A Fall 2007 Federal Election?

[maldon_road]

So Harper has presented Dion with two options.

1. Get along and work together on the Government's agenda.

OR

2. Call it a day and let the voters decide.

Harper doesn't want open warfare anymore and refuses to govern under those circumstances. It's his perogative. Power to him for making the choice clear for the Liberals.

The Libs have in Dion a nice, pleasant, intelligent fellow who is a disaster as a leader and, no matter how you slice it, that won't change. There is no way they will let the government fall; they need some breathing space to figure how to minimize the damage of having a non-leader. I expect they will adopt the "PQ maneuver" and not show up to vote as the PQ did during the vote on the Quebec budget.

This will translate into some very poisonous situations in Committees.

[Michael Bluth]

When the writ drops and the campaign starts, the cause of the election usually gets forgotten. But I think Harper will have the edge in saying that the Liberals were obstructionist and Harper was patient to deal with them as long as he did.

I agree with your first point. But I don't really think anyone will have an edge over the issue.

This has been a pretty long minority government by historical standards. For that reason the MSM won't push the issue and it will be out of mind of the electorate come the Conservative's first policy announcement.

[jdobbin]

The moving target is the popular support for the Liberals under Dion. Polls done a week or so ago show one number but those numbers are changing and they'll change further once a campaign starts. Moreover, when people (particularly those who tell a pollster now that they'll vote Liberal) concentrate their minds, they're choice might be different.

The federal Liberal Party (or at least those who no effectively control it) no longer stands for anything at all. It certainly doesn't stand for National Unity since it will have no seats in French Quebec after this coming election (whereas the Conservatives will have 30 or more). Once this fact is understood in Ontario, then many Liberal voters will change parties and Liberal seats there will go Tory.

That is simply not an option.

As a "Liberal strategist" admits, Harper has cornered them and the Liberals will have no choice but defeat the government.

There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that we will have an election this fall. All the parties have agreed to it.

What numbers are you saying changed this week compared to last week's poll? I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are the Tories not polling the same numbers that won them a minority last election? You've seen something that indicates they are in majority territory?

As for your opinion of the Liberal party, it is just that: an opinion. Someone could say the same about the Conservatives now since they don't seem to have had any policies since the spring.

As for your Liberals strategist, there has been some wide speculation all day long with several Liberal saying abstention and others saying election. Dion has not said anything about how the party will vote.

[old_bold&cold]

I doubt that Dion will have much sway as to how his party votes because most liberals will go to fall back and just try to protect their own seats and leave Dions wishes where he found them. Right now Dion knows he can not win an election and he also knows he will be removed as leader before there would be another election after this one, if it actually happened. There will be very little unity in the ranks for an election this fall, for the Libs.

[jbg]

Harper doesn't want open warfare anymore and refuses to govern under those circumstances. It's his perogative. Power to him for making the choice clear for the Liberals.

But he can't just dissolve Parliament any more..

[jdobbin]

But he can't just dissolve Parliament any more..

If he declares it a matter of confidence, he does not require a vote. He has said so himself that if the Senate is slow on legislation or if a committee conducts national hearings, he can declare it a matter of confidence. He can go to the Governor-General and ask for an election.

Or do you disagree that is what he meant?

Edited October 6, 2007 by jdobbin

[jbg]

If he declares it a matter of confidence, he does not require a vote. He has said so himself that if the Senate is slow on legislation or if a committee conducts national hearings, he can declare it a matter of confidence. He can go to the Governor-General and ask for an election.

Or do you disagree that is what he meant?

If the Senate, which he can't dissolve, holds up legislation? That can't lead to an election. Just ask Gough Whitlam (though his GG didn't agree).

[jdobbin]

If the Senate, which he can't dissolve, holds up legislation? That can't lead to an election. Just ask Gough Whitlam (though his GG didn't agree).

The Canadian Senate cannot defeat money bills. They have a limited time they can be held up.

However, Harper is within his right under the new legislation that he passed to declare delays there a matter of confidence.

The prime minister of Canada can go to the Governor-General regardless of a vote on a matter of confidence. Harper himself has said that matters other than a vote would not constrain him from asking for an election. The legislation on fixed term elections does not affect the Constitutional authority of the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament on matters of confidence.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....=9867&st=74

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says his government will introduce a bill next week to establish fixed federal election dates every four years except in cases where the government is defeated in a House of Commons vote or is otherwise "prevented from governing."

What do you think "otherwise prevented from governing" means?

