The Achilles' Heel of the Federal Liberals

mikedavid00 · December 20, 2006

Harper keeps his promises? What about the healthcare wait times? That was one of the top five promises he made. What about the income trust promises in the election?

Health care wait times. He's not speaking up about that because he knows he can't do anything about it.

And income trusts I do support their discision on that and understand why they did it.

August1991 · December 20, 2006

The 'perception hurdle' that the Libs will face in the next election will be a unique challenge for them. None of us - outside Alberta- are used to politicians that actually state what they intend, then do what they said they would do after the election.

I think this is getting closer to what I mean - although the story isn't Harper, it's the Liberals.

Look, the standard line is that politicians are liars. I'm suggesting that the federal Liberals have gone just too far, too often down that road. It doesn't work anymore. Maybe it's technology that has changed. Or maybe disinterested people no longer vote.

The federal Liberals are capable of creating a good sound & light show but the sizzle no longer sells the steak. They're like General Motors in the 1970s convinced that declining sales are just a marketing problem.

----

As to the NDP, I agree with Bob Rae's idea that the NDP is primarily a party of protest. NDP types (outside of Saskatchewan) don't want power; they view themselves as outsiders who want to criticize. The federal NDP seat numbers will bounce around so it's false to speak of "disaster".

OTOH, it's true the Liberals (under Dion) will face ideological competition from the NDP in English Canada and from the Bloc in Quebec. With a united right, the Tories have the right to themselves across Canada.

I have argued that regionalism motivates Canadian politics not ideology. I still think that's true but Harper has been adept at respecting regionalisms.

All of this doesn't change my more basic point: many people simply don't believe the federal Liberals anymore. It's like Gloria Gaynor who has heard too many excuses and finally tells the guy to leave. These people won't vote Tory, NDP or BQ; they just won't vote. The Liberals' inability to raise individual donations is a telling sign.

The Liberal party has been written off so many times before. There is one reason it keeps coming back and that is because Canadians are centrists at heart and that is where the Liberals straddle.

I know and agree. But then Eaton's seemed a permanent Canadian institution too.

The Liberals might fall back on those old lines of the "radical middle" or "NDP are Liberals in a hurry" but ideology isn't the question. Too many otherwise Liberal voters simply do not believe what a federal Liberal politician says. Dingwall, Volpe, Chretien, Trudeau and so on and so forth. Maybe it's demographics. Voters have been there, seen that. There are no new voters arriving to excite with the message.

Many in the Liberal Party itself, from Trudeau Jnr to Tom Axworthy, have said the party needs fixing. The choice of Dion won't do that but my idea of the problem is graver.

But Dobbin, I'm willing to admit that I may be fabulating.

jdobbin · December 20, 2006

The Liberals' inability to raise individual donations is a telling sign.
I know and agree. But then Eaton's seemed a permanent Canadian institution too.

The Liberals might fall back on those old lines of the "radical middle" or "NDP are Liberals in a hurry" but ideology isn't the question. Too many otherwise Liberal voters simply do not believe what a federal Liberal politician says. Dingwall, Volpe, Chretien, Trudeau and so on and so forth. Maybe it's demographics. Voters have been there, seen that. There are no new voters arriving to excite with the message.

Many in the Liberal Party itself, from Trudeau Jnr to Tom Axworthy, have said the party needs fixing. The choice of Dion won't do that but my idea of the problem is graver.

But Dobbin, I'm willing to admit that I may be fabulating.

The Liberals have fast and furiously sold out fundraisers on Tuesday for $250 and $500 a plate dinners. Bay Street seemed anxious to meet Dion and McKenna and Ed Clark were willing to help foot the bill. There will be further fundraisers in Montreal, Halifax, St. John's, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg from now till March.

The Liberals will be back because they always bring new people into the mix. Dion can now find three new Liberals to run in Montreal, a few in Toronto.

Axworthy is already helping to shape a policy book. Rae is now being asked to assist. Kennedy is being asked to help organize Ontario which means the hope that he might run in the west are probably dim. I don't hold anything into account for Trudeau. I simply don't know him. We'll see if he runs in Montreal.

