDP. The separatist Bloc Quebecois, running only in Quebec, would take 58.

Ekos's survey was the first major one after Canada's election debates last Wednesday and Thursday. Ekos covered Friday through Sunday, while Harris-Decima covered Thursday through Sunday.

[normanchateau]

The fat lady, sensing an irreversible seismic shift taking place across the landscape, begins - for the second time - to warm her vocal chords.

Interesting details from the new Harris-Decima numbers above:

The NDP is tied, within the margin of error, with Conservatives in Ontario.

The NDP now leads all other parties by 5% in Atlantic Canada.

Conservatives in Quebec are stuck at sub-20% levels.

B.C., where new trends are supposed to originate, remains solidly Conservative.

BC was the only province in Canada where the Conservatives actually lost seats both in 2004 and 2006. It won't happen this time even though a majority of British Columbians continue to favour parties other than the right wing Conservatives.