Canadian Political Polls

August1991 · February 9, 2007

BayLee, you can spin this as you want. I could argue that Dion is not getting any honeymoon or post-convention boost either. On the contrary, it seems that - as they're saying in Quebec - English Canada is coming to the same conclusion about Dion that French Canadians knew before. He's even less charismatic and less agile than Harper.

Then again, Dion is not really a new face in Canadian federal politics. He's been around for over 10 years. Ignatieff or even Rae or Kennedy would have been a new face.

Up 8% in Quebec? That's a dangerous number. I'd be careful Mr. Duceppe, your going to be out of a job soon.

Looking at both polls, this is the real story. The BQ is not doing well in Quebec.

Duceppe will not be leader of the Bloc after the next election. In fact, he may turn up as PQ leader this time next year (although I think that would be a mistake for the PQ).

The situation in Quebec both federally and "nationally" is interesting now. The CPC is a more robust version of the ADQ and the Quebec Liberal Party is a more robust version of the LPC. And the weakened Bloc is about par with the PQ.

jdobbin · February 9, 2007

Looking at both polls, this is the real story. The BQ is not doing well in Quebec.
Duceppe will not be leader of the Bloc after the next election. In fact, he may turn up as PQ leader this time next year (although I think that would be a mistake for the PQ).

The situation in Quebec both federally and "nationally" is interesting now. The CPC is a more robust version of the ADQ and the Quebec Liberal Party is a more robust version of the LPC. And the weakened Bloc is about par with the PQ.

What is the Quebec press saying about the latest polls? Any comments from the BQ? You barely here anything from them anymore.

BayLee · February 9, 2007

There is no sspin at all.

The fact of the matter is Harper barley won a small minority when ADSCAM was all over the news. 34% of the vote

The man has been PM for a year now treying to convinceeveryone he/they are so much better than the LIBS are/were and yet he still is unable to get more support than the LIBS.

Even Harper himself is saying an election soon would produce another minority.

Thank God right wing thinking people are a small minority in this country

Catchme · February 10, 2007

The CPC stayed the same in ON, there were NO gains, I do not know where you got that from even. So there are no seat gains possible there with no change in the polls. The fact they can make no gains says much. Again the seats are theirs to lose. Harper's throwing away Turner's riding because of his control issues has severely damaged the CPC in ON. A one seat loss is 1 too many.

Umm... the Liberals dropped 6%.

Ummm, no the Liberals have not dropped at all according to th SES poll we are discussing.

The SES poll stats are again listed above, and I had the results listed in the post you first responded to. In fact, you used the regional breakdown stats from that link. But now you are trying to say the SES polls shows Liberals down when it does not.

So, of course you are using Legier's for your stated Liberal decrease, and the SES regional breakdown to try and support you analysis. So sorry, but the SES poll showo no Liberal decrease, it shows a gain, and the CPC down 1%. Moreover you cannot combine 2 polls and make a case. AS such, I won't even bother with your riding breakdown, as it is all based upon an erroneous premise that the Liberals have gone down in the polls while the CPC have gone up.

Legier has shown NO accuracy at all in their polls, unlike SES who have been almost 99% accurate in the last 2 elections and the lead into them.

Canadian Blue · February 10, 2007

So what you're saying is the election could go either way right. I think it'll be an interesting election the next time around, but I have a feeling it will only result in either another Liberal minority, or a Conservative minority.

August1991 · February 10, 2007

What is the Quebec press saying about the latest polls? Any comments from the BQ? You barely here anything from them anymore.

I didn't buy the paper today but listening to the (radio) news, I didn't hear anything. A quick look of blogs/forums on the Internet confirms what I think.

This is a federal poll and federal politics in Quebec are a bit like American politics in English Canada - followed but not of primary interest. A Quebec poll, Charest v. Boislclair, with a +1000 sample in Quebec, will be front page news.

