So who is your pick for the Liberals?

[Biblio Bibuli]

I'm going with Mr. Ignatieff because I'm onside with everything he is accused of doing wrong by the treasonous "Anybody But Ignatieff" crowd. So is yesterday's Liberal convention keynote speaker, Howard Dean, I'm sure.

I believe that Michael Ignatieff would make a great opposition to another brilliant man, Stephen Harper. And I also believe that these two true geniuses, respecting each other's superior intelligence, would bury the hatchets, and the usual axing of any ideas that come from the other camp would stop. They'd just bounce the ideas off of each other, and believing that two superior brains are better than one, they'd be extra confident in implementing them. Which camp is presently in charge would be the last thing on their minds ... because all they would worry about is what is good for Canada.

In other words, I have a vision that with these two in charge, Canada could become a political Shangri-la for others to strive towards ... in the not so distant future.

We can only hope.

[geoffrey]

Gerard Kennedy. He's the only candidate that has any focus on the economy, and bringing us into the 21st century with the way Canada does business. He's the only one that recognizes that small-business and investment in Canada are in a state of crisis.

I've heard NO economic discussion from any other candidate. In fact, I've heard nothing from the Iggy campaign at all. Perhaps it's because everytime he opens his mouth, he digs himself another hole?

Will Kennedy win? Maybe not, he's a bit of a longshot outside of Rae and Dion (I can promise Iggy won't win). His French is a liability... even though Dion's English isn't... again showing the Liberals ignorance of the reality of Canada.

If they elect Kennedy, then I see some real progress in the party. Electing Rae shows a turn towards the NDP in my opinion, and bring in Dion is a return to the typical Liberal way, nothing will change. They won't elect Iggy, he's already unpopular amongst the general population.

[August1991]

As much as I dislike Peter Newman, I liked his quote on CBC radio today.

Who will win the Liberal convention? Stephen Harper.

----

I still think they'll choose Dion.

Kennedy is not bilingual and it's unthinkable in the 21st century that the federal Liberal Party would choose a non bilingual leader. (The federal Liberal Party is completely invested in immersion programmes and the rest. Trudeau Jnr's endorsement means more for Trudeau Jnr than it does for Kennedy.)

Ignatieff will be the first federal candidate to get over 30% on the first ballot yet lose in the end. IOW, he has no growth potential. If a delegate wants Ignatieff as leader, they've already selected him. Ignatieff poses too many problems for the party now. Someone will have to move the Liberals right (and face reality) but it won't be Ignatieff.

Rae is a wild card and a wonderful well-spoken showman but Liberal delegates are just too pragmatic to pick him. (Incidentally, I've met and spoken to Rae. The guy is big-ego charming.)

So, the default is Dion. He's the Liberals' Liberal, thick and thin, and he'll maintain the tradition since Edward Blake and now over a century old.

With all that said, Harper's nation gambit was good for the country and may have an effect on the convention. Harper brought Dion down a notch and raised Ignatieff a bit. Rae got a nice boost on his own.

This one is still hard to call. Exceptionally, I'll turn on the TV tomorrow and watch the speeches - unless I decide to go down to the Palais des Congrès to see it live.

[apollo19]

I want either Kennedy or Ignatieff, but I don't really think either of them will win, and both are somewhat less than what I had hoped. Kennedy sounds like someone who is more focused on the economy, but from his race to be leader of the Ontario Liberals (where he was the "left" candidate), I'm not sure if I can believe it. Ignatieff really has no concrete plans, and he seems like a person who has intentionally taken ambiguous positions so that they can be changed on a whim. However, I'm interested in seeing where Ignatieff's support is coming from... Rae's seems to be from the Chretien side, and Dion's from the "old guard", but Ignatieff's allegiances aren't exactly clear. I do hope that, if he is chosen, he could change Canadian's views on things like tolls on highways and a carbon tax (while lowering income taxes).

[jdobbin]

I'm going with Mr. Ignatieff because I'm onside with everything he is accused of doing wrong by the treasonous "Anybody But Ignatieff" crowd. So is yesterday's Liberal convention keynote speaker, Howard Dean, I'm sure.

