maplesyrup

The Grits are pretty shrewd. They'll survive, perhaps with a diminshed seat count, next time we go to the polls. The best we can realistically hope for is a minority government.

Results of Compas Poll released today CPC 26% Lib 44% NDP 19%

If the Liberals don't think they can obtain a majority government, they could well delay the election. It's tricky business entering into a coalition. A party can get burned. I have seen it happen that a party props up another for a year or two, while the bigger party rebuilds, and then the big party pulls the plug and gets reelected as a majority government. Wish I knew how to take these party support percentages and transfer them into a projection of seats. Once I have some sort of projection of probable seats, they I would comment on possible coalition.

Let's take a bit of a look back in recent history and see if we can determine any trends with these Ipsos-Reid poll percentages (I've taken this data off another website, I trust it's accurate): Apr 27/03 Bloc 9 CPC* 18 Lib 50 NDP 10 June 6/03 Bloc 9 CPC* 29 Lib 45 NDP 11 Oct 6/03 Bloc 9 CPC* 27 Lib 47 NDP 12 Dec 6/03 Bloc 9 CPC* 24 Lib 43 NDP 15 Dec 14/03 Bloc 9 CPC 21 Lib 48 NDP 14 Jan 24/04 Bloc 10 CPC 19 Lib 48 NDP 16 Feb 13/04 Bloc 10 CPC 24 Lib 39 NDP 18 *Denotes combined All & PC That 9% drop in supportfor the Liberals in the past 3 weeks is unusually large. I think we will need another poll or two to confirm whether it is going to stay or not. One thing I've noticed is that the Bloc and the Liberals are almost tied in Quebec. Liberals have several seats that are predominately anglophone and they usually win these seats by big majorities, therefore this would seem to indicate that the Bloc are going to pick up the majority of the seats in Quebec. Interesting turn of events. Another thing these stats show is the NDP going from 10% to 18% support. That's an 80 % increase in support in approximately 10 months. Jack Layton has said he would like to go into the election with 20% support - the NDP are almost there. Now a difficult part of the analysis is where is each party's strength is. Is it rural or city core, or suburban. I think the NDP strenth is usually in the city core. If the NDP vote is concentrated maybe they will pick up more seats than if their support was scattered. Are we going to have three parties in serious contention for a large number of seats? Who do you expect to be the official opposition? What about CPC? Will all CPC supporters coalesce around the winner no matter who that is? If Harper wins what will the red Tories do?

Feb 13 2004 Ipsos-Reid Opinion Poll Results Canada Bloc 10% CPC 24% Lib 39% NDP 18% BC CPC 35% Lib 27% NDP 22% AB CPC 50% Lib 28% NDP 16% SK/MA CPC 23% Lib 33% NDP 33% ON CPC 25% Lib 47% NDP 22% QC Bloc 39% CPc 5% Lib 40% NDP 8% AC CPC 33% Lib 42% NDP 19%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2052 39% Liberal (down 9 from 48 24% CPC (up 5 from 19) 18% NDP (up 2 from 16) 10% BQ (unchanged) 05% Green (up 1 from 4) The Liberals have suffered most in British Columbia (27%, down 15 points from 42%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%, down 13 points from 46%). Ontario has also seen a substantial drop in Liberal support (47%, down 10 points from 57%), as has Alberta (28%, down 7 points from 35%) and Quebec (40%, down 5 points from 45%). But voter support is more stable in and Atlantic Canada (42%, down 1 point from 43%). Conservative support has risen most in British Columbia (35%, up 15 points from 20%), trailed by Ontario (25%, up 7 points from 18%), Alberta (50%, up 3 points from 47%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%, up 3 points from 20%), and Quebec (5%, up 2 points from 3%). Conservative support has actually dropped in Atlantic Canada (33%, down 4 points from 37%). The NDP has gained most in Saskatchewan (33%, up 9 points from 24%), followed by Ontario (22%, up 5 points from 17%), Alberta (16%, up 3 points from 13%), Quebec (8%, up 2 points from 6%), and Atlantic Canada (19%, up 2 points from 17%). NDP support has actually gone down in British Columbia (22%, down 5 points from 27%).

