The Economy...

[righturnonred]

Having problems with the board in previous post...

Bashing China on trade, erecting tariffs, stimulating trade sanctions and causing trade disruption is not smart politics nor economics.

I agree this is not smart policy. That is why this is such a difficult situation. On the one hand, we want cheap goods for import and big markets for export, but on the other hand, we need to avoid contributing to China's growth as a regional/global military power.

The faster China becomes integrated with liberal trading systems in the world order, the faster we will witness a political transformation.

While this is possible, I don't think it's very likely to happen that way. It's more likely that China's leadership will retain universal power while integrating elements of a free market system into their economy. We're unlikely to see democratic reforms in China without foriegn military intervention or revolution.

I am convinced that far from being an enemy, China will become a trade and political ally of the US - IF it is handled properly.

I really hope that's the case. But the rhetoric and posturing I see coming from Chinese civilian and miliary leaders makes me very pessimistic to such an outcome. It is just an undeniable fact that China views us unequivocally as an enemy, regardless of how we see them.

[Craig Read]

China will be an ally not an enemy RTOR. There is enough common ground to dispel antagonistic feelings. The Chinese have suffered from a cultural inferiority complex for 150 years. When the old leadership dies off the younger generation will be more accustomed to cooperation and trade, and will be more interested in BMW, Gucci and mansions, than in bombast, guns and mindless conformity.

On the US, the economy continues to surge and the stock market will pass 10.000 this year. By next June i predict a Dow of 11500.

Not BAD considering they are fighting a war. Stupid americans, don't they know that the Canadian model [<1.5 % gdp growth this year], is the RIGHT model.

barometer of manufacturing activity surged to 62.8 in November from 57.0 in October. Wall Street economists had predicted a rise to 58.0.

"What we saw was an amazing month in November by just about any standard," said Norbert Ore, the ISM executive in charge of the survey.

[Craig Read]

Non-farm business productivity grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.4% from July through September, the Labor Department said Wednesday, revising its initial estimate of an 8.1% increase. The increase from the third quarter of 2002 was a whopping 5%, the fastest rate in 53 years.

But the gains weren't entirely due to employers' squeezing more effort out of reduced work forces: workers' hours expanded at the fastest pace in three years.

This means future higher profits, no inflation and more jobs.

And in Canada..........?

[Michael Hardner]

workers' hours expanded at the fastest pace in three years. ...

This means ... more jobs.

More jobs at longer hours and less pay will always have a positive increase in productivity. At some point, though, these conditions help employers at the expense of workers.

[Galahad]

More jobs at longer hours and less pay will always have a positive increase in productivity. At some point, though, these conditions help employers at the expense of workers.

I'd call that slavery, if you ask me.

Asking the opinion of my friend, Oscar, on this subject he said:

"The fact is, Galahad, that civilization requires slaves. Unless there are slaves to do the ugly work, culture and contemplation become almost impossible. But human slavery is wrong, insecure, and demoralising. It's on MECHANICAL slavery, on the slavery of the MACHINE, the future of the world depends. Don't you think?"

I agreed. I think he hit the nail on the head there.

[Michael Hardner]

Relegalizing slavery would do wonders for our productivity !

[righturnonred]

More jobs at longer hours and less pay will always have a positive increase in productivity.

Productivity is a funtion of output per worker hour.

Wages have increased, not decreased.

While increases in productivity can sometimes result in stalled hiring, expanded worker hours means that increased productivity alone it incapable of sustaining increased levels of production. The result is job creation.

In essence, hiring results because growth is greater than productivity gains.

The fact is, Galahad, that civilization requires slaves. Unless there are slaves to do the ugly work, culture and contemplation become almost impossible.

No offense, but this is dumb statement. Any intellecually honest person makes a distinction between slavery and work. Of course, if you want to look at it from this transcendental perspective, I guess I'm nothing more than a high paid slave.

I supose this goes without saying but, just because a machine preforms mundane, undesireable tasks does not mean it is providing a replacement for slave labor.

Relegalizing slavery would do wonders for our productivity

Actually, slavery wasn't all that productive. Slaves were very expensive to purchase and required high overhead to maintain.

[Galahad]

No offense, but this is dumb statement. Any intellecually honest person makes a distinction between slavery and work. Of course, if you want to look at it from this transcendental perspective, I guess I'm nothing more than a high paid slave.

I supose this goes without saying but, just because a machine preforms mundane, undesireable tasks does not mean it is providing a replacement for slave labor.

No offense taken.

It takes guts to call one of the leading geniuses of the late 19th century "dumb".

More guts than I'd have.

[Hugo]

It takes guts to call one of the leading geniuses of the late 19th century "dumb".

I would be very careful when quoting Wilde to prove a political point. He is deliberately vague, sometimes contradictory, given to making statements for purely inflammatory value, and often speaking with his tongue firmly in his cheek. Yes, he was a genius - but not for his political and economic theory.

[Galahad]

I would be very careful when quoting Wilde to prove a political point. He is deliberately vague, sometimes contradictory, given to making statements for purely inflammatory value, and often speaking with his tongue firmly in his cheek. Yes, he was a genius - but not for his political and economic theory.

