Canadian Political Polls

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

If Dion supports the throne speech, he's setting himself up for an even greater fall. The Liberals will have to dismiss Kyoto outright to support the government. This will be spun against the party as unable to stand up and be the opposition.
It also takes the environment right off the table as an election issue between the two parties. The Liberals will bleed heavily to the NDP for abandoning Kyoto (we all know that Martin/Dion abandoned it years ago, but not the average idiot).

He doesn't have to support the throne speech. He has some of his people abstain and say that the Canadian people don't want an election.

I'm sure all three parties are going to attack the Liberals for this. We'll see if it leads to the fall you are talking about. However, this idea that the Liberals will be reduced to numbers below John Turner or even down to Campbell numbers seems a little unrealistic.

If Harper wants to set up a controversial issue to bring the government down, the pollster from Ipsos says that could backfire.

August1991 · October 13, 2007

Bricker also said, however, that Harper is in a "tough spot" if he wants to take advantage of his popularity and to engineer his own defeat by putting something into the throne speech that is so unpalatable to all three opposition parties that they would bring the government down. Harper would risk a public backlash over what would be seen as a "cynical" manoeuvre.

I'm not so sure that potential Tory voters would see this as "cynical" or if they did, they would see that badly.

People want a leader who is smart and ambitious. For example, we want someone who can negotiate intelligently with US presidents. I think that if Harper can organize an election this fall, particularly on an issue that distinguishes correctly the Tories from the other parties, this will be well seen.

The last time the Conservatives hit a support level of 40 per cent was immediately after its popular budget last spring. However, the post-budget bounce evaporated within two weeks.

These things go up and down and until a campaign starts, many people are not concentrating their minds. A few suicide bombs in Afghanistan and polls might be different.

Bricker said the latest survey's Quebec results show how the Liberals have fallen in Dion's home province. At only 18 per cent support, the party is only four points ahead of the NDP, and trails far behind the Bloc at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 27 per cent. The Green party polled at seven per cent.

The Liberals at 18% in Quebec means that they will keep their 13 seats in Quebec. In 2006, the Liberals got 20.6%. These are the safe West Montreal and Hull ridings.

The big change in Quebec is the drop of the Bloc and the rise in both the NDP and the Tories. I think the NDP may win some Montreal ridings. At 27%, the Tories would be moving into the zone where they'll get payoffs in seats - perhaps as many as 20.

Here are the Quebec popular vote totals from 2006.

The picture was slightly brighter for the Liberals in Ontario, where they trail the Conservatives by only three points, 40 per cent to 37. The NDP was well back at 14 per cent, and the Greens had eight per cent.

I somehow doubt that the Tories lead in Ontario but who knows. I have always thought that some Ontario voters will vote for the party that has support in Quebec since they want to vote for a federalist party.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

I somehow doubt that the Tories lead in Ontario but who knows. I have always thought that some Ontario voters will vote for the party that has support in Quebec since they want to vote for a federalist party.

I don't think I have ever seen any polling, any academic research or media scrutiny about Ontario going the way Quebec goes when it comes to voting.

And you're right, something during an election can turn the table quickly. For John Tory, it was his faith-based school proposal, for Paul Martin, it was the RCMP investigation into income trusts. Something bad in Afghanistan could easily push support down, especially for a nervous Quebec.

Harper will have to hope for a flawless campaign and somehow reassure voters along the way about issues like the environment, Afghanistan, daycare and the economy.

ScottSA · October 13, 2007

Anything over 11% above any other party or 40% overall is considered majority support. The Tories have both. If an election were held today, Harper would have a majority with those numbers.
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...a2dc&k=7783

I'm going to frame this post and hang it on my office wall as a reminder that miracles do happen.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

I'm going to frame this post and hang it on my office wall as a reminder that miracles do happen.

We'll see if Harper pulls the plug. He had the chance in the spring with similar numbers but pulled back from calling a confidence measure even when it was apparent his government was about to lose on C-30.

