Dion to re-Organize Office

[jdobbin]

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/262804

iberal Leader Stephane Dion is preparing to shake up his office, his shadow cabinet and top party brass in a bid to shore up his shaky leadership and put an end to internal party warfare.

The departure of Jamie Carroll as Dion's hand-picked national party director will be chief among the changes to be unveiled later this week. Carroll, who is also the Liberals' deputy campaign director, is expected to remain part of Dion's inner circle in some capacity.

Coming amid a furor over alleged controversial comments and questionable judgment, Carroll's move is being cast as a reassignment. Insiders close to Dion insist Carroll has not offered his resignation or been fired.

The careful wording reflects the delicate balancing act Dion is attempting to accomplish with the shakeup overall. Insiders say he wants to demonstrate that he's reaching out to Quebec in the wake of three byelections in the province last month in which the Liberals were trounced, including losing the long-time Grit bastion of Outremont.

To that end, Dion will announce tomorrow that he is bringing in Johanne Senecal as his new principal secretary. Senecal, a Quebecer who worked in Jean Chrétien's office and for Dion when he was Chrétien's unity minister, will fill the gap left by Marcel Masse, who left Dion's office for health reasons.

Senecal, who once advised former Quebec premier Robert Bourassa, will take charge of the Opposition leader's office and be Dion's top adviser, even though Andrew Bevan will remain Dion's chief of staff.

Dion is also expected to replace Carroll at party headquarters with a Quebecer. Marc Lavigne, who quit as Carroll's deputy last month, is widely thought to be the logical choice.

At the same time, however, Dion does not want to be seen as caving in to or rewarding Quebec Liberals who've been airing the party's dirty linen in public since the byelection losses.

Last week, anonymous Liberals leaked details of a closed-door meeting at which Carroll was purportedly dismissive of suggestions that Dion include more francophone Quebecers in his inner circle. Witnesses said Carroll remarked that if he hired more Quebecers, then he'd have to hire more Chinese.

It seems more in Quebec Liberal circles are supporting Ignatieff.

I don't know that he would do better in popular support that Dion but then again, I don't know if anyone has polled Quebecers on what they think on the subject.

[Shakeyhands]

Lord. Dion really needs to pull a Clark and call a Leadership review, its too bad the party can ill afford it right now. Whats that saying about pigs and lipstick?

[sharkman]

Nothing like switching the chairs around on the deck of the Titanic to delay the inevitable for a few more months.

Edited October 2, 2007 by sharkman

[jdobbin]

Nothing like switching the chairs around on the deck of the Titanic to delay the inevitable for a few more months.

That's what some people said when Harper was changing staff and his image back in 2005.

[sharkman]

Dobbin, the eternal optomist! Keep believing baby, Dion for prez!

[jdobbin]

Lord. Dion really needs to pull a Clark and call a Leadership review, its too bad the party can ill afford it right now. Whats that saying about pigs and lipstick?

We'll have to see if there is an election in the next weeks. Quebec is going to be an issue if there is one. The party might fare better in Ontario, especially if the provincial Liberals pour their support into the effort.

[sharkman]

We'll have to see if there is an election in the next weeks. Quebec is going to be an issue if there is one. The party might fare better in Ontario, especially if the provincial Liberals pour their support into the effort.

Quebec an issue, are you kidding me? The Liberals are going to get creamed in Quebec. Quebec in not an issue, it's a disaster, and may win the day for their arch enemies, the Tories.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, the eternal optomist! Keep believing baby, Dion for prez!

32% in the polls. Harper himself says it is more likely to be a minority in an election hold to those numbers.

Perhaps you should this article from last week by one of Harper's most trusted associates.

http://www.rbcinvest.theglobeandmail.com/s...xComment/1/1/7/

Of the 26 elections since 1921, 10 have resulted in minority governments, and 16 in majority governments. The normal path to a majority government, followed in 12 of these 16 cases, is for the winning party to open up a big lead over the second-place party. The magic number is 11.2% of the popular vote; a party with a lead that big or bigger has never failed to win a majority of seats.

The media have been saying that a party is in majority territory once it gets to 40% of the popular vote. They are on the right track, but the key is not the percentage of votes as such, but the leading party's plurality over the closest contender. Getting 40% of the vote wouldn't give you a majority of seats if another party got 39% of the popular vote.

