maplesyrup

former Premier of New Brunswick Frank McKenna aet to run for the Martin Liberals http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...Story/National/ The Liberals are definitely puting up a show of force in the Maritimes. I wonder if Peter MacKay is going to even win his seat.

Logs indicate several aides talked to Novak Bush Aides Testify in Leak Probe Grand Jury Called McClellan, 2 Others http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A...anguage=printer 'The logs indicate that several White House officials talked to columnist Robert D. Novak shortly before July 14, when he published a column quoting "two senior administration officials" saying that Plame, "an agency operative on weapons of mass destruction," had suggested her husband for a mission to Niger to investigate whether Iraq tried to acquire uranium there as part of an effort to develop nuclear weapons.' http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/10/politics...pagewanted=2&hp 'At first, the investigation seemed narrowly focused on trying to identify who at the White House provided the information about Ms. Plame to Mr. Novak. But more recently, prosecutors have focused on a Sept. 28, 2003, article in The Washington Post, which said the newspaper had been told that "yesterday, a senior administration official said that before Novak's column ran, two top White House officials called at least six Washington journalists and disclosed the identity and occupation of Wilson's wife."' This is an extremely serious issue as a CIA operative was "outed" in the process.

A couple of weeks ago, Ed Broadbent's Liberal opponent in Ottawa Centre, PM Martin buddy, Richard Mahoney, came out publically in support of a public inquiry for Maher Arar. Ed Broadbent and the NDP had been clammering for a public inquiry for quite awhile. All of a sudden Mahoney goes public demading one as well. Sure enough, within a couple of days, the Liberals launched a public inquiry. It was quite obvious that it was a set up, and that Mahoney already had already been told a public inquiry was imminent when he went public with his request. Now today, I ran across the following article today by Paul Wells of Mcleans. I highly doubt PM Martin is cutting his buddy Mahoney loose, so what is really going on here? Huh? http://www.macleans.ca/paulwells One hopes news editors in Ottawa didn't miss an extraordinary moment during today's Question Period. It would have been easy to miss. But it was absolutely the damnedest thing. Bear with me while I walk you through it. Marcel Proulx, the Liberal MP for Hull-Aylmer, asked Hélène Scherrer, the new Heritage Minister, what she thought of the controversy surrounding Marcel Beaudry, who runs the National Capital Commission in a manner that reminds many Ottawa citizens of the kind of authoritarianism that made Singapore what it is today. Scherrer gets up and says, in effect: The NCC board backs Beaudry; this government backs the board. He's not going anywhere. Now here's the thing: Richard Mahoney, the Liberals' star candidate in Ottawa Centre — the guy facing Ed Broadbent at the next election — is campaigning, more or less fulltime, to have Beaudry dumped. Here's the relevant section on his website (which carries the horribly depressing slogan "The Future Starts Here." Yes, Rick, that's the funny thing about the future. No matter where you are, no matter when, that damned future keeps starting. That's kind of how the future works. But I digress). So we have here the specatacle of Paul Martin's minister standing in Parliament, which is physically located in Rick Mahoney's riding, and cutting Paul Martin's candidate off at the knees. Which leads to two questions: (1) Why? (2) Is that really what happened? Or is the whole thing Kabuki theatre: has Mahoney staked out a "maverick" position while the PMO and the Ottawa-region caucus help him out by skating him offside, so he can look like he's Brave Enough to Stand Up to the PMO? My colleague John Geddes called Proulx, the MP who lobbed the lob in question, to ask what the little QP tableau was all about. He said that last week, when the Liberals' National Capital Region caucus decided to publicly back Beaudry, they also decided one of them should put the question to Scherrer. So she had advance notice. Isn't it a bit odd to have the capital-region Grits and the PM's minister lining up against the party's handpicked candidate in a vital electoral battleground? Well, Proulx told Geddes he suspects Mahoney is folding his hand. "I don't think Mr. Mahoney is as strongly calling for [beaudry's resignation] at this time. I think maybe Mr. Mahoney has realized that he was directing his energies in the wrong place." Hmm.

BB....I agree with you, the CPC is not going to grow with the perception that the vast majority of Canadians have of Harper, if he is chosen leader. Initially I thought Belinda was going to win, and right now I still think she is going to win. But as you say things can change. Tony I believe has a golden opportunity to substantially raise his profile on Wednesday, when he debates alone with Harper on Don Newman's CBC show Politics, Is the debate at 5 PM (ET) ? I'm not sure about this, but I wonder if scientific polls are released showing Harper in the lead, perhaps that would help to stampede a lot of Stronach supporters to Tony. If the polls show Stronach in the lead then it might be a harder sell for Tony's chances. The problem at the moment is that Tony is everyone's second choice, but he won't be around for a second count, if he finishes last in the first count. Pell....I'm not sure Tony immediately winning his seat is all that important. Also voters in the ridings where leaders run usually make allowances out of consideration. John Turner is a good example of that when he ran in Vancouver Quadra. Jack Layton has brought the NDP from 8% to 17% support, depending on which poll you view, in the past year, all from outside the House of Commons. Which would you prefer for the NDP, 20 more seats or Jack Layton MP if you had to make a choice? I read an interesting story today about Ed Broadbent's first election. They had to have a judicial recount and he won because the votes of people who voted with ball point pens were disallowed. At that time management used ball point pens but the employees they supervised didn't.

