Alberta Leadership Race

White Doors · November 29, 2006

Once people start telling me to be afraid of one candidate, the more likely I am to vote for the 'scary' candidate.

kimmy · November 29, 2006

And almost less important than royalty review is the urgent need to have bitumen upgrading and oil refining remain in Alberta. Stelmach supports this.....

Didn't Dinning give a speech about wanting to make Alberta the #1 value-adding jurisdiction on earth or something like that? While I realize that this sort of talk tends to be mostly hot air, I'd assume that talk of resource-processing would have to be a large component of any hot air about value-adding in Alberta.

(I'm sure there's a better phrase than "value adding", but darned if I can think of it right now.)

-k

August1991 · November 29, 2006

And almost less important than royalty review is the urgent need to have bitumen upgrading and oil refining remain in Alberta. Stelmach supports this.....

In a province where the unemployment rate is basically zero, and people seem to want to diversify, it seems odd to me create more demand for workers by building an oil refinery.

If private business can make a profit, then let them. But the provincial government shouldn't get involved.

----

Geoffrey, your comments about Norway and natural gas are well taken but you avoid the main question: are Albertan resource royalties too low? There is good reason to believe that the Albertan government deliberately sets them low so that many small oil & gas companies can get a piece of the action. This is wasteful and is also unfair to Albertans who in fact "own" the resource.

Maybe if the Albertan government collected royalties more accurately, it could afford the several hundred million to build a four-lane highway to Fort McMurray. (On a side note, could such a road be built privately and run as a toll-road?)

Canadian Blue · November 29, 2006

I think whoever said Morton would turn Alberta into Alabama has really shown his/hers true colours. Really Morton isn't nearly as socially conservative as some would think, and he is right wing, but at best he would be considered an old school Reformer. Something which Albertan's voted largely in favour of.

I have a feeling the race may come between Stelmach and Morton. I don't think Dinning has much room to grow, and either way I doubt people in Morton's camp would put Dinning as second choice, and the same goes with Stelmach's.

jdobbin · November 29, 2006

Once people start telling me to be afraid of one candidate, the more likely I am to vote for the 'scary' candidate.

That's true. Look at all the people who voted for Hitler.

Canadian Blue · November 30, 2006

That's true. Look at all the people who voted for Hitler.

Aw, theirs nothing like cheapening debate by using an obscure Hitler/Nazi/Fascist reference in order to discredit another person.

When fascism comes to North America, it will come in the name of anti-fascism.

Jerry J. Fortin · November 30, 2006

What ever happens the PC party is being split between those who want change and those who want the status quo. Meanwhile the dinosaur party hasn't figured out yet that there is far more non-Tories in this province thean ther is Tories. The way the math works out Albertans want change. So supporting Dinning isn't really bright and that is why I think Dinning will win, because the average Tory isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer. They haven't figured it out yet, nor do I think that they will.

fellowtraveller · November 30, 2006

And almost less important than royalty review is the urgent need to have bitumen upgrading and oil refining remain in Alberta. Stelmach supports this.....
In a province where the unemployment rate is basically zero, and people seem to want to diversify, it seems odd to me create more demand for workers by building an oil refinery.
If private business can make a profit, then let them. But the provincial government shouldn't get involved.

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Dunno what you're on about here. I never said the Alberta Government should develop anything. But they should very much get involved in making certain that the maximum value for this resource accrues to Alberta and Canada. Of course Alberta wants to diversify, so what exactly is your objection to diversifying into upgrading, refining into oil, developing petrochemical feedstocks, building associtaed plastic industries...? The private sector is welcome to a reasonable return on investment., but they have no entitlement to anything else.

But we can and should insist that anybody extracting bitumen should also be processing much of it here. I'd much rather offer high quality jobs to unemployed in Chicoutomi or Fredericton than to workers in Dallas or Chicago which is exactly what is happening right now, the Encana sellout being a recent example.

B. Max · November 30, 2006

So it's obvious we have some leeway. An increase in royalty rates (why not tie royalties to prices so that companies aren't getting a free ride during times like this, but won't get screwed if the price drops?) won't neccesarily turn us into Saskatchewan (bonus question: did the flight of the oil industry in SK. tie to royalty rates?)

I don't think it's obvious at all. Nor can you compare one country with another, or conventional oil with oil sands. With conventional oil the flow rates of different wells in different countries makes a huge difference. Even in Alberta their are fields that oil companies won't drill in anymore or produce them because it's not worth it. Oil sands have many years of huge capital cost before you produce the first barrel of oil that's why their rate is lower until they recover their start up costs. The ones who started to make the fuss are the pembina institute, a left wing tree huger outfit who wants to stop the oil sands plants. In fact they are the ones who want to shut down all of the boreal forest to mining logging and all oil and gas.