There have also been four occasions when a party won a majority government with a margin less than 11.2% of the popular vote. In all these cases, the number of seats won by third parties was below the average of 15.7% for all elections since 1921. The most striking modern example was 1974, when Pierre Trudeau's Liberals won a majority even though they only beat Robert Stanfield's Tories by 7.8% of popular vote. The key to the Liberal victory was that the NDP and Social Credit won only about 10% of the seats in that year, leaving more room for the Liberals to build their majority.

Let's translate this into plain English. There are two ways to win a majority government: (1) bury your main opponent by opening up a big lead and taking away their seats; (2) bury the small parties, thus giving yourself a larger pool of seats to work with.

So far I haven't see 1 or 2 happening. Have you?

Edited October 3, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Quebec an issue, are you kidding me? The Liberals are going to get creamed in Quebec. Quebec in not an issue, it's a disaster, and may win the day for their arch enemies, the Tories.

The Liberals are certainly not going to win many ridings in Quebec but having said that, the BQ still are higher than both the Liberals and the Tories.

[Canuck E Stan]

Coming amid a furor over alleged controversial comments and questionable judgment, Carroll's move is being cast as a reassignment. Insiders close to Dion insist Carroll has not offered his resignation or been fired.

-Toronto Star

Liberals' national director alleges party defamed him

In a confidential letter addressed to senior party executives, Jamie Carroll says his name has been publicly and unjustifiably damaged by high-ranking Liberals.

Carroll says he's talked to lawyers who have told him he would be eligible for considerable damages should he pursue the matter in court. In the letter, he says he wants 12 to 18 months pay as compensation.

Members of the party's management committee are reported to be meeting Tuesday night to discuss the letter and decide Carroll's fate.

Oh,oh! more bitter battles to come between high ranking Liberals. This is not going to help the Liberal cause.

To that end, Dion will announce tomorrow that he is bringing in Johanne Senecal as his new principal secretary. Senecal, a Quebecer who worked in Jean Chrétien's office and for Dion when he was Chrétien's unity minister, will fill the gap left by Marcel Masse, who left Dion's office for health reasons

Hiring a Quebecer.....to represent Quebec,that might help.

But what about hiring people from the Chinese community to represent the Chinese community?

[sharkman]

It's looking more and more like a house of cards.

[Visionseeker]

That's what some people said when Harper was changing staff and his image back in 2005.

That's an excellent point.

[Michael Bluth]

That's an excellent point.

Excellent point for Liberals trying to delude themselves about how serious the issues facing Stephane Dion truly are.

[Visionseeker]

I really have to wonder about people's perceptual skills (particularly the media's). By reading any newspaper or watching any news on TV, you would think that Dion has been an unmitigated disaster while Harper valiantly grapples on, successfully gaining momentum with each policy statement.

Facts are neither the Liberals nor Conservatives have shown any appreciable movement from the support they registered on January 23, 2006. Polls consistently show both parties in the low 30’s. The main beneficiaries of this stagnation have been the Greens and, to a lesser degree, the NDP.

IMO, the Conservatives are crippled by a somewhat earned perception of being too right-wing. This leaves them with a need to widen their tent by either tempering the ideology or seeking some kind of coalition. I’ve seen little by way of overtures to accomplish the former and much in the way of the latter in their appealing to Quebec’s soft separatists.

Now this may seem like good politics, but it actually creates a potentially fatal paradox. With each confidence building measure the Conservatives offer Quebec nationalists, the greater the risk they incur of losing support elsewhere (particularly in Ontario, the Maritimes and potentially in BC). Further, the alliance the Conservatives are forming in Quebec is closely tied to the camp that inspires the “debate” surrounding “reasonable accommodation”; creating a considerable wedge on matters of racial equality that could very well weaken the Conservative brand in large swatches of urban and suburban ridings.

The Conservatives had every opportunity to choke the Liberals out of the middle but chose not to do so. Instead of ignoring the more reactionary segments of their base, they sufficiently pandered to it to give the non core Conservatives the heebie-jeebies. And that’s just dumb politics.

Edited October 3, 2007 by Visionseeker

[Michael Bluth]

The Conservatives had every opportunity to choke the Liberals out of the middle but chose not to do so. Instead of ignoring the more reactionary segments of their base, they sufficiently pandered to it to give the non core Conservatives the heebie-jeebies. And that’s just dumb politics.

Examples of this 'pandering' and the oppotunities the Conservative's passed up please?

[Michael Hardner]

Vision,

Now this may seem like good politics, but it actually creates a potentially fatal paradox. With each confidence building measure the Conservatives offer Quebec nationalists, the greater the risk they incur of losing support elsewhere (particularly in Ontario, the Maritimes and potentially in BC). Further, the alliance the Conservatives are forming in Quebec is closely tied to the camp that inspires the “debate” surrounding “reasonable accommodation”; creating a considerable wedge on matters of racial equality that could very well weaken the Conservative brand in large swatches of urban and suburban ridings.

