Canada's 2004 Election

[udawg]

I don't see why it would. The relationship between the BC Liberals and the LPOC is overblown. And this will probably have all cleared up by May, anyway... that's five months, and the RCMP should be done by March, I would think.

If it does delay the election a bit, I won't complain, however. Gives us all a bit more time to see what Martin's really about... for better or for worse.

[theWatcher]

Some points to ponder...

Will NDP supporters think they stand a chance this election and ACTUALLY VOTE NDP instead of strategically voting Liberal?

Will Ed Broadbent totally outclass and out politic Layton?

What does an NDP vote get you that a Liberal vote wouldn't?

If Canadians are really really really peaved at the Liberals, who are they going to vote for to get rid of them?

[maplesyrup]

The Liberals didn't used to be too bad under Chretien, Trudeau, etc., but now, eh?

It's just that the NDP are better, and anyway, they have never had a kick at the can. I doubt the NDP could screw things, up any worse than those that have, or have had, power.

Hopefully they will be an honest and sensible government with integrity, and most importantly, that they would be very careful with the country's finances.

[Neal.F.]

Maplesyrup, I assure you, they can screw things up worse than the Liberals. Can you imagine what would happen if you gave Svend Robinson real power?

He's done enough damage as a member of the 5th party in parliament!!!!!!!

And if the NDP ever did come to power, it would bring with it other unsavoury characters...like Jaggi Singh, Sunera Thobani, Judy Rebick, Buzz Hargrove etc, for instance.

It would be the gutter taking power.

[maplesyrup]

Hi Neil.F.......political discussions can get heated and people can get worked up over things, but those comments of yours on the previous post are inappropriate and unacceptable. Please remove them and I will remove them here as well.

Quote

Maplesyrup, I assure you, they can screw things up worse than the Liberals. Can you imagine what would happen if you gave Svend Robinson real power?

He's done enough damage as a member of the 5th party in parliament!!!!!!!

And if the NDP ever did come to power, it would bring with it other unsavoury characters...like Jaggi Singh for instance.

It would be the gutter taking power.

Unquote.

Disagreeing with someone's point of view is fine, but don't use personal attacks or putdowns. For one thing, it weakens your argument, just like swearing does. Some people believe if you have to swear, you aren't very well educated having such a small vocabularly, and therefore not worth listening to. I don't believe that was your intention

Thanks very much.

Edited January 8, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Neal.F.]

Maplesyrup, Unless you can prove that I am guilty of saying anything untrue, I will NOT retract even one jot or tittle of what I wrote.

Bill C-250 is the most damaging piece of legislation ever proposed in terms of freedom of speech. This law could very well silence, by force of law, anyone who dares to criticize the homosexual lifestyle,and all its ingerent health risks in the slightest. How would you feel if suddenly a law was passed, promotedby a bought & paid for lackey of the tobaco industry, that threatened you with legal remedies if you dared to criticize smoking?

What about Robinson being present at the physician assisted suicide of Sue Rodriguez? The fact of the matter is, that wherever you stand on the issue of euthanasia, it is still illegal under thecriminal code. He broke the law. he is accessory to murder. If you or I did such a thing, we'd have been prosecuted.

What about Robinson getiing in with tree spikers in BC? The NDP purports to represent the worker, but who wouldhave been injured or killed when a chainsaw hit those spikes? Certainly not a suit from Macmillan Bloedel.

Then there was the time he used a room in the parliament to train protestors for the G-8 riots in Quebec City. Taxpayers expense to teach people how to riot.

And guess who got the bill for the vandalism?

[maplesyrup]

Martin recalls Parliament for Feb. 2

http://64.4.36.250/cgi-bin/linkrd?_lang=EN...%2d6CC047C71F06

'Martin said his legislative priorities include creating an independent ethics commissioner, introducing an electoral boundaries bill and passing patent legislation to permit the export of drugs to help fight AIDS in Africa.

He also confirmed that a bill to decriminalize marijuana will be reintroduced and dismissed suggestions that the gun registry be scrapped.'

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'Liberal MPs fight Martin's gas tax plan

Revenue for cities: Senior caucus members say Ottawa cannot afford it yet

'Anne Dawson, Chief Political Correspondent, with files from Siri Agrell,

National Post'

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpos...4c-8757f1d816a2

'An opposition MP suggested the Liberals' criticism of the gas tax may have been made at the behest of Mr. Martin, looking for a way out of the commitment'

'Jack Layton, the NDP leader and a former Toronto councillor and one-time president of the FCM, has accused Mr. Martin of stalling on his gas tax promise. He said the Prime Minister, who campaigned extensively during the Liberal leadership race on a "new deal" for cities that specifically touted the gas tax, should have been ready to roll out his plan immediately upon his coronation last month.'

