Harry

Why is everybody so surprised? Jack Layton’s amazing race How Layton turned an also-ran NDP party into an organized and aggressive operation http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/29/jacks-amazing-race/

I love Cons who bury their heads in the sand. It makes the job of defeating them that much easier.

Looks like the NDP will be picking up several seats in BC from both the Cons and the Libs. YAFFE: B.C. is fertile ground for surging NDP A redrawing of the province’s electoral map is entirely possible on election night, with about a dozen seats up for grabs British Columbia is demonstrating just how much things can shift in the five weeks of an election campaign. With voters set to cast ballots Monday, a redrawing of the province’s political map is entirely possible. Since the start of the electoral contest in late March, both Liberals and Greens have lost support in B.C. Support for the New Democrats, meanwhile, has grown like Topsy — as it has elsewhere in Canada. And, most important, the party is peaking at exactly the right time. Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html#ixzz1Kz626B98'>http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html#ixzz1Kz626B98 http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html

Here's the English version NDP support continues to climb, poll shows Jack Layton continues to surge in popularity among voters, giving his New Democrats vital momentum going into Monday’s election, largely at the expense of the Liberals, a new poll reveals. The NDP are at 33 per cent support nationwide, up three percentage points in recent days and just four points back from the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent, up two, according to the latest Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse. The Liberals have dropped by three percentage points this week to 19 per cent. That’s where the NDP stood at the start of the campaign, illustrating the stunning turn in fortunes for both parties. The Green Party is up one percentage point to 4 per cent. The growth of the NDP’s popularity has shown little signs of ebbing, Mukerji said. “There was a lot of discussion that it might be peak, it might crest. It seems like it’s gaining some momentum,” he said. While surprising now, the roots of the NDP surge were evident before the election in polls that showed Layton was popular with voters. “There was a large number of Canadians who were not enthralled with the prospect of a Tory majority. And you had a Liberal leader who was deeply unpopular, who hadn’t even really assured his own base, and you had an NDP leader who was very popular,” Mukerji said in an interview Friday. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983246--ndp-support-continues-to-climb-poll-shows

An Amway meeting. Quite pathetic really. Ballroom dancing on Harper's Economic Scare Tactics Express Things are going well thanks to his own vigilance, Mr. Harper assured the gathering (no nod was given to our good position going into the recession, nor to our resource-based economy). But the economy is on a hair trigger. It could blow at any moment. The guy's nothing if not on-message. But as Jack Layton's cheery, concerned NDP climbed in the polls, it struck me that the Tory scaremongering of this campaign might backfire: Sometimes, when faced with dismal economic times, people turn to a party that promises security. For a party that hopes to govern on one issue, the economy, the Conservatives have been as sketchy on details as the other parties. When questioned by Paul Wells of Maclean's about billions of dollars in budget cuts that were announced in the Conservatives' ill-fated 2011 budget but never explained (still more money magically appeared in their election platform), Finance Minster Jim Flaherty tried to sound excited about the savings to be had were the government to start using direct deposit for employment-insurance cheques. Really, that's Canada's great untapped resource? Direct deposit? That better not be Stage 3. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/tabatha-southey/ballroom-dancing-on-the-economic-scare-tactics-express/article2004406/

Ontario and BC, eh! Amazin' surge by the orange team. Layton’s gains in Ontario and B.C. narrow Harper’s lead to five points With only three crucial campaigning days left, Jack Layton and the NDP continue to close the gap on the Conservatives, narrowing Stephen Harper’s advantage now in key battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia, according to the latest Nanos Research survey. Given the slim five-point lead for the Conservatives nationally, the NDP and Liberals could win more seats combined than the Tories on May 2 with a “rump” separatist party holding the balance of power, pollster Nik Nanos says. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/laytons-gains-in-ontario-and-bc-narrow-harpers-lead-to-five-points/article2003488/