Well the Liberal civil war has started and the gloves came off today. We've had anonymous Martin sources blaming Chretien. We've had threats of lawsiuts in retaliation. And we've had a senator threaten Martin if he tries to blame Chretien. I wonder what the other parties are up to. Oh yea, Belinda is in Quebec practicing her French.

Ok folks.....poll coming out this weekend. Please get your forecasts in now.

Well, it's been a tumultulous couple of weeks in Canadian politics. Do you think there will be any impact on the next opinion poll? The last opinion (Compas) poll showed: Bloc 9% CPC 19% Lib 49% NDP 17% Other 6% My forecast for the next opinion poll is: Bloc 10% CPC 21% Lib 46% NDP 18% Other 5% What's your forecast?

Nonsense. The reality is there is no oil in North Korea. We need the United Nations involvement here, not some another mess that the US creates, and then the rest of the world has to go in and clean up like Iraq.

For the first time since they got elected in 1993, I believe the Liberals are in political trouble with this erupting scandal. Will they still go to the polls right away, or will they wait hoping that things will blow over? If they wait they allow time for the new CPC to gell. I still think they will go right away, but I do not believe they will get a majority government. The CBC went out and visited 3 ridings today including PM Martin's riding in the Montreal area. Judging by the comments of the folks that live there, PM Martin might be in trouble in his own riding.

I thought Tony did well.

Another one for NDP Bill Blaikie: Martin is starting to sound more and more like the piano player in the old saloon who said he didn't know what was going upstairs.

At one time we used to have something called Ministerial Accountability in Canada. PM Paul Martin should resign. :angry:

Realistically, I wonder what kind of an impact Belinda not participating in the debate today is going to have on her political fortunes. Obviously her campaign team have taken that into consideration, and figured it's worth the risk. She will make up for it in the other party debates, I presume.

Pell......precisely.

Arar's wife weighs offers to run for federal Liberals and New Democrats STEPHEN THORNE http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._on_na/ndp_arar OTTAWA (CP) - The indefatigable wife of Maher Arar, the Syrian-born immigrant who was deported by American authorities to face imprisonment and torture in his homeland, says she is considering offers to run for the federal Liberals and New Democrats in an election that could come within weeks.

This is a very intriguing proposal which I'm sure will garner a lot of support Clement plan: No tax for young Conservative candidate would base system on lifetime income - with first $250,000 free Tom Blackwell, with files from Jonathan Chevreau National Post February 10, 2004 http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpos...dd-e213c7bbba43 'Young Canadians would not pay a cent of tax until their lifetime income reaches $250,000 under a "radical" overhaul of the income tax system to be proposed today by Tony Clement, the Conservative leadership candidate. Mr. Clement said yesterday he would make the system flatter and simpler. For those who have earned a quarter-million dollars, tax rates would be based on their accumulated lifetime income rather than on how much they took in during a given 12 months. He billed the plan as an attack on the brain drain, saying tax-free status would convince Canadians in the first years of their careers to stay in the country rather than search out greener pastures in the United States and elsewhere. "I believe that as Conservatives, we run into a trap. The trap is that we believe in tax cuts for tax cuts' sake," the former Ontario health minister said. "But that allows our political opposition, be it NDP or Liberal, to say, 'That's tax cuts for your friends or tax cuts for the rich.' This is a tax cut for the future, for young people, giving them a head start in life."

