No Election in Spring 2007

[August1991]

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said yesterday he does not want an election within the next few months, although he acknowledged he is preparing for one as he introduced a new parliamentary team that will take him into the next campaign.

"I don't want an election," he said at a news conference. "I don't think Canadians want an election . . but I don't control it. There are many scenarios where we may be in an election in the next two months, or in the next two years. Who knows? So our duty is to be ready for an election. My preference is to not have an election in the coming weeks or months."

Mr. Dion suggested the Liberals may even support the next Conservative budget, expected March 20, so as not to defeat the minority government and force a third trip to the polls in three years.

G & M

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

[scribblet]

I hope so, but if there is, guess who's fault it will be. You got it, as the article said; It will be Harper's fault putting them in the position of having to force the election. Talk about Chutzpah!

[jdobbin]

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

No one is going to say they are going to force an election. They will say that the other side forced an election. And the fact is that a forced election is possible. All the government has to do is put something in the budget that all three opposition parties can't agree on. Likewise, if the opposition defeats another environmental bill, the government could say the opposition won't work with it so they need to go to the polls.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

Yeah, I could see waiting until 2008.

If Harper doesn't go right after the next budget he has no real advantage waiting until the fall.

Wait for the '08 budget maybe...

That is definitely longer than the averae minority Government in Canada.

[tml12]

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

Yeah, I could see waiting until 2008.

If Harper doesn't go right after the next budget he has no real advantage waiting until the fall.

Wait for the '08 budget maybe...

That is definitely longer than the averae minority Government in Canada.

I do not want a fall election...ideally, I'd like to see a spring 2008 election with at least a partial solution to the fiscal imbalance as well as a Harper environmental plan.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

I'd be inclined to agree with you. Dion is still too new as party leader to jump right into the PMO. As long as the PCs play it safe, there shouldn't really be a reason for an election call from anywhere. Provided, of course, Layton doesn't try to grandstand on an issue, or some weird gaffe transpires from one of the parties.

[mikedavid00]

Wait for the '08 budget maybe...

Remember that they have to get Harper while he's down. If we have a terrorist attack it will most likely work in favor of the CPC.

I think that if the polls lean anymore in favor to Dion, he'll try call an election to atleast gain seats.

He's living in a dream world though because he'll never win an election.

I have to say, there's a dark cloud over Harper now. When the media reports that Harper is down in the polls, people equate it to that he must be doing something wrong. Then there's the CBC non stop Liberal campaign which is also effecting opinion. The economy might head for a downturn which will also cause Harper to suffer.

I wouldn't discount an election this year and am a bit concerned over the voters supporting a party when it didn't even have a leader.

There's something wrong in our country.. and I feel all the fingers point to the CBC becuase it's borderline irrational thinking.

The CBC, and Liberals are like Islam, they both denounce independant thought and dictate.

[August1991]

No one is going to say they are going to force an election. They will say that the other side forced an election. And the fact is that a forced election is possible. All the government has to do is put something in the budget that all three opposition parties can't agree on. Likewise, if the opposition defeats another environmental bill, the government could say the opposition won't work with it so they need to go to the polls.

That's obvious but in this case, someone is going to blink first.

Every day Harper is PM brings him closer to a majority because each day, he convinces more voters that he can be PM. The major criticsm against Harper in the past election was that he was a scary guy who would put guns in our streets and make us into the 51st state or something. Harper was a doctrinaire autocrat who can't get along with people.

By staying in power with a minority government, Harper is proving to everybody the opposite.

From Harper's perspective, the downside is that every day Dion is in opposition puts more distance between the "new" Liberal Party and the sponsorship scandal. It gives Dion another day to put a new face on the Liberals and present them as a reformed party.

In this calculation, I think Harper has the advantage to go longer. Adscam will come back to haunt the Liberals whether it's this year or next year or the year after. Dion can't reform the Liberal Party.

In the 1960s, Liberal minority governments survived for well over two years. I'd say Harper will match that at least.