Nationalists in Quebec explain these results by saying that the incompetence of the Bloc is driving people to choose the CPC (or even PLC) just like the incompetence of the PQ is driving people to vote ADQ (or even PLQ).

jbg · February 10, 2007

I might have to revise my prediction that there will be no Spring 2007 election. With numbers like this, it must be awfully tempting for Harper to go for his majority. This might explain Harper's bolshie behaviour recently. I bet Dion's personal numbers are not great.
If the Tories break 40 in a poll or two, forget Harper, the Tory caucus will be clamping at the bit.

Isn't it true that a minority government cannot "advise" the GG to call an election, but must be defeated in a confidence motion or vote on money bill?

jdobbin · February 10, 2007

Isn't it true that a minority government cannot "advise" the GG to call an election, but must be defeated in a confidence motion or vote on money bill?

No.

geoffrey · February 10, 2007

Umm... the Liberals dropped 6%.

Ummm, no the Liberals have not dropped at all according to th SES poll we are discussing.

In Ontario, where I showed the seats that are going to change, the Liberals dropped 6%. I really have little more patience to deal with people that can't read the things they post and then condemn me for bringing up facts in their postings. Between you and PolyNewb I'm having trouble seeing who's worse.

Here is the link for you: http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W07-T215.pdf

So either your being facetious, or your an idiot.

Grade 1 math here CatchMe... 44-38= A DROP OF 6%!!!!!!

Catchme · February 10, 2007

geoffery, you are correct, the Liberals do show a decrease in ON of a 6% bleeding to the NDP and Greens, but not to the CPC. Which is the point I was making, there were NO CPC increases in ON. The CPC are not picking up steam any where. The Liberals have gained across Canada while the CPC have not.

However, I am going to go back then and look at your ON breakdowns and give serious consideration of them as I do not believe the stat bleeds to the NDP and Greens can even be considered to be favourable to the CPC. If it even holds and does not return to the Liberals, the CPC have gained nothing.

Martin Chriton · February 10, 2007

geoffery, you are correct, the Liberals do show a decrease in ON of a 6% bleeding to the NDP and Greens, but not to the CPC. Which is the point I was making, there were NO CPC increases in ON. The CPC are not picking up steam any where. The Liberals have gained across Canada while the CPC have not.
However, I am going to go back then and look at your ON breakdowns and give serious consideration of them as I do not believe the stat bleeds to the NDP and Greens can even be considered to be favourable to the CPC. If it even holds and does not return to the Liberals, the CPC have gained nothing.

You're not too bright are you? Why don't you read his post. LOL

Catchme · February 10, 2007

The CPC stayed the same in ON...The fact they can make no gains says much. Again the seats are theirs to lose. Harper's throwing away Turner's riding because of his control issues has severely damaged the CPC in ON. A one seat loss is 1 too many.

So I identified 7 possible wins with ~6% Liberal drop... and another 7 into play ridings with the Liberals losing that support.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2006/default.html

No, actually you identified 4 as you conceded 2 were still safe to the Liberals and 1 Welland would go to the NDP.

Thunder Bay Rainy River, would go NDP, as they are the closest contender to the Liberals, and the NDP has increased at Liberal expense NDP +3 in this area and the Liberals –3 would most certainly give the NDP the riding.

No, London West, could change hands with a 6% Liberal decrease in this area. But remember it is the Greens and NDP who benefit from the Liberal bleed NOT the CPC. And the CPC did well because of whom they ran IMV.

Now Huron Bruce could go CPC with a 1% spread between CPC and Liberals. However again, the CPC has made no gains in Ontario so there is no suggestion that this seat would change hands.

London North Centre, will not go CPC either considering the resent by-election results, not much would change. Again the bleed off from the Liberals went to NDP and the Greens NOT the CPC

Kitchner Centre - Excuse me but again there is a 11% spread between Libs and CPC here. This seat would most definitely remain Liberal.

Kenora: Would either remain Liberal, or there would be a 3 way fight. It would NOT be an assured CPC win by any means. With the CPC remaining stagnant and a 3% NDP increase in this area the NDP could well be the contenders for this with the Liberals. However, there is still more than a 10% lead from the Liberals over the CPC in Kenora and there is only 400 votes separating the NDP and CPC.

