By-Elections

[August1991]

The Tories are doing very well in Roberval (about 60% of the vote) and well in St-Hyacinthe also, although the BQ will likely keep the seat.

It looks now like Mulcair will win Outremont.

It's a bad night for the Liberals and a good night for the Conservatives. The NDP would be mistaken if they draw any conclusions from this single by-election (although you'll hear talk of the BQ dividing up into Conservative and NDP wings).

Chretien and his sponsorship scandal, and Martin's reaction to it, have caused an immeasurable harm to the Liberals (both federal and provincial) in Quebec.

I think we're closer to a federal election, except if Duceppe decides to get cold feet.

[jdobbin]

The Tories are doing very well in Roberval (about 60% of the vote) and well in St-Hyacinthe also, although the BQ will likely keep the seat.

It looks now like Mulcair will win Outremont.

It's a bad night for the Liberals and a good night for the Conservatives. The NDP would be mistaken if they draw any conclusions from this single by-election (although you'll hear talk of the BQ dividing up into Conservative and NDP wings).

Chretien and his sponsorship scandal, and Martin's reaction to it, have caused an immeasurable harm to the Liberals (both federal and provincial) in Quebec.

I think we're closer to a federal election, except if Duceppe decides to get cold feet.

It is quite the defeat for the Liberals. I expect that there will be some who ask for Dion's resignation tomorrow.

[Michael Bluth]

CTV has called all three ridings.

Pretty much as expected.

St. Hyacinthe - Bloc

Roberval - Conservative

Outremont - NDP

Shocking was the incredibly weak Liberal results in the elections outside the Island of Montreal.

It appears that the Liberals won't even reach 10% of the vote in St. Hyacinthe or Roberval.

Robert Fife said it best. Dion is a severely wounded leader and if he can't win in Quebec why should Ontarians vote for him?

Edited September 18, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[capricorn]

Now the interesting question. Will the accusations that Iggy's team purposely failed to provide the required support to Coulon in Outremont gain steam? A very, very bad showing by the Liberals in these by-elections. An even worse scenario for party unity.

As for my prediction well....one out of 3 ain't bad.

[August1991]

As for my prediction well....one out of 3 ain't bad.

I'm not too surprised about Roberval but I must admit that Outremont has surprised me.

I'm happy in a way because I didn't like Coulon. He's one of those intellectual experts who doesn't have much sense. But I still thought he'd win.

Outremont is a gerrymandered riding that's getting stranger and stranger over time. If one adds in the fact that this is a by-election, the result is not too odd. (BTW, Lapierre only won with 3000 votes in 2006.)

[old_bold&cold]

With these results I do not see there being much will to call a federal election. The Block did win one seat but lost one, so this probably is not the kind of environment that they would want to hinge a full scale election on, and the NDP winning one from the liberals may bolster jacks rhetoric, I do not see the Liberals wanting to face the voters at this time. So when Parliament starts anew in Oct. there probably will not be the push to bring down the government that there was just yesterday.

Harper had nothing to lose and he gained a seat, and that will make him happy. Whats more he gained a lot of political time for his party.

[Michael Bluth]

Did anybody reognize that guy standing beside Dryden during Dion's speech?

He had the most amazing "who is this guy kidding" face while listening to Stephane.

Edited September 18, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[capricorn]

Iggy definitely had a smirk on his face while trying to crack a smile. Denis Coderre looked like he had a slice of lemon in his mouth.

There was sheer jubilation as Thomas Mulcair was praised by Layton. The most lively I've seen the NDP who are usually so morose.

[jdobbin]

Now the interesting question. Will the accusations that Iggy's team purposely failed to provide the required support to Coulon in Outremont gain steam? A very, very bad showing by the Liberals in these by-elections. An even worse scenario for party unity.

As for my prediction well....one out of 3 ain't bad.

I think that we will see a huge discussion about what happens next for the Liberals. I expect that Dion will have a hard time surviving the next few months.

[jdobbin]

I'm not too surprised about Roberval but I must admit that Outremont has surprised me.

I'm happy in a way because I didn't like Coulon. He's one of those intellectual experts who doesn't have much sense. But I still thought he'd win.

We'll see if Dion is asked to resign tomorrow or at the next caucus meeting.

[Shakeyhands]

I hope its tomorrow.

[ScottSA]

I hope he hangs on till the election is called.

[Michael Bluth]

Wow.

Listen to the knives come out.

Dion won't be forced out. He might quit, but it would be highly unlikely that he gets forced out.

Unprecedented for either of the major parties in whatever incarnation.

It's almost sad this once proud party has fallen so far, so quickly.

So much for Canada's Natural Governing party.

[jdobbin]

I hope he hangs on till the election is called.

Unless Harper decides to call an election regardless of the legislation in place, I'm not sure that Dion can survive before the next election.

Perhaps they will anoint someone like Frank McKenna to distance themselves from anyone associated with the Liberals under Chretien.

In any event, the Tories were still tied with the Liberals at 33% in the last federal poll a few weeks ago. Unless there has been a change since then, a majority is still just out of reach.

[Michael Bluth]

In any event, the Tories were still tied with the Liberals at 33% in the last federal poll a few weeks ago. Unless there has been a change since then, a majority is still just out of reach.

Change? Hmmm... the Liberals losing one of their safest seats in the country in a by-election and finishing with less than ten percent of the vote in by-elections in two Francophone ridings.

Yes, I would say things have definitely changed.