[Canadian Blue]

I don't think Canadian's want an election, and so far it doesn't seem like average Canadian's are wanting a change in government. So far the polls show both the Liberal and Conservative party neck and neck, and in all honesty a minority government is better for the country than a majority, since it usually seem's that for a minority to work you need to compromise more often, something which is not common with a majority government.

[madmax]

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

Yeah, I could see waiting until 2008.

Finally people in these forums willing to give me a break from going to the polls again. I haven't seen so much 2008 comments in a while. I do agree with some of the other posters here as well, that Canadians aren't in a rush to go to the polls. I also think the longer Harper can go the better it will be for the CPC in the long run.

[jdobbin]

From Harper's perspective, the downside is that every day Dion is in opposition puts more distance between the "new" Liberal Party and the sponsorship scandal. It gives Dion another day to put a new face on the Liberals and present them as a reformed party.

In this calculation, I think Harper has the advantage to go longer. Adscam will come back to haunt the Liberals whether it's this year or next year or the year after. Dion can't reform the Liberal Party.

You're contradicting yourself here with Dion will present a reformed party and that Dion can't reform the Liberal party. I don't think you know.

Aside from one Sun article on possible continuing sponsorship investigations, I have not heard any other news. And even so, I don't know that it will impact Dion the way it did Martin. After 13 years of Liberal rule, it was barely enough to defeat Martin. Dion has the opportunity to bring in new people. Several veteran Liberals have left or are going to leave.

Moreover, Dion will be able to cross examine Harper on the Tory record in government and not constantly be on the defense about the Liberal one.

I have no idea who will trigger the next election. I think it will be the NDP because they are losing supporters just by propping up the Tories.

[jdobbin]

I don't think Canadian's want an election, and so far it doesn't seem like average Canadian's are wanting a change in government. So far the polls show both the Liberal and Conservative party neck and neck, and in all honesty a minority government is better for the country than a majority, since it usually seem's that for a minority to work you need to compromise more often, something which is not common with a majority government.

Canadians weren't in a rush to go to an election a year ago either. If the right issue comes along, things can change fast.

[madmax]

[The CBC, and Liberals are like Islam, they both denounce independant thought and dictate.

I think.....

The CTV network is like Christianity

Global TV is like Judiasm

TVO is like Hinduism

CityTV is like Buddism

MikeDavid00 is like Raelin Movement

[August1991]

You're contradicting yourself here with Dion will present a reformed party and that Dion can't reform the Liberal party. I don't think you know.

I meant that Dion may attempt to put a new face on the Liberal Party. He can't reform it. (See below.)

Aside from one Sun article on possible continuing sponsorship investigations, I have not heard any other news. And even so, I don't know that it will impact Dion the way it did Martin. After 13 years of Liberal rule, it was barely enough to defeat Martin. Dion has the opportunity to bring in new people. Several veteran Liberals have left or are going to leave.

I think the sponsorship scandal will come back to haunt the Liberals (but I'll admit that I could be wrong). Why can it come back? Because of the money, and the brazen way it was taken. Brazen people who take money attract attention (the basis of many Hollywood scripts).

Anecdote: I overheard recently some federalists in Montreal discussing Jean Brault and I was surprise how much he's still persona non grata. The federal Liberal Party has serious issues.

IMV, it wouldn't take much, a new unpublished detail, to put sponsorship back on the front pages and Dion would have to answer All Those Questions, just like PM PM had to.

The Liberals chose Dion because they thought they could have their cake and eat it too. Dion would be new, but he'd also be the same Liberal Party. Dion, although an outsider, is too tied to the Old Liberals. In short, the Liberals don't really want to reform. They just want to put things back the way they were.

Lastly, Dion lacks the force of character to overcome this. Dion's leadership victory was a victory by default, like Joe Clark's. Dion is no Duplessis or Trudeau. (Could be wrong on that one too.)

[Catchme]

The way Harper is throwing around money in BC, on the very same programs Martin did, except of course the 2 mill for Stanley Park, we may be gearing up for one sooner than ya all think.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Finally people in these forums willing to give me a break from going to the polls again. I haven't seen so much 2008 comments in a while. I do agree with some of the other posters here as well, that Canadians aren't in a rush to go to the polls. I also think the longer Harper can go the better it will be for the CPC in the long run.