Guelph No change there is an 8% Liberal lead over the CPC.

Brant - could be up for play if the NDP and Greens have gotten support from this area from the Liberals

So, out of those you have noted, there could, at most, be 1 seat up for CPC grabs, if there was a 6% decline for the Liberals there, which is doubtful as the NDP and Greens were NON-contenders.

The CPC has made NO gains in Ontario, so really this excerise of both yours and mine was fruitless. Because the CPC may well have declined in some areas while increased in others to stay at 36% or 1/3 population approval within Ontario.

Next up the Atlantic CPC seats losses with a decline of 12%

Catchme · February 10, 2007

Atlantic seats up for grabs or lost with the 12 % decline in CPC fortunes

St. John's East/St. John's-Est 11.6% CPC lead and seat could be gone with 12%

St. John's South—Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud—Mount Pearl 11.7 CPC lead and seat could be lost with 12% decline

Central Nova/Nova-Centre 7.8 MacKay would be gone for sure with that 12% decline

South Shore—St. Margaret's 8.3% This seat would be gone

Tobique—Mactaquac 0.09% This seat would more than be gone

So, the CPC are looking at 3 seats for sure being gone in the Atlantic provinces and 2 other potential ones as well.

Up next the west.

Saturn · February 10, 2007

So either your being facetious, or your an idiot.
Grade 1 math here CatchMe... 44-38= A DROP OF 6%!!!!!!

On a sample of 262 with accuracy of +-6.1% 19/20? Stats101 here geoffrey, there is no evidence of change in support for the Liberals based on these polls.

Btw, some of those ridings you identified in Ontario, like Guelph and Kitchener Center, I'm going to vote for Harper before they do.

stignasty · February 10, 2007

So either your being facetious, or your an idiot.
Grade 1 math here ...

Grade 1 math in Alberta deals with addition and subtraction of single digit numbers. Grade 2 math deals with numbers up to 100.

Perhaps coincidentally, contractions and compound words are also supposed to be learned in Grade 2.

geoffrey · February 10, 2007

So either your being facetious, or your an idiot.

Grade 1 math here CatchMe... 44-38= A DROP OF 6%!!!!!!

On a sample of 262 with accuracy of +-6.1% 19/20? Stats101 here geoffrey, there is no evidence of change in support for the Liberals based on these polls.

Btw, some of those ridings you identified in Ontario, like Guelph and Kitchener Center, I'm going to vote for Harper before they do.

Stats101 Saturn, it's as likely that the Liberals are at zero change than they are at a 12% drop.

Saturn · February 10, 2007

Stats101 Saturn, it's as likely that the Liberals are at zero change than they are at a 12% drop.

Or that they gained 6%. Without some really nice bribe from the Conservatives, I don't see the Liberals dropping in Ontario.

Catchme · February 10, 2007

Now, the CPC are down 7% in the west, and they have no ability to gain more seats in ON or PQ, as discussed and displayed prior in this forum. Also shown is the fact they will lose 3 seats if the 12% decline holds, with another potential loss of 2 seats in the Atlantic for a total of 5 seat losses, so far examined.

Manitoba with a 7% decrease in CPC support:

CharleswoodSt. JamesAssiniboia 10.6% It could be a close race if the Libs 5% increase and the CPCs 7% decrease is there

Kildonan—St. Paul 9.7% It could be a close race and seriously up for contention if the Libs 5% increase and the CPCs 7% decrease is there

Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud 0,03% This seat will be lost if the 7% decline is there which most likely with that small of a spread it is in part.

So 1 the CPC are looking at a 1 seat loss in Manitoba

Saskatchewan here the CPC with there 7% decline are in contention with the NDP and their 1% increase in severals areas and with the Liberals in others.

Palliser 9.9% This seat could be up for grabs and in contention with the NDP with a 7% CPC decrease and a 1% NDP increase. But still favours the CPC

ReginaQu'Appelle 8.8% This seat could seriously be up for grabs and in contention with the NDP with a 7% CPC decrease and a 1% NDP increase. Particularily if Nystrom runs again.