Is he deliberately vague, contradictory, making statements for purely inflammatory value or speaking with his tongue firmly in his cheek in this quotation?

The man's genius was his mind & his way with words. He struck chords because what he said was often the truth & said better than most could say it.

To what do YOU attribute his genius?

[Hugo]

Is he deliberately vague, contradictory, making statements for purely inflammatory value or speaking with his tongue firmly in his cheek in this quotation?

It's difficult to tell. Only Wilde knew for sure, and he's dead now. That's why I urge you to exercise caution when quoting him, or indeed any source given to these kind of statements.

To what do YOU attribute his genius?

If you are asking me what I feel his field of genius was, it was his writing of fictional works and humour. A genius of economic theory would be a man such as Adam Smith, not Oscar Wilde. You might as well say that Einstein's genius makes him an authority on agriculture.

[Galahad]

It's difficult to tell. Only Wilde knew for sure, and he's dead now. That's why I urge you to exercise caution when quoting him, or indeed any source given to these kind of statements.

If you are asking me what I feel his field of genius was, it was his writing of fictional works and humour. A genius of economic theory would be a man such as Adam Smith, not Oscar Wilde. You might as well say that Einstein's genius makes him an authority on agriculture.

Only the author EVER knows what he is thinking.

If authors of books you are reading are still alive (as alas poor Oscar is not) do you contact them frequently to clarify passages that leave you uncertain as to their meaning? Do they respond?

And although Adam Smith & Einstein are dead , oddly enough people still read their writings without need for a clairvoyant for interpretations.

Genius in the field of literature can't be attained without insight into the human mind & heart. Thus great authors can often have insights into many of the fields of human endeavor.

In my opinion Oscar did.

[Morgan]

I see this as a theoretical discussion about Oscar Wilde's quote, yes? So I don't want to be raked over the coals for how I interpret Wilde's naivity.

Oscar Wilde lived during Victorian times, a period that experienced alot of change and prosperity but also took a tremendous toll on the laboring clases. Though Wilde was a member of the upper class, he was a socialist and the quote you posted from him is in keeping with Wilde's duality-he was born to gentility that required a lower class to do the labor and run the machinery, but his sympathies were with the laborers. So he hoped that eventually technology would become so efficient that the lower class would be freed from doing the tedious work and all humanity would live happily ever after singing Kumbaya.

I think Wilde was mistaken re: machinery contributing to a Utopian classless society. Technology is a double edged sword. Indeed, efficiency in technology has freed up people from doing tedious repetitive tasks.

But people are not created equal in skills/abilities. What do you do with a growing displaced underclass of people who are not trainable to handle more sophisticated jobs?

I believe that as technology is refined, a "slavery" of a different kind is created...the middle class becomes enslaved with the responsibilty and costs of "carrying" the lower class whose productivity has been greatly diminished by technology. I'm seeing happen now.

[Galahad]

Wilde hoped that eventually technology would become so efficient that the lower class would be freed from doing the tedious work and all humanity would live happily ever after singing Kumbaya.

Indeed, efficiency in technology has freed up people from doing tedious repetitive tasks.

But people are not created equal in skills/abilities. What do you do with a growing displaced underclass of people who are not trainable to handle more sophisticated jobs?

So while Wilde would rather see machines do all the scummy uninteresting work, you, and probably Adam Smith also, would prefer passing out shovels & quill pens and let the machinery idle.

Oscar Wilde's dream of creating a Shangri-La for EVERYONE is slowly but surely coming true, thank God.

HE IS THE GREATEST!

[Craig Read]

The media is still crying about the lack of jobs - and this is hurting the stock market - unnecessarily.

A better indication of job recovery is the misery index and household job surveys.

The so-called misery index -- the sum of the unemployment rate and the core inflation rate -- is currently lower than it has been for most of the past 35 years. It's a touch over 7% -- compared to a peak of over 20% in 1975 and again in the early 1980s. This is good news and the current 5.9 % US jobless rate is approaching full employment.

The household surveys indicate that 1.5 million jobs have been added in the past 18 months. [The Bureau of Labor Statistics' survey of 60,000 households uses a different methodology and showed an even greater gain, of 589,000 employed workers, last month. This survey recorded a four-month gain of 1.1 million employed workers and shows that total employment today is now higher than at the start of the recession.]

The job #'s from last week are based on payroll data - but as people contract, start up firms, and become self employed - a huge and massive shift - they fall off of the official employment stats.

So be aware when job #s are reported - they exclude non payroll job additions.

In general the job #s down south are stronger than official stats indicate.

[Derek]

Well i was watching the quotes and the Dow Jumped above 10000.

Hmm...Sounds like its doing just as the "golden clinton years"

[Craig Read]

Better. Up 35 % this year. Jobs on household surveys which are more accurate than the non farms payroll surveys are up 1.5 million in the last 18 months. Today 22.000 less are enrolled vs. Nov. on welfare. Corporate profits up 20 % year over year and productivity is surging ahead at 9 %.

Yep stupid Americans. Don't they know that Keynes and Demand management is the way to go !???