Vancouver King

No, but be warned, your banishment from the kingdom is under active review.

They do. They just turn up their noses at people who actually admit to being Tim Horton's customers. OK, that's funny. EVERYONE I know goes to Tim Horton's. I have never heard of it being the right's territory exclusively or any political affiliation or association. What do you smoke to make up stuff like that? You don't know many people from Vancouver then as there is not a single Tim Horton's within the city limits -save coffee kiosks in gas stations. Shameful, as Timmy offers a fine chicken salad sandwich, soup of the day and medium coffee for $7. You must redouble your efforts not to judge others based on your own shortcomings - looking down on the Tim Hortons crowd has never entered my mind, on the contrary, they will decide the coming election in ridings that ring greater Toronto and the suburbs of the GVRD.

Tories miss an important aspect of the PM's taxpayer-paid hair primper. Harper's handlers had carefully nurtured the "hockey dad" image but the moment suburbia learned this macho profile was supplemented with a wardrobe steward/coif teaser, well, let's just say it's made the Tim Horton crowd a bit queasy. Who is the Tim Horton crowd - enquiring minds would like to know. The Tim Horton crowd occupies the electoral real estate between bed rock conservative rural constituencies and the major urban areas still so elusive to Tories.

Tories miss an important aspect of the PM's taxpayer-paid hair primper. Harper's handlers had carefully nurtured the "hockey dad" image but the moment suburbia learned this macho profile was supplemented with a wardrobe steward/coif teaser, well, let's just say it's made the Tim Horton crowd a bit queasy.

The timing of that election will be determined in large part by party standings in the latest polls.

Defender of orthodox liberalism? This is the first time I've seen the word liberalism occupy the same sentence as Conrad Black. The legions of unwashed, particularly his laid off employees, had him pegged politically as somewhat to the right of Vlad the Impaler. He undoubtedly wore such antipathy as a badge of honor.

James Travers in the Star had this to say: "Day-by-day the prisoner narrative changes, leaving the lasting impression that Conservatives, like the military, consider prisoners a nuisance and miss the point that their humane treatment is an essential manifestation of the values Canadians are in Afghanistan dying to transplant." http://www.thestar.com/article/209872

People's pocketbooks were bursting in January, '06, the treasury was awash in surpluses and there was an SUV in every driveway. Did that help the Liberals? Btw, is it too early to begin to refer to Tories as the 'second party'?

It might be premature to equate the surging Greens with Liberal and Conservative levels of support, although it's 13% showing in this latest sounding borders on the astonishing. If Stephen Harper needed any further evidence that global warming/the environment is not just a flavor of the month voter issue, this Green percentage is it. The Tories risk defeat with thinly veiled oil patch priorities at the expense of the public interest.

This poll didn't take in the global warming legislation late in the week. It is still pretty much the same result as the election. Nor did it take into account this week's high profile disarray on the Tory front bench and a deepening Afghanistan morass with prisoner mistreatment now added to body bags, lack of exit strategy and civilian oversight.

Explain? Two over arching sentiments determined the last election. 'Throw the corrupt Liberals out' and 'a Conservative govt is scary' competed for adherents and the Liberal message lost. Thus their atonement on the Opposition benches and new leadership. But what of the second dynamic, that says the Tories were too scary to entrust with an unencumbered govt? Has this sentiment evaporated based on Harper's performance so far in govt? The answer, to New Democrats and Greens, is an unqualified no. From an income tax increase on the working poor to environmental policy seemingly drafted by OPEC, New Democrats and Greens have every reason to fear a Harper majority. In the coming campaign If the polls indicate Conservatives are near majority territory, expect far left support to begin melting away, most of it going to the Liberals as strategic votes against Tory aspirations. Remember, 'throw the corrupt Liberals out', is no longer in play. To the left, a 'scary' Conservative majority is.

Possible reasons for precipitous drop in Conservative public support: 1) Confirmation that taxpayers are bucking up for the PM's hair stylist. 2) Stephen Harper's attempt to out-liberal the Liberals is alienating his core support. 3) Afghanistan, particularly body bag count and govt's refusal to impose a time limit. 4) The realization that our PM's character gos beyond petulant, he's just plain mean. 5) all of the above.

Did that damn Ignatieff say "let them eat kake", again?

