Quebec Election: 26 March 2007

[Charles Anthony]

As I undertsand it, Boisclair went yesterday to Laval University (very sympathetic group) and then in effect raised the question in response to an interview that occurred almost two weeks ago.

I believe the responsibility over the issue of homophobia is more likely a two-way street between the candidates and the media. CAVEAT: My opinion is derived from casual observation of the news.

Today, the issue was brought up again by a radio host (Corus network) who interviewed some McCutcheon guy, a Quebec gay-group representative and they discussed the issue on an on. A federal Liberal MP was asked his opinion on the matter and he wish-washed away from commenting on the original provocative statement. The host went on and on about that too.

I realize this is anecdotal from a few hours on one network but my point is that the media are feeding the homophobia-sympathy issue too.

Quebec could wake up to be in the same situation as Ontario was when Bob Rae became premier.

Do you honestly think it will make much of a difference?

Meanwhile, in other news, an other Quebec union turns down a contract offer and the employer, Verreault Navigation, announces it will close shop.

[August1991]

A major investigation into a suspected cocaine-trafficking ring in the Montreal area ended in tragedy yesterday when a newly promoted detective was shot dead as he and other officers stormed into the home of a bar owner to execute a search warrant.

G & M

This will have repercussions on Boisclair. (How can it not?) Too many in the PQ will blame this for the results.

---

BTW, this is mostly (exclusively?) a story for English-Canada:

Not long ago, André Boisclair suggested the crucifix at Quebec's National Assembly should be removed to reflect the province's secularism. He quickly dropped the idea after realizing he'd misjudged Quebeckers' readiness to break with tradition.

Now, in the midst of an election campaign, the Parti Québécois Leader is discovering far too late that his sexual orientation has become another kind of cross for him to bear. As absurd as it sounds in 2007, Mr. Boisclair and his party may well have overestimated Quebeckers' readiness to elect an openly gay premier.

G & M

No one really cares in Quebec whether Boisclair is gay. That's not Boisclair's problem now (as if it ever was). His and the PQ's problems are entirely different.

[August1991]

This is not going well for Boisclair.

Embattled Parti Québécois Leader André Boisclair, who once bragged that he wouldn't cozy up to the labour movement, accepted Sunday the endorsement of the province's largest trade union.

....

The meeting with Mr. Massé on Saturday was a reminder of Mr. Boisclair's past gaffe, when he said in a television interview that, unlike his predecessors, he wouldn't get “buddy-buddy” with union leaders and “spend evenings (together) dinning with plenty of wine.”

G & M

Boisclair also tried to make peace with hog farmers. In the process, he managed to lose the environmental vote without getting much in the way of farm support.

I would expect to see next the big cannons of the PQ (Parizeau, Landry, maybe even Marois) come out in support of the party.

If Dumont rises any more in thepolls, there will also be the *scary, scary* Mario comments.

[August1991]

This campaign is getting boisterous and we still have three weeks to go.

Mario Dumont told a crowd of about a thousand supporters yesterday Premier Jean Charest "tells us lies to our faces," and Quebecers deserve better.

...

"We deserve better than Jean Charest, who did not keep his word, did not tell the truth, who falsified the figures rather than improving the reality," he said.

In Montreal, where Henri Masse, president of the Quebec Federation of Labour, endorsed the PQ, Boisclair was asked about the continuing exchange between Charest and Dumont that has excluded Boisclair.

"It's a quarrel between federalists," Boisclair said, calling Dumont a "merchant of illusions."

"If you look at the PQ platform, they don't have lessons to give to others," Dumont said. "We have a platform that is perfectly realistic.

Dumont suggested Boisclair resents being out of the limelight. "I understand Mr. Boisclair wants to be part of the debate this weekend," he said.

In Rimouski, Dumont said the alliance between the QFL and the PQ was "nothing new," but it shows Boisclair isn't calling the shots in the PQ. "I think everyone has understood that, inside his party and elsewhere, Mr. Boisclair has been put in his place."

Montreal Gazette

The TV debate, scheduled for Tuesday 13 March, risks being venomous.

Something else. It looks likely there will be a minority government in which case these guys are going to have to get along.

[August1991]

This is funny.

Charest and Dumont are attacking each other based on the quality of various candidates. The Liberals find an ADQ candidate who has decided to take a week vacation in Florida in the middle of the campaign.

Dumont answers that the candidate is a mother who promised to take her kids to Florida during the March break. Dumont finishes by saying that the ADQ is the "party of families".

