Will Stéphane Dion ever be PM of Canada?

August1991 · December 4, 2006

You have to go back to Edward Blake in the 19th century to find a federal Liberal leader who was never Prime Minister of Canada, and all were elected except for Turner.

So, will Dion ever get elected as PM?

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Shortly after I joined MLW, I posted the following predictions about Dion. At the time, I had just returned to Canada after living abroad for many years. I had previously thought that I'd take an interest again in Canadian politics when the right united under a new Conservative Party. When Harper did that, I joined the Conservatives, voted for Harper in the leadership and joined MLW. At the time, I barely knew who Harper and Dion were. My comments were posted just prior to the 2004 election (in which I wrongly thought the Tories would win):

The Liberal Party of Canada exists with one single purpose in mind: power. Without power, the Liberal Party collapses to - what?
In this case, I think many ordinary Liberals are thinking they backed the wrong horse. It looked good on paper, but the horse couldn't run.

Liberals are very practical. The only ones fighting for their lives now are the Anglo clique, Herle et al, around Martin. IOW, Martin is done for. (I bet Lapierre is already mentally walking away from this.)

Harper's real test will be the next election - against Dion.

According to tradition since Edward Blake, federal Liberals have switched between English and French. Lapierre wanted it but he won't get it. The next federal Liberal leader will be Dion and he'll be PM of Canada. You read it here first. (This story is far from over.)
If you're a federalist (I'm not really), Canada has some kind of weird protecting horoscope sign. Fate seems to have decided this place.

Speculation isn't the word. This is almost fabulation.
But kinda fun. And there is an inexorable logic to it.

Well, apparently, he is an underestimated force.
The holy grail of successful politicians in a post-modern era. How long will this last?
Actually, a House with Dion and Harper facing off would be good for everyone. Like Disraeli and Gladstone?

BTW, what religion is Harper?

IOW, I have a suspicion that we may be embarking on a curious duel for power between two rivals that may well last a decade or longer. In the process, Canada will find a new definition of itself.

So, if I answer my own poll, the answer is yes. Dion will be PM, but it may well be a minority government. There will be a curious dynamic between Dion and Harper. Neither are involved in politics to stand on the sidelines and comment on the passing parade. Both think they are right. And both will patiently wait for power.

August1991 · December 4, 2006

This new thread was supposed to be a poll. Looks like I bungled. Oops.

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Fixed.

Edited December 4, 2006 by August1991

geoffrey · December 4, 2006

Where can Dion pick up the 20 or so seats he'll need for even a minority? Not Ontario, definitely not the the West... there isn't even enough seats in the Maritimes if he swept.

Can he pick up 20 Quebec seats?

I'm going to say no chance in hell.

sideshow · December 4, 2006

so far this poll looks like the last election (and dare i say the next one?). lol!

stignasty · December 4, 2006

Can he pick up 20 Quebec seats?
I'm going to say no chance in hell.

There's what, a 22 seat difference between the parties now? If the Liberals manage to take back 12 seats from the Conservatives in Ontario they're in minority position. Weirder things have happened.

jdobbin · December 4, 2006

There's what, a 22 seat difference between the parties now? If the Liberals manage to take back 12 seats from the Conservatives in Ontario they're in minority position. Weirder things have happened.

Harper could lose a few seats in the west if the Canadian Wheat Board goes.

geoffrey · December 4, 2006

There's what, a 22 seat difference between the parties now? If the Liberals manage to take back 12 seats from the Conservatives in Ontario they're in minority position. Weirder things have happened.

Harper could lose a few seats in the west if the Canadian Wheat Board goes.

Dion will lose seats in Ontario though, Ontario had 3 of their boys in, and they chose a Quebecois. Is Dion attractive to the 905? No. He didn't do so hot Super Weekend in Ontario, behind Iggy, Kennedy and Rae. It's telling when a failed socialist gets 6% more than you do in a province. I don't think Dion is liked anywhere in the entire country outside of Montreal.

If Harper were to lose western seats, which he won't with the Wheat board, they aren't going Liberal. Farmers don't like Liberals... you'd see the NDP gain before Liberals ever will. Especially when farmers hear how their leader speaks English.

Sex Panther · December 4, 2006

Is Dion still doing shows in Vegas on the weekends?

watching&waiting · December 4, 2006

Jdobbin

You seem really linked to the wheat board thing. I am willing to bet that there are not that many farmers that would be al that pissed if the wheat board disappeared. You forget it is the western farmers who have been saying they can get better prices selling it in the USA. So while there may be support for it here in Canada, there also is a good number who are against it. I guess you should just make it voluntery like it is in the east and let the larket place do its thing. I do not expect that it will have much political consequence.