SaskatoonRosetownBiggar 6.6% This seat would be lost with a 7% CPC decline and a NDP 1% increcrease

So the CPC would be looking at a 1seat loss in Saskatchewan with their 7% decline and a potential fight in 2 other ridings.

Alberta

Here the CPC are pretty solid so a 7% decrease would not be too hurtful other than:

Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 6.3% This seat would be lost if the decline of 7% was here and the Liberals 5% western increase was as well.

Edmonton—Strathcona 9.2% This seat could be up for grabs and in contention with the NDP, with a 7% CPC decrease and a 1% NDP increase. But still favours the CPC if Jaffer remains in favour that is.

So, the CPC would lose 1 seat in AB and 1 more would be up for grabs with the NDP.

BC

Now here if the CPC have a 7% decline, the NDP a 1% increase and the Liberals a 5% increase there would be more changes in seats lost for the CPC

Fleetwood—Port Kells 1.9% This seat would be lost to the CPC and would be a fight between the Libs and NDP

KamloopsThompson—Cariboo 8.5% This seat would be up for serious contention with the NDP.

NanaimoAlberni 9.1% This seat would be up for serious contention with the NDP.

Pitt MeadowsMaple RidgeMission 5.2% This seat would be lost to the CPC with their 7% decline and the NDPs 1% increase.

SaanichGulf Islands 10.6% This seat would be up for serious contention with the NDP. Particularly, if they do not believe the CPC are serious about the environment.

Vancouver Kingsway This seat is already lost to the CPC. They voted Liberal and Emmerson walked.

So, there is a 3 seat loss in BC to the NDP and a serious potential for 3 more losses 2 more loss to the NDP and another will go either NDP or Liberal.

Overview of CPC seat losses across Canada:

Atlantic - 3 seat losses for sure potential for 2 more seat losses

West - 6 seat losses for sure and potential for 6 more seat losses.

No CPC gains in ON or PQ.

Total 9 seat losses for the CPC with serious potential for 8 more if we went into an election call shortly.

This means the CPC would have at most 113 seats, with a realistic potential of having only 104 seats.

Therefore the minority government would change hands to the Liberals as they have potential to at least pick up 5 seats across Canada excluding PQ, and the Liberals have potential to pick up at least 2 more seats in PQ.

This SES poll does not bode well for the CPC's current course of actions.

geoffrey · February 10, 2007

Stats101 Saturn, it's as likely that the Liberals are at zero change than they are at a 12% drop.

Or that they gained 6%. Without some really nice bribe from the Conservatives, I don't see the Liberals dropping in Ontario.

That makes no sense. The poll shows a 6% drop, +/- 6%, 19/20. That means the margin of error is between a 0% drop (a 5% chance of that being true) or a 12% drop (5% chance of that being true). The most likely outcome is the poll's result.

There is absolutely no indictation from that poll that the Liberals have done anything but dropped considerably in support.

Seriously, your lack of statistics here is shocking... what exactly do they teach at those schools in the East?

--

I agree with those predictions CatchMe.

Remember, I'm not really much of a CPC advocate anymore, I don't like alot of Harper's policies... I just happen to think the Liberals are far worse and completely out of touch with the West in Canada. I'm not out to be a partisan, personally, I could care less who wins, we get the same shit in Alberta either way. I do, however, think it would be good for the Liberals to get their asses handed to them in Ontario... make them question their poor choice of leader.

jbg · February 10, 2007

Remember, I'm not really much of a CPC advocate anymore, I don't like alot of Harper's policies... I just happen to think the Liberals are far worse and completely out of touch with the West in Canada. I'm not out to be a partisan, personally, I could care less who wins, we get the same shit in Alberta either way. I do, however, think it would be good for the Liberals to get their asses handed to them in Ontario... make them question their poor choice of leader.