Edited January 8, 2004 by maplesyrup

[maplesyrup]

Maybe I should be revising my forecast upward for the NDP in the next federal political opinion poll. Seriously.

'Opposition could get the last laugh

Liberals should not be arrogant about election prospects'

John Ivison

National Post

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpos...b8-d2a15efe8ab9

'In the meantime, the only relief from reliving the past over and over could be the surprising resurgence of the left-wing opposition parties.'

'The same sentiments could be expressed about those who have doggedly stuck with the notion that the NDP and Bloc Quebecois will have a serious impact on the next election.

The conventional wisdom in the watering holes of Ottawa has been that the Liberals risked losing seats to a united right, particularly in Ontario, but would more than compensate by cherry-picking NDP seats and obliterating the Bloc.

However, there are early signs that things might not quite go according to this plan, largely because the Paul Martin campaign team appears to be so used to fighting the last war against Jean Chretien that it hasn't yet identified the new enemy.

NDP leader Jack Layton's emphasis on image over issues has piqued interest in the media and apparently caused confusion in Liberal ranks about how to react. The response has been a number of strategic aberrations that have left campaign veterans of all stripes scratching their heads.

Layton has been taking the fight to Paul Martin in a barrage of criticism that has included referring to the Prime Minister as "a practising coal baron" and questioning which flag of convenience his family company ships are flying to avoid Canadian taxes and environmental standards. One Web site segment quotes a Canadian seaman who used to work for the Martin family's Canada Steamship Lines but has since been replaced by a cheaper Filipino worker: "At 54 years old, what am I going to do?"

Cheeky, manipulative and not quite in the Corinthian spirit that one might expect from those nice, ragged-trousered philanthropists. As far as the Liberals were concerned, it was so much water off a duck's back -- until this week when they decided to retaliate with their own Web site broadside under the banner: "Say Anything Jack." Calling the NDP leader "the King of Shock," it adopted the NDP's own style of rhetoric, claiming Layton had broken "the land-speed record for most number of fabrications per minute."

Now this is all knock-about stuff, the typical fodder of bored young researchers. But its appearance is perhaps a sign that the Liberals are rattled by Layton and unsure how to fight back.

"The NDP's biggest enemies are irrelevancy and invisibility. Martin's people have made us relevant and visible," said one NDP source. "It was breathtakingly stupid."

More question marks over Liberal strategy were raised yesterday. The Post ran a story in which senior Liberal MPs John McKay, parliamentary secretary to the Finance Minister, and John Godfrey, parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister, queried the proposal to hand over a portion of federal gas revenues to municipalities as part of Martin's new deal for cities.

On the same day, there were reports the government is going to significantly alter the $1-billion gun registry in order to appeal to Western Canada.

"Is there a strategy here," asked one veteran Liberal. "I'm not saying there is no strategy or that, if there is, it's not working. It's just I can't figure out what it is."

Another Liberal said he was shocked when he saw the gun registry story. "What we are doing is taking a sleeping dog -- gun control -- and giving it a couple of swift kicks. It looks like we're playing retail politics and saying whatever appeals to particular electoral groups. But Canadians are skeptical of this stuff."

The obvious beneficiaries of this apparent rightward drift are the NDP and the Bloc. There will be those in the Liberal party, arrogant in their convictions about their own invulnerability, who will merely shrug their shoulders. But if that is the case, they probably do not represent ridings in the Greater Toronto Area. One source said internal Liberal polling shows Dennis Mills, Maria Minna, Tony Ianno and Jean Augustine would all lose their seats to NDP candidates, should an election be held now.

It's not often that a Toronto Star editorial can be called thundering but last Sunday, the paper put Paul Martin on notice that he had better act on his new deal promises or he could see the Star switch its support to Layton. "If Toronto's hopes are shattered and trust in change is replaced by a sense of betrayal, politicians who were eagerly supported in the past could be scorned in the future," it wrote. The subsequent backpedalling by the Martin camp is a poor return for Mills, the man who brought the Pope and the Rolling Stones to Canada.