This certainly is an impressive display of support for Belinda. Nothing has changed my mind so far. Belinda will win on the first count of the ballots. -from bourque website http://www.belinda.ca/Belinda/english/endorsers.shtml Belinda Endorsers We Believe Belinda Can Unite Our Party, Reach out to Mainstream Canadians, and Win. Alberta Rod Love Alberta Co-Chair Morten Paulsen Alberta Co-Chair British Columbia John Aisenstat British Columbia Co-Manager Dr. James Carson British Columbia CA National Council Member for BC Tim J. Crowhurst British Columbia Co-Manager John Cummins British Columbia Co-Chair / MP Delta - South Richmond Patrick Kinsella British Columbia Co-Chair Val Meredith British Columbia MP South Surrey - White Rock - Langley Tom Siddon British Columbia Former Minister Manitoba Len Derkach Manitoba Former Minister Jim Downey Manitoba Former Deputy Premier Myma Driedger Manitoba MLA Charleswood Gary Filmon Manitoba Former Premier Jonathan Lyon Manitoba Hugh McFadyen Manitoba Co-Chair Mike Richards Manitoba Co-Chair Heather Stefanson Manitoba MLA Tuxedo Eric Stefanson Manitoba Former Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance New Brunswick Barbara Baird New Brunswick Former Leader Margaret-Ann Blaney New Brunswick MLA / Minister of Training and Employment Development and Minister responsible for the Status of Women Jody Carr New Brunswick MLA / Caucus Chair Erminie Cohen New Brunswick Former Senator Madeleine Dubé New Brunswick MLA / Minister of Education Eric Ferguson New Brunswick Former MP Dale Graham New Brunswick MLA / Deputy Premier and Minister of Supply and Services/Co-Chair Noel Kinsella New Brunswick Senator/Counsel Omer Léger New Brunswick Former Provincial Cabinet Minister L. Joan MacAlpine New Brunswick MLA / Minister of Tourism and Parks Nancy McKay New Brunswick Provincial Candidate of Record Percy Mockler New Brunswick Minister of Intergovernmental and International Relations / Minister responsible for Service New Brunswick / Minister responsible for the Culture and Sport Secretariat / Minister responsible for the Francophonie / Co-Chair Rose-May Poirier New Brunswick Minister of Human Resources Michael Read New Brunswick Co-ordinator Jeannot Volpé New Brunswick Minister of Finance / Minister responsible for the New Brunswick Liquor Corporation / Minister responsible for the New Brunswick Investment Management Corporation, and Minister responsible for the Lotteries Commission of New Brunswick Newfoundland And Labrador Joan Burke Newfoundland and Labrador MHA / Minister of Human Resources and Employment and Minister Responsible for the Status of Women Ed Byrne Newfoundland and Labrador MHA / Minister of Mines and Energy / Minister of Forest Resources and Agrifoods / Government House Leader Jack Byrne Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Kilbride / Minister of Municipal and Provincial Affairs and Minister Responsible for the Newfoundland and Labrador Housing Corporation Wayne Clarke Newfoundland and Labrador Organizer Kathy Goudie Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Kathy Dunderdale Newfoundland and Labrador MHA / Minister of Industry, Trade and Rural Development Jim Hodder Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Fabian Manning Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Tom Marshall Newfoundland and Labrador MHA / Minister of Justice and Attorney General Sheila Osborne Newfoundland and Labrador MHA John Ottenheimer Newfoundland and Labrador MHA / Minister of Education and Minister of Youth Services and Post-secondary Education Bob Ridgley Newfoundland and Labrador MHA Nova Scotia John Buchanan Nova Scotia Senator / Former Premier Bill Casey Nova Scotia MP Cumberland - Colchester Cecil Clarke Nova Scotia MLA / Minister of Energy Gerald J. Comeau Nova Scotia Senator Michael Forestall Nova Scotia Senator Ontario Bob Bateman Ontario Riding President, Sudbury Patrick Boyer Ontario Former MP Diane Bubanko Ontario President, Mississauga-Erindale Dr. John Cole Ontario Former MP Nola Crewe Ontario Riding President, Toronto-Danforth William Davis Ontario Former Premier Con Di Nino Ontario Senator Leo Duguay Ontario Former MP Janet Ecker Ontario Former Minister of Finance Trevor J. Eyton Ontario Senator Janelle Feldstein Ontario Board Member of Riding Jean Fletcher Ontario Board Member of Riding Mike Gonsalves Ontario Riding President, Scarborough-Agincourt Doug Earle Ontario PC Ontario Board Kevin P. Gallagher Ontario Co-Chair Mike Harris Ontario Former Premier David Haslam Ontario Candidate of Record Carol Jamieson Ontario Organizer Ken Kalopsis Ontario Co-Chair Per Homer Ontario Riding President, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Al MacDonald Ontario Former MPP, Nipissing Steve Masnyk Ontario Riding President, Etobicoke Centre Scott Searle Ontario Riding President, Ottawa-Orleans Bhupinder Singh Khroad Ontario Riding President Stephen Sparling Ontario Director, PCCF David Strycharz Ontario Candidate of Record, Parkdale - High Park Danny Varaich Ontario Riding President, Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale Tian White Ontario Former PCYF Michael Wilson Ontario President of OPCYA Prince Edward Island Wilfred Arsenault Prince Edward Island MLA Michael Currie Prince Edward Island Minister of Development and Technology, MLA Georgetown - Baldwin's Road Mildred Dover Prince Edward Island Minister of Education Wes MacAleer Prince Edward Island MLA Elmer MacFadyen Prince Edward Island MLA / Minister of Community and Cultural Affairs David McKenna Prince Edward Island MLA Peter McQuaid Prince Edward Island Co-Chair Andy Mooney Prince Edward Island MLA / Deputy Speaker Gail Shea Prince Edward Island MLA / Minister of Transportation and Public Works and Minister Responsible for the Status of Women Quebec David Angus Quebec Senator Patrick Doyon Quebec Former President of AJPCQ Jose Nicolas Quebec Campaign Manager P.C. Nolin Quebec Senator Luc Ouellet Quebec Co-Chair Dany Renauld Quebec Co-Chair Saskatchewan Rich Gabruch Saskatchewan Co-Chair Len Gustafson Saskatchewan Senator James F. Rybchuk Saskatchewan Co-Chair Youth Dave Forestell Youth Co-Chair Aaron Lee-Wudrick Youth Co-Chair