Interrogé sur sa candidate dans la circonscription de Bonaventure, Karine Delarosbil, qui s'est envolée pour des vacances en Floride en pleine campagne électorale, Mario Dumont s'est montré particulièrement accommodant. Il juge que c'est tout à fait normal que cette mère de famille profite de la semaine de relâche avec ses enfants, d'autant plus qu'elle leur a promis ces vacances. Le chef adéquiste trouve même qu'il s'agit là d'une preuve que « l'ADQ est le parti de la famille. »

R-C

[Charles Anthony]

It is getting funnier and pathetic.

When it comes to the gay-sympathy angle, I am inclined to think that my characterization of it being a two-way street is still accurate. The stupid BrokeBackMountain skit is being dragged out, dusted off and replayed by the media -- not by Boisclair nor by the party.

However, it does not help to have a PQ candidate publish a controvertial history book about the Ruwandan genocide.

[Canadian Blue]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Is it just me, or is Bosclair possibly one of the most incompetent political leaders in the last 5 years.

[Charles Anthony]

Is it just me, or is Bosclair possibly one of the most incompetent political leaders in the last 5 years.

Unless you can link his leadership competency to a book written by a fellow party candidate, I think it is just you.

[Bakunin]

This is funny.

Charest and Dumont are attacking each other based on the quality of various candidates. The Liberals find an ADQ candidate who has decided to take a week vacation in Florida in the middle of the campaign.

Dumont answers that the candidate is a mother who promised to take her kids to Florida during the March break. Dumont finishes by saying that the ADQ is the "party of families".

Interrogé sur sa candidate dans la circonscription de Bonaventure, Karine Delarosbil, qui s'est envolée pour des vacances en Floride en pleine campagne électorale, Mario Dumont s'est montré particulièrement accommodant. Il juge que c'est tout à fait normal que cette mère de famille profite de la semaine de relâche avec ses enfants, d'autant plus qu'elle leur a promis ces vacances. Le chef adéquiste trouve même qu'il s'agit là d'une preuve que « l'ADQ est le parti de la famille. »

R-C

This is a good example of bad journalism.

Her husband recently died and she promised to her kid to go to florida to change their mind. IMO, this campain is way out of control...

[August1991]

IMO, this campain is way out of control...

Quebec politics are among the best on the continent if not the world. They are no-holds-barred yet they are civilized. All the nuance of language is used. Quebec politics are very competitive and Quebec has good politicians and I think that Quebec government is better as a result.

[Compare this with the situation in Alberta where people take little interest in politics and the same government has been in power for almost as long as Castro.]

With that said, this particular campaign is exceptional by Quebec standards and getting out of control. (The radio news tonight concerned whether a PQ candidate denied the Rwandan genocide. Go figure.) The debate on Tuesday has the potential to be nasty.

I'm also severely tired of the corrosive "national question". The p-word is not partition but rather polarization.

[August1991]

Argus would love this - I hope his federal governmmet French language lessons allow an understanding:

«Il faut encourager la natalité, sinon les ethnies vont nous envahir», a affirmé le candidat adéquiste dans Prévost, Christian Raymond.

Le candidat de l'ADQ a dit endosser complètement la politique de la famille de l'ADQ, et précisément le 5000 $ accordé aux parents pour leur troisième enfant.

Les différents cas d'accommodements raisonnables qui ont défrayé la manchette récemment ont fait réagir le candidat. «Les gens viennent ici et il faudrait qu'on les laisse porter le turban et embrasser l'asphalte. Ils crevaient de faim chez eux, ou ils étaient en guerre, on les laisse venir chez nous, alors il faut qu'ils respectent notre façon de vivre. S'ils ne veulent pas se conformer, qu'ils s'en retournent chez eux.»

Link

The Quebec election is a serious competition. Now, everyone is waiting for next week's debate.

IMV, there are two measures of a civilized society.

First, people generally pay taxes even if it is easy to avoid them.

Second, people generally don't know who will be the leader in the next few years.

According to both measures, Quebec (and the US) are civilized societies. (I can't say the same about Alberta.)

[Bakunin]

PLQ: 33%

PQ: 29%

ADQ:26%

The adq support seem strong so i guess a majority government become less likly.

[August1991]

PLQ: 33%

PQ: 29%

ADQ:26%

The adq support seem strong so i guess a majority government become less likly.

The PLQ and PQ can see Dumont in the rearview mirror.

Still two weeks to go and the debate on Tuesday.

[Charles Anthony]

Still two weeks to go and the debate on Tuesday.

I am considering renewing my television cable service.

Unlike hockey games, I doubt I will be able to find a bar in town that will be broadcasting the debate!

At least it will be on the radio but that will not be the same thing.

[jdobbin]

I am considering renewing my television cable service.

Unlike hockey games, I doubt I will be able to find a bar in town that will be broadcasting the debate!

At least it will be on the radio but that will not be the same thing.

Isn't the debate streamed on the Internet?

[August1991]

Well, that didn't last long:

...Dumont's workload became heavier Saturday as he dumped another candidate.