But it is not just in Toronto that the Liberals could face increased competition. Former NDP leader Ed Broadbent could expect roughly the same welcome from Liberal insider and prospective MP Richard Mahoney as the two hikers entering the Slaughtered Lamb pub in the film American Werewolf in London, after announcing his candidacy in Ottawa Centre. And there are other urban ridings in Vancouver and Halifax where the NDP has high hopes. In the 2000 election, the Dippers had just $3.5-million to spend and didn't run any major market advertising in the run-up to polling day. This time around, the party is on target to raise $12-million and will spend heavily in Toronto and Ottawa to ensure victory for its star candidates.

In Quebec, the Bloc appeared to be heading into footnotoriety last summer, with its polling numbers slipping to 28% in the province. But a Leger Marketing poll last month suggested the party was regaining lost ground, up 10 points at around 38% of the vote. "The Bloc is looking for wedge issues and will use things like gun control to show that the Liberals are out of touch with Quebec and chasing votes from the gun lobby," said one strategist. The pictures of Martin and George Bush cozying up that are likely to emerge from next week's gathering in Mexico will hardly assuage concerns in Quebec that the Liberals are drifting rightward.

But if a decision has been taken by the Liberal braintrust to sacrifice Mills and his Toronto colleagues -- calls to find out were not returned by the party -- there is an element of logic to it.

Whoever wins the Conservative party leadership will be a serious threat to many marginal Liberal seats across the country. Under Stockwell Day, the Alliance came within 4% of winning 20 Ontario ridings. Joe Jordan, the Liberal MP for Leeds-Granville, won his seat by 55 votes last time and the local provincial member, Bob Runciman, has made noises about running federally this year. "Runciman could win that seat without leaving his house," said one strategist.

David Pratt, the new Defence Minister, narrowly won Nepean-Carleton by 2,200 votes over the Alliance, while the Tories polled 9,500. Even if one plus one only equals one and a half, Pratt had better hope his elevated profile is enough to prevent him going tubular.

In the final analysis, the opposition parties look to be an election cycle away from posing a serious threat and it will be difficult for Martin not to win a majority. But a loss of 20 seats puts him in a minority government position. And if his team continues to misfire, or if his party doesn't appear hungry enough for victory, 5% of the voters could easily look at their options. If there are signs of slippage when Parliament resumes, Liberals will be hoping that Wiarton Willie, Canada's own groundhog prognosticator, stays in his cage.

Ran with fact box "Martin's Search for Clarity" which had been appended to the story. '

Edited January 8, 2004 by maplesyrup

[maplesyrup]

Another shock for the Paul Martin Liberals.

The Toronto Star, usually a staunch supporter of the federal Liberals, is begining to waver, may be switching to the NDP, according to John Ivison, a columnist, in the National Post today.

Toronto Star Editorial: Sun, Jan 4, 2003

'Change in the air for Toronto area'

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentSe...id=970599119419

'Federally, Prime Minister Paul Martin has also promised change and has repeatedly spoken in favour of a new deal for urban areas.

It's too late for federal and provincial politicians to retreat from those promises. If Toronto's hopes are shattered, and trust in change is replaced by a sense of betrayal, politicians who were eagerly supported in the past could be scorned in the future.

Electoral support by voters in Toronto and the 905 region shouldn't be taken for granted, especially by politicians who will be running in the federal election expected in April or May. If politicians fail to deliver the new deal they promised, Torontonians might just elect people who will.'

Edited January 8, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Neal.F.]

The Star will come out for the Liberals at the end of the day. They are obliated to, because of the legacy of the founder.

What you are hearing now is the only way they can voice their displeasure with Martin.

905 will vote NDP when hell freezes over. They will go Conservative.

[maplesyrup]

NDP's Jack Layton developing national presence, exhibiting the real contrasts between the Liberals and the NDP, look for NDP to continue to rise in the polls.

'Layton yaps at PM's heels'

by Chantel Hebert

Toronto Star

http://www.torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/Conte...ist969907622983

'Yes, the NDP has been edging up in the polls, rattling urban Liberal MPs in the process. And yes, many of the hot potatoes Martin is handling could end up feeding a New Democrat recovery in the next election.'

[Neal.F.]

Most of the NDP so-called urban support will evaporate on election day. They just won't bother showing up.

However, they will retain party status because their organization on the Prairies and a few other pockets of strength WILL get the vote out.

And the odds are on heavy that Svend Robinson will open his useless trap once too often in his grandstanding, and will make people think twice about voting for such a bunch.

[maplesyrup]

MARBELLGATE

This is the main story today on the front page the Vancouver Sun.