Edited October 6, 2007 by jdobbin

[Canadian Blue]

The last polls showed that Harper was at 33%. But while saying that I'd imagine it will jump if an election is called. So far Dion hasn't really proven to be effective in the HoC, and it seems that many Liberals would like him to go. We also have to take into consideration the fact that the NDP could very well siphon off enough votes from the Liberals in Quebec and other parts of the country which would allow the Conservatives to come up the middle.

My prediction is this, if an election is held today the Conservatives would still be shy of a minority, the Liberals and Bloc would lose seats, and the NDP will make a few gains while the Greens get more support in terms of the popular vote but no seats.

[Fortunata]

What do you think "otherwise prevented from governing" means?

I think it means whatever Harper decides it means. Right now it means that he thinks he can make gains electorally if he can make it look like it's the opposition's fault that an election was called.

[maldon_road]

But he can't just dissolve Parliament any more..

Imagine youse guys with a Parliamentary system?

Bush getting up every day in Question Period to justify his actions and being subject to non-confidence votes leading to elections.

Tony Blair went though all that.

[maldon_road]

The last polls showed that Harper was at 33%. But while saying that I'd imagine it will jump if an election is called. So far Dion hasn't really proven to be effective in the HoC, and it seems that many Liberals would like him to go. We also have to take into consideration the fact that the NDP could very well siphon off enough votes from the Liberals in Quebec and other parts of the country which would allow the Conservatives to come up the middle.

My prediction is this, if an election is held today the Conservatives would still be shy of a minority, the Liberals and Bloc would lose seats, and the NDP will make a few gains while the Greens get more support in terms of the popular vote but no seats.

Sounds reasonable. There is no great swell of opposition to Harper and as Dion's lack of campaigning skills became evident support would shift to the CPC.

[jbg]

Imagine youse guys with a Parliamentary system?

Bush getting up every day in Question Period to justify his actions and being subject to non-confidence votes leading to elections.

Tony Blair went though all that.

Tony Blair, with a majority, could whip the vote so as to ensure no fall on a confidence motion. What he could not do was protect himself from a leadership review. That is why, to avoid that he surrendered leadership to Gordon Brown.

[maldon_road]

Tony Blair, with a majority, could whip the vote so as to ensure no fall on a confidence motion. What he could not do was protect himself from a leadership review. That is why, to avoid that he surrendered leadership to Gordon Brown.

In the Parliamentary system, even with a majority, you are not always secure in your job.

[August1991]

What numbers are you saying changed this week compared to last week's poll? I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are the Tories not polling the same numbers that won them a minority last election? You've seen something that indicates they are in majority territory?

Here's a more recent poll:

Canada's ruling Conservatives have opened up a big lead over the opposition Liberals but do not have enough backing to win a majority in a federal election, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

The Harris-Decima survey for Canadian Press suggested Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government was starting to benefit from turmoil inside the Liberal Party over what some members say is a poor performance by leader Stephane Dion.

The poll put the Conservatives at 35 percent, up from 29 percent in a survey the same firm did in mid-June. The Liberals dropped to 28 percent from 32 percent.

...

The Harris-Decima survey of 1,000 people was carried out from October 6 to 9 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Reuters

[jdobbin]

Here's a more recent

Already posted that poll.

[August1991]

Already posted that poll.

I just noted that.

It seems germaine to post the poll here since you suggested in this thread that Conservative polling numbers would prevent an election. I too agreed that poll numbers were one thing to give Harper pause but I suspected that Harper has better poll numbers. He has a good breakdown of why people are choosing as they do.

Both the NDP and the Bloc have stated they will not support the government. It's obvious that Harper will suggest a programme that is anathema to the Liberals yet defendable to an electorate. The Liberals may try to wriggle out and avoid an election but I think they will just look even more slippery and unprincipled.

The main point is that a fall election now seems unavoidable.

Edited October 10, 2007 by August1991

[jdobbin]

I just noted that.

It seems germaine to post the poll here since you suggested in this thread that Conservative polling numbers would prevent an election. I too agreed that poll numbers were one thing to give Harper pause but I suspected that Harper has better poll numbers. He has a good breakdown of why people are choosing as they do.

Both the NDP and the Bloc have stated they will not support the government. It's obvious that Harper will suggest a programme that is anathema to the Liberals yet defendable to an electorate. The Liberals may try to wriggle out and avoid an election but I think they will just look even more slippery and unprincipled.

The main point is that a fall election now seems unavoidable.

