Quebec Election: 26 March 2007

[August1991]

I'd bet money on it.

Un indice de plus témoigne de la possibilité d’élections générales au Québec dans un avenir très rapproché. La direction du PLQ a annulé aujourd’hui le congrès du parti qui devait avoir lieu du 23 au 25 mars prochain. Il sera remplacé par un conseil général élargi qui aura lieu le samedi 17 février.

Selon un scénario probable, Jean Charest pourrait déclencher des élections, peu de temps après ce conseil, en vue d’un scrutin le 26 mars.

La Presse

The federal budget is scheduled to be tabled on 20 March, about one week before the vote.

[apollo19]

Any ideas about what the parties will run on? Will Charest go for the same style as last campaign where he was for public cuts, or will he go happy-happy? From what I can gather about Boisclair, he isn't too well liked by the unions, which could mean trouble in the PQ's base. Will Bouchard make any pitches for anyone?

[August1991]

Any ideas about what the parties will run on? Will Charest go for the same style as last campaign where he was for public cuts, or will he go happy-happy? From what I can gather about Boisclair, he isn't too well liked by the unions, which could mean trouble in the PQ's base. Will Bouchard make any pitches for anyone?

I would expect teh Liberals to run the "uncampaign". They were elected to "re-engineer the State" and cut taxes and they basically have done neither. School reform is a mess but Couillard is reassuring in health and the government talks a good talk on the environment. In short, Charest has no reason to be re-elected but then no reason to be kicked out.

All of this is neither here nor there and Charest can easily explain away his promises. Nobody really wants to hear about "re-enineering the State".

The real story will be the PQ and specifically how les purs et durs insist that Boisclair talk about independence and his promise to hold a referendum in his first mandate. In addition, there'll be talk about whether Boisclair can be the person to take Quebec into the promised land. And talk about Boisclair's proposals for the economy of a new Quebec and so on and so forth. This campaign will be about Boisclair. But Boisclair won't win.

There's a back beat to Quebec politics now: it's the divide between Montreal and the rest of Quebec (RduQ?). Harper's Tories have benefitted from it and so has the ADQ (at least in the polls). The movie L'Illusion tranquille is another indication and also Hérouxville. This arc is somehow supplanting (if that's possible) la question nationale.

Speaking of Harper, he has said on several occasions that a federalist government in Quebec deserves support in Ottawa. I'm sure the federal budget will help Charest. Surprising as it may seem but Charest is perceived as the one most likely to defend Quebec's interests.

Lastly, there's an old expression: bleu à Ottawa, rouge à Québec.

[Bakunin]

I think it will be an interesting campain because anything could happend, we don't know who will win, the PLQ the ADQ or the PQ.

August made some interesting comment:

In short, Charest has no reason to be re-elected but then no reason to be kicked out.

I see 3 possible scenario:

1st) The ADQ get more vote than expected specially in the same region where the conservative won, the PQ do bad, the adq win a minority/majority government.

2nd) The undecided vote goes back to the PQ and the ADQ get less vote than expected, the PQ win a minority,majority government even if they have 2-3% less than the PLQ in the overall vote (Because some county vote liberal at more than 90%).

3rd) The ADQ get less vote than expected and the PQ get less vote than expected. The PLQ win a minority/majority government.

I have the feeling it won't be the 3rd because the only reason the PLQ won last election was people choose at the last minute to get rid of the PQ. I feel like the PLQ will have a hard time getting more supporter than they already have unless the PQ and the ADQ do really bad because at the moment they may not have enough vote to win a minority government even if they do have more % than other party. The ADQ and the PQ are big question mark, i beleive the PQ is at his lowest right now, if they get less vote then they will collapse before the election and the ADQ will get the support and win the election. However its possible that the ADQ get more liberal county than PQ county, its hard to know, at the last federal election the Bloc lost less county than the liberals, was it because of the conservative vote ?

[Bakunin]

Ill put the polls during the campain on the web if it interest anyone.

First of all, there are 2 polls that are most of the time accurate, Crop and Leger marketing.

the first official one from crop:

PLQ: 35%

PQ: 32%

ADQ 18%

According to Claude Gauthier "work at Crop", the PQ would win (didn't say if it was a minority or majority), last poll i saw they said that too and i think it was a majority by 1 seats... So it could very well be majority or minority.

Its very interesting because, at first sight we would think the PLQ is most likly to win, in fact in the poll they say 61% of the people think the PLQ will win. But it is because the liberal vote is very high in some county, in fact i think in 1998 the PQ won a majority government and had 1% less than the PLQ.