'Liberal leadership drive dogged by discrepancies

Pro-Martin membership list in B.C. is padded with duplicates'

by Jeff Lee and Peter O'Neil

http://www.canada.com/search/story.aspx?id...8ca0-4b99-8f14-

'The federal Liberal party, during its recent leadership drive, sold some individuals more than one membership at more than one address.

The recruiting drive during Paul Martin's leadership campaign produced a number of discrepancies in the members' list.

In one case, 17 memberships were sold to people in eight families in one house in the 200-block of East 58th Avenue The memberships listed six telephone numbers; a cross-reference of those telephone numbers connects them to at least another 21 memberships at several other homes in the same riding. '

Edited January 10, 2004 by maplesyrup

[maplesyrup]

MARBELLGATE

'Lives of Basi and Virk intertwined long before the legislature raids'

by Lori Culbert and Jim Beatty

in the Vancouver Sun

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?...A3-43AD1DF8EB13

'Collins and Basi maintained their friendship and shared mutual interests in federal politics. Both are federal Liberals who were involved in the Young Liberal Association.'

Edited January 10, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Pellaken]

905 will vote NDP when hell freezes over.

its -40 in central and eastern canada...

does that count?

but seriously, I think think that too many rural areas will "turn" NDP. I think its more likely that all 32 toronto ridings will vote NDP then 1 riding in the "outer belt" (not including places like hamilton, oshawa, etc)

[maplesyrup]

Concerning the urban areas, with Martin's leadership campaign ploy to offer the gas tax to the muncipalities, and now to bail on that promise, has thrown Canada's muncipalities into a crisis, to the point where the majors of Canada's 10 largest cities have announced a meeting shortly.

So I agree with you that the NDP are going to do very well, especially in the urban areas.

With redistribution, there is going to be an addition of four urban ridings and a deduction of one rural riding, for a net increase of 3 seats.

MARBELLGATE

My concern is that this scandal is going to completely collapse the support for the Liberals in BC. There's this guy named Bill Cunningham who has been trying to put out the Federal Liberal party fires on this growing disaster for them, but every time he opens his mouth, he makes things worse. I think he's President of the Federal Liberals in BC, but one would think he would have more sense. That whole federal Liberal party executive in BC should have already stepped down until the air is cleared over this.

'Murky scandal nibbles at credibility of two governments'

by Vaughn Palmer

Vancouver Sun

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/vancouvers...C9-FE9124FBA9F9

'Plus, there are any number of political connections, from suggestions that the investigation somehow involves the provincial government's sale of BC Rail assets, to indications that it may touch on the organizing and fundraising activities of the federal Liberal party in B.C.'

Edited January 11, 2004 by maplesyrup

[theWatcher]

Some Poll numbers from:

Liberals Strengthen Voter Support as Paul Martin Takes up the Reins

Paul Martin's early honeymoon with Canadians is clearly benefiting his party. The Federal Liberals have increased their electoral support since October, and is now the choice of more than half (51%) of decided voters if an election were held today (up from 46% in October). This represents the strongest level of support enjoyed by the governing party since 1994.

The newly-merged Conservative Party of Canada is now clearly in second place with 24 percent of decided voters, but it has not managed to retain all of the supporters from the two old parties from which it has formed, much less attract new voters from the Liberals. In October, 27 percent of decided voters indicated they would vote for either the Canadian Alliance (14%) or the Progressive Conservative (13%) parties. 24% Ontario, 17% Toronto

The New Democratic Party occupies third place with 15 percent support, unchanged from October, and essentially the same since 2002. One in ten (11%) eligible voters remain undecided on which party they might support were an election held today.

In both Ontario and Toronto the NDP is at 14%, they are at 31% in Manitoba and 20% in Sask and 23% in BC.

The wording suggests this is a Liberal backed poll...

[Pellaken]

recent polls have showen the NDP's naitonal vote is almost locked to its ontario vote. if we are at 17% naitonally, we are at 17% in ontario, etc.

[maplesyrup]

'Prime Minister Paul Martin shifting Liberals to the right: NDP's Broadbent'

-from CJAD Radio

http://www.cjad.com/content/cjad_news/arti....asp?id=n01109A

'Paul Martin "is a symbol - even more than a symbol, he's the leader of a movement in the Liberal party that has had the effect . . . of shedding its social-democratic component virtually completely," said Broadbent, 67, who's seeking the NDP nomination in Ottawa Centre.