I believe that Michael Ignatieff would make a great opposition to another brilliant man, Stephen Harper. And I also believe that these two true geniuses, respecting each other's superior intelligence, would bury the hatchets, and the usual axing of any ideas that come from the other camp would stop. They'd just bounce the ideas off of each other, and believing that two superior brains are better than one, they'd be extra confident in implementing them. Which camp is presently in charge would be the last thing on their minds ... because all they would worry about is what is good for Canada.

My fear is that Ignatieff makes Harper look warm and cuddly in comparison.

Bob Rae is the better campaigner so this convention is important for many Liberals who need to see Ignatieff in action.

[jdobbin]

Gerard Kennedy. He's the only candidate that has any focus on the economy, and bringing us into the 21st century with the way Canada does business. He's the only one that recognizes that small-business and investment in Canada are in a state of crisis.

I've heard NO economic discussion from any other candidate. In fact, I've heard nothing from the Iggy campaign at all. Perhaps it's because everytime he opens his mouth, he digs himself another hole?

Will Kennedy win? Maybe not, he's a bit of a longshot outside of Rae and Dion (I can promise Iggy won't win). His French is a liability... even though Dion's English isn't... again showing the Liberals ignorance of the reality of Canada.

If they elect Kennedy, then I see some real progress in the party. Electing Rae shows a turn towards the NDP in my opinion, and bring in Dion is a return to the typical Liberal way, nothing will change. They won't elect Iggy, he's already unpopular amongst the general population.

I like Kennedy. I want to see him do well and I want to see him in Ottawa. This leadership campaign for him might be about tomorrow rather than today. However, you never know. With support from Dion, he could win.

[jdobbin]

As much as I dislike Peter Newman, I liked his quote on CBC radio today.

Who will win the Liberal convention? Stephen Harper.

----

I still think they'll choose Dion.

Given Harper's poll numbers lately, that would be a major accomplishment.

If Kennedy goes to Dion or vice versa, it could change momentum.

I wonder what Dion is like as a campaigner. He would need all the help of the other leadership candidates to win nationally.

[Biblio Bibuli]

I can promise Iggy won't win.

Ditto your Gerry!

Wanna bet him against my Iggy? I'll give you good odds.

Since we cannot bet real bucks how about if we bet our reputations. I'll bet you 99% of my reputation against 1% of your reputation. Is it a deal?

[August1991]

I like Kennedy. I want to see him do well and I want to see him in Ottawa. This leadership campaign for him might be about tomorrow rather than today. However, you never know. With support from Dion, he could win.

It's possible Dion could get dropped early but I don't think so. If it comes down to the top four, delegates will switch to Dion to keep him in the race - dropping Kennedy (or someone else) instead.

If and when that happens, it'll be interesting to see what Kennedy (or someone else) does. Does he endorse someone (change the pin on his lapel and cross the convention floor), or does he simply drop out? (I think he'll choose Dion, if he does but God knows... )

Anyway, I don't think it'll matter much.

Unlike the the Liberal leadership in 1968 and the Tory leadership in 1983 when the final ballot had three choices, this convention may go to a final ballot with only two choices: Dion vs. someone else.

Game theory can be fun but it's so simplistic compared to the real world. (BTW, I'm reading Flanagan's book. It's fun but silly.)

----

Piece of advice: Rent the DVD about Trudeau with Colm Feore. On the DVD, there's a great CBC documentary about the 1968 federal Liberal convention including Judy LaMarsh reaching across to Paul Hellyer yelling, "We've got to stop that bastard!". If Hellyer had listened, Robert Winters (who?) would have become Prime Minister and Pierre Trudeau would have gone down in Canadian history as just another Justice Minister, another Ernest Lapointe.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Exceptionally, I'll turn on the TV tomorrow and watch the speeches - unless I decide to go down to the Palais des Congrès to see it live.

If you do go ,,, say hi to Iggy for me, please!

And btw, could you please ask him ... if he is chosen ... to please change Canadians views on things like tolls on highways and a carbon tax (while lowering income taxes)?! THANX!

[gc1765]

I can promise Iggy won't win

I sure hope you're right...

Wanna bet him against my Iggy? I'll give you good odds.

Since we cannot bet real bucks how about if we bet our reputations. I'll bet you 99% of my reputation against 1% of your reputation. Is it a deal?

I'll bet you 1% of my reputation vs. 99% of your reputation that if the Liberals choose Iggy, they will loose the next election.

