Throne Speech October 2007

August1991 · October 15, 2007

This Throne Speech may well turn out to be one of the more dramatic (unless it becomes a wet squib).

It will likely cover these points:

income tax cuts
reduction of interprovincial barriers to trade and to movements of people and capital
environmental policies (Kyoto II)
limitation of the federal power to spend
compensation for forestry workers
mission to Afghanistan
crime measures

Harper has a way of being precise in his statements so I wouldn't expect the usual bland (Liberal) platitudes that we've been used to for the past decade or so.

Dion has made it plain that he wants C-30 (respect of Kyoto) to be re-introduced in Parliament. Harper has said that he will not re-introduce it and instead wants to ignore Kyoto and take an alternative route.

On this point alone, I simply don't see how the Liberals can support this government. On Afghanistan, the Liberals might accept a fudge (given this new panel) but the Bloc and the NDP will not. The Liberals (Dion & Rae) will not accept a compromise on the federal power to spend.

The reduction of interprovincial trade barriers is bound to upset the Bloc, and they'll also argue that their five demands have not been met.

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I have a suspicion that there will be strong debate among Liberals about how to proceed. The backroom types have nothing to lose in an election - they are already in opposition and it's unlikely their prospects will improve. Some MPs will object to an election since they'll lose their seats. Rae and Ignatieff are in a slightly different position. Their best chance at becoming leader is if Dion goes for an election and loses.

Through all of this, I suspect that Dion will go with principle and vote against the government if he feels that the Throne Speech is contrary to what he believes is right for the country. Dion will ignore the Liberal advisors who want him to swallow whatever Harper proposes and delay an election.

It seems to me that Dion has already set the stage for doing this.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion says he's sure Stephen Harper is itching to hit the campaign trail this fall, but that doesn't mean the Grits will give him the excuse he needs to do so.
"It's clear he's looking for an election," Dion said yesterday in an interview on CTV's Question Period.

He signalled he's not eager to help the Prime Minister on his way by voting down the Conservative throne speech that will open a new parliamentary session tomorrow.

"We will look at the throne speech as a whole, as we have always said, and we will think about the interests of Canadians," said Dion.

That could mean the official Opposition will topple the government if its legislative agenda is an "outrageous" one animated by a "very right-wing radical" ideology, said the Liberal leader.

But assuming Harper adopts a more conciliatory tone, Dion said his party would try to "make Parliament work" and let the Tories continue to govern for the time being, even if the Grits don't agree with everything their opponents do.

Toronto Star

IOW, Dion is getting ready to blame Harper for provoking this election and futhermore, Dion is already claiming that Harper's policies are "outrageous" and "very right-wing radical".

Dion is using the same playbook that Chretien and Martin used in the past.

The Speech is scheduled for 7 pm EST tomorrow.

sharkman · October 16, 2007

I tend to agree on how things could play out, and the Liberal brain trust must be getting quite a headache about now. If Dion brings about an election, it would be about par for him to blame Harper.

kengs333 · October 16, 2007

This Throne Speech may well turn out to be one of the more dramatic (unless it becomes a wet squib).

It really doesn't sound as though the throne speech will be as important as the media is making it out to be. The Liberals are falling in the polls and best thing for them to do in the short term is to keep the government alive and keep rebuilding for an election in 2009 or so. Nobody really wants an elections--most provinces have already had one this year--and it will take a few years still for the Conservatives to start getting complacent and corrupt enough that their welcome starts to wear off.

Edited October 16, 2007 by kengs333

mikedavid00 · October 16, 2007

It really doesn't sound as though the throne speech will be as important as the media is making it out to be. The Liberals are falling in the polls and best thing for them to do in the short term is to keep the government alive and keep rebuilding for an election in 2009 or so. Nobody really wants an elections--most provinces have already had one this year--and it will take a few years still for the Conservatives to start getting complacent and corrupt enough that their welcome starts to wear off.

The polls indicate that we DO want an election.

People are now used to living without the Liberal Regime and we need to get the war on soon!

We need to do it now before immigrants take on more ridings.