And you expect a Conservative majority from what you see in this poll?

I have already stated I expect the Tories to be re-elected to a minority. You think the Liberals will collapse like Campbell on a national scale with the NDP as the Official Opposition?

[Michael Bluth]

It seems germaine to post the poll here since you suggested in this thread that Conservative polling numbers would prevent an election. I too agreed that poll numbers were one thing to give Harper pause but I suspected that Harper has better poll numbers. He has a good breakdown of why people are choosing as they do.

Both the NDP and the Bloc have stated they will not support the government. It's obvious that Harper will suggest a programme that is anathema to the Liberals yet defendable to an electorate. The Liberals may try to wriggle out and avoid an election but I think they will just look even more slippery and unprincipled.

The main point is that a fall election now seems unavoidable.

You are probably correct.

At this point the Liberals are flirting with John Turner's 'record' of 40 seats.

Which still could happen in the context of a Conservative minority Government.

Regardless, the Liberals are in big trouble. Election or not.

[Canuck E Stan]

The main point is that a fall election now seems unavoidable.

What Dion fears most if the fall election doesn't occur, is what will happen in the spring.

The Conservatives will present a major tax break in their spring budget,maybe the biggest one taxpayer have seen in decades.

With that in the game plan,Dion will do worse after the spring budget, far worse than anything he would encounter this fall.

At the same time if the throne speech is defeated,Harper will make these tax cuts sooner than later.

I too believe Harper will get a better standing minority or even a slight majority with an election win this fall.

Either way Harper and the Conservatives will win,and the Liberals will lose, the election, and maybe even Dion.

Tories announce $13.8B surplus, hint at tax cuts

But Tory insiders told CTV News the prime minister will hold out the promise of big tax cuts in next month's Throne Speech, which could well turn into a potential vote grabber for the Conservatives if the government is toppled.

CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert FIfe said Harper is ready to go to the voters with a broadly-based tax cut, if he's defeated.

[jbg]

It seems germaine to post the poll here since you suggested in this thread that Conservative polling numbers would prevent an election. I too agreed that poll numbers were one thing to give Harper pause but I suspected that Harper has better poll numbers. He has a good breakdown of why people are choosing as they do.

You can be sure that Harper's (and for that matter Dion's) figures are riding by riding, and they have a pretty good idea what will happen. At least until voters change their minds between a writ drop and the actual vote.

[jdobbin]

What Dion fears most if the fall election doesn't occur, is what will happen in the spring.

The Conservatives will present a major tax break in their spring budget,maybe the biggest one taxpayer have seen in decades.

With that in the game plan,Dion will do worse after the spring budget, far worse than anything he would encounter this fall.

At the same time if the throne speech is defeated,Harper will make these tax cuts sooner than later.

I too believe Harper will get a better standing minority or even a slight majority with an election win this fall.

Either way Harper and the Conservatives will win,and the Liberals will lose, the election, and maybe even Dion.

I have no doubt that the Tories would win an election. I think it will be a miracle of we make it to the spring budget.

As for tax cuts, I hope that all the parties talk about it in the next election so that we can compare which will be the best.

I think a 10% cut across the board will be the best type of cut.

[Michael Bluth]

What Dion fears most if the fall election doesn't occur, is what will happen in the spring.

The Conservatives will present a major tax break in their spring budget,maybe the biggest one taxpayer have seen in decades.

I think we could see the major tax break in the Speech from the Throne.

[geoffrey]

I think a 10% cut across the board will be the best type of cut.

Mmm mmm mmm. Jdobbin for PM. Why not just hit up 20%? You'd surely get my vote then.

[jdobbin]

Mmm mmm mmm. Jdobbin for PM. Why not just hit up 20%? You'd surely get my vote then.

Based on the $14 billion surplus, there have been a few analysts who have said that a 10% cut in income tax rates is manageable. And given the prediction again today of a downturn in next year's GDP, I think a tax cut would probably help keep economic growth going.

An article in the Globe and Mail in regards to Greenspan described the dangers of paying off debt too fast. I thought it was an odd thing to say but he was right. When you have surpluses that high, it means you are paying too much tax and that debt payment should be left inside a budget.

The 10% is manageable. 20% would probably be inflationary and without spending reductions could create a deficit situation. You disagree?

I honestly think if the Liberals want to move away from association that they are a tax and spend party, they need to propose the best tax decreases that can be conceived by anyone. I believe income tax decreases are the way to do that.

Edited October 10, 2007 by jdobbin