The one problem with this scenario of Tony for leader is that every poll I have seen shows him running third. So even if no one get 50% + 1 on the first vote tally, Tony will have been eliminated.

I haven't seen anything yet that detracts from my original forecast of Belinda winning this on the first count of the preferential ballot, although it might take the second count to swing it, if that is the correct terminology.

I could be wrong but my understanding is that this restriction on third party advertising is only during the election campaign period.

The Supreme Court is to begin hearing this week into whether or not third parties can spend money during election campaigns. The people in favour of third party ads say that denying them is an infringement on free speech. The opponents of third party ads say that they will eliminate fairness in the voting process, as there are spending limits during election campaigns. I am against these third party ads because it means weatlhy interests like the National Citizen's Coalition will be able to unduly influence the voters, or buy the election. Non partisan my ass. What say you?

I wonder what PM Martin meant when he referred to fixing some "irritants" concerning the gun registry. Was he talking about people opposed to the program? I wish someone had asked him "what do you mean by irritants?"

Last week, the first week back in the House of Commons saw PM Martin under relentless attack over his CSL interests. Although the Martin Liberals tried to bury the CSL news with a flury of other announcements, it looks like this story is far from over. Martin firm more foreign than Canadian More than half of ships fly foreign flags, despite PM's claim company pays taxes here and is 'fundamentally' Canadian http://www.canada.com/ottawa/ottawacitizen...4d-5c7c7e6390fd This week, on Tuesday, Sheila Fraser, Auditor General is rumoured to be going to drope a bombshell about government corruption. What will the Martin Liberals do this week to try and deflect all this unwanted attention? Martin government braces for bad news in auditor's report coming Tuesday By JIM BROWN http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2004/02.../340827-cp.html At the heart of the controversy is a $40-million sponsorship program put together by Ottawa in the wake of the 1995 referendum. Although it was ostensibly a national program, it concentrated primarily on Quebec, plastering flags and banners at a wide range of sports and cultural events. Critics say the program was a thinly veiled way to funnel federal dollars to Liberal-friendly advertising and consulting firms. Fraser, in a scathing report in 2002, concluded that bureaucrats at Public Works broke nearly "every rule in the book" in awarding contracts worth $1.5 million to Groupaction Marketing of Montreal. and Big federal contracts By LOUISE ELLIOTT http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2004/02.../340786-cp.html A lobbying and consulting firm with close ties to Prime Minister Paul Martin received more than $800,000 in government contracts during the struggle for the Liberal party's leadership, according to documents obtained under the Access to Information Act.

Liberals are hoping to make inroads in Alberta. True Grits take run at Alliance stronghold Vocal critic of Chretien may enter race David Heyman Calgary Herald http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?i...FD-9B290AD943BF I think it would be healthy if a few more Liberals get elected in Alberta as that province needs to be brought into mainstream Canadian politics.

Ian Waddell, former BC Cabinet Minister, and former MP, is going to contest the NDP nomination to run in Vancouver Kingsway. It will be close but if Ian gets the nomination, he should win the riding for the NDP (I'm assuming here that he will be getting a lot of support from Jack Layton's wife, Olivia Chow). 2000 election results Vancouver Kingsway (LIB 3,520) xSophia Leung LIB 16,117 Alice Wong CA 11,075 Victor Wong NDP 5,924 Kanman Wong PC 1,805 Connie Fogal CAP 1,200 Phillip Petrik GRN 1,009 Elwyn Patterson COM 168 Donna Petersen ML 125 1997 election results Vancouver Kingsway (New riding) 182:183 M. Sophia Leung Lib 13,400 Victor Wong NDP 9,921 Raymond Leung Ref 5,954 Kan Wong PC 1,287 Gim Huey Ind 835 Irene Schmidt Grn 763 Steven Beck NL 202 Donna Petersen M-L 158 Roger Annis Ind 108 David Tsai Ind 83

Actually the latest polls showed the Cons had dropped from 37% support to only 10% support in the Maritimes. Those defections must have really hurt the Cons.

TTP.....I agree with you. No matter who the Democrats run against Bush, the Dems will win. I heard that Bush bombed on "Meet the Press", and has made matters worse for himself by changing his story on Iraq once again. I think you will see a resurgence of Democrats in Congress as well.

Clement's problem is will he survive to the second count of ballots.

BB, as an outsider looking in on this new Conservative party, my impression was that neither Harper or MacKay should be running. A merger is difficult enough as it is, some one more neutral at the top would be better for harmony. What I don't understand though is why are these primarily PC MPs jumping ship, before the new leader is chosen? What is that all about? If it's that bad already, and the leader hasn't even been chosen yet, what is coming if Harper wins. I think the party will implode. I don't think getting delegates is the same as getting the general population to support you. Perhaps media attention isn't what is required at the moment. Tony Clement has Chuck Strahl and John Crosbie organizing his campaign. They must know what they are doing, I would think.