Michael Bluth · October 13, 2007

I'm going to frame this post and hang it on my office wall as a reminder that miracles do happen.

Sometimes the truth is so patently obvious it cannot be denied.

The key to that poll is the Liberals are down to 28% nationally. That happens to be the exact level of support the received in the 1984 election. That one didn't work too well for them.

This is before the writ is dropped. If a CPC majority is seen as a likely outcome could the story of the campaign become the Stephane Dion death watch? It would be an opportune time for Layton to make a move to become official opposition.

Wow, with the pressure on what are the odds that Dion wilts?

Looks like the Green vote is falling as well.

The Liberals are down to 18% in Quebec? That's historically low.

Something tells me the Conservatives are hard at work rewriting the Throne Speech to make it that much more difficult for the Liberals to support.

What is to stop the Conservatives from having members sick for the vote if the Liberals are going to play that reindeer game?

No worries about 'an early election' becoming an issue.

ScottSA · October 13, 2007

I'm sure all three parties are going to attack the Liberals for this. We'll see if it leads to the fall you are talking about. However, this idea that the Liberals will be reduced to numbers below John Turner or even down to Campbell numbers seems a little unrealistic.

All trouncings seem a little unrealistic before the election is called, and often even during the beginning of the actual campaign. A lot of people thought the PCs might lose in 93, but very few saw the annihilation that was in store for them and the wins out of right field for Reform. In fact no one even saw the PC win coming last election...it was supposed to be another Liberal walk in the park, assured by the usual ramped up panic and a few "scary scary" ads.

One of the quirks of canadian elections is that parties either run on leaders, or on parties. The leader campaign can be wildly successful, as witnessed by Trudeaumania, but it's much less stable than a party centric campaign. It can backfire in a big way like the "Kim" campaign. When the 93 elections began, the Tories hung their hats on "Kim!" instead of "PC", to take advantage of the freshness and female aspect and to avoid the giant Mulroney hate-on. As soon as her inexperience and downright incompetence became obvious, that turned against them with a fury...the Chretien ads were just the last nail in the coffin, not a determinant. Chretien won subsequent majorities by shutting his mouth, keeping a low profile, and flogging the "Red Book", actually stolen from Reform, who started out with "Green Books". The much anticipated "Martin" era just never seemed to materialize. A giant as Finance minister turned into a dithering simp as PM, but the Libs had by that time earned such a scorned reputation that they couldn't run on a Liberal platform, and had instead to run on Martin platform as the lesser of two evils. Neither option would have worked by the time of the election.

Harper is the anti-thesis of a demagogue, but has a great reputation for intelligence and competence, so the Tories will fight this by presenting themselves as a party, with a competent leader; not as a "Harper" party. More important, he has proven that he's not likely to put soldiers on the streets or make everyone go to church, so the scary scary of the sort that dobbin is trying to whip up doesn't have any legs.

Dion, true to form, has drawn so much scorn that he has no choice but to fight the campaign on the merits of his own leadership. He might as well just shoot himself. Now that his performance has driven even the CBC into a feeding frenzy, it can only get worse...especially since the Tories are even now framing the debate around leadership. Dion has the worst of both worlds: a disorganized party and a weak leader, with the focus starkly on the leader.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

Harper is the anti-thesis of a demagogue, but has a great reputation for intelligence and competence, so the Tories will fight this by presenting themselves as a party, with a competent leader; not as a "Harper" party. More important, he has proven that he's not likely to put soldiers on the streets or make everyone go to church, so the scary scary of the sort that dobbin is trying to whip up doesn't have any legs.

Since I haven't been associated with any of the areas you mention nor have ever used the scary phrase, I don't know why you have personalized the comments to me.

I have said many times that I believe Harper is wrong on many issues such as the GST cut rather than an income tax cut but I certainly don't think he is scary and have never said so.