Comparisons to the Eaton family is a poor one. The Eatons let managers run their companies while they whittled away their fortunes on houses and cars. They gave up on their company long before Canadians did.

The Liberal party is an ongoing concern that starts at the school board level and rises to the federal level. New people and new ideas are always in the wings.

I'm interested to see who might be attracted to become federal candidates.

Dion needs to hit the fundraising trail with a vengeance and looks for candidates along the way. Meanwhile, the Liberal HQ has to plan a central campaign that has imagination and a central theme. They can't react like the last time. The Conservatives might try to paste them with the scandal mud but that might be as successful as the Liberals were with their "scary" campaign.

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

I'm interested to see who might be attracted to become federal candidates.

What *star* candidates could they attract? Trudeau Jr.? Gerard Kennedy? Marc Garneau? Avi Lewis? Jaggi Singh?

Interesting how Trudeau, Garneau and Liza Frulla are all fighting over the uber-safe Liberal seat of Outremont.

Could it be that they are afraid of a having to face the electorate in face of the surging Bloc?

Dion needs to hit the fundraising trail with a vengeance and looks for candidates along the way. Meanwhile, the Liberal HQ has to plan a central campaign that has imagination and a central theme. They can't react like the last time. The Conservatives might try to paste them with the scandal mud but that might be as successful as the Liberals were with their "scary" campaign.

As successful as it was in 1997, 2000 and 2004? or 2006?

While I trust that the Conservatives will bring more to their campaign than the Paul Martin brought to the Liberals' in January, it would be wrong of them to not mention Dion's shameful record as Minister of the Environment or how he was a member of the cabinet that approved the misspent funds for Adscam.

mikedavid00 · December 20, 2006

The Liberals will be back because it they always bring new people into the mix. Dion can now find three new Liberals to run in Montreal, a few in Toronto.

I wouldn't say the Liberals bring anyone 'new' into the mix.

account for Trudeau. I simply don't know him. We'll see if he runs in Montreal.

I'll go on record saying that he'll definately be priminster of Canada before my lifes over.

The Liberal party is an ongoing concern that starts at the school board level and rises to the federal level. New people and new ideas are always in the wings.

The late Liberals have been for the most part, a do nothing gov't. They do not deliver on their ideologies. They talk the talk, but never walk the walk. However, some people prefered this. I liked the fact that the Liberals did nothing these last 13 years when you compare Mulrouny and Trudeau. I do not feel that Dion will 'do nothing' though. That's what upsets me when I imagine these people getting in power.

Dion needs to hit the fundraising trail with a vengeance and looks for candidates along the way. Meanwhile, the Liberal HQ has to plan a central campaign that has imagination and a central theme. They can't react like the last time. The Conservatives might try to paste them with the scandal mud but that might be as successful as the Liberals were with their "scary" campaign.

Canada votes from regions within provinces. Liberals already have the big cities so we won't discuss those. Also, Harper doesn't have a hope in hell for getting those. The outlying portions of the GTA are CPC which I feel are a make or break ridings. Belinda won Newmarket for last time around by a failry small margin. She could lose this seat if people turn sour on Dion. Places like Niagra are also swing. So you have to ask yourself if these swing ridings have a reason to move away from Harpers fairly stellar performance. The answer is they won't. Why? Becuase that's just how Canadians vote. They don't vote for idealisms or even the personality of candidate, they just vote against other parties. This is factual more or less.

These ridings once voted Liberal and they aren't coming back until harper royally screws something up. They have swung to CPC. But they can also swing back to Liberal. Dion's idealisms won't do this. Neither will fresh faces, and Bob Rae CERTAINLY won't help the situation.

The interesting question is this: can Harper penetrate the city vote. He is pandering to the Chinese quite a bit so I'm not sure if that will play out or not in his favor. As you can see, the gaps are just too wide in some of those seats. The immigrants shift would have to huge. Like sheep all supporting Harper. However, there are some realistic seats that can swing and are close in number.

Bolded Blue Means Possible CPC defeat.

