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geoffrey

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Everything posted by geoffrey

  1. Be careful with the TSX... it's heavily weighted towards materials and energy, and both have been on a rally in recent months. At $80 oil and $1,000 gold, the TSX is very healthy. Look at sub-indicies of the TSX and the picture isn't as sunny. Real-estate (REITs, etc.), retail and technology (though that's been doing better lately) are all still way down. Our big 5 banks were always fine and as a result, they recovered quickly. I still remain concerned with CIBC and I would caution investment in that firm. Stock prices also move inverse to interest rates... lower rates encourage individuals to pay MORE for an equity... the market hasn't fully priced in the interest rate impacts of inflation over the next 3-5 years. Notably, the 5 year best offer mortgage from the big 5 banks has increased 0.50% in the last week. This is the beginning of the market realising these rates are not priced in. Next will be the markets. Higher rates increase the required return in absolute terms for the investor to invest in the company. If earnings are stable, to increase returns the price of the stock needs to decline. If you believe that rates are on the rise signficantly, there are ways to play this into your portfolio. Unfortunately, there is no short bond ETFs in Canada. There is a few good ones in the US though, just be aware of your currency risks. TBT (Proshares Ultra-short 20+ ETF) is my favourite. Just be aware this is a leveraged fund and is highly volatile (high duration bonds leveraged 2x). Do your research and this investment may not be appropriate for your purposes.
  2. Ultimately, Washington will bail them out and it will all be ok. What's another $20-30b on Obama's cash printing mission?
  3. Nah, optional has an administration cost carried by the taxpayer. Just abolish it. People need to be accountible for themselves. EI is one thing, welfare another. But CPP actually takes a certain percentage of your earnings and invests it in the markets for you. Why can't people do it themselves? CPP is the ultimate in Ottawa hand-holding. Returns are geared towards older investors, I earn way more on my portfolio as I'm more open to risk due to my age. An individual could take the same 5-ish% of their income that CPP takes and invest it themselves in some bond mutual fund and earn the same return. Not rocket science. It makes no sense to have CPP, other than that some people cannot be responsible citizens.
  4. That's absurd! I owe Canada nothing! I employ Canadians and I've paid taxes for several years, from the first year I legally could. Canada owes me! Why the hell do I owe Canada? And why do I owe Canada more than anyone else? What a ridiculous concept.
  5. Have you read Iggy's body of work? Or do you blindly support people? Iggy is very pro-torture, very American (he refers to himself as an American numerous times in speeches and in his literature). You should really read The Lesser Evil, Blood and Belonging and American Exceptionalism and Human Rights. Knowing your political outlook, I'm sure you'll be campaigning against him once your done.
  6. That doesn't mean you pay 33% of your earnings. Alot of GDP is tax exempt, so that's not a reasonable calculation. Individuals in Canada do not earn 100% of GDP, so you can't use that number. I don't make a huge amount of money, and I can tell you my personal tax burden (in Alberta, the happiest tax place in Canada) is considerably over 40%. Do you pay taxes? Or are you a student? The reality is that we pay too much in taxes. There are important things that taxes support and fund. But the vast majority of taxes are used in transfers to individuals. The social support system has grown so huge that many don't have to work and can easily feed off the ignorance of others. Society also has a duty to me to responsibly spend my tax dollars. Tax spending should be to the benefit of the country, not to individual interests. Unfortunately, that's not the way it is in Canada. Anyways, I find the only people that are happy about taxes are those that don't pay them.
  7. I hate to say it, but I somewhat agree with Borg here. Just stop maintaining the road and move the border elsewhere. We can't expect our frontline public safety officers to not carry guns just because the Indians don't like them (on the white guys, guns are ok for Indians to carry). The Indian police forces carry guns after all. There is no negotiation here. Why should there be? Guards with guns or you lose the economic benefits of having a crossing. I don't find it suprising that a group that is easily amongst the top smugglers of product across the borders is asking for unarmed, unprotected border guards. Let the cartels set the rules. Duh.
  8. June 6th this year: http://www.fraserinstitute.org/newsandevents/news/6736.aspx Three days earlier than last year! I still find it oddly disgusting that I work 5 full months of the year strictly for the benefit of others. I suppose I use SOME of those tax dollars that are spent (roads... and uhhh.... yup). But since the vast majority of government spending is transfers to individuals and transfers to provinces OTHER than my own, I can easily say that 4 of those 5 months are definitely working for others. It's a sad reflection on the inefficencies of government and the welfare state. Is the incentive system broken in Canada when working will cost you 40 cents on the dollar? More if your married and a second earner entering the workforce. My tax freedom day will be spent writing a level of the CFA exam, in order for me to earn more money to contribute (unwillingly) to others in Canada. What a generous guy I am.
  9. That's his strategy of course! Then he'll marry Betty.
  10. Iggy is way closer to Bush in ideology than Harper could dream to be. How do you sleep at night? How have you become so good at lying to yourself KingIggy? Your man supported fervently the invasion of Iraq, the torture of prisoners and calls Ukrainans sub-human terms. Iggy is a hardcore Bush-type. Big war, big government. Let's roll. That's what he's all about. He even calls himself an American. Your Harper/Bush tie ups simply don't hold water. Iggy is your man to compare to Bush. They could be best of friends. They stand for the same things.
