New Ipsos Reid Poll: Liberal Party Would Lose With Dion

[sharkman]

A poll conducted last Thursday didn't get much in the way of coverage leading up to the Liberal shindig on the weekend. It shows that the liberal party under any of the candidates would lose to the Tories.

''In fact, it would appear that after a divisive and hard-fought leadership race that Liberal voters are as divided as the Liberal convention delegates themselves. The results suggest the issue for Liberals is not who can defeat the Conservative government, but rather: Who can put the Liberal party back together again?''

It apears that the Liberal party is still a long way off from being able to challenge for a majority government, they need time to rebuild their damaged reputation.

[jdobbin]

A poll conducted last Thursday didn't get much in the way of coverage leading up to the Liberal shindig on the weekend. It shows that the liberal party under any of the candidates would lose to the Tories.

''In fact, it would appear that after a divisive and hard-fought leadership race that Liberal voters are as divided as the Liberal convention delegates themselves. The results suggest the issue for Liberals is not who can defeat the Conservative government, but rather: Who can put the Liberal party back together again?''

It apears that the Liberal party is still a long way off from being able to challenge for a majority government, they need time to rebuild their damaged reputation.

Old information. Best look at the CTV poll now. That poll has them in majority numbers. With Dion. In Canada.

[normanchateau]

A poll conducted last Thursday didn't get much in the way of coverage leading up to the Liberal shindig on the weekend. It shows that the liberal party under any of the candidates would lose to the Tories.

''In fact, it would appear that after a divisive and hard-fought leadership race that Liberal voters are as divided as the Liberal convention delegates themselves. The results suggest the issue for Liberals is not who can defeat the Conservative government, but rather: Who can put the Liberal party back together again?''

It apears that the Liberal party is still a long way off from being able to challenge for a majority government, they need time to rebuild their damaged reputation.

I hope Harper believes these numbers and calls an election in the next month or two.

[sharkman]

Would you mind linking to it, I tried googling but could only get old ctv polls. It's not unexpected that the Liberals would have a bounce in popularity after a leadership convention, every leadership convention has that. 2 or 3 weeks from now the numbers will show how much of the bounce they kept.

Edit: Furthermore, the CTV poll you cite is actually a Strategic Council poll, and on analyzing their numbers over the last several months, they usually had higher results for the Libs and lower results for the Tories. Can you say "bias"? The poll I referenced is Ipsos Reid.

[jdobbin]

Would you mind linking to it, I tried googling but could only get old ctv polls. It's not unexpected that the Liberals would have a bounce in popularity after a leadership convention, every leadership convention has that. 2 or 3 weeks from now the numbers will show how much of the bounce they kept.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...04?hub=Politics

[kimmy]

That poll has them in majority numbers. With Dion. In Canada.

We're not making this up.

I know people are getting sick of hearing "it's early", but it's early.

Here's 2 reasons why people shouldn't read too much this poll:

(1) party conventions always result in a short term boost in the polls. The convention puts the party in the spotlight for a week of fuzzy-wuzzy media coverage.

(2) Stephane Dion was largely spared the scrutiny that was given Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff. With Dion well back in 4th place prior to the voting, his positions received little coverage. Now that he's leader, he will receive a level of scrutiny and attention that he hadn't received during the campaign, and when his positions on some issues, particularly no-win issues like Afghanistan or fiscal issues, become well known, it will inevitably turn some people off.

-k

[myata]

Afganistan no win? I don't know who you're talking to, but it'll be a huge win with most I know. The environment agenda too.

Yes it's early and no one can predict how it'll play out, but these are the numbers as of now. As the article says, majority of Canadians are willing to give Dion a chance. It's up to him and the party to make it (or break it).

[jdobbin]

I know people are getting sick of hearing "it's early", but it's early.

Here's 2 reasons why people shouldn't read too much this poll:

(1) party conventions always result in a short term boost in the polls. The convention puts the party in the spotlight for a week of fuzzy-wuzzy media coverage.

(2) Stephane Dion was largely spared the scrutiny that was given Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff. With Dion well back in 4th place prior to the voting, his positions received little coverage. Now that he's leader, he will receive a level of scrutiny and attention that he hadn't received during the campaign, and when his positions on some issues, particularly no-win issues like Afghanistan or fiscal issues, become well known, it will inevitably turn some people off.