Richmond Hill:

Liberal Bryon Wilfert 27,906

Conservative Joe Di Paola 16,515

Scarborough Centre

Liberal John Cannis 23,332

Conservative Roxanne James 11,522

Bramalea—Gore—Malton

Liberal Gurbax Malhi 25,349

Conservative John Sprovieri 16,310

Brampton—Springdale

Liberal Ruby Dhalla 22,294

Conservative Sam Hundal 14,492

Brampton West

Liberal Colleen Beaumier 27,988

Conservative Bal Gosal 20,345

Don Valley East

Liberal Yasmin Ratansi 23,441

Conservative Eugene McDermott 12,661

Don Valley West

Liberal John Godfrey 28,709

Conservative John Carmichael 17,908

Eglinton—Lawrence

Liberal Joe Volpe 26,044

Conservative Peter Coy 14,897

Etobicoke Centre

Liberal Borys Wrzesnewskyj 29,509

Conservative Axel Kuhn 18,702

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Liberal Michael Ignatieff 24,337

Conservative John Capobianco 19,613

Etobicoke North

Liberal Roy Cullen 22,195

Conservative Amanjit Khroad 8,049

Mississauga—Brampton South

Liberal Navdeep Bains 27,409

Conservative Arnjeet Sangha 15,556

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Liberal Guarnieri, Albina 23,530

Conservative DeFaria, Carl 14,326

Mississauga—Erindale

Liberal Omar Alghabra 26,852

Conservative Bob Dechert 23,524

Mississauga South

Liberal Paul Szabo 22,975

Conservative Green, Phil 20,827

Mississauga—Streetsville

Liberal Khan, Wajid 23,913

Conservative Gill, Raminder 18,121

Newmarket—Auro

Liberal Belinda Stronach 27,176

Conservative Lois Brown 22,371

Oakville

Liberal Bonnie Brown 25,892

Conservative Terence Young 25,148

York Centre

Liberal Ken Dryden 22,439

Conservative Michael Mostyn 12,758

York South—Weston

Liberal Alan Tonks 22,871

New Democratic Party Paul Ferreira 8,525

York West

Liberal Judy Sgro 17,903

Conservative Parm Gill 6,244

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

Here's one I'd love to see swing, which could switch as part of a big move to the Conservatives.

Ajax-Pickering

Mark Holland - Liberal - 25,556

Rondo Thomas - Conservative - 16,997

mikedavid00 · December 20, 2006

Here's one I'd love to see swing, which could switch as part of a big move to the Conservatives.
Ajax-Pickering

Mark Holland - Liberal - 25,556

Rondo Thomas - Conservative - 16,997

That gap is pretty big though.. but not huge heheh..

Charles Anthony · December 20, 2006

The Liberals will be back because they always bring new people into the mix. Dion can now find three new Liberals to run in Montreal, a few in Toronto.

You, sir, are a pure old-fashioned same-old - same-old Liberal. Politics is all just show-and-tell for you guys.

Axworthy is already helping to shape a policy book.

Wow! What an original idea! What color will it be?

Comparisons to the Eaton family is a poor one. The Eatons let managers run their companies while they whittled away their fortunes on houses and cars. They gave up on their company long before Canadians did.

Maybe it will be the reverse for the Liberals. Canadians will probably dump the Liberal Party long before the Liberal-managers do.

What *star* candidates could they attract? Trudeau Jr.? Gerard Kennedy? Marc Garneau? Avi Lewis? Jaggi Singh?
Interesting how Trudeau, Garneau and Liza Frulla are all fighting over the uber-safe Liberal seat of Outremont.

Perfect strategy! All the Liberals need is a main act to get everybody in the tent.

jdobbin · December 20, 2006

You, sir, are a pure old-fashioned same-old - same-old Liberal. Politics is all just show-and-tell for you guys.
Wow! What an original idea! What color will it be?

Maybe it will be the reverse for the Liberals. Canadians will probably dump the Liberal Party long before the Liberal-managers do.

Perfect strategy! All the Liberals need is a main act to get everybody in the tent.

Your cynicism aside, the Liberals haven't remained one of the longest governing parties in the world for nothing.

And I've seen no evidence that the Liberals are anywhere near the stage of being dumped by Canadians.

I have no idea if this will all translate into a Liberal government in the spring but the fact that it isn't out of the question should have you cursing the Canadian people, not the Liberal party.

