Tories Launch Fifth Ad Campaign

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

ts coffers bursting with cash, the Conservative Party of Canada is rolling out its fifth volley of TV ads targeting Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

New Elections Canada figures indicate the Tories have been out-fundraising the Liberals by millions of dollars at a nearly a four-to-one margin -- and they're putting that money to use.

They plan to pummel Dion with their latest ads during sporting events and other TV shows that are especially popular with people who do not follow politics.

The spots will run during an NFL game on Sunday and during the Amazing Race -- a show where contestants chase clues on a worldwide treasure hunt.

"These are targeted to apolitical people,'' said one Conservative insider.

"When Canadians realize that Dion will hit them with a tax increase, his polling numbers will drop even more.''

The Liberal leader said this week that he would consider reversing cuts to the goods-and-services tax and replacing them with income-tax cuts or program spending.

The new Tory ad shows Dion shrugging his shoulders and concludes with a narrator's warning.

It seems the results of the last four ad campaigns was 36% in the polls for the Tories. They don't seem to have had a impact in putting the Tories over the top in support.

[Canuck E Stan]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

It seems the results of the last four ad campaigns was 36% in the polls for the Tories. They don't seem to have had a impact in putting the Tories over the top in support.

Tories (39%) Find It Hard To Break Majority 40% But Continue Strong March In Quebec (30%)

....but they still maintain a twelve-point lead over the Liberals at 27%

I don't see the Liberals with Dion getting back into the game any time soon.

[Moxie]

In Nova Scotia Harper will lose at least three seats, forcing MPs to vote against the constituants wishes was suicide. I still do not understand Harper's mob like leadership style, resistance is futile if you are a borg but the MPs are elected by the people. Keddy and Mackay will feel the backlash for their blind loyality, I can't see either of them getting re-elected.

[old_bold&cold]

Face it, when it comes to Dion anyone who would think he is a leader needs to be tested for mental illness. The fact that the Liberals can not find public funding as a party, speaks more then any poll does. This means that even those who in the past supported the Liberals, are not doing so now. This is losses of grassroots support and will have large implications if an election is ever called. That is why the liberal right now will do anything to have the writ dropped. Their party will implode. This has now gone far past Dion and his lack of leadership. The internal party mechanisms are falling apart, and there is no money to find replacements, or the will for others to step up to the task.

Even in this article it has said about the party's lack of ability to raise money. That is just the tip of the iceberg, and yet it has so much meaning. Even if Dion resigned today, the party would have large problems running a leadership convention, with all the costs associated with it, and then have an election campaigne right after that. I would not be hard to see that the liberals would not be able to gain any power and they would bankrupt the party in the process of these two things happening in quick concession.

The ads that the CPC will run will try to shine the light on these facts and it will definitely not be a good thing for the Liberal party. Either way though Harper is going to get his majority and the liberals are going to take a big fall. The polls will soon show all this once an election is called.

[jdobbin]

Tories (39%) Find It Hard To Break Majority 40% But Continue Strong March In Quebec (30%)

I don't see the Liberals with Dion getting back into the game any time soon.

This is not the latest Iposo poll. I have placed the new poll in the political polls section.

BQ is up strongly. Liberals up 1 point. Tories are the same.

There was not a big boost for the Tories this far from the GST cut.

[Canuck E Stan]

This is not the latest Iposo poll. I have placed the new poll in the political polls section.

BQ is up strongly. Liberals up 1 point. Tories are the same.

There was not a big boost for the Tories this far from the GST cut.

Never said it was the latest......yes, the Tories are the same at 39%,from 4 days previous....still 11% over the Liberals......but for the Liberals 1% up from 27% this could be considered major.

Congratulations should go out to the Liberals and Dion on their big come-back boost in the polls.

[Moxie]

Face it, when it comes to Dion anyone who would think he is a leader needs to be tested for mental illness. The fact that the Liberals can not find public funding as a party, speaks more then any poll does. This means that even those who in the past supported the Liberals, are not doing so now. This is losses of grassroots support and will have large implications if an election is ever called. That is why the liberal right now will do anything to have the writ dropped. Their party will implode. This has now gone far past Dion and his lack of leadership. The internal party mechanisms are falling apart, and there is no money to find replacements, or the will for others to step up to the task.

Even in this article it has said about the party's lack of ability to raise money. That is just the tip of the iceberg, and yet it has so much meaning. Even if Dion resigned today, the party would have large problems running a leadership convention, with all the costs associated with it, and then have an election campaigne right after that. I would not be hard to see that the liberals would not be able to gain any power and they would bankrupt the party in the process of these two things happening in quick concession.

The ads that the CPC will run will try to shine the light on these facts and it will definitely not be a good thing for the Liberal party. Either way though Harper is going to get his majority and the liberals are going to take a big fall. The polls will soon show all this once an election is called.