[ScottSA]

What has changed is the usual. In between elections people tend to recall the last politician they heard about, or the last one they voted for if they voted at all. It's when the election wanders around that the tent either collapses or doesn't. Dion's tent is neatly folded and put away.

[jdobbin]

What has changed is the usual. In between elections people tend to recall the last politician they heard about, or the last one they voted for if they voted at all. It's when the election wanders around that the tent either collapses or doesn't. Dion's tent is neatly folded and put away.

If that is the case, then we will see in the very next federal poll whether the Tories are in majority territory.

[August1991]

It's almost sad this once proud party has fallen so far, so quickly.

So much for Canada's Natural Governing party.

True. The Liberals were once seen as the party of Quebec, but no more.

The Liberals would look like true amateur Keystone Kops if they make a move to ditch Dion. As much as I have tried to connect the sponsorship scandal to him, in all honesty, the problem cannot be put on his shoulders. So if the Liberals try to ditch Dion, they will not only appear like amateurs, they'll also appear to be people unwilling to face reality. "If we just change our leader, we'll get back into power... "

Edited September 18, 2007 by August1991

[capricorn]

It's almost sad this once proud party has fallen so far, so quickly.

So much for Canada's Natural Governing party.

M.B., I don't know that it happened that quickly. I used to be a Liberal supporter. What finished me was adscam and the growing arrogance of the Liberal party top echelons. But all this seemed to take a long time to gel. We need a strong opposition. Parliament is simply just not effective without it.

I have been listening to William Johnson, political pundit, on CPAC. He predicted that the way things are now, the end of the Liberal party is imminent. This is not good all around.

Perhaps the idea of the Liberals and the NDP merging into one party might not be such a bad idea. Who knows.

[jdobbin]

True. The Liberals were once seen as the party of Quebec, but no more.

The Liberals would look like true amateur Keystone Kops if they make a move to ditch Dion. As much as I have tried to connect the sponsorship scandal to him, in all honesty, the problem cannot be put on his shoulders. So if the Liberals try to ditch Dion, they will not only appear like amateurs, they'll also appear to be people unwilling to face reality. "If we just change our leader, we'll get back into power... "

The by-elections in Ontario might give Dion some breathing room but the run for the leadership has now begun behind closed doors.

If the issue becomes 'if we don't change our leader, we will be reduced to third or fourth party status" then the Liberals will look like amateurs for not moving to deal with that problem.

[August1991]

With these results I do not see there being much will to call a federal election.

Something that has gone unnoticed is that these by-elections reinforce the position of the Tories in the House.

Harper can rely now more certainly on any one party for support to stay in power. The Tories have 126 seats and the NDP 30. In effect, it will take all three opposition parties ganging up to defeat the government.

As long as Harper keeps one party happy, or avoids putting one party into a corner, he can govern as long as he wants.

I think Canadians will reward Conservatives if Harper makes a minority government fnction. It will play against the meme that Harper is a stubborn critter who doesn't play well with others.

Edited September 18, 2007 by August1991

[jdobbin]

I have been listening to William Johnson, political pundit, on CPAC. He predicted that the way things are now, the end of the Liberal party is imminent. This is not good all around.

Perhaps the idea of the Liberals and the NDP merging into one party might not be such a bad idea. Who knows.

Imminent to me would be if the next poll shows the Liberals dropping to third or fourth place and the Tories being in majority territory. I don't know if that is going happen right away and if it did, it would hasten Dion's departure most certainly.

There won't be a merger between the NDP and Liberals anytime soon. It wouldn't be a party that I'd join.

[Michael Bluth]

Something that has gone unnoticed is that these by-elections reinforce the position of the Tories in the House.

Harper can rely now more certainly on any one party for support to stay in power. The Tories have 126 seats and the NDP 30. In effect, it will take all three opposition parties ganging up to defeat the government.

That doesn't make that much of a difference. It does however, give the Conservatives a little mroe breathing room in case of a nutbar NDP MP ignorning Layton whipping the caucus on a vote.

With the tories at 125 and the NDP at 29 they had a combined 154 votes.

Milliken abstains except in the case of a tie, so 154 is a bare majority of the 307 votes eligible to be cast under regular circumstances.

[capricorn]

There won't be a merger between the NDP and Liberals anytime soon. It wouldn't be a party that I'd join.

jd, I think the issue of the Liberal leadership is a matter of urgency. Seriously, if Dion cares about the future of the party he should step down immediately.

I won't see a merger of the Liberals and the NDP in my lifetime that's for sure. In any case, the mere thought that such a melded party could encompass NDP philosophy, well I could just not support it.

Edit: It's not that I advocate a merger as such. The idea has been thrown around. It may be the only way to build a viable opposition should the Conservatives take power in a perpetual majority.

Edited September 18, 2007 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

jd, I think the issue of the Liberal leadership is a matter of urgency. Seriously, if Dion cares about the future of the party he should step down immediately.

I won't see a merger of the Liberals and the NDP in my lifetime that's for sure. In any case, the mere thought that such a melded party could encompass NDP philosophy, well I could just not support it.

Dion has rarely stepped away from a fight. However, his opportunity to turn the organization around is quickly narrowing.

He might be asked by some to resign tomorrow. However, many will probably wait to see how Ontario's election and upcoming by-elections will turn out.

I would never join a combined party. I'd rather be in a party with one MP that I agreed with in principle than a party with many MPs that I didn't agree with.

Edited September 18, 2007 by jdobbin