Black Dog · December 1, 2006

I don't think it's obvious at all. Nor can you compare one country with another, or conventional oil with oil sands. With conventional oil the flow rates of different wells in different countries makes a huge difference.

Does that apply to Saskatchewan as well, then?

Even in Alberta their are fields that oil companies won't drill in anymore or produce them because it's not worth it. Oil sands have many years of huge capital cost before you produce the first barrel of oil that's why their rate is lower until they recover their start up costs.

Companies are queing up for a chance to dip their wicks in the oilsands, so it doesn't seem like the high up front costs are that much of a deterrent. Also, I'm not sure start up costs are that big a concern these days: the oil sands are maturing and much of the infrastructure is in place, which defrays some of that initial cost.

The ones who started to make the fuss are the pembina institute, a left wing tree huger outfit who wants to stop the oil sands plants. In fact they are the ones who want to shut down all of the boreal forest to mining logging and all oil and gas.

So? Doesn't mean their math is wrong.

In spite of record oil prices, record oil sands production and record profits for oil companies, the royalty return to Albertans for each barrel of oil sands oil declined by 32% between 1996 and 2005.

geoffrey · December 1, 2006

Didn't Dinning give a speech about wanting to make Alberta the #1 value-adding jurisdiction on earth or something like that? While I realize that this sort of talk tends to be mostly hot air, I'd assume that talk of resource-processing would have to be a large component of any hot air about value-adding in Alberta.
(I'm sure there's a better phrase than "value adding", but darned if I can think of it right now.)

-k

Sure, heres the better phrase, GDP. GDP is the total value added in a jurisdiction. Alberta already has pretty close to the highest GDP per capita in the world, it wouldn't be hard for any leader to bump it up a little more with some economic stimulation.

When the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates next quarter to further hurt Alberta and benefit the RoC, that'll boost our GDP to possibly the highest in the world, if we aren't there already.

Then again, it will come with further stretching our labour force (Easterners still refuse to remove despite the housing cool off), and our infrastructure.

If the BoC cuts rates, then the Federal government needs to adjust legislation to force unemployed out of provincers to move here to help out. It's a serious problem with Albertan and Canadian productivity to have people not working.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

Companies are queing up for a chance to dip their wicks in the oilsands, so it doesn't seem like the high up front costs are that much of a deterrent. Also, I'm not sure start up costs are that big a concern these days: the oil sands are maturing and much of the infrastructure is in place, which defrays some of that initial cost.

Yes they are, and that is because the royaltiy rates are lower until an oilsands plant has recovered its building costs. After that the royality rate goes up. Well of course the costs are a concern. Each plant has the same building costs. There is nothing in place. Each plant starts from scratch. Just what infrastructure is in place on chuck of land that is covered with bush. They're looking at around three to five billion and three or four years of construction to build a plant depending on its size, before it produces the first barrel of oil.

Hydraboss · December 1, 2006

Meanwhile, back to the leadership race......

Did anyone else watch the leader's debate last night? Talk about deja vu of the last federal leader's debate.

My thoughts:

Ed Stelmach - Lots of wind without saying anything. Wants provincial taxpayers to give the teachers the employee portion of the unpaid pension liability. Disgusting. Why would he play to the teachers in this province, who most likely aren't PC's anyway? Nice guy, but confused. Would probably make a good Minor Minister in Charge of Something. aka Jack Layton.

Ted Morton - Over the top showmanship trying to prove that he is "grassroots". Called the female reporter's question "goofy" (quite funny actually). Likes his right wing agenda, and believes in killing the transfer payment theft to Ottawa. Heavy on the retoric. aka Stephen Harper.

Jim Dinning - Promises that he will promise those things that Albertans want him to promise. And you can take that to the bank. States that Alberta should be doing more for Canada (transfers?) and won't allow private health providers. Probably doesn't even know where rural Alberta is. Keeps going for the Ted Morton is scary, scary, scary, and actually used the lines "Who will speak for Alberta?" and "Choose your Alberta". aka Paul Martin.

I think I'll go vote for Morton.

And then I'll have a bunch of beer.

And maybe some popcorn.