There's no such thing as getting a perfect leader or PM. Mulroney "disaffected" so many that his party split in three; and what did those "disaffected" PCPC people get as their reward for the search for perfection? Chretien, Martin, Gagliano, Guite, Sponsorship, Shawinigate and the gun registry.

geoffrey · February 10, 2007

There's no such thing as getting a perfect leader or PM. Mulroney "disaffected" so many that his party split in three; and what did those "disaffected" PCPC people get as their reward for the search for perfection? Chretien, Martin, Gagliano, Guite, Sponsorship, Shawinigate and the gun registry.

I don't disagree. But I'm not one to vote for a party just to prevent another from being elected. I want to see results for me, in Alberta, nothing else really matters too much. The essence of real democracy perhaps.

The CPC isn't doing anything for Alberta, or me, so why should I really vote for them? What do I get for that vote? How would my life be different then if the Liberals won? It wouldn't be. So why care?

jdobbin · February 10, 2007

There's no such thing as getting a perfect leader or PM. Mulroney "disaffected" so many that his party split in three; and what did those "disaffected" PCPC people get as their reward for the search for perfection? Chretien, Martin, Gagliano, Guite, Sponsorship, Shawinigate and the gun registry.

They also had elimination of the deficit, stayed out of Iraq and had a growing economy the entire time.

Saturn · February 10, 2007

That makes no sense. The poll shows a 6% drop, +/- 6%, 19/20. That means the margin of error is between a 0% drop (a 5% chance of that being true) or a 12% drop (5% chance of that being true). The most likely outcome is the poll's result.
There is absolutely no indictation from that poll that the Liberals have done anything but dropped considerably in support.

Seriously, your lack of statistics here is shocking... what exactly do they teach at those schools in the East?

Dude, this is just sad and/or funny. A 95% confidence interval simply means that there is a 95% probability that the true mean lies in the interval. So, there is 95% prob that at the time of the first poll support for the Liberals was somewhere between 38 and 50% and at the time of the second poll it was somewhere between 32 and 44%. The two CI overlap substantially, so there is no evidence that the means actually differ or that support for the Liberals has changed. On top of that these polls suffer from around 80% non-response and respondents are not necessarily honest about their intentions, making the margin of error even larger. My training in statistics is much stronger than yours and no statistician would claim that there is a change in Liberal support based on this poll. What you wrote above make no sense.

Oh, I see. You are probably assuming that the 44% in the previous poll WAS the true mean. That's a bad assumption. 44% +-6% simply means that at the time the previous poll was done, the proportion of people who would have answered the poll would have claimed and that they would vote Liberal was somewhere between 38% and 50% with 95% probability.

jbg · February 10, 2007

I don't disagree. But I'm not one to vote for a party just to prevent another from being elected. I want to see results for me, in Alberta, nothing else really matters too much. The essence of real democracy perhaps.
The CPC isn't doing anything for Alberta, or me, so why should I really vote for them? What do I get for that vote? How would my life be different then if the Liberals won? It wouldn't be. So why care?

Politics is the art of the possible. Thus, a person must often vote for someone whose actions or positions are impalatable at some level, or whose willingness to compromise is either insufficient or too great. As far as Alberta goes, doing nothing is better than a new NEP.

They also had elimination of the deficit, stayed out of Iraq and had a growing economy the entire time.

Partly, of course, your economy follows the US economy, which, with a brief hiccup from late 1989 to early 1991 has been on a tear since the end of 1982, and with little inflation. Our deficit went down as well, went up briefly and now is down again.

jdobbin · February 10, 2007

Partly, of course, your economy follows the US economy, which, with a brief hiccup from late 1989 to early 1991 has been on a tear since the end of 1982, and with little inflation. Our deficit went down as well, went up briefly and now is down again.

How is Canada not going back to having a deficit something that the U.S. can take credit for?

The U.S. deficit may be down from what it was but it will be there for years to come according to Congress and financial experts.

I see you ignored the Iraq question altogether. The Conservatives would have had Canada in Iraq and probably would have sent their party down in flames for another 10 years had they done so.