Uniting The Right

[Alliance Fanatic]

Uniting the Right…?

While Almost Half (46%) of Canadians say it’s Likely they’d Vote for a Merged Progressive Conservative/Canadian Alliance Party in the Next Federal Election…

In a Head to Head Vote, Federal Liberals Led by Paul Martin (51%) would Trump a New United Conservative Party (32%)…

As Federal Liberals Continue to Lead Today with 47% of the National Decided Vote

Category: Federal Politics

Location: Canada

© Ipsos-Reid

Public Release Date: October 5, 2003

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PDF Document : Release

PDF Document : Detailed Tables

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Toronto, ON – According to a new Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV survey, nearly half (46%) of Canadians say it is likely (20% “very likely,” 27% “somewhat likely”) that they would vote for a merged Progressive Conservative/Canadian Alliance party in the next Federal election. A similar proportion (49%) say it is unlikely (32% “not likely at all”, 17% “not very likely”) that they would vote for the merged party, and 5% say they “don’t know.”

But, in a head to head vote, half (51%) of Canadians say they would vote for “the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin” and one-third (32%) say they would vote for “a united conservative type party.” The remaining 17% say they “don’t know.”

And, if a federal election were to be held tomorrow, the Liberals would win with 47% of the vote (45% in June). Fourteen percent (14%) say they would vote Progressive Conservative (15% in June), 13% say they would vote Canadian Alliance (14% in June), 12% say they would vote for the New Democratic Party (11% in June), 9% say they would vote Bloc Quebecois (unchanged), and 4% say they would vote for the Green Party (5% in June).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between September 30th and October 2nd. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1057 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Asked “if the federal Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance Party merged and became a single party, how likely would you be vote for them in the next federal election?” nearly half (46%) of Canadians say it is likely (20% “very likely,” 27% “somewhat likely”) that they would vote for a merged Progressive Conservative/Canadian Alliance party in the next Federal election. A similar proportion (49%) say it is unlikely (32% “not likely at all”, 17% “not very likely”) that they would vote for the merged party, and 5% say they “don’t know.”

Those Canadians most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party are decided Alliance voters (91%) followed by PC voters (80%). Decided Bloc Quebecois voters (29%), Green Party voters (30%), NDP voters (33%), and Liberal voters (36%) are less likely to do so.

Residents of Alberta (70%) are most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party, followed by residents of British Columbia (55%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%). Residents of Quebec (29%), Atlantic Canada (44%), and Ontario (48%) are less likely to do so.

Men (50%) are more likely than women (43%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.

Canadians without a university degree (50%) are more likely than those with (37%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.

Canadians with an annual household income of $30,000-$60,000 (51%) are more likely than those with less (41%) or more (46%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.

Asked if they had “a choice of voting for [a united conservative type party] and for [the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin] which would they choose to vote for,” half (51%) say they would vote for “the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin” and one-third (32%) say they would vote for “a united conservative type party.” The remaining 17% say they “don’t know.”

Those Canadians most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party are decided Alliance voters (79%) followed by PC voters (68%). Decided Liberal voters (11%), NDP voters (29%), Green Party voters (32%), and Bloc Quebecois voters (37%) are less likely to do so.

Residents of Alberta (51%) and British Columbia (45%) are most likely to vote for ”a united conservative-type party.” Residents of Quebec (62%), Ontario (55%), Atlantic Canada (45%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%) are most likely to vote for “the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin.”

Canadians age 18-34 (59%) are more likely than their elders (48%) to vote for “the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin,” while Canadians 35 or older (36%) are more likely than younger Canadians (24%) to vote for ”a united conservative-type party.”

Men (38%) are more likely than women (27%) to vote for ”a united conservative-type party.”

Canadians with a university degree (60%) are more likely than those without (48%) to vote for the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin.”

If a federal election were to be held tomorrow, the Liberals would win with 47% of the vote (45% in June). Fourteen percent (14%) say they would vote Progressive Conservative (15% in June), 13% say they would vote Canadian Alliance (14% in June), 12% say they would vote for the New Democratic Party (11% in June), 9% say they would vote Bloc Quebecois (unchanged), and 4% say they would vote for the Green Party (5% in June).