As for Dion goes, I believe that in the next week he will be painted as the same old Chretien Liberal, and he will only be there for maybe two elections before it is realized that he can not beat Harper. Then maybe the Liberals this next time will actually do what they should have done this time, and pick a new leader absent of all old guard influence.

stignasty · December 4, 2006

Jdobbin
You seem really linked to the wheat board thing. I am willing to bet that there are not that many farmers that would be al that pissed if the wheat board disappeared. You forget it is the western farmers who have been saying they can get better prices selling it in the USA. So while there may be support for it here in Canada, there also is a good number who are against it. I guess you should just make it voluntery like it is in the east and let the larket place do its thing. I do not expect that it will have much political consequence.

Agreed. In Southern Alberta there is a vocal community of farmers who want to do away with the Wheat Board.

As for Dion goes, I believe that in the next week he will be painted as the same old Chretien Liberal, and he will only be there for maybe two elections before it is realized that he can not beat Harper. Then maybe the Liberals this next time will actually do what they should have done this time, and pick a new leader absent of all old guard influence.

Perhaps. By that time Michael Ignatieff will be more seasoned in Parliament - and more appealing to the membership of the party.

geoffrey · December 4, 2006

Perhaps. By that time Michael Ignatieff will be more seasoned in Parliament - and more appealing to the membership of the party.

Or he'll open his mouth again.

That guy digs so many holes it's hard to comprehend. He doesn't watch what he says, doesn't fly for a leader in Canadian politics.

August1991 · December 4, 2006

There's what, a 22 seat difference between the parties now? If the Liberals manage to take back 12 seats from the Conservatives in Ontario they're in minority position. Weirder things have happened.

Bottom line, that's it. 12 seats. But it requires many English-Canadians voting once again for a French-Canadian or Quebec PM. This has been going on since 1968. Almost 40 years. Surely people are going to stop and wonder. Heck, two (Chretien, Mulroney) of the five from Quebec now have a reputation of corruption. One (Martin) never stayed long enough but he's doubtful. Another (Trudeau) has at best a mixed reputation. So the fifth (Dion) is going to be a change?

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I think nevertheless that Canada is embarking on an interesting period. A protestant WASP against a Catholic vrai de vrai. The son of an accountant against the son of a commentator icon.

Yes, these two will tussle about the environment. (I give Harper the edge since he knows what the Coase Theorem is. Dion is a polisci professor who can't do math.) The debate on Canada will fascinate. Harper will defend provincial rights while Dion defends the central power. Dion said (weakly) that if he can succeed in Canada despite his accent, then Canada belongs to all Quebecers. Harper can make the same claim - but better.

Neither Harper nor Dion will give up party leadership easily. In political terms, they're both young. They're both convinced they're right but they're both respectful and even willing to question.

Democracy doesn't get much better than this.

jdobbin · December 4, 2006

I think nevertheless that Canada is embarking on an interesting period. A protestant WASP against a Catholic vrai de vrai. The son of an accountant against the son of a commentator icon.
Yes, these two will tussle about the environment. (I give Harper the edge since he knows what the Coase Theorem is. Dion is a polisci professor who can't do math.) The debate on Canada will fascinate. Harper will defend provincial rights while Dion defends the central power. Dion said (weakly) that if he can succeed in Canada despite his accent, then Canada belongs to all Quebecers. Harper can make the same claim - but better.

Neither Harper nor Dion will give up party leadership easily. In political terms, they're both young. They're both convinced they're right but they're both respectful and even willing to question.

Democracy doesn't get much better than this.

Harper barely goes to church. I think one blog had it as twice last year.

Dion's work at Brookings in Washington D.C. was comprised of some fairly complicated math.

Harper doesn't defend provincial rights or he would leave the western based Canadian Wheat Board alone since it has majority support in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

stignasty · December 4, 2006

Democracy doesn't get much better than this.

Agreed. Hopefully the party leaders will all prove to be competent and we will be provided with an effective Parliament and Government now, and after the next election.

stignasty · December 4, 2006

"Dion’s victory speech was very good but all it really did was confirm everyone’s preconceived notions of the guy. Liberals see a saviour who will bring them back to power and the Tories are rubbing their hands in glee over the prospect of heading into battle against a French guy who has a dog named Kyoto.

Dion is an enigma to most Canadians and that’s not such a bad thing. He takes over the Liberal party as a relative unknown and as a result people have pretty low expectations of the guy. This is a good position for a politician to be in, he really has nowhere to go but up."

-- Rick Mercer

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/wmercer

punked · December 4, 2006

Fact is he has to grab votes everywhere he can get them and right now I am not convinced.

Leader Circle · December 4, 2006

I think nevertheless that Canada is embarking on an interesting period. A protestant WASP against a Catholic vrai de vrai. The son of an accountant against the son of a commentator icon.

Yes, these two will tussle about the environment. (I give Harper the edge since he knows what the Coase Theorem is. Dion is a polisci professor who can't do math.) The debate on Canada will fascinate. Harper will defend provincial rights while Dion defends the central power. Dion said (weakly) that if he can succeed in Canada despite his accent, then Canada belongs to all Quebecers. Harper can make the same claim - but better.

Neither Harper nor Dion will give up party leadership easily. In political terms, they're both young. They're both convinced they're right but they're both respectful and even willing to question.

Democracy doesn't get much better than this.