I don't see Harper getting a majority atall, in fact he's upset faithful life time members of the Conservative Party. The hard right don't like the fact that he hasn't repelled the legislation on Same Sex Marrage. They are really angry that abortion isn't illegal. Lately I see the far left stating their is no difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives. I have to agree policy wise Harper is bland, his ideas are bland his vision for Canada is bland. He might get a minority government but he's not trusted by his own people, if he dosn't do something to distinquish the Conservatives from the Liberals at some point I won't know the difference. I'm not voting for Harper because he's Conservative or I'm conservative I'm voting against the Liberals and the NDP. Many undecided voters feel the same way, we have no "Ideal" party to vote for. Harper works for me now, I don't like him or the way he dismisses anyone's opinion but his own.

The right is starting to sound like the arrogant left, the people of this country decide the future of Canada not the liberals or Conservatives. Beware of arrogance, Politicians are but dogs on a leash and we are their masters. To forget this is to make the same mistake as the Liberals, in their arrogance and ethos of we are "Entitled to lead this country" they forgot the master had the leash. For now Harper is like Buckleys cough syrup, he taste bad but he works. For now.

[jdobbin]

Never said it was the latest......yes, the Tories are the same at 39%,from 4 days previous....still 11% over the Liberals......but for the Liberals 1% up from 27% this could be considered major.

Congratulations should go out to the Liberals and Dion on their big come-back boost in the polls.

I don't think I've ever denied the Liberals are in trouble in the polls. They are doing exceptionally poorly in Quebec.

A few days ago some of the Tory supporters here were crowing that the economic update was going to push the Tories over the top in support. Here we see there has not been a boost. We are still in the minority situation poll-wise that we've seen ever since the election.

[Canuck E Stan]

I don't think I've ever denied the Liberals are in trouble in the polls. They are doing exceptionally poorly in Quebec.

A few days ago some of the Tory supporters here were crowing that the economic update was going to push the Tories over the top in support. Here we see there has not been a boost. We are still in the minority situation poll-wise that we've seen ever since the election.

I personally believe sometimes polls are taken too early from an announcement like this.

People can be slow,and unless you really know what was announced,not spoon feed by the pollster,it just might not have been understood totally by those being polled.

Dion's "I'll raise the GST" won't hit home for a couple of weeks in the polls.How popular will that be?

[ScottSA]

I don't think I've ever denied the Liberals are in trouble in the polls. They are doing exceptionally poorly in Quebec.

A few days ago some of the Tory supporters here were crowing that the economic update was going to push the Tories over the top in support. Here we see there has not been a boost. We are still in the minority situation poll-wise that we've seen ever since the election.

As you surely must know, this is going to take a few weeks to sink in. Probably less than a quarter of the electorate even know there's a cut to the GST at this point, but as people who make large purchases begin to find out and the word spreads, the Tories will get a boost. Not only that, but if an election were called today, all the buildup will come crashing down on the Liberals and quite possibly bury them for a decade of insignificance.

It's really quite pathetic when a minority government can rule like a Chretien era majority because the Liberals are so terrified of an election that they dare not oppose anything. The Libs wear it poorly too, since they promise one week to man the barricades, and wilt the next week, mumbling something about it not being so bad after all.

[jdobbin]

I personally believe sometimes polls are taken too early from an announcement like this.

People can be slow,and unless you really know what was announced,not spoon feed by the pollster,it just might not have been understood totally by those being polled.

Dion's "I'll raise the GST" won't hit home for a couple of weeks in the polls.How popular will that be?

I don't know how popular it will be. Perhaps as popular as the Tories: "We'll raise your income tax and lower your GST?" If GST goes up and people get a $40 billion income tax cut maybe they won't be so upset.

As for the polls, I kept hearing that it would be a few weeks before the first GST cut would move the polls. In the end the Tories sort of stalled at where they are now.

Edited November 3, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

As you surely must know, this is going to take a few weeks to sink in. Probably less than a quarter of the electorate even know there's a cut to the GST at this point, but as people who make large purchases begin to find out and the word spreads, the Tories will get a boost. Not only that, but if an election were called today, all the buildup will come crashing down on the Liberals and quite possibly bury them for a decade of insignificance.

It's really quite pathetic when a minority government can rule like a Chretien era majority because the Liberals are so terrified of an election that they dare not oppose anything. The Libs wear it poorly too, since they promise one week to man the barricades, and wilt the next week, mumbling something about it not being so bad after all.

As I've just mentioned, the last two Tory budgets including the first that lowered the GST did not move the polls into majority territory.

As for the speculations that all will come crashing down as soon as an election happens, who can say? The Tories say there will not be anymore confidence votes in 2007. Flaherty has said there will be no big tax decreases in the next budget. We could see a few months of nuts and bolts governing and issues that could be a little more controversial on the horizon. I guess we will see if Harper can continue to rule like he has a majority. I suspect that the Liberals have reached near the end in terms of letting another vote of confidence go by with abstention being the policy.

There have been several prognosticators on the demise of the Liberal party. One thing is clear is that they are generally poor performers in Opposition and they will have to get their act together if they hope to avoid seeing a Tory majority elected. The reluctance of the public to fully commit to the Tories is the only thing keeping them as just a shade under majority support.

