Canadian Political Polls

[capricorn]

People just do not understand th real reasons behind all of this and I do not like them but I can see them. Mulroney and Schrieber have been planing this all along, and the reason for it is because the federal immigration was about to pull the plug and extradite Schrieber back to Germany. Mulroney is a friend to Schrieber even if he denies it, and I think that all this was setup and choreographed by the both of them to force Harper's hand and have the extradition of Schrieber put off.

Do you really think Mulroney would stoop so low as to endanger the Conservative Party by aiding a crook like Schreiber? Surely, if this were true these facts would be uncovered in a public enquiry. I just can't see Mulroney doing this.

[Michael Bluth]

And why didn't Mulroney call for an inquiry back in 2003, or 2006?

Schreiber made the allegations in 2007. Maybe he didn't have a crystal ball?

[gc1765]

Schreiber made the allegations in 2007

See my post in this thread

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll.

http://www.canadaeast.com/news/article/126521

A new poll suggests the Conservatives remain slightly ahead of the Liberals, but it doesn't take into account the full fallout from the controversy surrounding former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put popular support for the Tories at 33 per cent - well short of majority government territory - with the Liberals at 29 per cent.

The NDP was at 17 per cent, the Green party at 12 and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.

Last Friday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced an independent review of allegations that Mulroney discussed cash payments from a controversial German-Canadian businessman while still in office.

Details also emerged that Karlheinz Schreiber had written to Harper with his allegations last spring, but that the letter was not passed on to the prime minister.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Thursday to Monday.

On Tuesday, Harper announced that a full public inquiry will be held into the Mulroney-Schreiber affair, and the RCMP announced that it is reviewing Schreiber's claims.

How the controversy further affects Tory fortunes remains to be seen.

[jbg]

Do you really think Mulroney would stoop so low as to endanger the Conservative Party by aiding a crook like Schreiber? Surely, if this were true these facts would be uncovered in a public enquiry. I just can't see Mulroney doing this.

Unless Schreiber threatened to take Mulroney down criminally with him. And after all if $300,000 doesn't buy a pasta factory it at least buys an effort to stall extradition.

I don't think this was a Harper operation. This is pure Schreiber.

[capricorn]

I don't think this was a Harper operation. This is pure Schreiber.

I agree. The only person to benefit from this whole thing is Schreiber. He will do and say anything to avoid extradition to face justice in Germany. The best outcome is that he be extradited tp Germany to answer the charges there. The public enquiry could go on without him. Alas, knowing our judicial system that will not happen. Gotta give the guy his day in court...Canadian court, that is.

[Vancouver King]

Oh the optics:

Suggested Liberal Party between elections ad: Background: flash Mulroney/Harper schmoozing at various times and events including the PM's official residence and voice over begins. "Brian Mulroney admits he accepted $300,000 in cold hard cash from Schreiber. Mr. Schreiber states this transfer of this cash involved installments of $100,000 given to Mr. Mulroney in shopping bags in rooms at various international hotels."

"If these cash payments were not connected with bribery over an Airbus contract, why did the former Conservative PM accept bags full of cash instead of a normal cheque? What did the Tory PM do with $300,000 in paper cash? Take it to his bank? What was the bank's reaction? Did he instead hide it in his mattress and spend it on groceries? Why did he declare the cash as income only after the existence of these clandestine payments came to light?"

The possibilities are endless. So the Tories think they have perfected the negative tv ad. Pass the Liberal hat and get some variation of the above into the marketplace asap.

[jbg]

Oh the optics:

Suggested Liberal Party between elections ad: Background: flash Mulroney/Harper schmoozing at various times and events including the PM's official residence and voice over begins. "Brian Mulroney admits he accepted $300,000 in cold hard cash from Schreiber. Mr. Schreiber states this transfer of this cash involved installments of $100,000 given to Mr. Mulroney in shopping bags in rooms at various international hotels."

"If these cash payments were not connected with bribery over an Airbus contract, why did the former Conservative PM accept bags full of cash instead of a normal cheque? What did the Tory PM do with $300,000 in paper cash? Take it to his bank? What was the bank's reaction? Did he instead hide it in his mattress and spend it on groceries? Why did he declare the cash as income only after the existence of these clandestine payments came to light?"

The possibilities are endless. So the Tories think they have perfected the negative tv ad. Pass the Liberal hat and get some variation of the above into the marketplace asap.

Great material, for Turner v. Mulroney, Round II, 1988. If only "Back to the Future" wasn't fiction and someone know it ahead of time.

Maybe John Napier Turner would have been a great Prime Minister.

[Smallc]

Oh the optics:

Suggested Liberal Party between elections ad: Background: flash Mulroney/Harper schmoozing at various times and events including the PM's official residence and voice over begins. "Brian Mulroney admits he accepted $300,000 in cold hard cash from Schreiber. Mr. Schreiber states this transfer of this cash involved installments of $100,000 given to Mr. Mulroney in shopping bags in rooms at various international hotels."

"If these cash payments were not connected with bribery over an Airbus contract, why did the former Conservative PM accept bags full of cash instead of a normal cheque? What did the Tory PM do with $300,000 in paper cash? Take it to his bank? What was the bank's reaction? Did he instead hide it in his mattress and spend it on groceries? Why did he declare the cash as income only after the existence of these clandestine payments came to light?"

The possibilities are endless. So the Tories think they have perfected the negative tv ad. Pass the Liberal hat and get some variation of the above into the marketplace asap.

Too bad they don't have enough money to do such things.

[shavluk]

http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149#comment-2375

Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for 1st time ever

National support for the Green Party has surged above the NDP's support for the first time ever in Canada.

