Harry

The NPD surge continues. Brome-Missisquoi : la vague NPD s'étend (Cowansville) «La surprenante vague du NPD qui a déferlé sur le Québec cette semaine se manifeste également dans Brome-Missisquoi, au point de rendre l'issue du vote dans cette circonscription totalement imprévisible», soutient le président de la firme Segma, Raynald Harvey, à la suite d'un sondage réalisé cette semaine dans ce comté. Avec 32% des intentions de vote exprimées dans le sondage réalisé pour le compte de La Voix de l'Est, le Bloc a 6 points d'avance sur le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) et le Parti libéral, qui figurent ex aequo en deuxième place avec 26% des intentions de vote (résultats après répartition des 18% d'indécis). Mais le NPD, dont les appuis augmentaient de jour en jour au cours du sondage, pourrait bien avoir pris les devants aujourd'hui, selon le sondeur. «Le fait saillant de ce sondage est que le candidat NPD (Pierre Jacob) a vu ses appuis passer de 19% la première journée (le lundi 18 avril) à 33% lors de la quatrième journée du sondage (le jeudi 21 avril), ce qui le plaçait tout juste devant la bloquiste Christelle Bogosta pour cette seule journée. Pendant la même période, la bloquiste a vu ses appuis fondre de 19%!», souligne le sondeur Raynald Harvey dans son rapport. «C'est presque incroyable, ajoute ce dernier en entrevue téléphonique. Ça peut jouer de jour en jour, mais comme ça, c'est exceptionnel!» http://www.cyberpresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201104/22/01-4392760-brome-missisquoi-la-vague-npd-setend.php

A Conservative ad that is factual - that's the best one I've heard today!

Only the shadow knows. What the NDP surge means In Ontario, for example, many non-Conservatives vote Liberal only because they believe the NDP can’t win government. When Layton says, as he did Thursday, that the NDP’s increased popularity in Quebec could affect its standing in Ontario, he is right. The pollster Ekos calculates that the NDP is the second choice of most Liberal voters across the country. It also says that when first- and second-place preferences are combined, the New Democrats outscore all other parties. In simple terms, this means that if the Liberals totally collapse, Layton — like then New Democrat Bob Rae in Ontario 21 years ago — could theoretically win government. -------------- Still, there’s something going on here. Ekos calculates that if an election were held now, the Liberals and New Democrats combined — even without Bloc support — would have more seats than first-place finisher Harper. That would dramatically change the political calculations around any possible, post-election, anti-Conservative coalition. It would also raise the possibility — still slim — that in such a coalition, Layton might not be the junior partner. http://www.thestar.com/article/979097--walkom-what-the-ndp-surge-means

Precisely - it's a brand new ball game. Let's see what happens Saturday as Layton is in Montreal for a rally.

CROP Regionals (sample size= 867) Montreal (437) NDP 40 BQ 28 PLC 17 CPC 12 Quebec (166) BQ 31 CPC 31 NDP 28 PLC 11 ROQ (264) BQ 35 NDP 34 CPC 19 PLC 10 Francophone (754) BQ 38 NDP 34 CPC 15 LPC 11 Non-Francophone (113) NDP 45 CPC 26 PLC 20 BQ 4

This abortion issue combined with the NDP surge has certainly thrown a kink into the plans for a majority. Does Harper hear echoes of '04 in backbench MP's remarks? Trost said in a speech to the Saskatchewan Pro-Life Association this month that petitions by anti-abortion advocates have been "very, very useful and they were part of what we used to defund Planned Parenthood." "Now, you should know, they're still trying to get their snout back in the public trough," added Trost, who is running for re-election in the riding of Saskatoon-Humboldt. Harper was quick on Thursday to downplay Trost's comments about Planned Parenthood and to reiterate his party's view that revisiting the abortion issue is "not the priority of the Canadian people, or of this government." But the organization's multimillion-dollar funding application remains in limbo, and — just as in 2004 — opposition parties were pointing Thursday to an outlier MP's unexpected remarks to revive the "hidden agenda" charge against the Conservatives, and to try to halt Harper's momentum ahead of election day. While the impact of Trost's comments on the current campaign remains unclear, the effect of White's out-of-right-field remarks on the 2004 election have been well documented. In Harper's Team, a 2007 chronicle of the Conservative rise to power by the party's 2004 campaign manager, Tom Flanagan, White's "notwithstanding" outburst was described as an "enormously damaging" factor in Harper's attempt to topple Martin and become prime minister. The Liberals were re-elected with a minority government. "The interview was perfect for the Liberals because it seemed to show that Harper really did have a hidden agenda; his carefully crafted positions on abortion, gay marriage, and perhaps other issues, were just for show, and the real Harper would come out of the box if he won the election," Flanagan, a University of Calgary political scientist, wrote. "It was a powerful message to take into the final weekend when, traditionally, about 25 per cent of voters make up their minds." Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Does+Harper+hear+echoes+backbench+remarks/4656444/story.html#ixzz1KJvjzaTh http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Does+Harper+hear+echoes+backbench+remarks/4656444/story.html

