paxamericana

Well if defense of the artic ever became an issue, I'm sure Canada could wring out some concession from the American. Probably less tarrif on your milk in exchange of US millitary access to some of your northern ports.

Well ever since Uncle sam defeated the soviet Canada became irrelevant. There's a potential for round two. I'll post about it in another post. Long story short it has to do with the chinese ambition in the artic.

I don't disagree with the premise of your statements. HOWEVER, be that as it may, Americans again aren't willing to shall we say shoulder the burden of maintaining the alliance to the degree that it has since the cold war. Especially now that nato members are wealthy themselves. And that a major security threat significant in magnitude to the soviets is absent. The long term isolationist consequence will be America getting drag into another world war with the potential esscalation to nukes. (Or nuclear proliferation and one or a few going off more likely) Now there has been a push by the Globalist wing of the pentagon to point that attention to starting with Obama and his piviot to asia. Specifically China, and establish a pseudo Asiatic version of nato in ASEAN countries like Japan taiwan south korea phillipines and vietnam. I think this in the long term is unfounded due to China's collasping demographic and terrible geography. China can de-industrialize in a matter of months wiping out half of the population. They can't even produce enough food to maintain their population wihtout fertilizer input from abroad. India also suffer from terrible geogrpahy, lacking navigable rivers and is mountanous making it difficult for infrastucture development. Populous but always poor. Yes churchill put bluntly "There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them"

Mmmhmmm Russia cares about the nutritious well being of subsaharan africa that much huh? And they decided to stop threatening the west with nukes out of the kindness of their hearts or because they're scared of the big bad europeans and canadian millitary? I guess the decreased in population from most of the modern world doesn't count or something. The universial trend is once you industrialized adults have less kids. Meaning if you moved from the farm where children was free labor to the cities, they become expensive habits and adults aren't stupid. So we have less of them. This is a universial trend with only one Exception and that's Israel. They see population growth as a religious duty coming out of world war 2. America and by exstension, Americans, are not putting up with the free loaders anymore. Its become a political force on its own with both parties. The international community should wake up and realize that America doesn't need them and is already repositioning their trade/industrial policies to reflect that. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics/europe-us-relationship-china-intl/index.html

I'll simply say this, the population demographics of the world (with a few notable exception, America being one) does not support a growth base economic model simply because the population is shrinking. There is no economic incentive to protect the "trade" route shall we say. The US isn't stupid, they know this will lead to major instability and possibly a war. That is why they aren't stopping investment into their millitary. They're preparing for a world that's going to break down interms of trade as well as physical security I would say. Geographically, America is a continental sized island and well insulated from the coming break down of world order. We can source most and with in easy reach all of what we need to produce goods for ourselves. While still boasting a young enough population to support it in the first place.

So I believe you're taking into account export which is incorrect. The goods that america NEED shall we say, is import. Export are of either finished industrial product/machinery or raw material the offshore manufacturer need to sell back to the US. In a isolationist america this is unnecesarry as supply chain can aquire the basic material locally and manufacture locally. So there is a big push by both the Trump and Biden administration to build out America's energy sector both oil and green tech. This makes america the cheapest in term of unsubsidized electricity. This inturn will produce cheap input cost for manufacturing. As manufacturer are moving assembly plants closer to the US. While you could argue that mexico can't replace china completely, there is also a southeast asia divestment out of china and into ASEAN countries. Mexico is dependent upon us trade and so is canada FYI as a percentage of their GDP. Again you should look at import specifically. This point is moot however as the market is wholeheartedly in US. I will say that you could view mexico and canada and all of south america as an extension of the United state visa vi the monroe donctrine. Again courtesy of the United States Navy.

But represent them he did. Trump is a manifestation of this post cold war era America. We're tired of holding up the roof while no longer recieving any security benefits. At the expense of American labor I might add. The liberal view of Trump is superfical in my observation. They sort of missed the tree for the forest. And if you think this is a unique problem for half of america you've no idea what Clinton,Bush,Obama did. They all in their own way disengaged from the rest of the world. For the above stated reason ofcourse.

We don't trade with much of the world actually. And most of that internaitonal trade is done locally with Mexico and Canada accounting for a mere maybe 8% GDP? Out of that 8, 2-3% is with China. https://www.nber.org/digest/apr18/how-large-are-us-economys-gains-trade Take a deep dive into the type of infrastructure America is building. See if any of that still requires china. I'll give you the short version nope. Its not out of national security standpoint either, its simply economics, due to china againg population their labor cost has risen greatly since the early 2000s. While quality of labor still remains poor. It makes more sense to invest into supply chain that are closer to home. Mexican labor is now cheaper than china and higher skilled FYI.