ADQ hopeful Christian Raymond was replaced in the riding of Prevost after making hostile comments about immigrants to a local newspaper.

Raymond told the newspaper Le Mirabel that Quebec needs to boost its birth rate, otherwise "ethnic groups will take over."

"People come here and we have to let them wear a turban and kiss the asphalt," Raymond said. "We let them come to our home, so they should respect the way we live. If they don't want to conform, they can go back to where they came from."

Dumont said he spent 14 years building the ADQ and "did not do this to bring this type of political thinking to the national assembly."

Martin Camirand has replaced Raymond, who was the second candidate unloaded by the ADQ this week.

On Thursday, Deux Montagnes candidate Jean-Francois Plante was replaced after making light of violence against women on an Internet podcast.

Liberal Leader Jean Charest, meanwhile, joked that the ADQ is the first party to run 127 candidates in Quebec's 125 ridings.

Link

Incidentally, Jef Plante was a poster to a French language Internet forum. I never saw that fact mentioned in the MSM. Academic now.

[Charles Anthony]

What the hell do the candidates want in this campaign??

Charest blindsided by his own mna

Health claims exaggerated: Paradis. Premier won't try to woo soft nationalists

Premier Jean Charest got blindsided by one of his own MNAs yesterday, when Pierre Paradis said he has been painting too glowing a picture of his government's performance on its No. 1 priority, improving Quebec's health care system.

Speaking to reporters during a campaign brunch in his own leader's home riding, Paradis said there has been some improvement - but nowhere near the extent that Charest has touted.

The Gazette

When asked by a reporter what he thought of Pierre Paradis, Jean Charest is reported to have just smiled.

In his shoes, I would have said "The show must go on!" and laughed it off.

Isn't the debate streamed on the Internet?

I want to see their lips move when they speak.

This is entertainment. [incidentally, Boisclair says that Quebeckers are electing a leader and not an actor. He is wrong.] I want to see their faces.

[Bakunin]

Pierre Paradis and Jean Charest have an history together, he's an ancient minister and runned for the liberal leadership campain. Charest did not give a place in his government.

[August1991]

It looks as if Dumont's debate gambit has hit the target. (I think Dumont has been well-advised by some professional, possibly American, campaign operatives.) The overpass story is like Bush Snr's 1988 Willy Horton drive-by of Dukakis.

Dumont dropped it in at a moment that would garner maximum shock exposure and attention (Anne Coulter-style). And it hit Charest and the PQ on their vulnerable point: their smug indifference to ordinary Quebecers and their endless, pointless debates about sovereignty/federalism. While they argue, bridges collapse.

Anyway, two days later, people are still talking about this, including Charest:

Charest denied yesterday his government shirked its responsibilities and said the public's safety is "not a partisan issue."

Yet the Liberals pulled out Transport Minister Michel Després to attack what he said was Dumont's manipulation of the information.

Dumont called for Després' resignation, while the transport minister said the whole incident shows the ADQ leader "lacks the maturity to govern Quebec."

"For the rest of his political life he'll be remembered for playing petty politics," Charest said of Dumont.

Toronto Star

For Charest to say this about Dumont (I heard it in French and there was exasperation in Charest's voice), Liberal internal polling probably shows how bad this is.

As to the PQ, Parizeau (and Boisclair) are now resorting to the hard core separatist vote:

«Je suis très fier de notre chef», a déclaré M. Parizeau devant une soixantaine de militants réunis à un cocktail de financement dans la circonscription de Bourget, dans l'est de Montréal, en début de soirée.

«Il a très bien fait ça hier soir, a-t-il ajouté. (...) Ce qui ressort dans les médias, ce n'est pas du tout la vraie dimension de l'homme. Là, on l'a vue hier. (...) En tout cas, il a l'étoffe de quelqu'un qui peut diriger le Québec.»

....

Ces compliments visaient toutefois à rappeler aux «progressistes» de ne pas oublier que ces initiatives «viennent» du PQ.

«Il est temps qu'on (le PQ) revienne au pouvoir», a résumé l'ancien chef péquiste.

...

M. Parizeau s'est également attardé aux indépendantistes qui songent à s'abstenir ou à voter pour un autre parti, soit parce qu'ils «n'osent pas» aller jusqu'au bout du chemin, soit parce qu'ils «n'aiment pas» le PQ à cause de décisions passées.

«Mais repensons-y, a-t-il exhorté. On est souverainistes. On veut faire la souveraineté du Québec. Le chemin passe par l'élection du Parti québécois.»

Link

It's ironic that Parizeau would refer to "progressives". I remember a time when Parizeau was considered on the right of the PQ. Well, any port in a storm. The PQ now reminds me of the NDP at the end of a federal campaign when they go after their core support with a dose of realism.