Let the election begin!! It's time for battle. No one left standing but Harper and a majority by a thin margin.

August1991 · October 16, 2007

It really doesn't sound as though the throne speech will be as important as the media is making it out to be. The Liberals are falling in the polls and best thing for them to do in the short term is to keep the government alive and keep rebuilding for an election in 2009 or so. Nobody really wants an elections--most provinces have already had one this year--and it will take a few years still for the Conservatives to start getting complacent and corrupt enough that their welcome starts to wear off.

I don't know how the Liberals (Dion) could support a throne speech which rejects Kyoto. Dion (or Rae) would never accept a Throne Speech that admitted a limit to the federal spending power.

The simple fact that Dion said on Sunday on CTV that he would only vote against the government if it presented an "outrageous" and "very radical right wing" programme is a set up for when Dion has to vote against. Dion can claim that Harper is not prepared to compromise.

I don't know. Cats always seem to find ways to get through a narrow door. Maybe Dion will pass/ignore the Speech, arguing that the Liberals will only vote when there are concrete measures before them. But Harper seems to have barred this tactic too (with good reason). It is impossible to govern when the opposition re-writes entirely legislation or it holds it up indefinitely in the Senate. Dion might avoid this confidence vote but it will just come back again in a matter of weeks.

As Harper said, it's time to fish or cut bait.

It is possible that Dion will simply cave in and accept what Harper proposes. It just seems to me that that's not Dion's style.

jazzer · October 16, 2007

It is possible that Dion will simply cave in and accept what Harper proposes. It just seems to me that that's not Dion's style.

Yeah, and it's not improble that Harper will set a trap for Dion using the environment issue.

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

Dion has made it plain that he wants C-30 (respect of Kyoto) to be re-introduced in Parliament. Harper has said that he will not re-introduce it and instead wants to ignore Kyoto and take an alternative route.
IOW, Dion is getting ready to blame Harper for provoking this election and futhermore, Dion is already claiming that Harper's policies are "outrageous" and "very right-wing radical".

Dion is using the same playbook that Chretien and Martin used in the past.

The Speech is scheduled for 7 pm EST tomorrow.

The actual vote on the throne speech will have the Liberals abstain in protest. Unless Harper wants to have many of his own members abstain so that they can be defeated, there will be no election.

The Liberals are not ready for an election based on the throne speech. They will pick and choose the issue that makes sense for them. There is plenty in Parliament they can do as Official Opposition to put pressure on the government on the issues.

Even Liberals who are itching for see Dion go down in defeat are probably reconsidering pulling the trigger since it could see every Liberals leadership candidate do down in defeat as well.

Edited October 16, 2007 by jdobbin

Michael Bluth · October 16, 2007

I don't know how the Liberals (Dion) could support a throne speech which rejects Kyoto. Dion (or Rae) would never accept a Throne Speech that admitted a limit to the federal spending power.
It is possible that Dion will simply cave in and accept what Harper proposes. It just seems to me that that's not Dion's style.

Harper is serious about making every bill he presents to Parliament a matter of confidence.

If Dion thinks Harper is going to back down from that pledge he is kidding himself.

The most contentious points of Harper's platform will be presented first.

The Speech from the Throne will get defeated or Dion will look ridiculously bad in supporting it.

Either way it's a win, win for Harper.

August1991 · October 16, 2007

Even Liberals who are itching for see Dion go down in defeat are probably reconsidering pulling the trigger since it could see every Liberals leadership candidate do down in defeat as well.

I think both Rae and Ignatieff will win their seats in urban Toronto.

The actual vote on the throne speech will have the Liberals abstain in protest. Unless Harper wants to have many of his own members abstain so that they can be defeated, there will be no election.

I wouldn't have thought that were possible a week ago but it seems now that Dion might try this. I frankly think however that Canadians would view this badly. An opposition is supposed to oppose. The sight of all those empty seats would somehow be anti-democratic.

The Liberals are not ready for an election based on the throne speech. They will pick and choose the issue that makes sense for them. There is plenty in Parliament they can do as Official Opposition to put pressure on the government on the issues.