I have posted in another thread that immediate pre-leadership vote poll numbers and immediate post-leadership poll numbers are probably not the best polls to gauge overall popularity.

[watching&waiting]

My god the hacks have been brain washed again or are they just trying to shine a light on things? Dion will not get the votes of the people in Ontario, and the Toronto seats will start to be picked off by both the NDP and CPC. The Quebec voters will turn to the block and the odd one to the CPC. I can not see any where that Dion will gain seats, and that means that he will never form a government. So yes the polls do have it right that he will need to rebuild the party and lose the backing of the Chretienites, if he is ever going to have his chance at the brass ring.

No matter how they try to shine the light on Dion he comes with much baggage. He now will come under fire of Shelia Fraser, as his position would demend clarity on his past postings, and with 4 billion gone thru the Environment with nothing to show for it, that will once again mean that the Liberals would need to act fast or lose their chance. Their pasts will come back to haunt them all. They may need to once again look at another leader before they will have renewal that this last one was supposed to be.

[jdobbin]

My god the hacks have been brain washed again or are they just trying to shine a light on things? Dion will not get the votes of the people in Ontario, and the Toronto seats will start to be picked off by both the NDP and CPC. The Quebec voters will turn to the block and the odd one to the CPC. I can not see any where that Dion will gain seats, and that means that he will never form a government. So yes the polls do have it right that he will need to rebuild the party and lose the backing of the Chretienites, if he is ever going to have his chance at the brass ring.

I think I can remember people here saying how victory would belong to the Republicans in the U.S. in both houses a few months ago. I don't know that we can really trust the analysis of people who have a lower level of accuracy than weather forecasters.

The focus will indeed be on Dion. And it will be on Harper as well. With a year under his belt, the next Fraser report is likely to have just as much on him as it does on the previous Liberal government. She might ask why Harper hasn't filled positions on the court and immigration. She might question his choice of interfering in bidding process for military contracts and using "national security" as the reason.

We'll see how this all plays out in the weeks to come (that is if Harper doesn't call an election in January like some pundits think).

People can start blaming the media now if they like.

[Saturn]

A poll conducted last Thursday didn't get much in the way of coverage leading up to the Liberal shindig on the weekend. It shows that the liberal party under any of the candidates would lose to the Tories.

''In fact, it would appear that after a divisive and hard-fought leadership race that Liberal voters are as divided as the Liberal convention delegates themselves. The results suggest the issue for Liberals is not who can defeat the Conservative government, but rather: Who can put the Liberal party back together again?''

It apears that the Liberal party is still a long way off from being able to challenge for a majority government, they need time to rebuild their damaged reputation.

Blah, blah. Ipsos-Reid is more of a conservative think-tank than a polling company. They consistently overestimate the popularity of the conservatives and are always at the head of the supposed jump in popularity of the conservatives a week before the election (which always turns out to be far too optimistic when the real poll comes).

[Saturn]

Would you mind linking to it, I tried googling but could only get old ctv polls. It's not unexpected that the Liberals would have a bounce in popularity after a leadership convention, every leadership convention has that. 2 or 3 weeks from now the numbers will show how much of the bounce they kept.

Edit: Furthermore, the CTV poll you cite is actually a Strategic Council poll, and on analyzing their numbers over the last several months, they usually had higher results for the Libs and lower results for the Tories. Can you say "bias"? The poll I referenced is Ipsos Reid.

My point exactly. Ipsos-Reid always overestimates the conservative numbers - it's not the other way around.

[geoffrey]

The environment agenda too.

ANY Canadian that votes for the Liberals based on environment doesn't have the mental capacity to vote. Does no one remember the record the Liberals have on environment? How emissions skyrocketed faster than ever before, how toxic waste sites increased and how more reserves than ever (well, since the white man came) don't have drinking water?

People are going to vote for the Liberals on environment why? What are they doing different this time?

Nothing!!

How easily people are convinced by empty rhetoric...

[Saturn]

The environment agenda too.

ANY Canadian that votes for the Liberals based on environment doesn't have the mental capacity to vote. Does no one remember the record the Liberals have on environment? How emissions skyrocketed faster than ever before, how toxic waste sites increased and how more reserves than ever (well, since the white man came) don't have drinking water?

