Harry
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Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions
Harry replied to August1991's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
The thing is the NDP are still surging, and we still have 5 days left NDP hits new heights, rocks election race The upstart left-leaning New Democrats hit new heights in opinion polls Wednesday, further shaking up Canada's election race and making the outcome almost impossible to predict. http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73Q44720110427 -
All I can say is thank goodness for Layton.
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Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8% Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24% / 6% Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2% Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% / Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /
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I know it's quite discouraging thinking you were going to get a majority and now you don't even know if you will get a minority any more, but to try and twist things around like you are doing is quite pathetic. At some point these polls had to converge and now we see Nanos Research moving in the direction of the EKOS and Angus Reid polls. Here is what Nanos actually showed, and what Bryan purposely left out with their polling today. Tories lead by 10, NDP second and trending up Cons - 37.8%, Down 1.4% NDP - 27.8%, Up 4.2% (NDP gains 5.6% on Cons) Libs - 22.9%, down 2.7% Bloc - 5.8%, Down 0.7% http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110426-BallotE.pdf
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Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?
Harry replied to Harry's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Jason Kenny, Jim Prentice, Stockwell Day and Peter MacKay are 4 possible contenders for the Tory throne, once Conservatives clue in to the fact that they are never going to get a majority with Harper. I wonder who will be the first one to stick the knife in. It appears that Harper, Ignatieff, and Duceppe will all be looking for other work quite soon. -
Still behind the times a bit but nevertheless killing the Harper majority.......
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Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?
Harry replied to Harry's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
You're kidding yourself if you think Harper is well liked outside of Conservative quarters, and it is his inability to work with others is why we are having this election. He's toast. -
NDP: Official Opposition or Jack Layton as PM?
Harry replied to August1991's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Go Habs Go! -
More good news coming from Quebec for the NPD with another Leger poll out later on this week. Harper's losing it - he's running attack ads against the NDP which are basically just noise now, and pretty soon the Royal Wedding will take over. God save the Queen!
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The Liberals are really collapsing. 5 days left and the NDP are the ones with the momentum. The NDP polling at 27% in Ontario is awesome!
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Jack Layton will be sleeping well tonite. Angus Reid Regionals BC Cons 44% NDP 30% Libs 16% Grn 10% AB Cons 60% NDP 21% Libs 12% Grn 6% MB SK Cons 50% NDP 33% Libs 16% Grn 1% ON Cons 37% Libs 30% NDP 27% Grn 6% QC NDP 38% Bloc 29% Libs 16% Cons 14% Gr 2% Atl Cons 35% NDP 32% Libs 29% Grn 4%
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Not too shaby! Should all the political pundits in Canada quit due to their incompetence?
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Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?
Harry replied to Harry's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Bingo! -
Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?
Harry replied to Harry's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Go ahead, bury your head in the sand. The NDP tsunami hasn't happened - it's all a mirage. Angus Reid the most accurate pollster last election didn't come out with a poll today showing the NDP at 30% and up 12% from their 2008 election results, and didn't show the Cons down 3% from their 2008 election results. -
With the NDP at 30% tonite, within 5% of first place, the continuing NDP momentum which has turned into a Canadian political tsunami, and with only 5 days left to campaign, it is obvious that 'Loser' Harper has failed in his bid to win a majority governemnt, and even winning a conservative minority government is no longer assured. As a result the knives will be out for Harper's failed Leadership. Who are the most likely candidates to succeed Harper?
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Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions
Harry replied to August1991's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Election Almanac before the Angus Reid poll that came out today showing the NDP at 30% Cons - 128 seats NDP - 103 seats Libs - 65 seats Bloc - 12 seats http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/ -
It's absolutely incredible to see the NDP at 30% - this really is a Canadian political tsunami How many seats will Jack Layton get with 30% support? Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27/9% / 24% / 6% Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2% Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% / Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /
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When voters have had enough and want to throw the bums out they go to the polls. I think a lot of Canadians are getting really tired of 'loser' Harper.
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Yesterday it was a 6% lead with EKOS. Today it's only a 5% lead with Angus Reid the most accurate pollster There are 5 days left - could the NDP chip away 1% per day for the next 5 days and win the election? Whose vote is more efficient?
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This Malik is quite the boy.
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There will be more polls out soon and we shall see where this is all going. But in the meantime as I have said, you just lose credibility when you decide to omit polls that you don't like.
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Party supporters often want to shoot the messenger. Cherry pick the polls all you want - it just weakens your case.
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There definitely will not be any Harper majority, and it is now questionable whether or not Harper will even get a minority. In case you haven't noticed the NDP surge is turning into a tsunami. And omitting polls because you don't like the results is quite pathetic. EKOS is forcasting today 100 seasts for the surging NDP and there is still 6 days left before the vote. Hang onto to your hat, as this race is far from over. Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2% Less than 6% gap with a surging NDP Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% / Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /
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Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions
Harry replied to August1991's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Finally the seat projectors are stating to move - they are a bit behind the times but better late than never I suppose. Election Almanac just made a change based on today's polls - we're getting there slowly but surely: Party / 08 GE / Apr 20 / Apr 21 Apr 23 / Apr 24 / Change Cons / 143 / 181 / 141 / 143 / 130 / Down 13 seats NDP / 37 / 49/ 50 / 48 / 64 / Up 27 seats Libs / 77 / 47 / 77 / 78 / 76 / Down 1 seat Bloc / 49 / 31/ 40 / 39 / 38 / Down 11 seats -
This poll is sure reverberating across the land tonite.