[Michael Bluth]

As you surely must know, this is going to take a few weeks to sink in. Probably less than a quarter of the electorate even know there's a cut to the GST at this point, but as people who make large purchases begin to find out and the word spreads, the Tories will get a boost. Not only that, but if an election were called today, all the buildup will come crashing down on the Liberals and quite possibly bury them for a decade of insignificance.

It's really quite pathetic when a minority government can rule like a Chretien era majority because the Liberals are so terrified of an election that they dare not oppose anything. The Libs wear it poorly too, since they promise one week to man the barricades, and wilt the next week, mumbling something about it not being so bad after all.

At 39% the Conservatives are in majority territory.

That's a bigger percentage of the vote than the Liberals won in their 1997 majority.

[Canuck E Stan]

At 39% the Conservatives are in majority territory.

That's a bigger percentage of the vote than the Liberals won in their 1997 majority.

With the left vote being split three or four ways,39% may well be all that is needed to have a minimum majority.

[Topaz]

No one not even all the media power that the Cons have can see for sure how the voters will vote. It'll depends on what's happening in Afghanistan, which I just read, the Taliban are moving in on the western part of the country, what is happening with the $$$, how bad the auto and other manufactures are getting hit, how many jobs are lost, etc. Politicans know if the voters aren't happy...out they go! So I don't think who has the most money really matters that much and the Cons spending their money on ads against Dion is just a waste because no one really cares anymore except the media shows and that gives them something to talk about.

[jdobbin]

With the left vote being split three or four ways,39% may well be all that is needed to have a minimum majority.

The 39% is not what puts them in majority territory according to Conservative analyst Tom Flanagan. It is a 11% spread between them and the next party.

If they can maintain that, they can win a majority. However, we have only seen that in the Ipsos poll. The Decima poll earlier in the week had only a 4% spread.

Harper himself said a few weeks ago that if an election was held now that a repeat of a minority would happen. The numbers in the polls are a pretty good indication he is right.

[ScottSA]

Harper himself said a few weeks ago that if an election was held now that a repeat of a minority would happen.

What do you expect the smartest PM in recent memory to say? "We're gonna win, suckas!"? It can't come as a surprise to you that Harper says that. He'd say that if he were at 91% and they were sacrificing bulls and building golden statues in his likeness.

And Topaz...you "heard" the taliban were moving into the western provinces? I heard they were getting their asses handed to them. That's what I heard.

[jdobbin]

What do you expect the smartest PM in recent memory to say? "We're gonna win, suckas!"? It can't come as a surprise to you that Harper says that. He'd say that if he were at 91% and they were sacrificing bulls and building golden statues in his likeness.

Several politicians have made the mistake of musing about what to paint 24 Sussex before the election and the public have disappointed them in the actual election.

In Harper's case, if he truly believed he was going to win, he would have called confidence a number of times in the last year and didn't. The truth is that the polls are telling him it isn't a sure thing.

[Michael Bluth]

What do you expect the smartest PM in recent memory to say? "We're gonna win, suckas!"?

Harper learned his lesson in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

He's been keeping his promises and will continue to do so.

The GST has been cut to 5%. Fixed election dates will keep him in office until the fall of 2009 or until Dion grows some cojones. Come on, what are the odds of that?

The ad campaign is a good thing. The Conservatives can keep placing these strategic campaigns periodically between now and the fixed election date. Too bad the Liberals can't compete. Or maybe that is a good thing.

[luvacuppajoe]

I've seen the ads on the Conservatives' website, and I have to admit I'm a bit worried. Dion comes off looking so weak and confused (Mr. Dithers 2.0) that I can see him picking up the sympathy vote.

The Liberals' abstentions as of late are going to add even more ammo to the Tories' ad campaigns once the big guns come out. Those ones will practically write themselves.

But I agree with Michael Bluth and Scott, Harper's learned his lesson in cockiness over polling numbers, he's not going to make that mistake again no matter where his numbers go.

Edited November 3, 2007 by luvacuppajoe

[peijay]

just curious as to why the man who would be king is so worried about someone who is supposedly so very ,very weak. do the reformatives see something that canadians might identify in this man. maybe the fact that he actually cares about people.

[scribblet]

just curious as to why the man who would be king is so worried about someone who is supposedly so very ,very weak. do the reformatives see something that canadians might identify in this man. maybe the fact that he actually cares about people.

Enlighten me as to what a 'reformative' is.

[peijay]

just my name for harpers party. the reform(alliance) run excuse for the conservative party.

[scribblet]

So its a pejorative, which has no bearing on today's party and actually against the board rules.

[old_bold&cold]

While the Liberals ask how many job losses does all this take, and today we have seen that job gains have been 5 times what was expected. So yes the liberals always seem to be pulling some thing out of their butts, but it is not the answer to their problems.

If I were Harper I would pull the plug on all of this come January, but I think he will wait till spring as by then the leberals will be melted down to rabbling mess of incoherrent thoughts. Which is not far from what they stand for today.