The Canadian people, it seems, just don't understand what the right wing is offering. Or perhaps, maybe they know all too well.

Charles Anthony · December 20, 2006

Your cynicism aside, the Liberals haven't remained one of the longest governing parties in the world for nothing.

-- and you see none of that changing.

kimmy · December 20, 2006

There is a hard core support for NDP out there for sure. What there isn't a lot of love for is Layton.

I thought that most polls showed Layton's personal popularity exceeds his party's support. Has that changed?

Again, I don't dispute that the NDP support is not very good, I'm just puzzled at the assertion that it'll be any worse than usual in the near future.

Axworthy is already helping to shape a policy book.
Wow! What an original idea! What color will it be?

ouch!

-k

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

And I've seen no evidence that the Liberals are anywhere near the stage of being dumped by Canadians.
I have no idea if this will all translate into a Liberal government in the spring but the fact that it isn't out of the question should have you cursing the Canadian people, not the Liberal party.

It isn't out of the question for there to be a Liberal government in the spring. It also isn't out of the question for the Liberals to fall to third party status in the House.

If the Conservatives and the NDP come up with a serious plan for the environment that both can agree to it's lights out for the Liberals. Right leaning Liberal voters move to the Conservatives. Left-leaning Liberal voters "lend" their vote to Jacko. 3% to the right, 5% to the left. ..... Hello third party status!

jdobbin · December 20, 2006

-- and you see none of that changing.

I've seen no evidence of it.

There has been no destruction of the Liberals at the local or provincial level and the federal Liberals were no where near devastated in the last election. All in all, I'd say that all three would have to be in ruins before we'd see the last Liberal government elected, don't you?

jdobbin · December 20, 2006

I thought that most polls showed Layton's personal popularity exceeds his party's support. Has that changed?
Again, I don't dispute that the NDP support is not very good, I'm just puzzled at the assertion that it'll be any worse than usual in the near future.

Traditionally, any NDP government that helps prop up a minority government gets hammered in the polls. It has happened in Ontario. It has happened federally.

Layton runs an extreme risk of propping up the Conservatives with the environment.

I think that in recent weeks we have seen evidence of the NDP getting squeezed in the polls. Some of that will be the Greens, some of that will be the Liberals taking support away from them. Some of it will be NDP people just staying in the undecided column.

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

Layton runs an extreme risk of propping up the Conservatives with the environment.
I think that in recent weeks we have seen evidence of the NDP getting squeezed in the polls. Some of that will be the Greens, some of that will be the Liberals taking support away from them. Some of it will be NDP people just staying in the undecided column.

Why?

There is a significant proportion of the electorate that will vote based on the environment and definitely won't vote Conservative. If the NDP take the lead from the left they can make gains at the expense of the Greens and the Liberals.

fellowtraveller · December 20, 2006

The 'perception hurdle' that the Libs will face in the next election will be a unique challenge for them. None of us - outside Alberta- are used to politicians that actually state what they intend, then do what they said they would do after the election. Harpers greatest achievement is yet to be seen, and he will fight an election on his record of promises that have been fulfilled. He'll also lambaste Dion for his record in government, which is not good.

Harper keeps his promises? What about the healthcare wait times? That was one of the top five promises he made. What about the income trust promises in the election?

He had five priorities, and has acted on four so far. He will make some effort on the fifth.

Compare this to what Martin accomplished, which was very little.

You can be sure Harper will be pointing this out. He can rightfully point to each and with four out of five place a check mark beside them. How often does a Liberal govt run on that sort of platform of accomplishement, all done withing one year and with a minority?? I can undertsand how it stuns you, but there it is.

Vision for the country, promises for everything blah blah blah......

I want action. When I see it, it gets my attention. I suspect there are others who feel the same way, others that did not vote Tory before, and might now.

jdobbin · December 21, 2006

I can undertsand how it stuns you, but there it is.
Vision for the country, promises for everything blah blah blah......

I want action. When I see it, it gets my attention. I suspect there are others who feel the same way, others that did not vote Tory before, and might now.

Actually, when Liberals plowed ahead with things, they called it arrogance.