New Decima poll released today - Conservatives 30% and Liberals 29%, a statistical dead heat. The war in Afghanistan continues to drag down Harper's govt. There is no sense whining that the Liberals got us into this dust up, it is the public perception that Afghanistan is Stephen Harper's war. Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals. As I said when SES recently released their numbers, the Conservatives are in trouble.

He is perhaps the most loathed politician on the West Coast. From UBC to Surrey, there is not a single constituency where enough voters are willing to hold their noses to return this wretch to Ottawa. Short of his party performing another Stockwell Day and parachuting him into a bible-belt riding out in the valley, the stench of his softwood lumber/floor crossing machinations end with the current regime. Public life will be fresher for it.

Ummm the NDP got 16% of the vote, not 6%. Does your 267% mistake change your views? I thought not.

Among the dippers, almost 20% think Harper will make the best PM..... http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S07-T230.pdf ...which also means 80% don't.

http://www.albertapundit.com/?p=1336 The lack of upward poll movement by Layton's party, particularly given a raw, unproven Liberal leader, can be traced to his unfathomable decision to play footsie with the Tories on the environment file. Forget the notion of NDP gains attributable to Dion's inexperience or disillusionment with the two old line parties; on the contrary expect hundreds of thousands of leftists, in the eleventh hour, to bleed strategically from their socialist home into the Liberal column. Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

She will soon be chairman of Chrysler Corp.

To those wondering why the Maritimes, with less than 10% of Canada's population, suffers 400% more fatalities in Afghanistan than would be expected based on population, the answer lies above. Incredibly, Harper's govt has held back deployment of Quebec's fabled Van Doos as a nod to Quebec's anti-war sensibilities. Does there remain a shred of doubt this govt will do anything to get reelected?

Don't treat poll results as firm numbers. Do an average over the last few polls. If a poll comes out and says 50% than the next day another one says 60%. It doesn't mean opinion has changed by the whole 10% in a day. It just means both (or just one) poll is on the opposites site of the error margin. We'll need to see the next few polls before we can make *anything* of these results. There are pollsters and there are hacks. In a remarkable display of bandwagon polling, Allan Gregg - with a straight face - announced that Harper's Tories held an 18% lead over Martin's Liberals with only 10 days left before the Jan. 23rd vote. Met with derision by all quarters save Conservatives and CTV's News Dept., his Strategic Counsel team whittled that ridiculous spread to 10% the night before the election. Their final numbers still missed 1 in every 5 Liberal voters. Would you seriously want that type of performance averaged with SES's results?

If the electorate perceives that Harper has orchestrated an unnecessary election in a roll of the dice for a majority, voters might register their disapproval on election day. It wouldn't be the first time. SES's Quebec numbers are good news for Tories. Interesting that their gains there came at the expense of the Liberals and not, as per conventional wisdom, at the expense of a disintegrating Bloc.

The SES numbers put the Conservatives squarely in minority territory. Without regional breakdowns we can only guess where "stubborn" Liberal support is concentrated. Ontario surely remains largely Grit, but the Tories might want to offer up a prayer to the political gods that Dion's strength is not now also focused in Quebec. Without La Belle province on side there is no majority breakthrough only possible unity nightmares on the horizon as the province again makes the difficult adjustment of being isolated from national leadership.

Not sure they are in trouble. It just means the Tories have not had consistent numbers for a majority win. It keeps slipping back from the crucial 40% numbers. More importantly, Ontario keeps going back and forth between Liberals and Tories in various polls from different firms. You're right about Afghanistan though. It would be tough for any government Liberal or Tory to command high numbers in government with Afghanistan overshadowing good news announcements. There is deep skepticism in all parts of the country over the mission's ultimate success. Such meagre returns for over a year of pull-no-punches Tory political efforts. Their troubles are confirmed by the only pollster who's accuracy in the last election was nothing short of spine tingling. Posters here could be right that Harper's greatest asset is Dion as Liberal leader. I subscribe to the scenario that Dion's efforts at apprenticing in opposition will eventually pay dividends in additional competence and increasingly, in popularity. That, along with Afghanistan and the environment, does not bode well for future Conservative fortunes.

As a positive the Conservatives are the only party to be growing their support. So the trend line is in the right direction. For whatever reason the SES polls are continually showing the Conservatives with the lowest support of all the major polling companies. That being said they were the most accurate pollster in the last two elections. Good news for the Conservatives. It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground. Who would have predicted it after billions in budget promises, millions spent on attack ads and now Canada's worst day ever in Afghanistan to blunt whatever momentum this new govt had going for it. Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.