Today, with the exposure of the blatant Liberal corruption, is unique, so here's another: CYC Peter MacKay concerning PM Martin in the House of Commons Question Period. "Was he in denial, was he incompetent, or was he in a trance?"

BB....you are correct about Jack's Dad. Politics, like the legal profession, is an incestuous game, it seems

Responding to the Auditor-General's Report on corruption in our Canadian governmnet: NDP's Bill Blaikie: "It's a bad day to be a Liberal, but it's a sad day to be a Canadian." :angry:

Pell....thanks for the history lesson. Did you know that Jack Layton's grandfather was a member of the Union Nationale Government?

Two reasons: 1 - it's just natural for PM Martin. Martin's real world is with the corporate elite (right wing). Having Bono, Kofi Annan, etc. around is strictly for show. (It is just more feign lefts, to make sure not too many left Liberals go wandering off to the NDP.) 2 - PM Martin's biggest threat is from the right, the CPC if they ever get their act together. Once the election is over, with another Liberal majority government, the Martin Liberals will bring in so many right wing policies it will make your head spin.

It appears that every single issue that might cause the Martin Liberals grief, during the forecast upcoming election, is being put out of sight, either through a public/judicial inquiry, or a referral to the Supreme Court, including the A-G's report. Initially I was in favour of having an election right away, but now I'm beginning to wonder if Canadians would be better served by holding off on the election until we get some answers. My answers to your questons are no to all by-the-way. The problem is that presently most Canadians don't see a credible alternative to our governing Liberals. There is a feeling of helplessness permeating our country, I believe. PM Martin was Finance Minister during this entire period. Either he knew and is lying about what he knew, or he didn't know, and if he didn't know, then he is incompetent. This is a Liberal party scandal. How can the RCMP investigate the criminal aspect to this abuse of $250,000,000 when they are named in the report?