Canadian Political Polls

[M.Dancer]

Look out majority October '09.

Honestly I don't want a majority. A minority CP gov't is one of the best gov't we have had in years. I just want the CP to take care of things till the natural governing party can get their house in order ad get rid of the albatross.

[jdobbin]

News to me.

Certainly Solberg was trying to take credit for it.

[Michael Bluth]

I don't want a majority. A minority CP gov't is one of the best gov't we have had in years. I just want the CP to take care of things till the natural governing party can get their house in order ad get rid of the albatross.

I want the Conservatives to rule until the term 'natural governing party' has been consigned to the dustbin of history.

It's not healthy for any democracy to have a natural governing party. More specifically, for its partisans to truly believe they have a God-given right to govern.

Edited January 10, 2008 by Michael Bluth

[M.Dancer]

Certainly Solberg was trying to take credit for it.

Why shouldn't he. Did he stop the funding? Never the less, 7000 spaces is a disgracefull drop in the budget given the back slapping and horn blowing they did over the daycare programme. I feel conned by the liberals as do most parents.

Matter of fact, I think most Canadians feel conned by the liberals.....and as someone in advertising who got nothing from shawinigate, doubly so....

[jbg]

Honestly I don't want a majority. A minority CP gov't is one of the best gov't we have had in years. I just want the CP to take care of things till the natural governing party can get their house in order ad get rid of the albatross.

Do you enjoy living under a government that, on any given day could be "done like dinner"?

[Wild Bill]

Do you enjoy living under a government that, on any given day could be "done like dinner"?

+1! There is a naive belief among many Canadians that minority governments force some sort of consensus, that they are inherently more democratic. How that can be true is beyond me!

We saw many examples of how minorities actually work in past parliaments. Mostly the situation worked like this: the Liberals were shy a few seats of a majority. The NDP promised them support to stay in power and govern like a majority but only if the Liberals would enact a few planks from the NDP electoral platform. So the party with the LEAST number of seats and the LOWEST percentage of the popular vote gets to have some of their pet beliefs made into the Law of the Land!

In other words, the price for having a majority government is to have the will of the few imposed on the many.

This is democracy? This is a GOOD thing?

[jbg]

We saw many examples of how minorities actually work in past parliaments. Mostly the situation worked like this: the Liberals were shy a few seats of a majority. The NDP promised them support to stay in power and govern like a majority but only if the Liberals would enact a few planks from the NDP electoral platform. So the party with the LEAST number of seats and the LOWEST percentage of the popular vote gets to have some of their pet beliefs made into the Law of the Land!

In other words, the price for having a majority government is to have the will of the few imposed on the many.

This is democracy? This is a GOOD thing?

Are you referreing in particular to the PET minority of 1972-4 and the PMPM minority of 2004-6?

[M.Dancer]

Do you enjoy living under a government that, on any given day could be "done like dinner"?

Yes...best checks and balances we've had in nearly a decade. Instead of pone party driving through agenda they have to reach concensus. I would say that most parties aren't up to that job, but arper seems to be.

[Oleg Bach]

Yes...best checks and balances we've had in nearly a decade. Instead of pone party driving through agenda they have to reach concensus. I would say that most parties aren't up to that job, but arper seems to be.

There is a difference between constructive concensus and useless comprimise. As far as checks and balances...maybe all is generated by the the cheques and concensus is just a mutual agreement to maintain a position that is lucrative but lacking true public service. Seems that there is gloating going on for a job well done. As I mentioned before - when you have a Supreme Court that knows the difference between right and wrong and can actually judge on behalf of the population then get back to me - so far your success is viewed by me as a dismal moral failure.

[Michael Bluth]

Are you referreing in particular to the PET minority of 1972-4 and the PMPM minority of 2004-6?

Both of those are perfect examples of Wild Bill's thesis.

PET foisted PetroCanada on us during his term.

PMPM's first budget as PM was heralded by Layton as Canada's first NDP budget.

[BubberMiley]

It's not healthy for any democracy to have a natural governing party.

How do you vote provincially out there in Oil Country!?

[capricorn]

I think you misread what the pollster said. He said when Parliament is not in session, there are few times for the media and the Opposition to question the government on what they are doing. That is certainly not going to be the case in an election.

I'll misread what I want and you can misread what you want.

It is why notoriously media shy Harper has been trying to court the media in the last weeks.

Excellent tactic. It worked as the Conservatives are up 7% and the Liberals down 2%. He knows how to handle the media to his advantage. He learned well by observing Chretien.

Unfortunately, in an election Harper needs the media and can't avoid them like he'd like to.

Harper didn't avoid year end interviews which were unscripted. Contact with the media during an election will be unscripted as was the Mansbridge interview. As he has demonstrated, Harper does very well with and without a script. Kinda maddening, eh?

[Michael Bluth]

How do you vote provincially out there in Oil Country!?

Agreed it isn't healthy for the PCs to have ruled the province for as long as they have.

The Liberals had a strong leader and came close, for Alberta, in the 1993 election. Unfortunately that leader passed away at a relatively young age. The Liberals have had one credible leader since, but she ran into the Ralph Klein juggernaut in the 2001 election.

I have voted for all three major parties provincially.

I will take a very close look at the Liberals and the team leader Kevin Taft puts together for the next election here. I don't live in a competitive riding so it doesn't really matter too much...

