Support for Harper Government dropping

[gerryhatrick]

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Lower Support for Harper Government in Canada

September 26, 2006

- Fewer Canadians are satisfied with their federal administration, according to a poll by The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 57 per cent of respondents approve of the Conservative government, down 10 points since July.

Polling Data

As you probably know, it’s been almost eight months since Stephen Harper and the Conservatives formed the government of Canada. Overall, how would you judge their performance in that period of time? Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job they have done?

.....................Sept. .. Jul. 2006

Approve..........57% 67%

Disapprove.....34% 27%

Not sure..........8% 6%

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/13280

Canadians are catching on.

[Charles Anthony]

Canadians are catching on.

Yeah, we are going to have an other Liberal majority and eveybody will return to la-la-land and live happily ever after.

THE END

[watching&waiting]

Now lets see what the polls will have to say after the news today about debt reduction and also saving 1.1billion is government spending this yera and another Billion is expected for next year. Mean while the Libs are too busy showing Canadians that even there leadership hopefuls are corrupt as the party has always been. Yup Volpe is doing great work for the party now is he not? The Italian Canadians are really going to like the libs this time round.

So since you like polls wait for those to come out. But the CPC does not govern by the polls or have you not noticed that. They tend to do what is right not just what is popular, and when the time comes for election we will see just how that makes the Canadian voter think and cast their votes. But that time may be way off because even if the libs have a new leader it probably will take a year or more for him to unite the party before any vote to bring down the house goes.

[Cameron]

Telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults

My god...that is a lot of people....

[geoffrey]

Canadians are catching on.

Even if the polls prove true, without corresponding Liberal stats it means nothing. Sure people might not like the Conservatives (who likes politicians), but they could easily dislike the Liberals more. That stat is truly about as meaningless as it gets.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Even if the polls prove true, without corresponding Liberal stats it means nothing. Sure people might not like the Conservatives (who likes politicians), but they could easily dislike the Liberals more. That stat is truly about as meaningless as it gets.

You gotta consider the source.

[geoffrey]

Even if the polls prove true, without corresponding Liberal stats it means nothing. Sure people might not like the Conservatives (who likes politicians), but they could easily dislike the Liberals more. That stat is truly about as meaningless as it gets.

You gotta consider the source.

Angus Reid is generally reasonably close.

[gc1765]

Canadians are catching on.

Even if the polls prove true, without corresponding Liberal stats it means nothing. Sure people might not like the Conservatives (who likes politicians), but they could easily dislike the Liberals more. That stat is truly about as meaningless as it gets.

I think it's more important to compare the statistics over time, from July to September (assuming they are accurate). Assuming that people's impressions of the liberals have not dropped the way the conservatives have in the last two months, support for conservatives seems to be decreasing, and it's likely that at least some of those who now disapprove of the government may change their vote. It probably doesn't give as good of an indication as an actual poll on which party a person favours, true, but it shows a general trend.

[geoffrey]

I disagree QC. The CPC never had 60% of the popular vote. It maybe that 10% now thinks less of them, but 5% could now think much more highly and now they are way over majority territory.

The one thing I dislike and distrust more than the media is polling companies. People put way too much into the results, but when you read between the lines, many polls don't really show anything.

[gerryhatrick]

Telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults

My god...that is a lot of people....

Your sarcasm tells me you're not familiar with the science behind polling. It's quite accurate, within the margins.

[gc1765]

The one thing I dislike and distrust more than the media is polling companies. People put way too much into the results, but when you read between the lines, many polls don't really show anything.

I agree with you there. I think most polls show general results but are not very accurate. For example, before the 2006 election, the polls predicted the conservatives would win. But, some polls had support as high as 41 or 42 percent for the conservatives, when they only got 36 percent. Not extremely accurate in my opinion (though, to their credit SES poll was extremely accurate in their prediction...heck they're still bragging about it on their website).

[Leader Circle]

Telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults

My god...that is a lot of people....