That fifth promise is still out there. I don't see it being fulfilled or talked about much.

And the stupidity of the income trust promise is a bell that can't be unrung.

Ricki Bobbi · December 21, 2006

Actually, when Liberals plowed ahead with things, they called it arrogance.
That fifth promise is still out there. I don't see it being fulfilled or talked about much.

And the stupidity of the income trust promise is a bell that can't be unrung.

How would you replace the lost revenues from IT?

Wait until the budget. The fifth, and final, priority will be addressed.

geoffrey · December 21, 2006

How would you replace the lost revenues from IT?

I wouldn't. It's called a tax cut and modernizing our ancient economy.

Ricki Bobbi · December 21, 2006

I wouldn't. It's called a tax cut and modernizing our ancient economy.

Would you advocate a return to deficit budgeting? Or do you have a plan for the program cuts necessary to avoid that had Income Trusts not been touched?

geoffrey · December 21, 2006

I wouldn't. It's called a tax cut and modernizing our ancient economy.

Would you advocate a return to deficit budgeting? Or do you have a plan for the program cuts necessary to avoid that had Income Trusts not been touched?

Cut the Federal portion of Health Canada.

The CPC raised the tax burden on personal income tax by 10% in total collected last year, that's 9% above inflation in most areas of the country. They've got lots of cash.

I'd rather see deficit than this ridiculous $13b surplus syndrome we have going. That money belongs in the economy, not paying for whimsical adventures.

mikedavid00 · December 21, 2006

I'd rather see deficit than this ridiculous $13b surplus syndrome we have going. That money belongs in the economy, not paying for whimsical adventures.

I agree. We pay more tax than for food, mortgage payments, travel, and entertainment combined each month.

I don't see where they are going to make cuts when of they spend

83B on Education

103B on Healthcare

164B on Social Services

42B on "Protection of persons and property"

23B on "Transportation and communication" What the hell is this??

And then of course there's the almost 6 Billion dollars on 'Culture' which is outrageous. We truly are a becoming a welfare state. We barely get any services for our taxes and we tie up all our money to welfare, and white collar welfare. The majority of our tax money in Canada goes into other peoples pockets.

I guess everyone thinks money grows off trees or something.

Figleaf · December 22, 2006

http://www.decima.ca/en/newsreleases/
Liberals by Four

Topic: Elections

Released: 12/6/2006

On a national basis 35% of decided and leaning voters say they would vote Liberal, compared to 31% for the Conservative Party, 12% for the NDP, 10% for the BQ and 10% for the Green Party.

The key stories to watch are

· Whether the Liberals under Mr. Dion’s leadership will begin to consolidate the centre-left of

the spectrum at the expense of the NDP and Green Parties.

· If that were to happen, would it create more opportunity at the centre for the Conservatives?

So many of you will be eating your words when the Liberals sweep back in. Look at the rolling averages ... what you see there, amigos, is momentum.

Ricki Bobbi · December 22, 2006

The key stories to watch are
· Whether the Liberals under Mr. Dion’s leadership will begin to consolidate the centre-left of

the spectrum at the expense of the NDP and Green Parties.

· If that were to happen, would it create more opportunity at the centre for the Conservatives?

So many of you will be eating your words when the Liberals sweep back in. Look at the rolling averages ... what you see there, amigos, is momentum.

The key stories to watch in the article you posted ask some very good questions. Yet you ignore them and post a line about the Liberals sweeping back in.

Do you have a response to those questions?

Figleaf · December 22, 2006

The key stories to watch are
· Whether the Liberals under Mr. Dion’s leadership will begin to consolidate the centre-left of

the spectrum at the expense of the NDP and Green Parties.

· If that were to happen, would it create more opportunity at the centre for the Conservatives?

So many of you will be eating your words when the Liberals sweep back in. Look at the rolling averages ... what you see there, amigos, is momentum.

The key stories to watch in the article you posted ask some very good questions. Yet you ignore them and post a line about the Liberals sweeping back in.

If I wanted to ignore them, I would have cut them off.

Tell me this, if you think those questions are a better basis for commentary than the one I chose, why don't you go ahead and comment on them instead of bitching about my choices? Are you trying to be disagreeable?