BTW, I heard the Parizeau comments on the radio too. Cocktail indeed. He sounded as if he was a little in his cups (again).

If Landry and Duceppe get involved (very likely) then we'll know for sure that this is an orchestrated attempt to save the furniture.

I still put it as a Liberal minority with PQ official opposition and ADQ with official status. Wild seat guess?

PLQ 58

PQ 47

ADQ 20

[Charles Anthony]

It looks as if Dumont's debate gambit has hit the target. (I think Dumont has been well-advised by some professional, possibly American, campaign operatives.) The overpass story is like Bush Snr's 1988 Willy Horton drive-by of Dukakis.

I hope his advisors can also tell him how to fix bridges.

Petty politics are forgotten (Charest is mistaken.) but if Perry Mason's party wins, they will be expected to fix the bridges. That would sweet.

[Canadian Blue]

How about the QS and Quebec Green party, is their any chance of those two parties winning a seat or two.

I'm kind of wondering if this will go the same way as the Edmonton municipal election, where the third place candidate vaulted to first place and became mayor within the span of a few weeks. Who knows, maybe we'll see an ADQ minority government, not likely, but it's a possibility.

[Bakunin]

QS and green party have no chance to get a seat.

Jean Charest campain is falling appart, the momentum has shifted, we can look at the media that where sure he would win the election and how well he managed to turn things in his favor in 2006-2007, now they are on his back saying how he look tired, how he lost the debate and now how evrything he does seem to be the wrong things to do.

Its hard to explain those things, its like you have the momentum and suddently out of nowhere you lose it, you know it, the others know it. And now evryone is looking at Charest saying how he lost the momentum. Well he's not the first, Paul martin lost it, Bernard landry lost it, Turner lost it and a lot of people did.

From now on, The ADQ and the PQ have as much chance to win the election if not more than the PLQ.

[August1991]

QS and green party have no chance to get a seat.

I agree. QS will get at most 3-4%, primarily around Montreal. The Greens will get the same spread across Quebec. Neither will get seats.

Incidentally, the way this election is going, QS and Greens may be seeing their small votes fall further.

Jean Charest campain is falling appart, the momentum has shifted, we can look at the media that where sure he would win the election and how well he managed to turn things in his favor in 2006-2007, now they are on his back saying how he look tired, how he lost the debate and now how evrything he does seem to be the wrong things to do.

Its hard to explain those things, its like you have the momentum and suddently out of nowhere you lose it, you know it, the others know it. And now evryone is looking at Charest saying how he lost the momentum. Well he's not the first, Paul martin lost it, Bernard landry lost it, Turner lost it and a lot of people did.

This is true, and as much a question of luck or fate.

This story is every politician's worst nightmare:

When Premier Jean Charest offered his hand to Richard Levesque, an employee at the ABB plant in Varennes, Levesque shook his head and kept his arms folded.

“I wake up in the night just to hate him,” Levesque, who used to vote Liberal, told reporters. He plans to vote this time for Maro Akoury, the Action democratique du Quebec candidate in south-shore Vachon riding.

...

Levesque then took the premier to task over his 2003 campaign promise of a $5-billion income tax cut.

“We have come 65 per cent of the way since we were elected,” Charest replied.

Since 2003, his government has cut taxes by $2.3 billion, while indexing has shaved another $1.5 billion from Quebecers’ tax bills. At the same time, other provinces have raised their taxes. narrowing the gap.

“We are going to reach the Canadian average,” Charest assured Levesque.

Levesque, 44, is a father of four. He told reporters he voted Liberal when Robert Bourassa was party leader, but won’t vote for Charest.

“He’s a liar,” he said, recalling Charest’s election promise to keep parents’ day-care payments at $5 a day. In fact the Liberals raised the daily fee by 40 per cent to $7.

Montreal Gazette

This is what Dumont tapped into with his viaduct remark during the debate. The exact content of the memo, the fact that Dumont broke the debate rules are beside the point.

Dumont touched on the perception that Charest (and Boisclair and the PQ) have other concerns than what ordinary people care about. While Charest and Boisclair pontificate, bridges collapse.

[August1991]

Leger Marketing poll, post debate, out tonight on TVA:

PQ: 30%

PLQ: 33%

ADQ: 30%

QS/Greens: 7%

Translated into seats (using the Hill + Knowlton model):

PQ: 49

PLQ: 43

ADQ: 33

----

This poll is going to be a shocker. It'll be all over the news tomorrow.

Now then, Stephen Harper has several big questions to resolve in the next few days. What kind of budget does he present on Tuesday?

[Bakunin]

New poll !!!

Leger marketing

PLQ: 33%

PQ: 30%

ADQ: 30%

At this point, anyone can win...