Harper seems to have barred that possibility. If the Liberals avoid this first vote by abstaining, they will just be putting off the inevitable.

Keep in mind that the NDP wants an election because Layton thinks that he can make breakthroughs in Montreal and against the Liberals elsewhere. Duceppe wants out and the Bloc cannot be perceived as propping up the Conservatives. Both the Bloc and the NDP will oppose and vote against the government. The Liberals will be stuck holding the bag.

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Rae and Ignatieff are in a curious position. They don't want Dion to lose but in fact, for their own personal interests, they do. (I may be naive but I happen to think that all three are reasonably honourable.)

Furthermore, it's not at all obvious that if Dion by some subterfuge avoids an election now (by compromising any principles he has left), this will place him a better position for an election that will come anyway in, say, six months.

Lastly, Dion may make the valid calculation that Harper's policies are not that popular with Canadians. Harper has had a tough time and he has had to water down many of his positions. Dion may believe that in a campaign, he can reverse these recent polls putting Harper at 40%.

Edited October 16, 2007 by August1991

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

I think both Rae and Ignatieff will win their seats in urban Toronto.
I wouldn't have thought that were possible a week ago but it seems now that Dion might try this. I frankly think however that Canadians would view this badly. An opposition is supposed to oppose. The sight of all those empty seats would somehow be anti-democratic.

Harper seems to have barred that possibility. If the Liberals avoid this first vote by abstaining, they will just be putting off the inevitable.

Keep in mind that the NDP wants an election because Layton thinks that he can make breakthroughs in Montreal and against the Liberals elsewhere. Duceppe wants out and the Bloc cannot be perceived as propping up the Conservatives. Both the Bloc and the NDP will oppose and vote against the government. The Liberals will be stuck holding the bag.

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Rae and Ignatieff are in a curious position. They don't want Dion to lose but in fact, for their own personal interests, they do. (I may be naive but I happen to think that all three are reasonably honourable.)

Furthermore, it's not at all obvious that if Dion by some subterfuge avoids an election now (by compromising any principles he has left), this will place him a better position for an election that will come anyway in, say, six months.

Lastly, Dion may make the valid calculation that Harper's policies are not that popular with Canadians. Harper has had a tough time and he has had to water down many of his positions. Dion may believe that in a campaign, he can reverse these recent polls putting Harper at 40%.

I'm not so confident as you are that the Liberals won't be in for a thrashing if the election is this week. I think Rae, Ignatieff are vulnerable. At the moment, I think it is possible the Liberals could be reduced to fourth place in seat count if the campaign turns into a wash. They may not have anyone who ran for the leadership in the House with such a defeat.

Canuck E Stan · October 16, 2007

I'm not so confident as you are that the Liberals won't be in for a thrashing if the election is this week. I think Rae, Ignatieff are vulnerable. At the moment, I think it is possible the Liberals could be reduced to fourth place in seat count if the campaign turns into a wash. They may not have anyone who ran for the leadership in the House with such a defeat.

That's interesting coming from a staunch Liberal.I was thinking the same thing about Trudeau in Quebec getting a thrashing and not getting in.

Wilber · October 16, 2007

Lastly, Dion may make the valid calculation that Harper's policies are not that popular with Canadians. Harper has had a tough time and he has had to water down many of his positions. Dion may believe that in a campaign, he can reverse these recent polls putting Harper at 40%.

On the other hand, if he is wrong and Canadians are not happy with watered down legislation, they may decide it is time for a majority. Interesting times for sure.

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

I was thinking the same thing about Trudeau in Quebec getting a thrashing and not getting in.

How so? In which election?

Canuck E Stan · October 16, 2007

How so? In which election?

should have been clearer,sorry, refering to Justin.....in the next election.

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

should have been clearer,sorry, refering to Justin.....in the next election.

I have no idea how he will perform there. If it is a wash, there might be only a few Liberals elected in all of Quebec and he would be fighting an uphill battle to win a seat he doesn't presently hold.