Fascinating. Jack owes a big thank you to Bob Rae. Hébert: Why Quebec is loving Jack, leaving Gilles http://www.thestar.com/article/979022--hebert-why-quebec-is-loving-jack-leaving-gilles

The CROP regionals are out - some very interesting polling results for Quebec City & Montreal areas - page 26 http://www.crop.ca/sondages/pdf/2011/117250evolutionpolitiquecropavril2011.pdf

In lieu of the NDP surge all seat projections are basically out the window now.

NDP surge continues. Layton is almost equal with Harper now. Nanos Leadership Index Harper ahead, Layton closes gap, Ignatieff a distant third Harper 88.1, Down 1.9 Layton - 72.9, Up 6.3 Ignatieff - 44.4, Up 7.7 Duceppe - 11.2, Down 4.1 May - 7.8, Down 1.3 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-LeadershipE.pdf

Well said.

Putting things into perspective The NDP numbers: some random thoughts http://www.cusjc.ca/?p=1582

Nanos Research - 3 days ending April 21 Tories lead by 12, Grits and NDP statistically tied C - 37.8%, Down 1,2% L - 26.1%, Down 0.6% N - 23.7%, Up 1.6% B - 7.4%, Down 0.1% G - 3.5%, Up 0.1% U - 17%, Up 1.6% http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-BallotE.pdf

Nice choice of language Globe and Mail - jerks Let's see if the same folks here can be just as outraged over this.

When I am competing I just love people who count their chickens before they are hatched.

That's kinda my take on what is coming down and not only in Quebec. Nothing succeeds liks success. Voters want to jump on the bandwaygon now to be part of this Canadian election happenin' event.

That's what you said about the NPD winning any seats in Quebec was it 2 days ago?

I like Olivia a lot. She's a class act.

This can of worms is now open at the worst possible time for Harper. Women run for your lives away from these dinosaurs. Tories scramble after MP brags of denying funding to family-planning group http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-scramble-after-mp-brags-of-denying-funding-to-family-planning-group/article1995334/

It's not just here it's everywhere. People don't realize this NDP surge is not at all restricted to Quebec. It's catching on all over the country. The amazing thing is CPAC has these phone-in shows which usually has a bunch of disgruntled people who phone in, quite often CPC supporters, but now the calls are coming in from all over Canada, and the callers are all excited about one thing now - the rising NDP tide across the land and most of the callers are saying they are switching to the NDP this election. Never ever seen anything like this kind of support for the NDP. How many different polls came out today alone showing the NDP in 2nd place?

This abortion issue story has spread like wildfire across the country. By the end of this weekend there will be very few women left in Canada that have not heard about the issue, and the threat to their reproductive freedom with the Cons. This will be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back, and will drive I don't know how many thousand female voters away from the Cons to other parties. As if anyone is going to believe Harper on this abortion issue with people like Con MP Brad Trost in his Caucus.

So we'll put you down as totally biased and unreliable, given to making false statements - ok?

NDP on track to win 60 seats, poll projects http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

Seat Projection NDP - 60 seats They had elected 37 MPs in 2008, so that's an increase of 23 MPs or a 62% increase in the number of MPs for the NDP.

Did anyone watch power play today nobody was talking majority any more