People are going to vote for the Liberals on environment why? What are they doing different this time?

Nothing!!

How easily people are convinced by empty rhetoric...

The liberals may do little on the environment but the conservatives are doing absolutely nothing and have made it clear that they will never move a finger while our environment is ravaged by their friends. When it comes to choosing the lesser of two evils, the liberals are definitely it.

[punked]

The environment agenda too.

ANY Canadian that votes for the Liberals based on environment doesn't have the mental capacity to vote. Does no one remember the record the Liberals have on environment? How emissions skyrocketed faster than ever before, how toxic waste sites increased and how more reserves than ever (well, since the white man came) don't have drinking water?

People are going to vote for the Liberals on environment why? What are they doing different this time?

Nothing!!

How easily people are convinced by empty rhetoric...

The liberals may do little on the environment but the conservatives are doing absolutely nothing and have made it clear that they will never move a finger while our environment is ravaged by their friends. When it comes to choosing the lesser of two evils, the liberals are definitely it.

What's that their are at least 2 other parties besides the liberals and conservatives in Canada? Who and those two other parties actually have an enviromental agenda? Jeez sounds like if you care about the enviroment than stop acting like we livein a two party system.

[geoffrey]

One party is hardline socialist and the other some grab bag of failed businessmen and hippies (and American leader!!). Not really alternatives in my opinion.

[Saturn]

The environment agenda too.

ANY Canadian that votes for the Liberals based on environment doesn't have the mental capacity to vote. Does no one remember the record the Liberals have on environment? How emissions skyrocketed faster than ever before, how toxic waste sites increased and how more reserves than ever (well, since the white man came) don't have drinking water?

People are going to vote for the Liberals on environment why? What are they doing different this time?

Nothing!!

How easily people are convinced by empty rhetoric...

The liberals may do little on the environment but the conservatives are doing absolutely nothing and have made it clear that they will never move a finger while our environment is ravaged by their friends. When it comes to choosing the lesser of two evils, the liberals are definitely it.

What's that their are at least 2 other parties besides the liberals and conservatives in Canada? Who and those two other parties actually have an enviromental agenda? Jeez sounds like if you care about the enviroment than stop acting like we livein a two party system.

The other two parties have no hope in hell in ever replacing the conservatives. Supporting them is nothing but a wasted vote and the equivalent of support for Harper. The liberals aren't my first choice but they are quite an improvement over Harper and I'd rather have them than be stuck with him. Actually, that's what a lot of people are finally getting and consequently Dion won't get elected - Harper will get kicked out by people who would otherwise vote for a third party but would rather get rid of him.

[normanchateau]

The environment agenda too.

ANY Canadian that votes for the Liberals based on environment doesn't have the mental capacity to vote. Does no one remember the record the Liberals have on environment? How emissions skyrocketed faster than ever before, how toxic waste sites increased and how more reserves than ever (well, since the white man came) don't have drinking water?

People are going to vote for the Liberals on environment why? What are they doing different this time?

Nothing!!

How easily people are convinced by empty rhetoric...

The liberals may do little on the environment but the conservatives are doing absolutely nothing and have made it clear that they will never move a finger while our environment is ravaged by their friends.

I wouldn't say the Conservatives have done nothing. So-con Harper made so-con Darrel Reid Chief of Staff to Rona Ambrose. What better place for Harper to show how he cares about the environment than to put the former Focus on the Family leader into this position. After all, it's not Harper's fault that Focus on the Family doesn't believe in global warming. Far more important in Harper's mind, apparently, is that so-con religious extremists have a safe landing pad in Harper's new government.

[geoffrey]

The CPC has a plan within 9 months of having power. The Liberals didn't have a plan after 13 years and an international commitment. It's really not tough in my mind to see that ok, they are both failures... but the Liberals definitely have no right to make the environment an issue... or people must be pretty stupid to believe them.

[normanchateau]

The CPC has a plan within 9 months of having power.

Appointing Darrel Reid is a plan but it will ultimately help Dion, not Harper. Harper is so out of touch with ordinary Canadians that he can't even see the negative optics of appointing a so-con who lead a religious extremist group which did not believe that global warming is occurring.