Harper barely goes to church. I think one blog had it as twice last year.

Dion's work at Brookings in Washington D.C. was comprised of some fairly complicated math.

Harper doesn't defend provincial rights or he would leave the western based Canadian Wheat Board alone since it has majority support in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

You and that wheat board....do you have sexual dreams about the wheat board??

AND...NOBODY like the CWB from the west, who were you polling?

Why would anyone, have the lowest price dictated to them by a bunch of communists?

August1991 · December 4, 2006

--Dion is an enigma to most Canadians and that’s not such a bad thing. He takes over the Liberal party as a relative unknown and as a result people have pretty low expectations of the guy. This is a good position for a politician to be in, he really has nowhere to go but up." -- Rick Mercer

Rick Mercer is a post-modernist gadfly so of course he ascribes to the "lower expectations" school of political thought.

But Rick Mercer, like much of the 1960s CBC, 1990s MTV crowd, are pre-September 2001 despite their supposed post-modern sophistication.

The modern world moves faster and faster and the only way to stay modern is to understand well, old truths.

gc1765 · December 4, 2006

A new poll suggests that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives with Dion as leader. If this holds, Dion will be the next PM. I figured that since the Liberals chose Dion their numbers would go up. Afterall, they were more or less tied without a leader and the prospect of having someone like Rae or Ignatieff. Now that they've chosen someone who is much more liked than either Rae or Iggy, it only makes sense that they would do better in the polls. Here is the quote:

The poll was taken in the hours after the convention, where Mr. Dion, with the endorsement of Gerard Kennedy, surged past front-runner Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae to claim the Liberal crown.
It shows that if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Mr. Dion would garner 37 per cent of the vote, compared with 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP polled 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 11 per cent, and the Green Party, 7.

Link

jdobbin · December 4, 2006

You and that wheat board....do you have sexual dreams about the wheat board??
AND...NOBODY like the CWB from the west, who were you polling?

Why would anyone, have the lowest price dictated to them by a bunch of communists?

Please show me where the west is against the Wheat Board. You've seen polls on the membership?

And the right wing like to put forward ideas without looking at whether the goal can be achieved. Harper wanting to go to Iraq comes to mind.

And please refrain from personal and rather crude accusations.

punked · December 4, 2006

A new poll suggests that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives with Dion as leader. If this holds, Dion will be the next PM. I figured that since the Liberals chose Dion their numbers would go up. Afterall, they were more or less tied without a leader and the prospect of having someone like Rae or Ignatieff. Now that they've chosen someone who is much more liked than either Rae or Iggy, it only makes sense that they would do better in the polls. Here is the quote:
The poll was taken in the hours after the convention, where Mr. Dion, with the endorsement of Gerard Kennedy, surged past front-runner Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae to claim the Liberal crown.
It shows that if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Mr. Dion would garner 37 per cent of the vote, compared with 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP polled 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 11 per cent, and the Green Party, 7.

Link

Yah the poll was 1000 canadians in qubec and ontario that isn't even canada. BS!

jdobbin · December 4, 2006

A new poll suggests that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives with Dion as leader. If this holds, Dion will be the next PM. I figured that since the Liberals chose Dion their numbers would go up. Afterall, they were more or less tied without a leader and the prospect of having someone like Rae or Ignatieff. Now that they've chosen someone who is much more liked than either Rae or Iggy, it only makes sense that they would do better in the polls. Here is the quote:

It is a boost following the campaign. Dion will have to keep the pressure on and get out to the country. I still think a lot of people don't know who he is.

The old media game of showing a picture of a political leader and getting the "I dunno" response was being done all this Sunday.

jdobbin · December 4, 2006

Yah the poll was 1000 canadians in qubec and ontario that isn't even canada. BS!

It was faked. You're quite right.

apollo19 · December 4, 2006

I think Dion will be the PM in under a year. Harper and his crew aren't too bright about running things so far, and I'm not sure if they will figure it out in time. As it was mentioned, all the Liberals really need is 12 seats to be in government. I'm quite sure they will be able to pick them up in Ontario alone. It seems we are in for another period of minority governments, as both Dion and Harper are patient and aren't willing to rock the boat. Add to that the BQ holding relatively constant, and I think things will stay in minority position until the next Quebec provincial election, with maybe a few seats jostling between the CPC and LPC, allowing the government to change.

mikedavid00 · December 4, 2006

I think Dion will be the PM in under a year. Harper and his crew aren't too bright about running things so far, and I'm not sure if they will figure it out in time. As it was mentioned, all the Liberals really need is 12 seats to be in government. I'm quite sure they will be able to pick them up in Ontario alone. It seems we are in for another period of minority governments, as both Dion and Harper are patient and aren't willing to rock the boat. Add to that the BQ holding relatively constant, and I think things will stay in minority position until the next Quebec provincial election, with maybe a few seats jostling between the CPC and LPC, allowing the government to change.

Do you honestly think that spending billions of our dollars on stupid green house emisoins is in the best interest of Canadians?? lol..