Canadian Political Polls

[Michael Bluth]

The Greens have dropped considerably in this poll. The NDP have dropped in this poll. The dream of a 38% majority is just that: a dream.

The Greens dropped by two points in this poll while the Conservatives rose by four.

So to use your adjectives correctly the Conservatives support has risen more than considerably.

[jdobbin]

The Greens dropped by two points in this poll while the Conservatives rose by four.

So to use your adjectives correctly the Conservatives support has risen more than considerably.

And just a smidge over the margin and yet far away from a majority. And with the Greens down, it doesn't look like the vote splitting you seem to be hoping for. Now, can we finally get you answer on your sexist views of Ruby Dhalla?

[Michael Bluth]

I see the whole " Me and my shadow" routine is still alive and well.

I apologize for that WDW?

There seems to be no way I can post this evening without being accused of sexism for some thread that is no longer on the board. It's unfortunate but I'm trying to discuss the polls and not being allowed to. But if you do have some questions about the SES poll I'd be more than willing to answer.

[jdobbin]

I apologize for that WDW?

There seems to be no way I can post this evening without being accused of sexism for some thread that is no longer on the board. It's unfortunate but I'm trying to discuss the polls and not being allowed to. But if you do have some questions about the SES poll I'd be more than willing to answer.

It is still on the board. I have pointed it out to you many times.

Here it is: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....=9542&st=04

Care to address it? You never have in the past.

Edited August 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

I think not wanting a another minority is the reason that Harper didn't visit Rideau Hall. Why not let Canadians have a chance to get to know Dion first then get a shot at a majority. The dangers are manifold for calling an election when 1) no one wnats one. 2) not letting the new leader settle in.

With that said, I think another Harper Minority would be the absolute best possible outcome.

I agree. If this majority serves until the fall of '09, a 50-50 proposition at this point, then the lines between minority and majority really blur.

Harper and Martin both had the chance create a new standard for minority government in this country.

Martin dithered his chance away. But Harper has doing well with it and has a very good shot of being the third longest minority government in Canadian history.

[M.Dancer]

I agree. If this majority serves until the fall of '09, a 50-50 proposition at this point, then the lines between minority and majority really blur.

Harper and Martin both had the chance create a new standard for minority government in this country.

Martin dithered his chance away. But Harper has doing well with it and has a very good shot of being the third longest minority government in Canadian history.

I don't think it will survive 07. Dion is itching for a chance and Layton hasn't been in the news for awhile so he anxious to regain some media attention.

.....maybe he will speak on the plight of panhandlers......

[Michael Bluth]

I don't think it will survive 07. Dion is itching for a chance and Layton hasn't been in the news for awhile so he anxious to regain some media attention.

.....maybe he will speak on the plight of panhandlers......

But they still need Duceppe to bring down the Government.

It's the combination of the three that really makes things tough.

Take a look at the calendar though. When Parliament gets prorogued it provides a pretty short window to bring the Government down in '07. The house will only sit for five or six weeks total for the rest of the year.

Once we get through the next budget the story becomes why bother with an election so close to the fixed date.

[jdobbin]

But they still need Duceppe to bring down the Government.

It's the combination of the three that really makes things tough.

Duceppe is not going to bring down the government as long as money keeps being delivered that he can take credit for. In his desire to win support in Quebec by increasing the flow of money in transfers, military spending and the Nunavik agreement, Harper has removed the threat of Duceppe voting with the Opposition to bring down the government but helped the BQ gain support.

The numbers don't lie. The BQ have recovered some of their lost support at the expense of the federalists. The Tories and the Liberals are tied in Decima's poll, Tories are up one point on the Liberals in SES. BQ are comfortably ahead. Why? Because it looks like they are able to influence higher spending in Quebec with this minority government.

[Michael Bluth]

The numbers don't lie.

Only the way in which they are presented an interpreted.

[jdobbin]

Only the way in which they are presented an interpreted.

How about increased versus decreased support? Or do you interpret that differently?

Edited August 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

How about increased versus decreased support? Or do you interpret that differently?

The interpretation for the reason of increased or decreased support.

[jdobbin]

The interpretation for the reason of increased or decreased support.