Michael Bluth · October 13, 2007

Since I haven't been associated with any of the areas you mention nor have ever used the scary phrase, I don't know why you have personalized the comments to me.

My guess? This thread. Link

You might remember it. You've got more than 80 posts, more than 1/3rd of the thread.

You even changed your horribly false and misleading thread title and subtitle.

Shakeyhands · October 13, 2007

Stalking again?

ScottSA · October 13, 2007

My guess? This thread. Link
You might remember it. You've got more than 80 posts, more than 1/3rd of the thread.

You even changed your horribly false and misleading thread title and subtitle.

That was the thread I had in mind.

jbg · October 13, 2007

Good news indeed!!!

===========================================================

Tories lunge toward majority turf, poll says (link)

Norma Greenaway , CanWest News Service

Published: Friday, October 12, 2007

OTTAWA - The federal Conservatives have surged to 40 per cent in the popularity sweepstakes, opening a 12-point lead over the Liberals and moving within sight of majority government, a new national poll says.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, also says that almost seven in 10 respondents believe Canada is "moving in the right track these days," and that almost half (49 per cent) identified with the sentiment that "Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election" as prime minister.

"These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years," Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, said Friday. At 40 per cent, the Conservatives were up four points from the last Ipsos-Reid poll in August, and were right on the "magic number" needed to think about forming a majority government, he said.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

Good news indeed!!!

This poll is already in the thread.

Michael Bluth · October 13, 2007

Good news indeed!!!
"These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years," Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, said Friday. At 40 per cent, the Conservatives were up four points from the last Ipsos-Reid poll in August, and were right on the "magic number" needed to think about forming a majority government, he said.

It took a little while for the chaos in the Libeal Party of Canada ranks to register. Now that it has things are looking very, very good for Harper and his fellow Conservatives.

ScottSA · October 13, 2007

Since I haven't been associated with any of the areas you mention nor have ever used the scary phrase, I don't know why you have personalized the comments to me.
I have said many times that I believe Harper is wrong on many issues such as the GST cut rather than an income tax cut but I certainly don't think he is scary and have never said so.

Dobbin, I don't know if you have "said so" or not, but the thread on Jewish lists is howlingly transparent innuendo whether you admit it or not. I don't want to rehash the entire issue here, but you say you make your living from writing, and I haven't seen any evidence that you're a particularly poor writer or that you're stupid. That's why your attempt to evoke Nazi Germany by couching greeting cards in the language of concentration camps defies your denial. If you were unacquainted with the English language, or one of the lower end thinkers hereabouts, you might get away with it, but you aren't and you can't. You could use some work in subtlety to be sure, or failing that, in faking wounded innocence.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

Dobbin, I don't know if you have "said so" or not, but the thread on Jewish lists is howlingly transparent innuendo whether you admit it or not. I don't want to rehash the entire issue here, but you say you make your living from writing, and I haven't seen any evidence that you're a particularly poor writer or that you're stupid. That's why your attempt to evoke Nazi Germany by couching greeting cards in the language of concentration camps defies your denial. If you were unacquainted with the English language, or one of the lower end thinkers hereabouts, you might get away with it, but you aren't and you can't. You could use some work in subtlety to be sure, or failing that, in faking wounded innocence.

Since my entire focus in that thread was the issue of privacy and consent from the first post onwards, the only people making the link you make are those who wanted to dismiss the issue altogether as being of no importance. You often decry the use of racist and say that it is used to cut off debate. Now, you are others are saying Nazi and anti-semitic in your comments to do the same.

ScottSA · October 13, 2007

Since my entire focus in that thread was the issue of privacy and consent from the first post onwards, the only people making the link you make are those who wanted to dismiss the issue altogether as being of no importance. You often decry the use of racist and say that it is used to cut off debate. Now, you are others are saying Nazi and anti-semitic in your comments to do the same.