About sovreignty, they say 48% would say "yes" if there was a referendum.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070221...88/CPACTUALITES

[Bakunin]

double post

[August1991]

PLQ: 35%

PQ: 32%

ADQ 18%

In the 2003 election, the popular vote results were:

PLQ: 46%

PQ: 33%

ADQ: 18%

UFP: 1%

I don't think the PQ will change much but the ADQ will go up while the PLQ will go down. In effect, the PLQ will bleed support to the PQ and the PQ will bleed support to teh ADQ.

In some ridings, this will mean that the PLQ candidate will win with a smaller plurality. So, the overall seat totals will be the same as 2003 - perhaps a few more ADQ elected - but with a smaller PLQ popular vote.

Of course, this depends on how the campaign goes and in particular, how Boisclair manages. He could do well but I'm inclined to think that if he starts to breakthrough and become a frontrunner, his past will come back to haunt him.

Boisclair is simply too urban, too Montreal. Too many in the PQ don't like him. In that sense, the PQ has a ready excuse for its failure: it's not that sovereignty is unpopular; it's that Boisclair was not the right leader. Having tried a "young, right wing" leader, God knows who they'll choose next. Maybe Marois will come back.

Another possibility is for Dumont to supplant the PQ in rural areas. That will happen to a degree but nothing major. I give the ADQ about 6-7 seats overall. No major breakthrough unless Dumont gets lucky during the campaign.

[Bakunin]

http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/

PQ : 61 seats

PLQ : 51 seats

ADQ: 13 seats

a minority government by 3 seats.

[August1991]

http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/

PQ : 61 seats

PLQ : 51 seats

ADQ: 13 seats

a minority government by 3 seats.

That website's prediction is misleading since it is based on an average of recent polls and then used for simple seat projections.

The ADQ has the potential to be a spoiler in this election. I think it will take more votes from the PQ than the PLQ. The effect will be PLQ seats won with 40% of the vote or less.

Let's see how the campaign unrolls though. People are just starting to turn their attention to it.

[Canuck E Stan]

Let's see how the campaign unrolls though. People are just starting to turn their attention to it.

Is Charest's condemnation and mocking of the PQ's "referendum" word change going to work?

It seems positive for him in the media.

[Charles Anthony]

There is a reason to kick out Charest: he is old and fat. He is competing against two young slick kids. I know that sounds stupid and shallow, but it is true.

I have had just a fleeting exposure to the campaigns so far. The first thing that stood out to me is that there is absolutely no substance to this election. The parties unveiled their slogans and they all sounded stupid. [The Liberals are even making sure that their re-hashed slogan is in such small print that nobody can read it on their posters!] I believe this campaign will be based on appearances only.

The only question is who is more attractive: Andre Boisclair or Mario Dumont? I say Dumont.

Boisclair looks too much like he belongs in an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

Dumont could pass off as a Perry Mason.

[Canuck E Stan]

There is a reason to kick out Charest: he is old and fat. He is competing against two young slick kids. I know that sounds stupid and shallow, but it is true.

The only question is who is more attractive: Andre Boisclair or Mario Dumont? I say Dumont.

Boisclair looks too much like he belongs in an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

Dumont could pass off as a Perry Mason.

Old and fat......more attractive? Is this just you, or is this what the important issues of Quebec amounts to? Being old and fat?

[Bakunin]

http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/

PQ : 61 seats

PLQ : 51 seats

ADQ: 13 seats

a minority government by 3 seats.

That website's prediction is misleading since it is based on an average of recent polls and then used for simple seat projections.

The ADQ has the potential to be a spoiler in this election. I think it will take more votes from the PQ than the PLQ. The effect will be PLQ seats won with 40% of the vote or less.

Let's see how the campaign unrolls though. People are just starting to turn their attention to it.

Its so hard to tell, i think the recent drop of the PQ went to the adq and i beleive the PQ is more at risk if the ADQ go up but there are other things to consider. I don't think that QS and the green party will do as good as we see them in the poll. I beleive the vote they lose will most likly go to the PQ if they make a good campain. I beleive we will see a repetition of the 2003 campain, after the debate, in the last week people will really decide what they want. Another question, will the ADQ suffer yet again when people come down to the poll ? it is a possibility. Or if Dumont get in front of Boisclair, the pq could collapse.

[Charles Anthony]

I beleive we will see a repetition of the 2003 campain, after the debate, in the last week people will really decide what they want.

Seriously, do you not find it supremely odd that a tax-payer above the age of 18 years does NOT know what he really wants from a politician except for during the last week of an election campaign? For the life of me, I can not believe that to be true.

If I am wrong, Quebec democracy needs a new fashion consultant. Anyone who can approach the campaign with an ounce of creativity -- maybe tell a joke (dare I say: tell it like it is) during the debates -- will win the election.