I'm just dying to hear why you think support for the BQ has jumped from 35 to 41% in Quebec in the SES poll. NDP and Liberal support have dipped but why is it that the BQ benefits and the Tories are in third place?

And my mistake, the Liberals are ahead of the Tories in Quebec, not the other way around.

Edited August 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

I'm just dying to hear why you think support for the BQ has jumped from 35 to 41% in Quebec in the SES poll. NDP and Liberal support have dipped but why is it that the BQ benefits and the Tories are in third place?

Hmm from the May SES poll to this one the CPC and BQ both picked up six points. While the corresponding 12 point drop was spread between the Liberals, NDP and Greens.

This is a perfect example of a misleading representation.

The BQ and the CPC both gain six points. For the BQ it is characterized as a jump while the same gain for the CPC isn't mentioned. What is to gain in characterizing the exact same result so differently?

As to an explanation why the BQ has made gains? There is a coalescing of Nationalist votes with the BQ. Federalists are still split evenly between the CPC and the LPC. Which isn't a good situation for the Liberals. Just as the CPC needs to show strength in the West, the LPC needs to show strength in Quebec.

[jdobbin]

Latest political poll for Ontario.

http://communities.canada.com/nationalpost...own-in-gta.aspx

Dalton McGuinty's Liberals are surging in the GTA, putting a second majority government within their reach, according to a poll released today.

“You’ve got the Liberals taking 905 and Toronto and that’s where the breadbasket of seats are,” said John Wright, senior vice-president for polling firm Ipsos Reid. “It’s shaping up to have some momentum for the Liberals slightly in the last three weeks.”

Lee Greenberg of CanWest News Service reports that while John Tory’s opposition Conservatives gain elsewhere in the province, support for the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area moved up six points since June, to 44 per cent from 38 per cent, according to the Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service and Global Television.

Tory support in the GTA dropped five points, to 34 per cent, over the same period.

I have no idea what the issues are in Ontario but it appears that momentum is with the provincial Liberals.

[M.Dancer]

Latest political poll for Ontario.

http://communities.canada.com/nationalpost...own-in-gta.aspx

I have no idea what the issues are in Ontario but it appears that momentum is with the provincial Liberals.

I think it may have to do with the oppositions lack of discernable personalities. When one leader (Howard Hampton has all the charm of a poached egg and the other, Tory, a well known former operative of a despised cable company, you would really have to be so much worse to do much worse.

Still, I predict the race will be close. McGuinty has managed to do just about absolutely nothing about absolutely everything, fulfilling the maxim ..."he who governs least governs best" .........and at the same time proving it to be untrue.

[jbg]

Isn't it also true that Ontario usually goes opposite the Federal trend in government, i.e. when the Feds have a LPOC or NDP government (the latter admittedly rare) Ontario goes Progressive Conservative, and that when the Feds have a Progressive Conservative or Conservative government Ontario goes Liberal?

[M.Dancer]

Isn't it also true that Ontario usually goes opposite the Federal trend in government, i.e. when the Feds have a LPOC or NDP government (the latter admittedly rare) Ontario goes Progressive Conservative, and that when the Feds have a Progressive Conservative or Conservative government Ontario goes Liberal?

Not necessarily. Ontario for the past umpteen years was dominated by the Conservatives, whether the fed conservatives were in or out. The past 20 years we have seen 2 liberal and one NDP government.

[Michael Bluth]

Isn't it also true that Ontario usually goes opposite the Federal trend in government, i.e. when the Feds have a LPOC or NDP government (the latter admittedly rare) Ontario goes Progressive Conservative, and that when the Feds have a Progressive Conservative or Conservative government Ontario goes Liberal?

Don't you have Wikipedia in the US? Look it up for crying out loud!

It could appear that way. The Provincial PCs have had a more durable hegemony over power in Ontario than have the Liberals federally.

Edited August 22, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

Angus Reid poll on Canadian public reaction to Conservative policy on the Arctic.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/16933

Adults in Canada are divided on the way their current federal administration will deal with the Arctic, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 44 per cent of respondents express confidence in the government of Stephen Harper to secure Canada’s Arctic sovereignty, while 43 per cent do not.