Angus Reid (Most accurate pollster in 2008 GE) Poll - Saturday, April 30, 2011 now showing the NDP within 4% of first place Canada Cons - 35% / 37% / Up 2% NDP - 30% / 33% / Up 3% NDP now only 4% out of first place Libs - 22% / 19% / Down 3% Quebec NPD - 45% Bloc - 26% Libs - 16% Cons - 13% http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/29/01-4394847-le-npd-gonfle-a-bloc.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

Sweet! Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 30 / Angus R / 37.0% / 33.0% / 19.0% / NDP now only 4% out of first place Apr 29 / Ipsos R / 38.0% / 33.0% / 18.0% / 7% / NDP within 5% of first place Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1% Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 3% of first place Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8% Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0% Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2% Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% / Apr 20 / Ipsos R / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

Things are just getting better and better for the NDP, now only 4% out of first place. Le NPD gonflé à bloc Le Québec voit orange. À quelques heures d'un scrutin qui s'annonce historique, le NDP récolte l'appui de presque un électeur québécois sur deux, loin devant le Bloc québécois qui régnait pourtant en maître dans la province depuis 1993. Les Québécois s'apprêtent donc à prendre un virage important aux élections fédérales de lundi, lesquelles modifieront considérablement la donne politique non seulement au Québec, mais dans l'ensemble du pays. Un dernier coup de sonde avant le jour du vote réalisé par la firme Angus Reid pour le compte de La Presse et du Toronto Star confirme donc que le NPD a le vent dans les voiles. Ce coup de sonde donne aux troupes néo-démocrates de Jack Layton 45% des appuis au Québec, contre 26 % au Bloc québécois, 16% au Parti libéral et 13% au Parti conservateur. Depuis le début de la campagne, les appuis au NPD ont donc plus que doublé. À l'échelle du pays, le Parti conservateur se maintient en tête avec 37% des intentions de vote, une hausse de deux points de pourcentage par rapport au dernier sondage mené il y a 10 jours. Le NPD voit ses appuis bondir de trois points pour se fixer à 33%. Le Parti libéral encaisse le coup. Ses appuis, qui étaient à 22%, tombent sous la barre des 20% pour la première fois de son histoire et sont maintenant à 19%. http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/29/01-4394847-le-npd-gonfle-a-bloc.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

Are you talking about another one of those right-wing drive-by smear tactics? I'm hearing there is such repulsion to this kind of politics, that it is going to give the NDP an additional 6 seats. This just confirms to voters what Layton has been saying all along, that Ottawa is broken, and the NDP is going to fix it, and clean up all the scandals at the same time. Goodness Harper sounds so desperate today. Kinda sad really. It seems that both the Con and the Lib campaigns are in crisis.

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Before the orange crush occured, I thought the NDP might have won 70 seats. But things are vastly different now. There isnt one seat projector that is up-to-date see http://www.punditsguide.com NDP 126 seats Cons 125 seats Libs 39 seats Bloc 17 seats Ind 1 seat

More great news for Jack Layton and his enegetic and focused NDP Team. Only 2 days left now before we go to the polls, and the orange wave is still surging as we saw in the Ipsos Reid poll released today showing that the NDP has gained 14% on the Cons in the past nine days, and the NDP is now only 5% out of first place with a couple of days left. All the stars seem to aligning left for the NDP's historic Monday nite. Toronto Star endorses the NDP Monday’s federal election may well turn out to be historic for all kinds of reasons that were not obvious when it was called five weeks ago today. Unless the pollsters have totally misread the mood of the voters, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives look to be heading for another victory. As we said on Friday, that would be bad for the country. The last thing Canada needs is an affirmation of a government obsessed with control, dismissive of critics, and determined to further diminish the role of the state in charting a better future for the country. Voters who believe that Canada can — and should — aim higher have an important decision. Until 10 days ago, they had only one realistic alternative to the Conservatives — the Liberal party under Michael Ignatieff. Today, that is no longer the case. The New Democrats have been reinvigorated under the leadership of Jack Layton. After Monday, they may well challenge the Liberals as the principal national standard-bearer for the roughly two voters in three who disagree fundamentally with the course charted by the Harper Conservatives. Progressive voters should give them their support on Monday. http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/983376--toronto-star-endorses-the-ndp

We sure could do a lot more constructive things with that kind of major coin.