August1991 · October 16, 2007

should have been clearer,sorry, refering to Justin.....in the next election.

Under the circumstances, I'd say Justin's seat is safe. The NDP may draw off enough of the Bloc votes to ensure his election.

I think the Conservatives will do well outside of urban centres across Canada. The NDP will do well (better than in the past) against the Liberals in some urban ridings. The NDP may get some Montreal seats from the Bloc.

It wouldn't be a rout. The Liberals would keep 70 seats and the Bloc about 30. This would give the Tories a (bare) majority with the NDP gaining some.

All of this is pure conjecture now of course.

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In Quebec, people are really tired of this old dichotomy and they are looking for a new direction. The Tories offer this, as do the Greens and the NDP.

Incidentally, the Bloc is well prepared for an election. Duceppe recently got near unanimous support in a vote from BQ members. Duceppe is well tuned to federal politics and he seems to know that an election is inevitable. The BQ and PQ are curious in a way. Cognitive dissonance - they simply cannot believe that politics in Quebec are changing.

Edited October 16, 2007 by August1991

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

Under the circumstances, I'd say Justin's seat is safe. The NDP may draw off enough of the Bloc votes to ensure his election.
I think the Conservatives will do well outside of urban centres across Canada. The NDP will do well (better than in the past) against the Liberals in some urban ridings. The NDP may get some Montreal seats from the Bloc.

It wouldn't be a rout. The Liberals would keep 70 seats and the Bloc about 30. This would give the Tories a (bare) majority with the NDP gaining some.

I know that there has only been one poll that has the Tories in a majority at the moment but week after week of bad news has taken its toll. I think you're being optimistic about Liberal fortunes if an election starts this week.

maldon_road · October 16, 2007

Read my comment:

There will no federal election.

The Bloc and NDP will move amendments to the throne speech which the Liberals will oppose. And on the day of the vote to approve the speech the Libs will all be booked sick. :rolleyes:

Edited October 16, 2007 by maldon_road

August1991 · October 16, 2007

There will no federal election.

You're probably right - and it's an easy prediction because if there's an election, everyone's mind will shift to other things. The problem is: how does Dion get there?

Scott Reid offers a solution:

The cold hard truth is that the party needs to improve its prospects before provoking a national election campaign. Which is a shame, because this Prime Minister deserves to be replaced yesterday. In any event, the majority of Canadians who oppose his Conservative vision deserve a better effort than the one that could currently be mounted.
There is no shame in acknowledging that fact and moving past the phony showdown over the looming confidence vote. Last week, the media demanded that Dion reply immediately to Harper's challenge. Instead, he wisely let his house leader speak and took some of the steam out of the Conservatives' stride. He would do well to follow his own calm example this coming week.

The sooner Dion blows off Harper's dare, the sooner he shows that he won't be caught up in the media crush. And the sooner he gets beyond the inevitable criticisms, the sooner Liberal fortunes will begin to rise.

It's true that losing the whip hand of a forced election reduces Liberal flexibility. But that doesn't mean that Harper's stance on climate change is in keeping with the majority of Canadians. It doesn't make his failure to introduce a sustainable jobs and growth plan any less obvious. And it certainly doesn't mean that his vision of a national government that surrenders its power to uphold the national interest is either correct or appealing.

The media want a fight on the throne speech. Instead, give them a fight on two competing visions of Canada: On key policy differences that belie a clash of values and on a sharp collision over the way our federation should operate and what it should aspire to be.

Mr. Dion, this will be a tough week. You'll have to be tougher. Be prompt to say how Liberals will vote and why they won't bring down the government. Be candid. Be clear. And be confident. Then start the process of picking a fight of your own making on the ground of your own choosing.

At moments like this, political parties must assess what is sincerely in their own interest, determine whether that is in keeping with the national interest and then push forward with little regard for opinion page criticism.

The problem with the solution is that the Liberals will lose all crediblity on everything. It is rare to see such a blatant statement of Liberal "values".

Reid in effect is saying: "We can't win an election now so we will do anything to avoid an election, even sell our grandmothers."