The survey by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV shows the Green Party at 13% across Canada ahead of the NDP at 12%.

In the West the Greens are at 18% -- two per cent ahead of the NDP while the in Ontario the Greens and the NDP are tied at 12%............ continued in link

[jdobbin]

http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149#comment-2375

Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for 1st time ever

National support for the Green Party has surged above the NDP's support for the first time ever in Canada.

The survey by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV shows the Green Party at 13% across Canada ahead of the NDP at 12%.

In the West the Greens are at 18% -- two per cent ahead of the NDP while the in Ontario the Greens and the NDP are tied at 12%............ continued in link

The Decima poll taken in the same time frame had a slightly different response in favour of the NDP. However, it certainly must be a surprise to Layton to have to constantly be looking over his shoulder.

The big news is that two and three days after the Tories reach 42%, they are dragged back down to 33%.

[daniel]

...The big news is that two and three days after the Tories reach 42%, they are dragged back down to 33%.

That was a wake-up call. Remember the last time they were approaching majority-territory? Same thing.

[capricorn]

That was a wake-up call. Remember the last time they were approaching majority-territory? Same thing.

Do you recall the issue that caused the downturn in the polls?

[jdobbin]

Do you recall the issue that caused the downturn in the polls?

Probably Harper himself.

[Smallc]

Probably Harper himself.

People aren't afraid of Harper. People are afraid of the Conservative party.

[capricorn]

Probably Harper himself.

Funny, jd, very funny.

[jdobbin]

People aren't afraid of Harper. People are afraid of the Conservative party.

I don't know that they are afraid of Harper. They just don't really like him if the polls are any indication.

Dion is no great shakes either but there are things about Harper's personality that people have not warmed to.

[Smallc]

I don't know that they are afraid of Harper. They just don't really like him if the polls are any indication.

Dion is no great shakes either but there are things about Harper's personality that people have not warmed to.

No, but he is still the most leader like in the eyes of the people by a long shot. Alas, so was my poor Paul Martin. A great PM that wasn't even given a chance.

[jdobbin]

No, but he is still the most leader like in the eyes of the people by a long shot. Alas, so was my poor Paul Martin. A great PM that wasn't even given a chance.

Paul Martin was once at 80% when Harper was scraping the bottom. Just goes to show...

[jdobbin]

Strategic Counsel poll on support for an inquiry.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

A new poll suggests 67 per cent of Canadians want to know why Brian Mulroney accepted $300,000 from Karlheinz Schreiber, while 51 per cent approve of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's appointment of an independent investigator.

"People want this investigated in more detail," said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the survey for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

Schreiber, a German-Canadian businessman facing extradition to his native country where he faces fraud allegations, has said in court documents that he paid Mulroney $300,000 shortly after Mulroney left office.

[jdobbin]

In the third poll since Monday, SES reveals the political parties are in a virtual tie.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071115/...litics_poll_col

Canada's Conservatives are running in a virtual dead heat with the main opposition Liberal Party, according to public opinion poll released on Wednesday.

The new poll, conducted November 6-8 by the SES Research, shows 35 percent of respondents would favor the Conservatives in a federal election, compared with 34 percent for the Liberals.

Support for the Conservatives, which currently lead a minority government, fell by 1 percentage point from the previous SES poll on August 4. The Liberals, the second-largest party in Parliament, gained 1 percentage point.

The Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, have stayed in power in recent weeks as the Liberals, mindful of poor approval ratings for their leader, Stephane Dion, have abstained in key policy votes.

"This research shows that the Harper leadership advantage has not converted itself into the ballot box nationally," Nik Nanos, president of SES Research in Ottawa, said in a statement.

I guess that answers the question of why the Tories are where they are: Harper.

[capricorn]

In the third poll since Monday, SES reveals the political parties are in a virtual tie.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071115/...litics_poll_col

I guess that answers the question of why the Tories are where they are: Harper.

Then why are Harper's personal numbers so high?

[jdobbin]

Then why are Harper's personal numbers so high?

37% is not considered very high for personal popularity. Even Greg Weston is the Sun which commissioned the SES poll said that all the numbers were mediocre. Dion's numbers are worse though.

Paul Martin had 80% at one time. That is considered very popular. If Harper could even get to 50%, it would probably do wonders for this party. Likewise though, if the Liberals had a more popular leader, they would do the same.

More on the SES poll:

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/200...654258-sun.html

The poll asked Canadians coast-to-coast an open-ended question about what they liked about the two federal leaders, regardless of voting habits. The most common answer for both -- 32% for Harper and 34% for Dion -- was a candid "nothing."

NOT THRILLED

"What it shows is that Canadians aren't thrilled with either of the choices on the leadership front," said SES pollster Nik Nanos. "On the positive side for Stephen Harper, there's more likely to be a perception that he gets things done and that he's honest, so he has that integrity card.

Edited November 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

Greg Watson may think 37% a mediocre showing for Harper. In any case, Harper is still the top choice of Canadians for best leader. Using Watson's choice of adjectives, he would probably refer to Dion's standing as pitiful. Behind Jack Layton? Wow!

As for Martin, I attribute his high numbers to name recognition and the fact he was already in office. Harper was a newcomer and an unknown factor to Canadians. No surprise there.

[Smallc]

Greg Watson may think 37% a mediocre showing for Harper. In any case, Harper is still the top choice of Canadians for best leader. Using Watson's choice of adjectives, he would probably refer to Dion's standing as pitiful. Behind Jack Layton? Wow!

As for Martin, I attribute his high numbers to name recognition and the fact he was already in office. Harper was a newcomer and an unknown factor to Canadians. No surprise there.

Greg Weston, and harper is not a newcomer anymore. It's no excuse.