I think a missing component in this discussion is geography. American security gaurantee is what allowed for countries to circumvent their basic geographical limitation, countries that lacked raw resources to grow and sell product had unhindered access guaranteed by the American. Without the guarantor, basic geographical limit will force countries to secure their own trade route and compete over natural resources as was the reason for both world war.

Iran seizing the oil tanker is one of the many symptom of a disinterested american power vacuum. Who rely on those transshipment of goods and material. Everyone but the american. You all should be greatful you got to grow up in a world ran by the best world police force actually. That period of hyper growth is coming to an end. Good luck securing market access and not to mention needed raw material to sustain modern life let alone growth. That's how geopolitic work. There is no rainbow and sunshine. Its about leverage and chest thumping. The 20th century economic model was based on population growth aka demographic dividend. That is no longer supported by modern trends.

For the above stated reason America can and already has started on that path of isolating from the world. America is reindustrilizing, why? Simply because there isn't enough young and cheap labor to tap into or are there a demand overseas to support it in the first place. Nor does the rest of the world have enough free capital from their retiring baby boomer to support further growth and developement because they didn't have enough babies. America doesn't have this problem because of the Millineal generation and that's what the Boomers did right, have enough babies. America will be the only place that can even support economic growth. We can and do choose to import young labor and talent from outside the country legal or otherwise. Brain drain as you call it. Expect more immgrant flight to the US. Expect a return to normal, what you've seen in the last 75 year of American security subsidized globalism hypergrowth was ABNORMAL. The people that says China will be the next super power simply doesn't understand demographics, geography or frankly history. America will remain the preimnent global power from now into the forseeable future. The 20th century wasn't just the American century but so will be the 21st and maybe forever.

Its a declaration that America doesn't have any vested interest around the world. We make our own oil, can secure our own trade route to raw material being mostly in north and south america. FYI Monroe doctrine is very much still in play. Think of America as a continental size island. We are a naval power fashioned similar to the Brits, just 10x bigger and better. Meaning one of our Naval battle group can smash the entire world navy combined. We have 12. There is no replacement for America, simply because the demographics and geography doesn't support it. China will wither away in 20 years. Their population demographic is way past the point of no return. So will Russia, europe and most of the developed countries. So for the next 20 years America should isolate. There is no need to engage with the international communities. The problem however as you will see, there will be a mad dash for the scraps that's leftover while America will be the shining hill over the horizon. Countries will now have to pay for the cost of floating their own navies and millitary, else be subject to intimidation and sway by their rival neighbors. This social democrat free health care system that you all enjoy? Yeah that was only possible with a world subsidzed by American taxpayer's security umbrella and free access to our markets. Good luck world. I really mean that.

See my short essay on why You need us.

From the post world war 2 order created by American Hegemeny, the world greatly benefitted. Speficially from american security umbrella visa vi american taxpayer subsidies. It allowed for international trade through american gaurded sea lane and an open market to american consumer. In summary this was a bribe for being cannon fodder incase the soviets decided to invade. Fast forward to present day and the dissolution of the soviet union , there is no longer an impetus to maintain such imbalanced relationship with Canada and the rest of Nato. President Trump was a manifestation of this feeling amongst American. He lead the great twitter crusade against the usual Nato deadbeat and humiliated Canada in the USMC trade deal. What the wider audience should take away however is that America doesn't need the rest of the world. Its quite the opposite. You see, without american hegemony, the old school mercantilist/imperialist/colonial competition amongst european power that dominated the pre world war 2 era would arise. There is two key factor the now enraged canucks should consider, geography and demographics. Without good access to vital sea lane for trade and raw material access, modern civilization would not be possible. Second without an over arching hegemony courtesy of the American, there is no such thing as fair competition. The natural competition that exist amongst countries would dominate and if history is to be repeated, privateers arg... Third, the typical demographic that support trade typically aged 15-45 no longer exist in canada or europe. These modern economy are aging rapidly similar to East asia. Canada and by extension these countries that suffer from this demographic collapse, now needs American involvement more than ever. America is the only major mordern economy that does not suffer from the population collaspe, hence still maintain a relatively large cohorts of millineal consumer to support a free market. MAGA

Canada lack the legitimate right to exist as a sovereign nation. It relies heavily on America for national defense and lack any credible military industrial complex to sustain a war. America should realize it's manifest destiny and aquire the necessary sudetenland as the artic thaw. There are a number fascist anti-american canadian who wage daily war in cyber space against innocent American conservatives. Strategically, we need to stop the proliferation of NATO deadbeats by setting an example. Economically, Canada has been ripping off Americans with subsidies and tarrif for its cartel ran agriculture products from maple syrup to milk.