A simple question: How much money would be saved if we abolished the Senate?

Sweeter! Ipsos Reid poll Party / Apr 20 / Apr 29 / Change Cons / 43% / 38% / Down 5% NDP / 24% / 33% / Up 9% NDP has gained 14% on the Cons in 9 days Libs / 21% / 18% / Down 3% Bloc / 6% / 7% / Up 1%

Sweet! Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 29 / Ipsos R / 38.0% / 33.0% / 18.0% / 7% / NDP within 5% of first place Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1% Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 3% of first place Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8% Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0% Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2% Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% / Apr 20 / Ipsos R / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

Looking mighty fine in BC for Mr Jack Layton Roadmap to May 2: British Columbia Things have moved so fast during this election, that I've started and tossed more blogposts than usual. But time to put my own list of ridings in play to paper before it's too late. In doing so, I have tried my best to avoid looking at the many other lists out there, for fear of contaminating my own perceptions. I did answer Calgary Grit's questionnaire in a timestamped textfile that's been sitting on my hard-drive for a few weeks. At the time I had a higher NDP seat count than any of the other contestants, but one that now seems low by many standards. Still, as any regular reader would know by now, I favour the qualitative approach to calling individual seats when the numbers alone won"t do the job, and in this election they clearly won't. That does leave things open to greater influence of the heart than head, but that's the risk we all take on E-minus-4, isn't it. Anyway, that being said, I'll forge ahead with my look at the races to watch, starting out west. Strong contested races: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/roadmap-to-may-2-british-columbia/

Obviously this is a "what if" situation but I have been correct all along so far.

You are incorrect about the NDP, and about the GG's role initially. It's the Harper's word thing that concerns me the most.

Several times during the election campaign Harper said that the party that wins the most number of seats gets to form the government. As it now appears that the NDP will end up winning the most number of seats on Monday, will Harper be true to his word, resign as as Prime Minister, join the coalition of losers, and allow Jack Layton to become Prime Minister?

According to EKOS, NDP just jumped 2.5% on the Cons overnite. It looks like we are heading for an NDP government. What do you mean by reconsidering, reconsidering what?

Most Recent polling: Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1% Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8% Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0% Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2% Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% / Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% / Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0% Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

EKOS NDP just jumped 2.5% on the Cons overnite Cons - 34.5%, Down 0.3% NDP - 29.7%, up 2.2% Libs - 20%, Down 2.3% Bloc - 6.3% NDP still closing on Conservatives; Liberal declines continue: http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/29/ndp-still-closing-on-conservatives-liberal-declines-continue/

Here's some absolutely fantastic news for Layton's NDP. Orange wave hits Quebec City - no Tory MP, Minister safe: Crop NPD - 34% Bloc - 27% Cons - 27% Libs - 10% Quote Sondage Crop-Le Soleil: vague néodémocrate sur la capitale nationale La vague orange qui déferle sur le Québec est si forte qu'elle menace maintenant de balayer la capitale nationale, malgré sa réputation (plutôt méritée) de bastion de la droite. Aucun député conservateur, même ministre, n'y semble plus à l'abri, et pour tout dire, la victoire n'y est sûre pour absolument personne, d'après une série de sondages CROP-Le Soleil effectués dans les cinq circonscriptions de la ville et dans celle de Portneuf. La firme a sondé 400 personnes par circonscription dans Québec, Beauport-Limoilou, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent et Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier. Pour l'ensemble des 2401 répondants, le Nouveau Parti démocratique mène avec 34 % des intentions de vote (après répartition des indécis), tandis que le Bloc québécois et le Parti conservateur se disputent chaudement le second rang, à 27 % chacun. Si, par ailleurs, le Parti libéral pensait avoir atteint le fond du baril dans la région, ce coup de sonde viendra le détromper : les appuis des rouges, déjà maigres, ont trouvé le moyen de fondre encore pour passer sous les 10 %. Les verts ferment la marche à 3 %. http://www.cyberpres...e-nationale.php