Is this just you, or is this what the important issues of Quebec amounts to? Being old and fat?

It might just be me. However, like I said: I can not see any substance behind this election. Can you?

[Bakunin]

Leger Marketing

PLQ: 34%

PQ: 26%

ADQ: 22%

QS: 6%

PV: 5%

The adq is clearly going up. However like i said, i beleive that during the last week of the election, people will truly decide what to do, they may decide to get rid of the PLQ wich is stuck at 34%. Then either the PQ or the ADQ would lost substancial support.

[August1991]

PLQ: 34%

PQ: 26%

ADQ: 22%

QS: 6%

PV: 5%

There's no doubt the third parties will do well in this election: ADQ, Parti vert and Quebec solidaire.

The last two will not elect anyone and QS is solely a Montreal phenomenon. But they will draw votes away from the PQ more than the PLQ. In theory, in a five way race, a party could form a majority with 21% of the popular vote.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to a (rogue) poll showing the ADQ ahead of the PQ!

It seems that in modern democracies, the trick is to keep the "coalition" together.

[August1991]

It's still early but this is not looking good for Boisclair. Kim Campbell not good? No, more like John Turner not good.

Anyone who believes that this is the end of the mouvement souverainiste is mistaken.

[geoffrey]

Anyone who believes that this is the end of the mouvement souverainiste is mistaken.

Is it the end of the mouvement separatiste though? Will the ADQ gain enough support from the soft nationalists for Quebecois to choose to be a part of Canada??? On their own terms of course.

Sovereignty can mean any number of things, and arguably Quebec could be sovereign and still a part of Canada (not that I think that is the best solution).

[Bakunin]

Well if we look at the polls, the soverignty is at 48% wich is quite high because a few years ago it was stuck at 45%, however if you remember the federal election, well the same thing is happenning, the quebec city region is being taken over by the ADQ, it will be an adq vs plq battle. I don't see how the PQ could stop the bleeding, imo, at this point the lower the PQ does in that region the better it is for them because it mean the PLQ won't win in that region, then its almost certain there will be a minority government and any party could win it.

The ADQ voted yes in 1995, as of now, nobody knows where mario dumont stands exactly, he keep saying he is not federalist or sovreignist, he call himself an autonomist and want to limit federal spending, create a quebec constitution, rename quebec for "Autonomous states of Quebec" and rappatriate federal power like taxe perception and etc... However most quebecker realise that what he wants couldn't be accepted by the federal government and it would most likly be the status quo.

[Charles Anthony]

The ADQ voted yes in 1995, as of now, nobody knows where mario dumont stands exactly,

I know exactly where he stands: he wants power. Point final.

Just say anything on the campaign trail that will make the electorate happy!

Dumont proposes ombudsman for young

But Youth Protection Minister Delisle says he doesn't know what he's talking about

Mario Dumont stepped out of his comfort zone yesterday as champion of the middle classes and small business, visiting a drop-in centre for homeless youth where he proposed the naming of a youth ombudsman, with broad powers to intervene in cases of child abuse.

The Gazette

Does they ADQ really have a plan to govern a province? or is this a "worry about that when we get there" game?

It really does not look good for a leader to announce grand plans without informing his underlings.

[August1991]

Well if we look at the polls, the soverignty is at 48% wich is quite high because a few years ago it was stuck at 45%, however if you remember the federal election, well the same thing is happenning, the quebec city region is being taken over by the ADQ, it will be an adq vs plq battle. I don't see how the PQ could stop the bleeding, imo, at this point the lower the PQ does in that region the better it is for them because it mean the PLQ won't win in that region, then its almost certain there will be a minority government and any party could win it.

The 50% support for sovereignty usually involves a question of a "sovereign Quebec and an economic and political partnership with Canada". This is a sensible position and is feasible. At the moment, neither the PQ nor the PLQ want to ask such a question in a referendum and neither would know how to go about negotiating such an agreement with Canada.

I agree Bakunin that a minority government is increasingly likely. It will depend how well the ADQ (particularly in the region of Quebec City) and how poorly the PQ does.

This article is very interesting, for Quebecers and non-Quebecers alike:

Daniel Tremblay pointe le journaliste avec sa fourchette : le Québec doit devenir souverain au plus vite, tonne-t-il. Même si ça signifie quelques années de souffrance, même si ça signifie une révolution.

M. Tremblay est du genre souverainiste radical, voyez-vous. Pourtant, le 26 mars, il ne votera pas PQ. «J'aime pas le boss», fait-il en retournant à sa tarte aux pommes.