I'll also bet anyone that if Kennedy is chosen, the Liberals will win the next election.

[geoffrey]

August,

Your well-written in English, yet are from Quebec, I assume you've probably got the best grasp of both languages out of anyone here, so I ask your opinion. I speak and can write at an acceptable level of French and I find that Kennedy speaks better French than Dion does English at times.

What's your take? And what's a bigger market for the Liberals? A western leader that appeals to English Canada or a francophone leader that appeals to a shrinking minority of Quebecois hardline Federalists (though he may have lost that by supporting the motion)?

How will Kennedy's denouncement of Harper's motion affect the outcomes? I think it will raise his support in English Canada where the motion is greatly disliked.

[August1991]

Your well-written in English, yet are from Quebec, I assume you've probably got the best grasp of both languages out of anyone here, so I ask your opinion. I speak and can write at an acceptable level of French and I find that Kennedy speaks better French than Dion does English at times.

Quebec is an island like Japan.

Such is Canada, it is easier for Dion to speak accented English than for Kennedy to speak accented French.

Objectively? Kennedy's French is atrocious, incomprehensible. But he's cute, and a late baby-boomer with an accessible name in Quebec. He'll get some delegate votes. If his French were better, he'd be PM.

What's your take? And what's a bigger market for the Liberals? A western leader that appeals to English Canada or a francophone leader that appeals to a shrinking minority of Quebecois hardline Federalists (though he may have lost that by supporting the motion)?

Dion's accent works better in English Canada than Kennedy's non-existent French in Quebec. Even Rae and Ignatieff have a tough time in Quebec. A French accent in English sounds better than a German accent in Russian. (Fair? Such is life. You sound silly when you say rire.)

Trudeau's eyes were striking blue. Chretien and Martin had blue eyes. Rae, Dion and Kennedy too. Harper and Duceppe have clear blue eyes. Layton has blue eyes.

I'll go with eye colour. Ignatieff can't win, his eyes are brown.

---

Thread drift: Pay equity. Why do men earn more than women? Well, why do people with blue eyes earn more money than people with brown eyes? (They do.)

IOW, why do all four of our federal leaders have blue eyes? (Harper, Layton, Duceppe and Graham have blue eyes - the future Liberal leader too.)

BTW, blue eyes are as likely as left-handedness. I think society discriminates against brown-eyed people. The Supreme Court should interpret the equality section of the Charter to include eye-colour.

[geoffrey]

Thread drift: Pay equity. Why do men earn more than women? Well, why do people with blue eyes earn more money than people with brown eyes? (They do.)

IOW, why do all four of our federal leaders have blue eyes? (Harper, Layton, Duceppe and Graham have blue eyes - the future Liberal leader too.)

BTW, blue eyes are as likely as left-handedness. I think society discriminates against brown-eyed people. The Supreme Court should interpret the equality section of the Charter to include eye-colour.

What about green-eyed folks, where do we fit in?! Are you telling me I'll never be elected because of my eye colour? (I'd likely never run anyways... could you imagine?)

Do you not think the pay equity can be broken up on racial lines? Don't minorities have brown eyes more commonly, think blacks, arabs, hispanics... maybe it's their lack of success in our society that creates the difference. I think amongst white people, the difference in eye colour to income is minimal.

Maybe blue eyed people are more likely to hire blue eyed people, and apparently outnumber everyone in the white group?

Van Morrision wrote of brown eyes, Coldplay of green eyes, and Eric Clapton of blue eyes. Lots of coverage and inclusion there... though the brown and green eyes get a more upbeat tone than Claptons blue eyes blue.

[geoffrey]

That may not happen, because a backroom deal has been reached between Dion and Kennedy: that whoever is in third place after the second ballot will receive the support of the other.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

CTV is saying a deal has been struck between these two (I wonder what language they negotiated in), that gives them nearly 40% of support after the second ballot. That's an insurmountable wall, unless either Rae or Iggy go to each other, which I can't see happening whatsoever.

It will be Dion or Kennedy that wins, bottom line. So it's between August's prediction and mine. The English guy or the French guy? Why don't I have faith in the Liberals to pick the English guy?

I figure Rae will lend some of his votes to one or the other to push them into that third place spot, then the negoiations start on who will drop out from there, Rae or Kennedy/Dion.