There are two minds on the timing of the next election.

If Harper wanted to pull a Chretien and have an election before the new leader could get his sh*t together then we will go in the spring.

My gut feeling is that Harper will want to hold onto the job for as long as possible.

A year and seven months is the average length of time for a minority government in Canada. I definitley think he will surpass it.

[jdobbin]

I meant that Dion may attempt to put a new face on the Liberal Party. He can't reform it. (See below.)

I think the sponsorship scandal will come back to haunt the Liberals (but I'll admit that I could be wrong). Why can it come back? Because of the money, and the brazen way it was taken. Brazen people who take money attract attention (the basis of many Hollywood scripts).

Anecdote: I overheard recently some federalists in Montreal discussing Jean Brault and I was surprise how much he's still persona non grata. The federal Liberal Party has serious issues.

IMV, it wouldn't take much, a new unpublished detail, to put sponsorship back on the front pages and Dion would have to answer All Those Questions, just like PM PM had to.

The Liberals chose Dion because they thought they could have their cake and eat it too. Dion would be new, but he'd also be the same Liberal Party. Dion, although an outsider, is too tied to the Old Liberals. In short, the Liberals don't really want to reform. They just want to put things back the way they were.

Lastly, Dion lacks the force of character to overcome this. Dion's leadership victory was a victory by default, like Joe Clark's. Dion is no Duplessis or Trudeau. (Could be wrong on that one too.)

Certainly something further could come the RCMP. I still am waiting to hear what the Goodale thing was about during the election. The overnight drop from that announcement was 10 points in the polls. And the result? Nothing. I have no idea if they have dropped the investigation. The RCMP usually doesn't comment on investigations. Why did they comment during the last election? You got me there.

Dion has managed to keep himself and his party in the news (and not just on CBC) by making a series of announcements on policy, Liberal shadow cabinet appointments, fundraising and the like. He may have won by default but he has brought in all his competitors under one tent with the goal of real opposition and readiness for an election.

The Tories have not polled as high since the election. They are weak in areas they need to win to gain more seats. If the strategy is to campaign against the Liberals based on their record under Martin, I'm not sure it will be successful. If they are hoping for the Liberals to self-destruct like they did in the last election, I think it is wishful thinking. The competing forces of Martin and Chretien tripping each other up are now gone. At the moment, I don't see Ignatieff trying to undermine Dion.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Tories have not polled as high since the election. They are weak in areas they need to win to gain more seats. If the strategy is to campaign against the Liberals based on their record under Martin, I'm not sure it will be successful. If they are hoping for the Liberals to self-destruct like they did in the last election, I think it is wishful thinking. The competing forces of Martin and Chretien tripping each other up are now gone. At the moment, I don't see Ignatieff trying to undermine Dion.

The Conservatives have really started focusing on the environment.

Doesn't seem like their plan is to campaign against the Martin record.

Seems like they will campaign on their own record.

[Remiel]

Come on, I don't believe you can be a political junkie and not have at least a little part of yourself that wants the elections to keep on coming. It's like having a taste for blood.

[August1991]

My gut feeling is that Harper will want to hold onto the job for as long as possible.

The Liberals, Paul Martin, Jack Layton, the CBC all said that if Stephen Harper got into power, it would be the end of Canada.

Every day that Stephen Harper is a decent, honest Prime Minister of a united, civilized Canada is proof that all the Liberal/NDP claims were false. Harper knew long ago that if English Canadians got to see him as PM, they'd like him. (He apparently likes the job too.)

Certainly something further could come the RCMP. I still am waiting to hear what the Goodale thing was about during the election. The overnight drop from that announcement was 10 points in the polls. And the result? Nothing. I have no idea if they have dropped the investigation. The RCMP usually doesn't comment on investigations. Why did they comment during the last election? You got me there.

Another story of an envelope of cash across a restaurant table would make a headline.

