Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

So VK you want to address why the Liberals are where they are?

Half the posts on this site do exactly that. Dion must redouble his efforts to learn conversational English - Harper successfully took a crash program in French. Decency and integrity are not enough, only fluent bilingualism will qualify a contender.

Btw, I forgot to mention another storm cloud on the horizon for Tories. The latest manifestation of Quebec's nationalist agenda will be a demand to open up medicare into a formal two tier system. This has the potential to be huge. Montreal, already home to numerous private clinics, is poised to lead the nation in for-profit medicine. I cannot see any upside for the federal govt on this issue.

It must be galling for Tories on the heels of pumping extra billions into the province - probably at the cost of lost votes elsewhere - only to be rewarded with an impossible medicare issue.

Early prediction: another point or two shaved off the Conservative total.

[jdobbin]

I disagree, I tend to agree with the political analysts who predict January 2006, the sequel. People were starting to warm up to Harper for a while and there was all talks of an impending election, but for whatever reason, things cooled down again. Meanwhile, Dion didn't manage to get people warmed up to him either and as we can see neither party is now pushing too much for an election.

It's all personal opinion and speculation here, but I'm guessing Harper's environmental policies aren't sitting too well with people while his attack ads have them worried about Dion as a prime minister.

If the Tories thought they were anywhere near a majority or thought Dion was going to crumble to dust in an election over the the mighty Tory ads, they would have called the election this spring.

I think you are totally correct that what we are seeing is a repeat of the election results.

Dion is in the position Harper was in summer of 2005. He will have to get out and fund raise, talk to people so that they hear him on a personal level, recruit more candidates and come up with a campaign that resonates. An election could come any time in the fall depending on whether the rest of the Opposition sees an opportunity to make gains.

[Michael Bluth]

Dion is in the position Harper was in summer of 2005. He will have to get out and fund raise, talk to people so that they hear him on a personal level, recruit more candidates and come up with a campaign that resonates. An election could come any time in the fall depending on whether the rest of the Opposition sees an opportunity to make gains.

He's probably going to have to learn English well enough to talk to voters in most of the country.

[BC_chick]

He will have to get out and fund raise, talk to people so that they hear him on a personal level, recruit more candidates and come up with a campaign that resonates.

And he'll pull it off, we need to see more of that.....

I hate to admit it, but even though the attack ads were shrewd and unethical (given that it wasn't even election time), I gotta hand it to Harper, politically, they were brilliant.

I rooted for Dion from the beginning during the convention because I just couldn't see the leader of the Liberal Party being a former NDPer who sank Ontario's economy, or a guy who supported the Iraq war and torture. Dion was a safe bet, a man of integrity whose values could very well be shared by most Canadians.

Then came the attacks and he dropped a good 10 points practically overnight. Even I - who had supported him throughout his leadership bid - was wondering if he could pull it off. Now imagine how the people who don't follow politics would have perceived those ads. Think about it, absolutely NOTHING had happened since the convention to show that Dion was incapable of becoming prime minister... other than those malicious (yet genius depending on whom you ask) attack ads.

The good news, however, is that the damage is done. Even many conservatives are starting to say that they should cool off with the attacks because it'll start to work against them. The more you attack your opponent instead of talking about your own strengths, the more you look like an incompetent jerk - just look at what happened to Paul Martin when he went overboard with that tactic.

Harper's getting his first dose of serious criticism, both abroad as well as domestically. He's better off reminding Canadians why he's the right man for the job the way he did during the 2006 election instead of focusing on why Dion is the wrong man.

Dion, on the other hand, will benefit from the same strategy that won Harper his federal election - and that's to reach out at a grass roots level while allowing your opponent to sink himself by relishing in nothing but spiteful negativity.

[jdobbin]

And he'll pull it off, we need to see more of that.....

I hate to admit it, but even though the attack ads were shrewd and unethical (given that it wasn't even election time), I gotta hand it to Harper, politically, they were brilliant.

I rooted for Dion from the beginning during the convention because I just couldn't see the leader of the Liberal Party being a former NDPer who sank Ontario's economy, or a guy who supported the Iraq war and torture. Dion was a safe bet, a man of integrity whose values could very well be shared by most Canadians.

Then came the attacks and he dropped a good 10 points practically overnight. Even I - who had supported him throughout his leadership bid - was wondering if he could pull it off. Now imagine how the people who don't follow politics would have perceived those ads. Think about it, absolutely NOTHING had happened since the convention to show that Dion was incapable of becoming prime minister... other than those malicious (yet genius depending on whom you ask) attack ads.

The good news, however, is that the damage is done. Even many conservatives are starting to say that they should cool off with the attacks because it'll start to work against them. The more you attack your opponent instead of talking about your own strengths, the more you look like an incompetent jerk - just look at what happened to Paul Martin when he went overboard with that tactic.

Harper's getting his first dose of serious criticism, both abroad as well as domestically. He's better off reminding Canadians why he's the right man for the job the way he did during the 2006 election instead of focusing on why Dion is the wrong man.

Dion, on the other hand, will benefit from the same strategy that won Harper his federal election - and that's to reach out at a grass roots level while allowing your opponent to sink himself by relishing in nothing but spiteful negativity.

I had no particular preference. I liked a few of the candidates like Kennedy but knew that his lack of French was probably an impediment to winning this time around. I was prepared to give any new leader some time to adjust and Dion has stabilized Liberal support and has been more than effective in the last number of weeks.

