ReeferMadness

I would never claim to be an expert on the NDP platform - I'm just going based on my perceptions of the campaign. It's a shame that it became about niqabs and that hurt the NDP so badly. Looking forward, the NDP needs to be strong in negotiating with a Liberal minority government, first and foremost around electoral reform. I hope they stand for PR generally, not just MMP. If there's a big fight between the MMP crowd and the STV crowd, we all lose. If we get PR, it will change the political landscape and we can all vote for what we want.

And if the Conservatives brought this up in a thoughtful, mature way that invited respectful debate (as I understood they did in Quebec), he wouldn't come across as a race-baiting ass. Instead, he brought in an Australian with a reputation for divisive race-baiting politics and within the space of a week, he started talking up the niqab issues (both the citizenship ceremony and the public service) and followed it up with the ridiculous "barbaric cultural practices hotline. To most people outside of the loyal base, that looks like politics of fear and division. It's all about context. You can go and lick your wounds and complain that Harper is being treated unfairly - but I think most people see it pretty much exactly as it is.

electionprediction.org and votetogether both say it's a Liberal walk in the park. Obviously, you think there's an NDP resurgence? Or Conservative. 308 and election-atlas say Liberal as well.

What do you mean?

That wonderful candidate Mary Lou Babineau is going to win?

their policy on the senate is ridiculous, their stand on provincial relationships is unfortunate (will lead to further decentralization, which will eventually lead to failure of the country).

Balanced budgets (at least over the long term) are a good idea but the NDP became defined by it. The problem I see with the NDP is that they're crowding the middle and have abandoned their traditional principles. I don't recall them (or anyone except the Greens) having anything for the poor. They didn't talk about health care much. Canadians ideological leanings have changed over the last several decades as have most in the western world. We are still suffering with the fallout of Reagan and Thatcher and Friedman and the fall of communism. There's an accepted dogma that governments can't do anything well and the only right way is lower taxes, fewer regulations and lower trade barriers. It's a huge failure of imagination in my view.

If you have all parties representing the "core view", then you leave large parts of the population with no meaningful representation. This is undemocratic. This is a completely ideological viewpoint. Unions, minimum wage, crown corporations and environmental law - all of these things and more come from a social democratic view of the world. They are not inherently evil and neither is the foundation ideology.

Harper's efforts to steal elections are much more despicable than the sponsorship scandal, IMO. It's less odious to steal money than it is to steal democracy.

You think all parties should only represent the centre? Who should socialists vote for? Not that the NDP have really represented anything socialist in a long time...

Where?

Nobody in polling land has seriously suggested that it is likely there is a Liberal majority. It's always a possibility but only an outside chance. There's also an outside chance of another Conservative majority.

I think that's the wrong question at this point. We need MP's who are empowered, not ones who are simply captive to party platforms.

I balance the poll projections (which are mostly top down mathematical models that have historically underestimated Conservative numbers) with electionprediction.org, which is bottom up analysis. Also, IIRC, polling on voting from advance polls show a Conservative lead at this point. Nobody really knows what happens when people show up to vote tomorrow but a Liberal majority is very unlikely.

I would take my chances with a Liberal majority before I accepted a Conservative minority - but I don't think it will come to that. In order of likelihood, here's how I see tomorrow's results 1. Liberal minority 2. Conservative minority 3. Liberal majority 4. Conservative majority 5. NDP minority I don't see any potential for an NDP majority.

According to Polltracker, a Liberal majority is an outside possibility. But so is a Conservative majority.

You seem to be the only one calling for a Liberal majority.

Yes. And aside from the Conservative base, most people agree that is the best possible outcome at this time.

Liberals won't take a majority unless they get over 40% and that's completely unlikely. You should be more worried about the Conservatives sneaking back in with a minority and then playing their famous games.

Maybe if Jack Layton had lived, he would be PM. Mulcair is too much like Harper - no likability. I also think there were a bunch of strategic blunders including the balanced budget, which left Mulcair looking like a Conservative wannabe. I think the real question is what does the NDP want to be? It has a history of being a party of taking a principled stand for labor and the poor. In that role, I think it has contributed a lot to Canada. It seems like the brain trust thought they could supplant the Liberals and be a centrist party. I don't understand the point - if they want to replace the Liberals, they will become the Liberals.

And I'm pointing out it isn't just me, it's most independent commentators, even conservative ones. Andrew Coyne. Conrad Black. Rafe Mair. International media. There were two editorials in the National Post yesterday that lambasted Harper for the pathetic spectacle with the Ford family. None of these guys are in the pocket of the Liberals or NDP. There are very few people these days outside of the partisan base that have good things to say about Stephen Harper's style. The only logical defense I've heard of him lately is he's been fiscally responsible (and even that's debatable).

Let's agree that things have gotten progressively worse. I think that Harper has taken things to a level previously unseen in Canada - more like the politics in the USA.

Thanks for the input from Finland. Do you have a race-baiting, divisive, lying Prime Minister over there?

And we already have a remedy that's accessible by billionaires - it's called the courts. Why do we give corporations special secret tribunals whose rulings can't be appealed?

I don't think he's brilliant but he's not an idiot. I read somewhere that most often the best leaders are of slightly above average intelligence because they can relate better to most people than extremely bright people. It can also mean that they need to rely on others instead of trying to do everything themselves. I just hope that Trudeau will rely more on his cabinet and caucus (assuming he is PM next week) and not his PMO.