Chances are that it will happen. And then what will Dion say?

Watergate ended in the US because Ford pardoned Nixon. Could PM Dion pardon Chretien?

He may have won by default but he has brought in all his competitors under one tent with the goal of real opposition and readiness for an election.

Stalin did the same after Lenin's death. IMV, if Dion can consolidate power and really clean the Liberal Party, then maybe he'll be PM. Dion is no Stalin but he might be a Duplessis.

The Tories have not polled as high since the election. They are weak in areas they need to win to gain more seats. If the strategy is to campaign against the Liberals based on their record under Martin, I'm not sure it will be successful. If they are hoping for the Liberals to self-destruct like they did in the last election, I think it is wishful thinking.

The Liberals did not self-destruct in the last election. (The Liberals self-destructed in 1984.)

If Canada is lucky, Harper is Mulroney Part II. IOW, a Harper Conservative majority would mean that Canada has two legitimate national parties that cross linguistic lines. Only Part II? Well, Harper is a WASP whereas Mulroney was a Catholic.

Stephen Harper is Canada's first French-speaking Protestant Conservative Prime Minister.

Laurier and Trudeau would be proud.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Come on, I don't believe you can be a political junkie and not have at least a little part of yourself that wants the elections to keep on coming. It's like having a taste for blood.

As an Alberta political junkie it has just been a little too much for me. Between the Federal election last January, nominations, and the Provincial leadership. I'm really a little burned out at the moment.

I think a good year or so of political quiet time while help re-charge the batteries.

2008 could be crazy here if we have both a Provincial and a Federal election. At this point, it looks like both will happen next year.

[geoffrey]

Dion has managed to keep himself and his party in the news (and not just on CBC) by making a series of announcements on policy, Liberal shadow cabinet appointments, fundraising and the like.

Not how you defeat an incumbant government. Government's lose elections in Canada, you can't win one. Dion has to run at least slightly negative to win.

[mcqueen625]

I'd be willing to bet that this government will celebrate at least two anniversaries before we have an election.

Yeah, I could see waiting until 2008.

If Harper doesn't go right after the next budget he has no real advantage waiting until the fall.

Wait for the '08 budget maybe...

That is definitely longer than the average minority Government in Canada.

Polls are just that polls, and the only true poll is the one where the people actually get to vote. All the rest are partisan in nature, meant to bolster the party conducting the poll of those they support. Many of the recent polls are conducted by Liberal friendly media sources, the same sources who conducted the polls before the last election, and gee they showed that the Liberals were going to win. Unfortunately for the Liberal friendly media their predictions were wrong, and the people saw through their attempt to manipulate the election results.

I predict that many people like what the Conservatives have to offer, because after the latest leadership convention where the Liberal chose Dion to be their leader, it shows quite strikingly that the Liberals have learned nothing from the electorate and they are simply carrying on with the same old, same old, and the funny thing is it is with the same has-beens. The only peopel left behind are Martin and the Cretin. Dion is no better since he was involved in the shenanigance of sponsorship, HRDC, and the failed gun registry to name just a few blunders, besides the fact that he can't even speak English. The LIberals seem to feel for whatever reason that the National leader has to be from Quebec, and I have to wonder why since they represent one language and not the language of the majority of Canadians, nor the language that the majority wants to speak.

[margrace]

Well Mr Harper is learning something and our minority government is working. The home renovations program which Mr. Harper cancelled and hurt a lot of people in our area apprears to be reinstated. Great news for poorer home owners whose windows for instance need replacing. We can just keep up the pressure and we might get some good government out of this situation. Aye

[jdobbin]

Not how you defeat an incumbant government. Government's lose elections in Canada, you can't win one. Dion has to run at least slightly negative to win.

At the moment, the polls seem to indicate that the Tories can't win a majority next election. All Dion is doing right now is doing what the Official Opposition is mandated to do: critique the government. As leader of the Liberals, he is preparing for an election that could come as early as the end of March. As far as the campaign goes, we'll see what happens.

Can Harper lose this election? He most certainly can. The Liberals are hardly in disarray going into it.