Your sarcasm tells me you're not familiar with the science behind polling. It's quite accurate, within the margins.

Well, if you are right, what do you think of these stats?

Date CPC Lib NDP Bloc Green

Ekos

18/09/2006 39 29 17 8 7

Strategic

17/09/2006 35 26 19 12 8

Decima

04/09/2006 34 30 14 11 10

Decima

28/08/2006 33 28 19 10

Ipsos-Reid

24/08/2006 38 29 17 10 5

SES

23/08/2006 36 30 18 11 5

Decima

13/08/2006 36 29 15 10

Decima

31/07/2006 32 31 16 11 8

Decima

24/07/2006 36 30 17 10 5

Environics

23/07/2006 36 30 18 11 5

Decima

18/06/2006 38 28 19 10

Strategic

08/06/2006 36 27 19 9 9

Linky Dinky

[gerryhatrick]

Telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults

My god...that is a lot of people....

Your sarcasm tells me you're not familiar with the science behind polling. It's quite accurate, within the margins.

Well, if you are right, what do you think of these stats?

Your post does not dispute what I said.

[Leader Circle]

Telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults

My god...that is a lot of people....

Your sarcasm tells me you're not familiar with the science behind polling. It's quite accurate, within the margins.

Well, if you are right, what do you think of these stats?

Your post does not dispute what I said.

Well it does not support your dim belief in the crashing support for the CPC. it seems if they are on the climb....enlightened?? Have they saw the light or is Volpe just another example of idiots in politics?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Your post does not dispute what I said.

It does dispute what you said in the OP.

Man Gerry, it must be tough to be as obstinate as you stay in spite of mounds of evidence proving you wrong.

[geoffrey]

Your post does not dispute what I said.

It does dispute what you said in the OP.

Man Gerry, it must be tough to be as obstinate as you stay in spite of mounds of evidence proving you wrong.

Yup, a difference in numbers from 33%-39% is a considerable difference. All do show the Liberals in very poor position to take government back though, especially with all the media attention lately.

[jdobbin]

Now lets see what the polls will have to say after the news today about debt reduction and also saving 1.1billion is government spending this yera and another Billion is expected for next year. Mean while the Libs are too busy showing Canadians that even there leadership hopefuls are corrupt as the party has always been. Yup Volpe is doing great work for the party now is he not? The Italian Canadians are really going to like the libs this time round.

I don't mind cuts into budgets as long as they were considered. I am concerned that cuts were made here without any consultation at all.

I think they could cut have cut $1 billion in export support for AECL.

[geoffrey]

I think they could cut have cut $1 billion in export support for AECL.

Agreed. That's a whoping $30 per person, snip snip snip. Those $30's are going to add up though.

[MSH]

.....................Sept. .. Jul. 2006

Approve..........57% 67%

Disapprove.....34% 27%

Not sure..........8% 6%

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/13280

Canadians are catching on.

I don't quite see the significance of this poll in terms of electoral success. First of all, the approval rating may have dropped but is still over 50%, which is better than the situation past gov'ts have had to contend with (I think Mulroney was in the tank at one point in his first term but came back to win a sizeable majority later on). Second, there is no mention of the approval ratings for any other parties. What about the Liberal approval rating? The CPC could have dropped twice as many points and they'd still be in a winning position if the Liberals were to have an approval rating of say, 30 percent.

What matters most is VOTER PREFERENCE...which can be who is "the least bad". An Ekos poll from the same period has shown that the Conservatives have started to regain some strength--they command a 10 percent lead--same as the last Ekos poll just before the election. Furthermore the absoute percentage has increased by 2 percent for the Conservatives--barely statistically significant but something to watch.

I'd say that although the Conservatives suffer a frustrating lack of positive momentum that there has been absolutely no sign that the Liberals have made headway at all either. If the election was today they'd still lose to the Conservatives (and it'd still be a minority). What little momentum there is, though , seems to be with the gov't.