Edit: I know it's a little off topic, but I had to throw it in.

geoffrey · December 1, 2006

I think I'm supporting Morton as well, with Dinning as my second choice. Weird combo, but Stelmach is actually as useless as it gets. Down to Earth nice guys don't get much done in power, or in defense from Ottawa in case Rae or Iggy or Dion come knocking with their carbon taxes and Alberta revenue pillaging.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

I think I'm supporting Morton as well, with Dinning as my second choice. Weird combo, but Stelmach is actually as useless as it gets. Down to Earth nice guys don't get much done in power, or in defense from Ottawa in case Rae or Iggy or Dion come knocking with their carbon taxes and Alberta revenue pillaging.

You better re think that. Dinning is a federal liberal. I will be voting for Morton, and Stelmack as a second. Not that I think Stelmack is all that great, but I see him as doing less damge or perhaps none.

jdobbin · December 1, 2006

You better re think that. Dinning is a federal liberal. I will be voting for Morton, and Stelmack as a second. Not that I think Stelmack is all that great, but I see him as doing less damge or perhaps none.

Did you put that little ad together by yourself?

Black Dog · December 1, 2006

Me and the gf have been kicking around the idea of a move out of the province we were both born and bred in. A Morton win would seal the deal. This province has been run by the rural minority for the rural minority for long enough, and the last thing we need is another premier with no plan on how to address the troubles of 21st century Alberta. Go Dinning.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

You better re think that. Dinning is a federal liberal. I will be voting for Morton, and Stelmack as a second. Not that I think Stelmack is all that great, but I see him as doing less damge or perhaps none.

Did you put that little ad together by yourself?

No I had nothing to do with it. Nor did I have anything to do with Annie get your guns kiss of death.

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/archives/000725.html

Black Dog · December 1, 2006

No I had nothing to do with it. Nor did I have anything to do with Annie get your guns kiss of death.
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/archives/000725.html

oooh a scary liberal! Oooh! If U vote Dinning then Jean Poutine will totally steel yr guns and make you marry another d00d.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

Me and the gf have been kicking around the idea of a move out of the province we were both born and bred in. A Morton win would seal the deal. This province has been run by the rural minority for the rural minority for long enough, and the last thing we need is another premier with no plan on how to address the troubles of 21st century Alberta. Go Dinning.

What nonsense. I remember after the last provincial election some urban leftist from Edmonton on the Rutherford show saying the same type of thing. He was all ready to leave also if the government didn't raid the oil companies with taxes and create government jobs for him and his ilk. A government job doing what, I don't know. Probably didn't matter, they just wanted the money. The guy made it quite clear he wouldn't work for an oil company. The translation is, he had no intentions of working at a real job that creates wealth, he wanted the wealth. On the other hand the cities have done well as a result of the oil boom. Servicing the oil sector with all the materials it needs. The growth in the cities is the proof of that.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

No I had nothing to do with it. Nor did I have anything to do with Annie get your guns kiss of death.
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/archives/000725.html

oooh a scary liberal! Oooh! If U vote Dinning then Jean Poutine will totally steel yr guns and make you marry another d00d.

and a dingbat to boot.

Black Dog · December 1, 2006

What nonsense. I remember after the last provincial election some urban leftist from Edmonton on the Rutherford show saying the same type of thing. He was all ready to leave also if the government didn't raid the oil companies with taxes and create government jobs for him and his ilk. A government job doing what, I don't know. Probably didn't matter, they just wanted the money. The guy made it quite clear he wouldn't work for an oil company. The translation is, he had no intentions of working at a real job that creates wealth, he wanted the wealth.

Oh well, since it came from such a solid source as talk radio... :rolleyes:

On the other hand the cities have done well as a result of the oil boom. Servicing the oil sector with all the materials it needs. The growth in the cities is the proof of that.

Yeah? The crumbling infastructure? The rising problems of crime and addiction? The strain on the health system? The sky-high housing prices? The labour shortages? What have the cities gotten from this, exactly?

"Growth" does not equate "good."

and a dingbat to boot.

Hey, I'm saying Morton is a bad choice because of his shitty ideas. You're saying Dinning is a bad choice because of the company he keeps. That's batty.

Hydraboss · December 1, 2006

Very true.

If you're going to pick on Dinning, do it because of his shitty ideas.

Black Dog · December 1, 2006

Very true.
If you're going to pick on Dinning, do it because of his shitty ideas.

Exactly.

B. Max · December 1, 2006

Hey, I'm saying Morton is a bad choice because of his shitty ideas. You're saying Dinning is a bad choice because of the company he keeps. That's batty.

What bad ideas. On the other hand Dinning is just another song and dance man for the federal liberals. Who would sell Albertans down the road to Ottawa at the drop of a hat.