Don't believe Steady Eddie Stelmach is the man to lead the province into the future, but the Liberals don't inspire a lot of confidence either.

Definitely won't be voting NDP or for the rednecked alliance.

[jdobbin]

I'll misread what I want and you can misread what you want.

Excellent. Now you're getting somewhere.

Excellent tactic. It worked as the Conservatives are up 7% and the Liberals down 2%. He knows how to handle the media to his advantage. He learned well by observing Chretien.

The media are waiting in the tall grass for him this coming election.

Harper didn't avoid year end interviews which were unscripted. Contact with the media during an election will be unscripted as was the Mansbridge interview. As he has demonstrated, Harper does very well with and without a script. Kinda maddening, eh?

I never saw a year end interview that wasn't filled with warm eggnog of the season. I fully expect that when the Parliament resumes that Harper will go off script when someone actually poses harder questions to him. He can't help himself. Maddening, isn't it?

[capricorn]

I never saw a year end interview that wasn't filled with warm eggnog of the season.

It's even better when a Prime Minister answers questions directly and truthfully, without a script.

Edited January 11, 2008 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

It's even better when a Prime Minister answers questions directly and truthfully, without a script.

Truthfully is in the eyes of the beholder.

[jbg]

It's even better when a Prime Minister answers questions directly and truthfully, without a script.

Well in a scrum, Chretien did say, truthfully, that "the truth is the truth is the truth".

[Topaz]

From your link.

Bruce Anderson says governments tend to do better when Parliament is not sitting and they're not facing daily attacks from opposition parties that wind up generating news coverage.

"That's probably true for many governments if we went back over time," Anderson said.

"When they're in the House of Commons, when they're debating the issues of the day, there's a better chance that they're going to be on the defensive rather than talking up their agenda."

That's actually very good. That means that in an election campaign when the House is not sitting, the Conservatives can look forward to healthy polling numbers.

With this drop in the polls, I wonder if Dion will stay gun-shy and vote with the government come budget time.

Wasn't Decima's Bruce Anderson, a former lobbyist whose former firm Earnscliffe, ran Harpers election campaign, anyone know

[Michael Bluth]

Wasn't Decima's Bruce Anderson, a former lobbyist whose former firm Earnscliffe, ran Harpers election campaign, anyone know

Not sure if Bruce Anderson was ever part of Earnscliffe.

Earnscliffe has historically been a Liberal firm. Known as the PMO in waiting during the Martin leadership skulduggery.

Even now a majority of the principals in their Ottawa office are Liberals.

[LastViking]

Seeing as Harper has lost 25% of his support in the past few weeks, going from 40 to 30 in the polls, I have to agree.

The coversion of those December polls to Seat Projections confirm the haemorrhaging.

[normanchateau]

The conversion of those December polls to Seat Projections confirm the haemorrhaging.

The trendline claims a Liberal majority if an election occurred in October, 2009. I doubt that Dion will wait that long to bring down the government.

[noahbody]

The trendline claims a Liberal majority if an election occurred in October, 2009. I doubt that Dion will wait that long to bring down the government.

I doubt Dion will be liberal leader in October 2009.

[Michael Bluth]

I doubt Dion will be liberal leader in October 2009.

I think he will. He has to get one kick at the can. It looks a little better than 50/50 that we will make it to the fixed election date.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Ipsos Reid.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...17c&k=81131

Stephane Dion's Liberals have taken a slight lead on the federal Conservatives in public support, based mostly on a surge in Stephen Harper's home province of Alberta, a new poll reveals.

The national survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, found the Liberals switching places with the Conservatives since the last poll two weeks ago. The Grits gained two points to 35 per cent while Tory support slipped a similar margin to 33 per cent. The NDP also dropped two points to 13 per cent while the Greens bumped up one point to nine.

Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said it appears that most of the Grits jump in support, and subsequent slump for the Tories, is a result of the Conservatives declining a remarkable 23 points in Alberta.

"It's the Stelmach effect. We assume people differentiate between the federal and provincial parties even if they have the same name. I think what we see in Alberta is a branding effect because there is no great incentive to be against the Harper government in that province," said Bricker.

But the troubles Premier Ed Stelmach faces in Alberta due to his government's decision to charge higher royalties and taxes in the oil and gas sector are hurting the federal Tories polling numbers in that province. Meanwhile, the Liberals have jumped 20 points to 30 per cent in the federal poll.

The Liberals also maintained their lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and Quebec although dropping points in both provinces. In Ontario, Grit support was 41 per cent, a decline of two points, compared with the Tories with 37 per cent, an increase of four points.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois maintained their lead with 35 per cent support, gaining four points from the last survey. The Grits slipped a point to 26 per cent while the Conservatives stayed in third place with 21 per cent.

Liberals take the lead for the first time in an Ipsos poll since the election. Still a statistical tie though. Huge drops in support from Alberta.

[noahbody]

Latest poll from Ipsos Reid.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...17c&k=81131

Liberals take the lead for the first time in an Ipsos poll since the election. Still a statistical tie though. Huge drops in support from Alberta.

This is the best example ever that polls are worthless. If you think Albertans are going to vote for Dion and his commitment to meet 1990 levels at any expense, you're dreaming, as usual.