I'm not calling you anti-semetic. I'm not calling your post anti-semetic. I'm suggesting that you framed your title in terms calculated to raise an alarm, much as my title "Islam, the sneaker buggers" was calculated to raise an alarm. The difference is that I am quite willing to say I'm alarmed about Islam and quite ready to insult it even without immediate provocation, and you're not willing to stand behind your blatantly obvious innuendo against the Conservatives.

Again, I don't want to rehash the thread here, but if your only concern was the privacy act, why didn't you create a title that said that?

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

I'm not calling you anti-semetic. I'm not calling your post anti-semetic. I'm suggesting that you framed your title in terms calculated to raise an alarm, much as my title "Islam, the sneaker buggers" was calculated to raise an alarm. The difference is that I am quite willing to say I'm alarmed about Islam and quite ready to insult it even without immediate provocation, and you're not willing to stand behind your blatantly obvious innuendo against the Conservatives.
Again, I don't want to rehash the thread here, but if your only concern was the privacy act, why didn't you create a title that said that?

Certainly you didn't say that but others did. The title I chose for the post was completely accurate. I changed it to place it on one line with a second line about the mailing list based on suggestions but people who were unhappy with the word Jews were still pushing for a change that said something other than Jews. The words "religious groups" was not accurate. I did consult with moderators about the post and they did not find it inflammatory or they would have dealt with it. Their observations and suggestions were helpful. I don't know that anything really would have prevented the accusation of Nazi innuendo except not posting the article at all. And I was unwilling to be intimidated into avoid addressing the issue privacy in compiling of lists based on religion without consent.

Keepitsimple · October 13, 2007

From the original Ipsos poll CFRB news story, I think this is the most interesting finding - and one that should make Liberals and NDP go "oh my gawd!!!"

The poll also suggests about half of Canadians (49%) believe the Harper government deserves to be re-elected. Two-thirds (67%) believe the country's on the right track.

Edited October 13, 2007 by Keepitsimple

Canuck E Stan · October 13, 2007

STEPHEN Harper's Conservatives have increased their political lead in Manitoba and are well positioned for gains within the province if an election is triggered this fall, a Free Press/Probe poll shows.

Paul Thomas, a political science professor at the University of Manitoba, said the Manitoba numbers are "not good news for the Liberals".

Harper gaining in Manitoba

Worth a couple of more seats from Manitoba for the Conservatives.

LastViking · October 13, 2007

The TrendLines Research seat projections are in for the above Ipsos & Decima polls. Harper's 141 potential seats are not cause for over exuberance...

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

Harper gaining in Manitoba
Worth a couple of more seats from Manitoba for the Conservatives.

They certainly might take Winnipeg Center. Churchill is a different issue in the north where if any party takes that seat, it will be the NDP. St. Boniface is a toss up. It would have to be a massive majority because that it is the only time it has been taken by the Tories. Much of the Tory support is concentrated in areas they have won already though.

Edited October 14, 2007 by jdobbin

jbg · October 14, 2007

I'm not calling you anti-semetic. I'm not calling your post anti-semetic.

Jdobbin is no anti-semite.

old_bold&cold · October 14, 2007

Please this jousting back and forth about the thread on list of jews, is bad enough there, let alone here in this thread. Can we not just drop that, as everything has been said and rehashed many times.

Now that the Polls have Harper gaining ground, and is entering majority territory, does anyone think that there still will be a vote to bring down the throne speech? It also seems that Harper is getting all his ducks ready for an election just in case, but how stupid would Dion have to be to pull the plug? Also if he does go ahead with it, anyone want to predict the outcome ?

Michael Bluth · October 14, 2007

It also seems that Harper is getting all his ducks ready for an election just in case, but how stupid would Dion have to be to pull the plug? Also if he does go ahead with it, anyone want to predict the outcome ?

Judging the political acumen of Stephane Dion at this point in time can only lead to one answer.

Based on polls reflecting the Canadian public's reaction to the turmoil in the Liberal ranks it looks like the Conservatives are heading for a majority.