Then there are current events to consider. Since the poll was completed Afghanistan has been pushed off the front page, the finance minister has announced surprisingly strong news on the budget surplus, the softwood debate has gone dormant since its ratification in parliament is a forgone conclusion now and so on. Meanwhile, the Liberal leadership campaign has turned negative, with some candidates dropping out, accusations of membership recruitment fraud and funding irregularities. The CPC is looking comparitively better with each passing day.

Contrast this to the Liberal's situation: there is no longer one clear frontrunner in the race, with Rae matching Ignatief's lead. Not only that, but neither candidate has an established record with the Liberal party nor much experience in federal politics in any capacity. The Liberal party's finances are a complete mess. They have no established policies or even general agreement on the most basic and important issues of the day--for example, the only cohesive opposition to the gov'ts foreign policy and Afghanistan mission came from the NDP and BQ, and the Liberals have never been able to convey a clear position on the issue. It's almost like Liberal MPs don't know what to stand for until there is a leader to tell them what to stand for. The voters might not like all of the CPCs policies but they really can't stomach indeciciveness and uncertainty. If anyone should know this it should be the Liberals as they built whole election campaigns on instilling uncertainty about the CPC/CA/Ref and capitalising on the opponent's indecicive response.

Things look pretty dire for the Liberals right now, despite any news you can spin to show otherwise. For some reason pundits seem to ignore a fairly consistent pattern in political polls--there is not much meaningful movement mid-election and nothing meaningful truly happens until the writ is dropped. In the last election it was the LIBERALS with a commanding lead, and pundits weren't debating who would win--it was whether the Liberals could improve their support enough to regain a majority. During the campaign voter preference turned exactly upside-down, and it all happened after the writ was dropped. Prior to that momentum was not really there for any party. And this reversal happened when the Liberals were in a much better position--they had an established leader, they were unified (or gave that appearance anyways), they had experience and voters were very familiar and comfortable with them (albeit rather tired of the same old thing).

Quote all the polls you want, but don't be disappointed when your delusions don't prove to be true. The Liberals have no experienced leader, no proper platform, no money and have lost their organisation. Pulling off a reversal like the Conservatives did last time would be a miracle and even most Liberal insiders think it'll take another term in opposition before they can finish regrouping and be ready to govern again.

[gerryhatrick]

Then there are current events to consider. Since the poll was completed Afghanistan has been pushed off the front page, the finance minister has announced surprisingly strong news on the budget surplus, the softwood debate has gone dormant since its ratification in parliament is a forgone conclusion now and so on. Meanwhile, the Liberal leadership campaign has turned negative, with some candidates dropping out, accusations of membership recruitment fraud and funding irregularities. The CPC is looking comparitively better with each passing day.

1. Afthanistan is still very much in the forefront of Canadian conciousness...AND the front page.

2. The budget surplus is pretty much expected in this Country now. They've been happening for years.

3. The softwood deal is a sore spot for many Conservatives at my workplace. Many people feel like the money left on the table was a sell out.

4. The leadership campaign is not negative that I've noticed...there's a couple of anomalies that would be expected in any leadership campaign, and it's nothing that will stick in peoples minds. It's not significant after a leader is chosen.

The poll reflects a general dissillusionment that's setting in on Harper, IMO.

[Ricki Bobbi]

3. The softwood deal is a sore spot for many Conservatives at my workplace. Many people feel like the money left on the table was a sell out.

Your workplace. Sure Gerry.

[gerryhatrick]

3. The softwood deal is a sore spot for many Conservatives at my workplace. Many people feel like the money left on the table was a sell out.

Your workplace. Sure Gerry.

What is your main malfunction darlin'?

I work in an office...cube environment. Lots of right of center types. We were talking about it today...this guy who routinely tells me there is no global warming was fuming about the softwood lumber issue after a meeting. He couldn't believe that we were winning the litigation...even just recently a major win....and yet we're letting them keep over a Billion of our cash.

Sorry Ricki, your boss lost a few on that one.