Bakunin

Some things are hard to understand... the ADQ lost some support in the montreal area Crop 34 % PLQ 28 % PQ 25 % ADQ Leger marketing 35 % PLQ 29% PQ 26% ADQ CTV 31 % PQ 30 % PLQ 28 % ADQ But the thing is the PLQ has only 26% of the francophone vote is vote is such concentrated that they won some county with 80-90% of the vote in montreal and you will ask me so what ? well it mean outside montreal they are 3rd in the vote, local polls show the ADQ would sweep most of liberals county in the quebec region, the PQ would sweep most of the rest wich make it almost impossible for them to have a majority government and they aren't even sure they will win a minority government. Its really a county by county war and often it depend on the division of the vote since its a 3way race.

Oh well, i don't know if we can count the liberal dead but out of a 20 circoncription polls, the PLQ lose almost all of what they have to the ADQ and the PQ keep the one they have.

I don't beleive he would do that. If he intervene, im pretty sure he will have trouble with his supporters and thats why he said he wouldn't. But lets wait 4 more day and we will know.

Im from shefford and still hesitating on what ill do, i may vote adq to teach a lesson to the liberals and make sure the adq win this county, anyway evry interesting liberal candidate have been excluded from the charest cabinet, other than that ive never loved them. On the other hand, im still a bit affraid of the adq innexperimented team, they don't have the team it takes to make the change they want to do. I don't necessarly think they need a good team to form a good government but Mario Dumont frustrate me because he want to change so many thing but when it comes to reality, when the journalist ask him how he will do it, it looks like he doesn't have a clue... He has never been minister, im not sure but i think none of his candidate has ever been minister or some kind of experience with politics. If only he could tell us how he would change thing instead of what he would change... Its a little bit like the habs fan, they all want to tell bob gainey what change needs to be done, but in reality, none of their idea pass the reality test...

I think its not a bad budget, its refreshing. Id like them to spend less, cut the fat, reduce the size of the state alot more then repay the debt faster. For once, the government will let the province do their job and concentrate on improving their effectivmess. However, i think their are not doing enough for environment, i afraid of what they could do socially if they have a majority government, im not a social conservativism fan thats why i think a conservative minority government is more likly to behave and concentrate on economic conservativism so im happy they did not fall. After all its too soon to go into election again... lets wait one more year.

Well, the campain is alot about opportunism, at this point charest don't know what to do to get his vote back, the adq want real defusion now after being for the fusion in the past. Boisclair wich is right wing 3rd way style want to reunite the left wing that went over to the green party and qs. What we are not talking much is that the 28 march, it could be the end of the career of jean charest or boisclair or less likly dumont. This race is not over, tomorow is the budget what will it look like, i wonder what will happend, what if there is federal election do you think people will be happy about it ?

I think it is an intelligent strategy from the pq/bloc, while the plq has no strategy and is unorganized, the pq try to unite the progressive who are afraid of the conservative movement, Evry tendency has his opposite tendency, they will polarize the vote. They are numberous to be afraid of the conservative and they will go vote. Just getting 3-4% form the green party and the quebec solidaire party could give them a majority government. Im not saying they would steal ADQ's vote but they could stop his momentum, in other word for the fisrt time since 40 year the election would be left vs right and not federalist vs sovreignist. But there is also the aftermath of the election, the ADQ and the conservative movement is becoming stronger and stronger and i beleive it could change dramatically the political map in quebec. We never know maybe it could last an entire century, we could have sereval minority government and more important it would dramatically change the conservative party in canada giving them more articulate politician a solid base with stronghold in the quebec region. And i don't know if you realized but the left vs right debate, the PLQ and PLC are right in the middle, with the right chief, they can either dominate their two opposant with the bad one they can be squeezed in between, if we look at the Federal intention vote in quebec, the PLC have been 3rd since harper have been elected, it could become the same on the provincial scene.

Mario Dumont just confirmed he his opposed to coalition, he prefer the federal way.

I don't think so, whoever has the most seat win. Just like for the federal, the npd and the bloc did not decide who became prime minister. Especially with dumont that has to deal with soft nationalist and federalist in his party, a coalition is not only a risk to start an intern war but it does not help his party wich would prefer another election in 1 year. Anyway, those seat repartition are imo out of date. Im pretty sure crop or leger marketing will make a national poll that will cover evry county since now its the only way to understand who can win the election, we don'T know maybe the adq could have the most seats with 30%...

imagine how close it is... a government by 6 seats... at this point you can't lose a candidate !

New poll !!! Leger marketing PLQ: 33% PQ: 30% ADQ: 30% At this point, anyone can win...