Can Kennedy finish 3rd on the second ballot? He will finish 3rd on the first... he may also pick up some of the English Canada (especially Ontario) disinterested Iggy supporters. Iggy has no momentum and there is even talk of his delegates spoiling their first ballots. Who do English-Canada Iggy supporters go to? The obvious choice between Kennedy and Rae is Kennedy.

Hmmm....

So we'll know who's going to win by second ballot no matter how many need to be cast. The winner will be Kennedy or Dion, and I'm actually slightly more confident once having thought it through that Kennedy has a chance here.

[scribblet]

According to Warren Kinsella a lot of delegates havn't been able to make it for the registration process due to bad weather, some people are breaking down in tears. I guess this could make a big difference, too bad they don't have the one vote per member process - which btw they've turned down again.

[jdobbin]

According to Warren Kinsella a lot of delegates havn't been able to make it for the registration process due to bad weather, some people are breaking down in tears. I guess this could make a big difference, too bad they don't have the one vote per member process - which btw they've turned down again.

The one member, one vote has it's share of problems too.

Look at Alberta.

[geoffrey]

According to Warren Kinsella a lot of delegates havn't been able to make it for the registration process due to bad weather, some people are breaking down in tears. I guess this could make a big difference, too bad they don't have the one vote per member process - which btw they've turned down again.

Yup, it's a big problem. Hopefully it's not all Westerners that are highly supportive of Kennedy... though BC also holds alot of Rae delegates.

[Technocrat]

I am watching the Liberal convention with much interest as I am planning to get a little more politcally active by joining a party and see what actually happens as a grunt in a political party. Im not terribly tied to any ideology other then im fairly so-pro and fis-con. I would have joined the PC party if it was still in existance however the CPC just does not fit quite right. My only real alternative left is the Liberals... which is fine by me but im not a hell bent supporter of a party just for the parties sake.

My condition of joining the Liberals will be decided by who does not become leader. I flatly refuse to join the party under Iggy. IMHO Iggy should consider a carreer change to construction or mining, his real abilities seem to be in digging holes. I just plain cannot forsee the liberal party under Iggy forming a government. In fact an Iggy leadership win would prove to be a blessing to Harper.

Oddly enough I kindof hope that ol' Bob Rae wins. I still have some misgivings on him... his NDP past is both a pro & con IMHO he can bleed the NDP of some of their support (i absolutely can't stand Jack Layton) while appealing to the center & undecided voters. I think Bob could probably deliver a Liberal minority government in the spring by about 12-16 seats. If Iggy wins Harper will be back where he is in a years time.

Im still not quite sure what to think of Kennedy & Dion. I don't think either are quite there as far as leadership qualities however Dion does show some promise, however his english is a serious liability if he is going to win seats in the west and begs the question do we really want another prime minister from Quebec.

I think a Rae - Dion combo in the next federal election would be a powerhouse, perhaps enough to thoroughly trounce the CPC.

Im pretty sure Harper is hoping for a Iggy win... but thats just me... All i know is that this weekend shall be interesting.

BTW i shall post if i actually end up joining the liberals (& i won't turn into a crazy partisan hack<- i can't stand them)

[Figleaf]

And I also believe that these two true geniuses, ...

:puke:

[Canadian Blue]

If Kennedy were to win I'd consider supporting the Liberal party. My misgivings right now are more or less about senate and democratic reform, something which hasn't been dealt with. As for Dion, his english is atrocious, Iggy isn't even really a Canadian, he's been outside of the country for 30 years instead of actually contributing anything to Canada. Rae is a candidate who basically ruined a province, and may go down as one of the worst premiers of Ontario in the history of that province. I like Kennedy it seem's like he's actually passionate about this country, unlike the other candidates who seem like they simple want to take power for personal gain.

BTW Did anyone else notice that theirs a bunch of good looking women.

[Hydraboss]

I sincerely hope that Dion wins. A Liberal leader that sounds more french than Cretien (regardless of policies) should solidify the hatred for the party that is lying mostly dormant in the West.

Here comes Stephen's majority.

[Technocrat]

And I also believe that these two true geniuses, ...

:puke:

i second that motion.

[Rue]

August,

Your well-written in English, yet are from Quebec, I assume you've probably got the best grasp of both languages out of anyone here, so I ask your opinion. I speak and can write at an acceptable level of French and I find that Kennedy speaks better French than Dion does English at times.