Residents of Ontario (57%), Quebec (51%), and Atlantic Canada (48%) are most likely to vote Liberal; residents of Atlantic Canada (26%), Alberta (25%), Ontario (17%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%) are most likely to vote PC; residents of Alberta (40%), British Columbia (26%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%) are most likely to vote Alliance; residents of Atlantic Canada (21%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%), British Columbia (18%), Alberta (12%), and Ontario (12%) are most likely to vote NDP; 38% of Quebecers say they would vote Bloc Quebecois; and residents of British Columbia (9%) are most likely to vote for the Green Party in the next federal election.

Canadians 35 and older (16%) are more likely than younger adults (9%) to vote PC in the next federal election; Canadians 55 and older (17%) are more likely than those 18-34 (9%) or 35-54 (12%) to vote Alliance.

Men (15%) are more likely than women (11%) to vote Alliance.

Canadians with a university degree (56%) are more likely than those without (42%) to vote Liberal.

Canadians with an annual household income less than $30,000 (17%) are more likely than others (10%) to vote NDP in the next federal election or Bloc Quebecois (14% vs. 8%); Canadians with an annual household income of $30,000-$60,000 (15%) are more likely than those with less (9%) or more (11%) to vote Alliance.

Please open the attached PDF files to view the release and detailed tables.

[Neal.F.]

This came out early in the week, and is encouraging...Even with no leader, the Conservative Party comes in at 32, higher than the PC/CA vote today combined.

All it'll take is a 10% swing, and it's a brand new ball game.

Note how the Liberal spin doctors tried to play it down by sneeringly declaring "even a united right is no match for Martin"

[Cameron]

Note how the Liberal spin doctors tried to play it down by sneeringly declaring "even a united right is no match for Martin"

These Libs are getting pompus...bastards :angry:

[Neal.F.]

That's nothing new.... You have to pass a pomposity test before they'll give you a Liberal Membership Card!

They're a bit like the Freemasons in that they even have degrees of membership ranging from slightly arrogant to conceited to narcissistic to pompous ass!

[theWatcher]

I don't know if the Liberals are Pompous or that they truly believe they are the natural ruling party.

[Littlefinger]

I don't know if the Liberals are Pompous or that they truly believe they are the natural ruling party.

Well, until the right proves otherwise, what's a good Liberal to think?

[Mr. Chater]

well, thats why the Liberals must work hard. Who knows, you might get a minority government with Liberals and next election, get the Conservatives to take over. The possibilities are endless into what might happen.

[Pellaken]

Here is the polling data

C=the united right

L=the Liberals

N=NDP (Calculated Remaining Vote)

right side of = is a united right

left side of = is the total of CA and PC in the same poll

BC

C-45=34

L-40=36

N-15=40 * (5% of this is probably Green in reality)

AB

C-51=65

L-35=17

N-14=18

SKMB

C-32=36

L-42=35

N-26=29

ON

C-27=29

L-55=57

N-18=14

PQ

C-26=7

L-62=51

O-12=42 (Other, probably mostly Bloc with some NDP)

ATL

C-32=30

L-45=48

N-23=22

Interesting things to note:

the NDP would drop like a rock in BC

more importantly

a united right would CRUSH the Bloc. I think the NDP might make some gains in Quebec due to this, picking up left wing Bloc votes, if not left wing Bloc MP's!

also note, there would be a 28 vote split between the Lib's and the Conservatives in Ontario, union or not.

a united right would kill the NDP for this election, as left-wing liberals now have a reason to vote Liberal.

In future elections IMHO, this would be great for the NDP.

[westcoast99]

You're right, they could chip away at some BQ seats.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Gugsy

[theWatcher]

Pellaken I think some of your numbers could use a little editting, or maybe its just me.

The BC and Quebec numbers look off, doesn't it show NDP vote rising to 40% in BC on a combined vote?

And A Conservative vote dropping to 7% in Quebec?

Maybe I am just slow today...

[Mr. Chater]

yeah, i don't think they would really drop

But what you say in statistics is relatively realistic, though you never know.

[Pellaken]

no

the NDP (and all other parties togethor) would have 40% of the vote without a merger. I dont think its spectacular to assume the greens are at 5% in BC, and I dont think its amazing to think the NDP's at 35% there.

[westcoast99]

and I dont think its amazing to think the NDP's at 35% there.

I do, considering polls have them at 16% there.

[Pellaken]

first of all, I made a math error.

it should be 30% not 40% (meaning the likely NDP support is only 25%)

as for your poll, I dare you to show me a recent poll that has the NDP that insanley low in BC.