QS and green party have no chance to get a seat. Jean Charest campain is falling appart, the momentum has shifted, we can look at the media that where sure he would win the election and how well he managed to turn things in his favor in 2006-2007, now they are on his back saying how he look tired, how he lost the debate and now how evrything he does seem to be the wrong things to do. Its hard to explain those things, its like you have the momentum and suddently out of nowhere you lose it, you know it, the others know it. And now evryone is looking at Charest saying how he lost the momentum. Well he's not the first, Paul martin lost it, Bernard landry lost it, Turner lost it and a lot of people did. From now on, The ADQ and the PQ have as much chance to win the election if not more than the PLQ.

This is the funniest thing of the debate, the memo is not much important or compromising but in an electoral campain it doesn't matter, on the cyberpresse website they are already calling it "mr dumont's nuclear bomb" and i think the journalist will play the 2003 game, even if its not compromising, evrywhere charest will go the journalist will only talk about that and it will hurt his campain just like he did to bernard landry in 2003. Mario dumont successfully shifted the campain, now lets wait and see the result in the next polls.

That's nothing new to the debate, he his what he his, an urban technocrat. The thing is that during a campain, most tv journalist become crazy, they want an hollywood like election and either if the document is right or not, its like the parizeau thing in 2003, people don't care who's right, they will look at charest and say that he clearly lost the debate and his campain is slowly falling apart and charest will have to defend himself and when you defend yourself your not gaining vote, our trying to maintain them and its really hard to turn the campain, his best chance is the federal budget. I predict the exact same thing as 2003, except i don't think the pq will have a majority government because i doubt the adq will lose support in quebec region.

Charest was good in 2003, people expected alot today, he failed imo. Dumont had a hard time facing boisclair but he did pretty well against charest. Boisclair attacked the whole time, he did better than i expected, he didn't make his program look good but he made the 2 other program look bad. What we will hear tomorow from the debate ? The Document that dumont used against charest i bet Landry is laughing out loud right now.

Pierre Paradis and Jean Charest have an history together, he's an ancient minister and runned for the liberal leadership campain. Charest did not give a place in his government.

PLQ: 33% PQ: 29% ADQ:26% The adq support seem strong so i guess a majority government become less likly.

R-C This is a good example of bad journalism. Her husband recently died and she promised to her kid to go to florida to change their mind. IMO, this campain is way out of control...

Leger marketing PLQ: 36% +2% PQ: 29% +3% ADQ: 25% +3% Only 4% between the adq and the pq.

Well if we look at the polls, the soverignty is at 48% wich is quite high because a few years ago it was stuck at 45%, however if you remember the federal election, well the same thing is happenning, the quebec city region is being taken over by the ADQ, it will be an adq vs plq battle. I don't see how the PQ could stop the bleeding, imo, at this point the lower the PQ does in that region the better it is for them because it mean the PLQ won't win in that region, then its almost certain there will be a minority government and any party could win it. The ADQ voted yes in 1995, as of now, nobody knows where mario dumont stands exactly, he keep saying he is not federalist or sovreignist, he call himself an autonomist and want to limit federal spending, create a quebec constitution, rename quebec for "Autonomous states of Quebec" and rappatriate federal power like taxe perception and etc... However most quebecker realise that what he wants couldn't be accepted by the federal government and it would most likly be the status quo.

Leger Marketing PLQ: 34% PQ: 26% ADQ: 22% QS: 6% PV: 5% The adq is clearly going up. However like i said, i beleive that during the last week of the election, people will truly decide what to do, they may decide to get rid of the PLQ wich is stuck at 34%. Then either the PQ or the ADQ would lost substancial support.

That website's prediction is misleading since it is based on an average of recent polls and then used for simple seat projections.The ADQ has the potential to be a spoiler in this election. I think it will take more votes from the PQ than the PLQ. The effect will be PLQ seats won with 40% of the vote or less. Let's see how the campaign unrolls though. People are just starting to turn their attention to it. Its so hard to tell, i think the recent drop of the PQ went to the adq and i beleive the PQ is more at risk if the ADQ go up but there are other things to consider. I don't think that QS and the green party will do as good as we see them in the poll. I beleive the vote they lose will most likly go to the PQ if they make a good campain. I beleive we will see a repetition of the 2003 campain, after the debate, in the last week people will really decide what they want. Another question, will the ADQ suffer yet again when people come down to the poll ? it is a possibility. Or if Dumont get in front of Boisclair, the pq could collapse.

http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/ PQ : 61 seats PLQ : 51 seats ADQ: 13 seats a minority government by 3 seats.

double post