Now that Parliament has resumed and we are facing an election shortly, it might be fun to try our hand at forecasting the results. Here's mine, do you wish to share yours? My forecast: Alberta: 28 Bloc Con 20 Lib 8 NDP British Columbia: 36 Bloc Con 20 Lib 8 NDP 8 Manitoba: 14 Bloc Con 4 Lib 5 NDP 5 New Brunswick: 10 Bloc Con Lib 10 NDP Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 Bloc Con Lib 7 NDP Northwest Territories: 1 Bloc Con Lib NDP 1 Nova Scotia: 11 Bloc Con Lib 11 NDP Nunavut: 1 Bloc Con Lib NDP 1 Ontario: 106 Bloc Con 20 Lib 76 NDP 10 Prince Edward Island: 4 Bloc Con Lib 4 NDP Quebec: 75 Bloc 37 Con Lib 38 NDP Saskatchewan: 14 Bloc Con 4 Lib 5 NDP 5 Yukon: 1 Bloc Con 1 Lib NDP Canada: 308 (155 required for majority gov't) Bloc 37 Con 69 Lib 172 NDP 30

President Bush's support has gone from 65% to 47% recently. What happened? Is it the lack of jobs? Is it the deficit? Is it the war on Iraq? Is it the body bag count? Is it no WMD? Is it no proper heathcare system? Is it the growing gap between the poor and the rich? Just thought, I'd ask.

I agree that we are far away from the US election. While Bush has dropped almost 20% in the polls recently, from 65% to now 47% support (latest), a lot depends on what the opposition does. BTW for first time since elected Bush is going on Meet the Press this Sunday. My impression is that Dean was the one who really cracked Bush's armour, with his relentless attacks primarily on the White House Iraq policies. He has been consistent from the beginning with his opposition to the War, the other mainstream candidates have just jumped on the bandwagon, once they saw which way the wind was blowing. Curious about one thing - did Senator Kennedy support the war on Iraq as well? If the Democratic establishment now takes away the nomination and gives it to Kerry, which is what appears to be happening, I wonder if Americans are going to see that much difference bewtween Kerry and Bush. Nader is probably going to run, and this time he will probably get 5% of the popular vote (3% last time), especially if Dean is not the Democratic candidate, which could end up denying the presidency to the Democrats. Hopefully Nader does run to try and force a fundamental change in democratic party policies. If I were a Dean supporter, and Dean does not get the nomination, I would vote for Nader. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much difference between the two mainstream parties, apart from their respective logos. Just two wealthy groups fighting for more power, than they already have in society. Unfortunately the reality of politics is "who gets the next contract"

The Progressive Democratic Alliance in BC, not sure about exact name of the party, I believe, was formed by former BC Liberal Leader Gordon Wilson, after he was desposed as Liberal leader, after being caught having an affair with Judy Tiabagi (sp?). They eventually got married. Eventually Gordon Wilson joined the Glen Clark's NDP.

Social Credit ran 9 candidates in 1988 http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/pr...guage=E&srt=ASC

Harper has baggage in Quebec Stephen Harper was on the wrong side of Meech Lake and is to the right of many Quebecers on gay marriage and the Iraq war by DON MacPHERSON The Gazette http://www.canada.com/montreal/montrealgaz...76-57EB21195E3E This editorial that is in today's Montreal Gazette raises a lot of potential obstacles for Conservatives in Quebec. It will be interesting to see who actually acquires the bulk of the delegate points in la Belle Province for the leadership race. My hunch is, inspite of her lack of fluency in French at the moment, Belinda will sweep this province, pas comme les autrres.

I thought Belinda was one of the key people behind the scenes that got the two parties to merge. Was I wrong about that?

Glorification of the military I agree with Pell. Why is a military person's death, or a police officer's death ,any more important than Joe citizen? It isn't actually, but the media makes it appear that it is. Cpl Marphy's death is tragic for such a young man, but so are many others, as Pell states.

There is an article about the poll in today's Globe and Mail which I discovered later on, and actually it says that Harper is leading with delegate support. "Campaign workers for Conservative Party of Canada leadership contender Belinda Stronach have buttressed their argument that opponent Stephen Harper will not sell to the public, citing a poll suggesting that their candidate is more popular. The survey, conducted by the firm of Ms. Stronach's campaign director, indicates that Canadians who did not identify a political preference are more willing to give Ms. Stronach a try than they would Mr. Harper or candidate Tony Clement. Respondents were asked who they would vote for if they were members of the party. Forty-one per cent would choose Ms. Stronach, 28 per cent Mr. Harper and 19 per cent Mr. Clement. The poll was conducted from Jan. 26 to Jan. 30, and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20." I'm supportive of Belinda's campaign because I think if she wins, it will bring the new Conservatives more to the centre, where they will have better chances at the polls. That's why the liberals usually win. I guess it just depends on whether you want to win or not.