Nous sommes au restaurant Lucerne, mardi midi, rue Bagot, à La Baie. Et M. Tremblay, 58 ans, barbe en laine d'acier et chapeau de cuir, explique avec bien des cri… et des tabarn… son souverain dégoût pour André Boisclair, en terminant son dîner, flanqué de son épouse, Francine.

«Si je vote, ce sera pas pour le PQ. Je veux que le chef se fasse déboîter

- Mais vous êtes souverainiste, non?

- J'ai ma carte du PQ, fait-il en montrant la poche de son pantalon.

Daniel Tremblay est un pur et dur au pays des purs et durs de la souveraineté. Les cinq circonscriptions de la région ont voté à 69 % pour le OUI, en 1995. Mais la tiédeur de M. Tremblay est à la fois symbolique et symptomatique : l'histoire d'amour entre les partis souverainistes et les électeurs du Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean s'est refroidie depuis quelques années. Depuis 2003, en fait, quand Jean Charest a fait élire ici deux députés libéraux et que les gargantuesques majorités péquistes ont considérablement rétréci. Puis, l'an dernier, le conservateur Jean-Pierre Blackburn a été élu au fédéral.

La Presse

That's good journalism.

[Bakunin]

http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/

PLQ: 56

PQ: 51

ADQ: 18

[Bakunin]

Leger marketing

PLQ: 36% +2%

PQ: 29% +3%

ADQ: 25% +3%

Only 4% between the adq and the pq.

[August1991]

Boisclair raised the issue himself today without being asked.

When and where?

As I undertsand it, Boisclair went yesterday to Laval University (very sympathetic group) and then in effect raised the question in response to an interview that occurred almost two weeks ago.

It's a sign of how much panic there is in PQ circles.

In Liberal circles too. Now Charest is bringing out the s-word and accusing Dumont of being a "separatist":

Les fédéralistes ne peuvent pas faire confiance à Mario Dumont, un politicien qui s'est rangé du côté des "séparatistes" chaque fois qu'il en a eu l'occasion, a fait valoir, vendredi, le chef libéral Jean Charest.

Pour étayer ses propos, M. Charest a cité les épisodes référendaires de 1992 et 1995 où, dans les deux cas, le chef de l'Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) a choisi de faire campagne aux côtés des souverainistes.

"Dans les moments critiques, comme en 1992 à 1995, M. Dumont s'est toujours rangé du côté des séparatistes", a lancé, en anglais, le chef libéral devant plus de 800 invités de la Chambre de commerce italienne au Canada, où figurait tout le gratin économique de la métropole.

Link

This is both pathetic and funny.

Meanwhile, Boisclair is saying that another referendum failure would not be the end. We could have a fourth or a fifth...

While visiting a Quebec City high school, Boisclair said there is no limit to the number of referendums that could be called if the separatists were to lose a third vote on making Quebec an independent country.

“I’ll never declare that an idea is dead,” he said.

Montreal Gazette

[This is really desperate because Boisclair is signalling traditional PQ voters many of whom fear that Boisclair would just lose a referendum and that would be the end of the dream.]

----

This is turning into a strange election. It reminds me of Mulroney's 1984 victory in Quebec. People suddenly decided to take the plunge and vote for him.

Quebec could wake up to be in the same situation as Ontario was when Bob Rae became premier.

There must be immense pressure on Dumont now. If this continues, he will be the guy to beat in the TV debates. Dumont is at his fourth election campaign and he's no fool.

[August1991]

CA, it was in a radio interview in Quebec City, not at Laval University.

Plus tôt, lors d'une entrevue radiophonique, sur les ondes de la radio CHOI de Québec, et sans qu'aucune question ne lui soit posée sur le sujet, M. Boisclair s'était dit préoccupé par le taux élevé de suicides chez les jeunes hommes homosexuels, qui est "beaucoup plus élevé que la moyenne québécoise".

"Je sais les Québécois épris d'égalité, épris de liberté. S'il y a des gens qui veulent amener la campagne électorale sur cette question, ce n'est pas moi qu'ils vont rencontrer, ce sont des millions de Québécois qui souhaitent plus d'égalité et plus de justice. Je rêve de ce monde où il y a moins de discrimination, moins de racisme, moins d'homophobie", a déclaré M. Boisclair, avec une pointe d'émotivité dans la voix, lorsqu'il a été interrogé à savoir si ce genre de commentaires aurait un impact sur la campagne péquiste.

Il a dit juger "particulièrement insultante" pour les travailleurs du Saguenay la déclaration de M. Champagne, qui a insinué, lors d'une entrevue avec M. Gaudreault, sur les ondes de CKRS, le 19 février, que les employés des usines "d'Alcan et de Price" hésiteraient à voter pour lui parce qu'il est homosexuel, tout comme son chef, M. Boisclair.

Matinternet