Martin, a self-made millionaire through his ownership of a major shipping line, has brought the narrow values of corporate Canada into public life, says Broadbent.

"His whole association has been with the more conservative, corporate sector in Canada that . . . has not been on the leading edge of social reform."'

'Broadbent couldn't resist a jab at Martin and what he calls the prime minister's empty rhetoric such as his slogan, the "politics of achievement."

"What does that mean? Can you imagine anyone being for the politics of unachievement?," said Broadbent. "It's a vacuous phrase that leads nowhere."

Broadbent said it's also difficult to understand where Martin stands on issues such as gay marriage or decriminalization of marijuana.

The public is tolerant of the fact politicians can't be experts on every issue but won't have much patience when Martin "waffles."

"People look at the substance of an issue but they also look for the virtue of decisiveness."

Those are bound to be issues during the expected spring federal election campaign, which will also focus on equality of incomes and taxes, he predicted.'

Edited January 11, 2004 by maplesyrup

[maplesyrup]

MARBELLGATE

'Island MP on brink of joining Liberals

Rumours swirl that political storms may have given him pause'

By Jack Knox

Times Colonist

http://www.canada.com/search/story.aspx?id...bf-5fc6c4703fb5

'Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca MP Keith Martin could jump to the Liberals by the end of this week.

That is, unless you believe the rumours that he has shied away from the switch because of all the unpleasantness involving Basi's Boys, the raid at the legislature and the power politics being played within the Liberal party.'

'But there were also rumours last week that Martin had become disillusioned by the negativity that hit the federal Liberals after the raid at the legislature Dec. 28.'

'If he doesn't go to the Liberals, it will be yet another sign that Paul Martin really does have a problem in B.C., where his support is being undermined by the sleaze factor. '

Edited January 11, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Neal.F.]

Well, if Keith Martin doesn't jump to the Liberals, I'm sure he'll get behind "Paul Martin in a cocktail dress".

her social liberalism is right down his alley.

In other words, if he did pull a Joe Pesky-mosquito and jump, he'd be no great loss, and gurantee his own defeat at the polls next time out.

[maplesyrup]

The right Honourable Jean Chretien is 70 years old today.

Happy Birthday Mr Chretien, we miss you (and so do more and more Liberals)!

'Raids Prompt Revelations of Martin-Campbell Connections'

by Bill Tieleman

Georgia Straight

(Vancouver has two English speaking dailies, the Vancouver Sun and The Province, both owned by Canwest, the Georgia Straight is a weekly.)

http://www.straight.com/?defaultarticle=20...9dff6863c7ca3c0

'The information also shows the extensive links between the Paul Martin federal and Gordon Campbell provincial Liberals. It includes: a list of more than 11,000 Indo-Canadian federal Liberal political supporters in British Columbia obtained by the Straight that indicates the potential extent of Liberal membership sign-ups done by the Martin leadership campaign; confirmation that the federal Liberal party in B.C. privately chartered an airliner to fly more than 200 Young Liberals from Vancouver to the November leadership convention in Toronto at a cost of almost $90,000; and extensive links between a money-losing telecommunications company, many of those who were subject to police search warrants, and key provincial and federal Liberal party insiders and supporters. '

Edited January 11, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Neal.F.]

We miss him like a hole in the head.

[Michael Hardner]

The Watcher:

The wording suggests this is a Liberal backed poll...

What wording ? Environics, being a professional firm with an interest in accurate polling, explains the methodology at the bottom of the poll:

The question in question is:

If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the newly merged Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, or [Quebec Only] the Bloc Quebecois?

Pollsters are instructed to rotate the party names so that those polled don't simply choose the first party mentioned.

The CPC has lost 3% over the CA/PC total of a month earlier. Not a bad result...

I hope this isn't a "shoot the messenger" type of thing...

[maplesyrup]

'NDP Launches 'No Star Wars' Internet Ad Fund'

http://www.ndp.ca/

'Paul Martin's racing to join Star Wars missile defence - and we've got to act fast to stop him. So the NDP's going to buy print ads in major newspapers to let Canadians know why Martin's dead wrong on Star Wars - and the more people who donate, the bigger the ads will be.

Will you make a small donation of just $5 (or more) to help Jack Layton and Canada's NDP stop Star Wars? Would you give $5 to urge Martin to spend those billions on technology that really makes the world secure, like technology to fight climate change'

------------------

Also it looks like Chuck Strahl's website has changed, hmmm, wonder what that signifies.