There is, though, a large middle ground that the Conservatives can inhabit - by loosening central power, and allowing more provincial control for example. Or by making some soft steps on 'accommodation' that appeal to the middle, such as making statements about the law and certain religions' treatment of women for example.

Dion's big plus is the environment, and Harper needs to convince the middle that he's not a caveman in this respect. Once he's done that, he could be due for a breakthrough.

And I'm not planning to vote for the guy, either.

[M.Dancer]

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/262804

It seems more in Quebec Liberal circles are supporting Ignatieff.

I don't know that he would do better in popular support that Dion but then again, I don't know if anyone has polled Quebecers on what they think on the subject.

Yeah, that will win over Canadians, more Chretien insiders.

Sheesh.....are they really planning to take 4 years off?

[jdobbin]

Yeah, that will win over Canadians, more Chretien insiders.

Sheesh.....are they really planning to take 4 years off?

Aside from Quebec, I have every reason t believe the Liberals might be in the lead right now in the polls. They are going to have to find a way to connect there. They lead the Tories according to Decima in the three largest provinces but in rural Quebec they are suffering.

[sharkman]

Yeah, that will win over Canadians, more Chretien insiders.

Sheesh.....are they really planning to take 4 years off?

The infighting has begun, can a mutiny be far off? Aside from some who feel that the Liberals are in fine shape thank you very much, when Dion feels he must do a re-organization, you know things have to be in pretty bad shape.

But this is yet another bandaid approach to a foundational problem, and just like Dion's makeover a few months ago which obviously hasn't helped in the least, this latest bandaid will only prolong the pain.

[jdobbin]

The infighting has begun, can a mutiny be far off? Aside from some who feel that the Liberals are in fine shape thank you very much, when Dion feels he must do a re-organization, you know things have to be in pretty bad shape.

But this is yet another bandaid approach to a foundational problem, and just like Dion's makeover a few months ago which obviously hasn't helped in the least, this latest bandaid will only prolong the pain.

And yet today's poll shows the Tories are still not able to capitalize. They are behind the Liberals in the three largest problems and were it not for rural Quebec, would probably be ahead of the Tories.

[Michael Bluth]

The infighting has begun, can a mutiny be far off? Aside from some who feel that the Liberals are in fine shape thank you very much, when Dion feels he must do a re-organization, you know things have to be in pretty bad shape.

But this is yet another bandaid approach to a foundational problem, and just like Dion's makeover a few months ago which obviously hasn't helped in the least, this latest bandaid will only prolong the pain.

Yup, the Liberals are in serious trouble.

Does anybody expect Dion to out perform any of the other three national leaders on the campaign trail? If so they all wouldn't be chomping at the bit for an election.

Will it be enough for a Conservative majority? Only time will tell.

Edited October 4, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[M.Dancer]

Aside from Quebec, I have every reason t believe the Liberals might be in the lead right now in the polls. They are going to have to find a way to connect there. They lead the Tories according to Decima in the three largest provinces but in rural Quebec they are suffering.

Don't you mean, aside from Quebec, Alberta, BC, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the liberals are tied neck and neck>?

Dion is dead man running......

[Michael Bluth]

Don't you mean, aside from Quebec, Alberta, BC, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the liberals are tied neck and neck>?

M.D. you miss the point. It's not the Liberals fault they aren't leading the polls. It's the fault of those rural Quebeckers. Damn them

Who would have thought the Liberals would be blaming Quebeckers for a poor showing in the polls?

Jean Lapierre made an interesting point tonight. He suggested that the Liberals should right off Quebec save the Island of Montreal and the Outaouias.

Unconventional, but perhaps practical.

Would Dion have the fortitude to make such a strategic move?

[jennie]

And yet today's poll shows the Tories are still not able to capitalize. They are behind the Liberals in the three largest problems and were it not for rural Quebec, would probably be ahead of the Tories.

Is Harper really so anxious for an election, to end up in the same position?

Must he be entirely inflexible about his policies? I don't know. Perhaps we have yet to see.

[M.Dancer]

Jean Lapierre made an interesting point tonight. He suggested that the Liberals should right off Quebec save the Island of Montreal and the Outaouias.

Unconventional, but perhaps practical.

Hardly uncoventional. That has been the MO since Muldoon helped create the Bloc q.