Here are the breakdowns.

http://www.angus-reid.com/admin/collateral.../ARS_Arctic.pdf

Quebec has the highest support for the plan. They have long wanted to make sure they are the leading supplier to Nunavut rather than Churchill, Manitoba. I suspect the feeling in that province is that the deal will be beneficial to them since it bypasses Churchill.

The strongest rejection of Harper's Arctic policy comes from Alberta where nearly 6 out of 10 people don't think Harper is doing enough.

Support from women is fairly low consistently throughout the country.

Edited August 22, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Also released today is the Angus Reid poll on support for a mission to Darfur.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/16946

Many adults in Canada believe their soldiers should be deployed to the troubled Sudanese region of Darfur, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 48 per cent of respondents would support sending Canadian troops for military support if the United Nations (UN) requests them.

Peter MacKay's choice of sending financial aid was regarded as insufficient.

It was rejected by 52% of respondents.

Nearly 64% of Canadians believe that Canada has extended itself to too many missions abroad.

A majority in every province support sending troops to Darfur if the U.N. asks.

Here are the breakdowns.

http://www.angus-reid.com/admin/collateral.../ARS_Darfur.pdf

[M.Dancer]

Also released today is the Angus Reid poll on support for a mission to Darfur.

I wonder how many Canadians would support a mission to Darfur knowing that it would mean the probable killing of blacks.

Most people don't know what's going on there, the level of support shown in any poll on the subject is meaningless.

[jdobbin]

I wonder how many Canadians would support a mission to Darfur knowing that it would mean the probable killing of blacks.

Most people don't know what's going on there, the level of support shown in any poll on the subject is meaningless.

I've said a number of times that I am not convinced the Angus Reid polls done online are very accurate.

However, having said that, there have been other polls out there that have shown concern about Darfur. Given the support Canadians have shown for traditional peacekeeping, you can see why this sort of mission might appeal to them.

Edited August 22, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

Given the support Canadians have shown for traditional peacekeeping, you can see why this sort of mission might appeal to them.

Hence my belief that Darfor is misunderstood by Canadians. There is nothing about a Darfor mission that resembles "traditional peacekeeping".

Traditional Peacekeeping relies on the premise that both sides wnat peace aznd both sides want the security of a buffer force between them.

To my knowledge, those prerequisites are not there. Instead we have traditional peacemaking, where we attempt to beat the snot out of anyone who breaks the peace. Mind you, I do not oppose either missions, I just don't think Canadians will feel comfortable killing black people.

[jdobbin]

Traditional Peacekeeping relies on the premise that both sides wnat peace aznd both sides want the security of a buffer force between them.

To my knowledge, those prerequisites are not there. Instead we have traditional peacemaking, where we attempt to beat the snot out of anyone who breaks the peace. Mind you, I do not oppose either missions, I just don't think Canadians will feel comfortable killing black people.

My belief is that the troops and militias of Sudan are not really up for fight with well armed and trained troops. I could be wrong but I don't sense they will resort to suicide bombs, IEDs or the like. There may be clashes but I don't think they will come close to Afghanistan or the former Yugoslavia.

[Keepitsimple]

My belief is that the troops and militias of Sudan are not really up for fight with well armed and trained troops. I could be wrong but I don't sense they will resort to suicide bombs, IEDs or the like. There may be clashes but I don't think they will come close to Afghanistan or the former Yugoslavia.

Sorry....but anywhere you find a conflict where Islam is involved, Al Quaeda will be watching closely. Even though Muslims are killing Muslims in Darfur, if Western forces "desecrate" Islamic soil, Al Quaeda's murderous presence would soon be felt - along with all the bloody beheadings and roadside bombs. Although the Western world does not want the so-called "war on terror" to be a war against Islam - Al Quaeda encourages it. They want to weaken and divide Western society - the non-believers - the infidels - the blasphemers. They measure time differently than the West. We tend to lurch from election to election - Al Quaeda has all the time in the world and while we fight among ourselves, arguing whether this "war" is worth it - they are consolidating their fear campaign and religious fervour.....and country by country, from the inside out, they want an Islamic Caliphate that will rule the world - even if it takes 200 years.