What's your take? And what's a bigger market for the Liberals? A western leader that appeals to English Canada or a francophone leader that appeals to a shrinking minority of Quebecois hardline Federalists (though he may have lost that by supporting the motion)?

How will Kennedy's denouncement of Harper's motion affect the outcomes? I think it will raise his support in English Canada where the motion is greatly disliked.

Monsieur Geffrey, being a bilingual Torontonian former Montrealer I can assure you Stephane Dion speaks far superior English then Mr. Kennedy does French. Now bare with my useless take on this. With due respect to Mr. Kennedy he is a light weight. His sole credentials are running a food bank and he never completed a university. Now I know a lot of idiots graduate from university but his failing to complete it shows me someone who does not finish what he starts-just like how he walked out on his Ministry of Education without paying his dues as a provincial minister and barely having been elected as an MPP. This is a man who demonstrates he does not finish what he starts. It is a sign not of amibition, but immaturity and sorry it is a serious character flaw. I also think he does not have the experience to simply jump from a food bank director to the Prime Minister of a country. It is completely arrogant of him to think he can just run and is entitled to it without paying his dues and developing executive skills let alone say get a master's in business administration or some sort of technological degree to assist him with the expertise needed to run a government in this day and age. His inability to speak French is the least of his problems.

I believe Bob Rae has the backing of all the Chretien supporters and will suprise people and maybe even win but I think he would be a disaster. He would lose valuable seats in Ontario and has far too much baggage and has shown quite clearly what he is- a rich boy intellect with soft hands out of touch with how the real world works-he's great as an opposition critic but a disaster as a leader as he proved when he refused to take anyone's advise and made a disaster out of Ontario. Sorry as far as I am concerned its not good enough to smile like a goof and tell everyone you WERE a loser but since you were a loser you now won't be one. And another thing-the man needs braces to fix that oevr-bite. He looks like Bugs Bunny. At least Gerard Kennedy has a good smile.

O.k. so that leaves us with who? Iggnatieff? Oh please. The man has proven he is the largest twat to come to Ottawa that ever was a twat and I use the word twat because I borrowed the letters from Ottawa.

Why is he a twat you ask? Well how can you ask? What has he done that would indicate anything other then being a large twat. The flip flop on Israel and Lebanon, the sheer idiocy of trying to reopen the constitutional debate simply to try get Quebec votes, his arrogant behaviour including walking right by Jean Augustine yesterday at the convention as if she did not exist (this is the mp who vacated her seat to let this jack-ass run) and his complete lack of experience in the real world. I mean why would anyone think a man who has been out of Canada for 30 years and whose sole experience comes from lecturing in an antiseptic artificial environment like Harvard, believe he belongs in the real world. What could this rich boy intellect possibly understand about the common person saddled with taxes. Just what we need-another elitist invory tower

wat. Thanks but he is a complete disaster loser.

Stephane Dion? He is my reluctant choice if I had to pick someone on the final ballot. His English is not as bad as you think. He has a Ph.d in Sociology which is as useful as Iggy's Ph.d in Human Rights-mroe ivory tower b.s. but he has a brilliant mind, has proven he can handle complex ministries and policy issues and he is the only candidate who truly grasps the inter-governmental issues and environmental ones. He is also someone who is similiar to Stephen Harper in that he is not one of those politicians who feels phony enough to b.s. the press or small talk and smile through his teeth.

His major weakness is he is brittle-he gets angered too easily when questioned but he is respected internationally.

I honestly think of all the people debating Harper from the Liberals Dione is the most capable. Harper will laugh off Ignatieff as an inexperienced intellect, laugh off Rae as the loser from Ontario, laugh off Kennedy as the boy who never finishes what he starts - and with Dione will only be able to go after him over being a Chretien loyalist but come up very weak when it comes to the environment which I believe concerns many Canadians.

That said I think the most decent is Ken Dryden. The problem is he is so long winded a Parliamentary session would never come to an end and he would never be able to make a decision and he is awful fat these days.

So there you have it.

And please, anyone who says Justin Trudeau is cute and should run I will track you down and force you to listen to Celine Dion singing the Air Canada song over and over until you die.

[Hydraboss]

Rue, I wish you would just tell us how you really feel.