  11. By the quality of your responses to criticism, I'm sure your mental capacity must be below the average conservatives. Great response. Criticism? Nah. Just ignore and dismiss everyone has idiots. That's funny.
  12. US President Obama: I don't know, but I think this is the first President that referred to the Koran as a foreign policy guide? I can tell you the Koran didn't tell Bush or Clinton anything. Weird how he referred to "us". Made me uncomfortable when I watched it.
  13. Missed this thread... I personally, for the first time in my brief history, would prefer to do business in Canada than the US right now. Obama is currently destroying the United States business environment. Creditors have no protection and everything is so arbitrary. This is not good for business. I would bet that the US drops in this ranking next year.
  14. There is a difference between a star Minister that has been very strong in performing her tasks having an aide leave rather boring AECL documents at CTV and a bumbling Minister that left critical top secret foreign affairs documents at the house of an associate of organized crime. Big different. He's very consistent in that the two scenarios are not at all the same. I don't pretend to be the second coming of Fuddle Duddle.
  15. Aren't we in a recession? Doesn't Ignatieff have better things to do? He pretends to be Lord and Savoir, some brilliant academic. But really, he's as scum as the rest. He takes his first chance to roll in the dirt with glee. The difference is that he doesn't realise the trash that he is. Go back to the US.
  16. Up until the CPPIB's year end, the DJIA had a negative yield over the last 10 years as a result of the crash. These guys are pretty kick ass. If you want to compare to say the mid-term DEX (medium term corporate bonds), then ya, they are a little behind. But with their private placement work and real estate, that's not realistic. So you expect them to exactly know when the market is at the top and sell everything? Wow. That's pretty high expectations. I hope all your bank funds and ETFs did that too... oh wait. They didn't! No one did! But these guys prevented losses to the extent that we've seen elsewhere. So they deserve a bonus for that. But a much higher 10-year return than the more comparable equity indexes would have provided. Yes, correct. They beat their benchmark. That means they outperformed the market. Good on them. You can't expect superhuman abilities because these guys are government workers. They did better than most banks, investment houses, whatever. They deserve compensation for that. If the market moves 10% and they provide 6% return, that's worse than losing 10% when the market lost 20%. It's RELATIVE to the market that compensation is based. I'd give these boys a big raise for their work.
  17. I don't think that's what August was saying. Instead of confronting the issue, you twist the statement so you can answer it from the position most easy argued by your worldview. Very Chretien like. Find me an industry expert that quoted 2 million jobs. That's flat out BS. People will lose their jobs either way. A bailout just distorts the market. Productive workers earning reasonable salaries at Toyota and Honda will be fire now because they can't fill the market share of unproductive workers earning massive salaries at GM. Why? Because the government provided GM a subsidy of $14,000 per vehicle sale. Can't compete with that. Saves 20,000 jobs at GM, kills jobs at Toyota. The part makers would have just produced parts for the competitors filling the void. The same number of vehicles would be sold with or without GM, and the same number of replacement parts made. 2 million is an absolute lie and I'm sure you just picked that up out of space. Provide at least one, perferably more (since you said EXPERTS) source for that. Now it's 100,000? What? Nah. Still too high. No one complained with oil was sold out to the Americans for a dime in the 80's when we were suffering out West. Trudeau just told us to shove it. Time for Ontario to shove it. Grow up and produce some modern goods. If Ontario experts to have manufacturing big, out of date vehicles as a cornerstone of their economy, they're screwed.
  18. This guy is pretty harmless. He's not been accused of spying against Canada in any way. He will certainly face severe punishment and probably death upon returning to Russia.
  19. Raitt gate? Aaahhhhhahahahahah!
  20. If Iggy was in power, he'd spend more. He keeps on Harper for not spending fast enough. So really, what would he do to not have a deficit? We know Iggy would be first in line behind Bush in Iraq. We know he's behind Afghanistan. So we'd be spending even more fighting in Iraq if Iggy was the man. So really, where does he balance the budget? By raising taxes? Oh ya. That's it. He's going to crank up our taxes like you've never seen before. You want that? Or are you such a brainwashed hack that you can't see past your little red flag waving on your front lawn?
  21. Secret foreign intelligence documents left with a biker, and cabinet discussions about Chalk River being left at CTV (who broadcast Secret information... legal?) are two very different things.
  22. Apparently it's safer to build a landfill upon an aquifier, since the positive pressure doesn't allow leakage (water leaks INTO the dump, not out). No big deal. I'm convinced with the environmental scientists saying that. If some hippie doesn't understand the science, that's ok, but doesn't stop progress or a safer dumping solution. Science before emotion children.
  23. Obama is going to make FDR look like a conservative once he's done with the country. So is Michigan. Hence the bailout. Yup! I don't think Canada is at risk credit rating wise, but the US probably is. And the UK is seriously hooped. Mortgage rates in Canada are definitely on the rise. I am currently variable, but will be changing that in a hurry. I'd strongly advise people in Canada to not hold US denominated assets over the next few years (unless you currency hedge).
  24. This guy has it perfectly. Why should the government support or recognize any arrangement? No point. Let people organize as they wish.
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