Nevertheless, if Dion says it well and soulfully and sounds profoundly sincere, it might work.

maldon_road · October 16, 2007

The problem with the solution is that the Liberals will lose all credibility on everything. It is rare to see such a blatant statement of Liberal "values".
Reid in effect is saying: "We can't win an election now so we will do anything to avoid an election, even sell our grandmothers."

Nevertheless, if Dion says it well and soulfully and sounds profoundly sincere, it might work.

The real problem is the environment. If the throne speech is fuzzy on global warming and the Libs let Harper off the hook then instead of Mr Green Dion becomes Mr Gray. A laughing stock, in effect.

Keepitsimple · October 16, 2007

It has repeatedly been said on CBC and in Liberal rags like the Star that Dion is a man of great integrity and character - Jim Travers often says this. While he is probably a very nice man, integrity and character are better tested when having to make tough decisions. Dion has only recently been thrust into such positions. We're going to see whether Mr. Dion's integrity will be put aside for political expedience. Will he be in favour of a throne speech that will obviously go against his stated principles? What does integrity mean anyway? Doing what you believe is right? Doing what's right for your party? Doing what's right for the country? I think we'll be seeing how a nice man's integrity gets comprimised in the rough and tumble world of politics.

Pliny · October 16, 2007

Read my comment:
There will no federal election.

The Bloc and NDP will move amendments to the throne speech which the Liberals will oppose. And on the day of the vote to approve the speech the Libs will all be booked sick.

I tend to agree. The Liberals are in a quandary at present. Chretien used to bedevil the Conservatives by calling elections whenever they were being pilloried in the press. Such as, when Stockwell Day was leader and trying to be cool on his seadoo.

I think that is the job of the media in Canada, especially the CBC. Harper managed to override all the media criticism because of the financial irregularities of the Liberals which could no longer be ignored - a-and was probably promoted in the media only because of in-fighting within the party as to who would take the hemlock. Otherwise, Adscam would have drifted away like the HRDC scandal. Who loses a billion dollars and then runs for re-election and wins? Only a Liberal could do that and all the while hold their head up high.

Bottom line - the media will make the throne speech a hohum affair to save the Liberals from being embarrassed at the polls. Not to say there won't be the usual rejection from opposition parties - there just won't be any fanfare about it. The media will report on it and drop it the next day.

kengs333 · October 16, 2007

On the other hand, if he is wrong and Canadians are not happy with watered down legislation, they may decide it is time for a majority. Interesting times for sure.

You mean legislation that reflects the wishes of the 60% plus of the electorate that didn't vote for him? It seems to me that legislation derived from co-operation and consensus is more productive. Legislation that is imposed by majority governments (often elected by the minority of the electorate) often tends to get thrown out when a new regime is elected.

fellowtraveller · October 16, 2007

Is it possible that Dion will surprise us all and roll the dice on an election?

There are a coupe of reasons for thinking he may.

At present, the most likely result is a Tory Minority. If Dion waits, he risks a Tory majority. And any way he looks at it - he is unlikely to ever be Prime Minister. And he knows that the knives are out, and that he will be dumped before another election. He is done,and I think he knows it.. He may as well get it over with, have an election and quit before he is fired.

kengs333 · October 16, 2007

It has repeatedly been said on CBC and in Liberal rags like the Star that Dion is a man of great integrity and character - Jim Travers often says this. While he is probably a very nice man, integrity and character are better tested when having to make tough decisions. Dion has only recently been thrust into such positions. We're going to see whether Mr. Dion's integrity will be put aside for political expedience. Will he be in favour of a throne speech that will obviously go against his stated principles? What does integrity mean anyway? Doing what you believe is right? Doing what's right for your party? Doing what's right for the country? I think we'll be seeing how a nice man's integrity gets comprimised in the rough and tumble world of politics.

Not many people get to where Dion is at by being a "very nice man". Given the situation with the party, there's not much that he really can do, and he knows it. He doesn't have the backing, nor is the party strong enough, for him to talk as tough as he would like to. So the best he can do is grin and bear it, and wait for the inevitable.