I think the summer will be an important time for the Liberals to build on that support and reform their fundraising top to bottom and come up with a strategy. The Tories will probably take the time to do come up with some more policy ideas for a Fall session. In a minority government, they will have to be thinking of what is achievable or they will start looking ineffective.

[jdobbin]

Latest opinion poll on popularity of the leaders in Canada.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/16007

A television spot authorized by the Conservative party which questions Liberal leader Stéphane Dion has affected the views of Canadians on their prime minister, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 33 per cent of respondents say their opinion of Conservative leader Stephen Harper has worsened, while 24 per cent feel the same way about Dion.

The survey allowed respondents to watch the advertisement in their computers through an embedded video link. The television spot claims Dion "can’t even get his own Liberal senators to pass a bill limiting Senate terms." 47 per cent of respondents think the ad is not a fair and accurate representation of Dion.

On May 29, the advertisement was unveiled in Ottawa. Conservative government House leader Peter Van Loan said the television spot intends to showcase the inclination of Liberal politicians to tender "entitlements for a privileged few." The advertisement closes with the phrase: "Stéphane Dion is not a leader." 52 per cent of respondents agree with this statement.

Looks like the negative ad had more of an affect on the views people had of Harper than the other way around.

[Catchme]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

[gc1765]

33 per cent of respondents say their opinion of Conservative leader Stephen Harper has worsened, while 24 per cent feel the same way about Dion.

Does this mean that the ads are doing more harm than good?

[Michael Bluth]

33 per cent of respondents say their opinion of Conservative leader Stephen Harper has worsened, while 24 per cent feel the same way about Dion.

Does this mean that the ads are doing more harm than good?

Harper is still the most popular National leader.

Maybe it's worth whatver harm may be out there?

[jdobbin]

Does this mean that the ads are doing more harm than good?

That would appear to be the gist of the poll. Harper's support has worsened because of the ads.

[Michael Bluth]

Here is the key to that poll.

Stéphane Dion is not a leader. Agree - 52%

Now that he has been defined for a majority of the population it will take a lot to change the public's opinion of him.

[BC_chick]

Harper is still the most popular National leader.

Unfortunately, that doesn't say much when you consider who people say they would vote for if an election were held today.

IMO, European conservative leaders have it right - fiscally conservative, social liberals who don't make the environment a political issue.

Harper could've easily be in majority territory right now if he'd taken a little more of that same approach.

[gc1765]

Maybe it's worth whatver harm may be out there?

They are wasting their money. I guess having more money than the Liberals is actually a bad thing.

[geoffrey]

IMO, European conservative leaders have it right - fiscally conservative, social liberals who don't make the environment a political issue.

Harper could've easily be in majority territory right now if he'd taken a little more of that same approach.

Dion may be advised to follow a similar path. I'd hate to see him run on his record on the environment.

[speaker]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

Shhh, don't tell them.

[jbg]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

And what do you consider "American style politics"? Or is that another random attack on the United States?

[Michael Bluth]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

And what do you consider "American style politics"? Or is that another random attack on the United States?

"Soldiers. In our streets. With guns. We aren't making this up."

That would be American-style politics to me.

Ohhh wait it can't be. It can't be it comes from the Liberals.

And no American party acting at the National level would produce such bush league ads.

Guess you're right, it's just another random attack on the United States.

[margrace]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

And what do you consider "American style politics"? Or is that another random attack on the United States?

Evidently you do not know the average Canadian. It is not an attack on the US it is a statement of fact whether it fits your view or not. Basically I think a lot of Americans have no idea of Canadians and the fact that we are different.

[Michael Bluth]

IMO, European conservative leaders have it right - fiscally conservative, social liberals who don't make the environment a political issue.

Harper could've easily be in majority territory right now if he'd taken a little more of that same approach.

Dion may be advised to follow a similar path. I'd hate to see him run on his record on the environment.

You are right. Dion could easily be in majority territory if he had taken a little more of the same approach, and actually done something on the environment.

[margrace]

Basically Dion and Harper or at least their parties are in bed together with big business. Toss em in the air and they will come down together

[jdobbin]

Harper could've easily be in majority territory right now if he'd taken a little more of that same approach.

Harper has always been worried about loose lips from his people sinking them. It turns out that he is mostly the cause of his own problems when he doesn't rise above partisanship and accuses the Opposition of being supportive of the Taliban. I think his poll ratings dropped like a stone the next week.

[stignasty]

Support for the federal Conservatives in the Atlantic provinces dropped significantly this spring, a new poll suggests, and anger over Prime Minister Stephen Harper's handling of the Atlantic Accord issue could be to blame.

Results of the Corporate Research Associates poll suggest satisfaction with Harper's Tories dropped across the region, but markedly so in Nova Scotia and especially in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only 17 per cent of Newfoundland and Labrador respondents in the poll conducted over three weeks in May said they were completely or mostly satisfied with the Conservatives' performance, down sharply from 47 per cent in February.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labr...antic-poll.html

[Shakeyhands]

Wonder when the CPC American strategists are going to realize American style politics does work in Canada?

And what do you consider "American style politics"? Or is that another random attack on the United States?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/527_group

American politics is beseiged by negative ads attacking the people, the two worst I have seen were the Republican/527 Group attacks on Kerry and the Bush team attacks on McCain.

Canadians, no matter what their political stripe, don't want these kinds of politics, and yes both major parties have been guilty of it to at least some extent, some worse.

[jdobbin]

Support for the federal Conservatives in the Atlantic provinces dropped significantly this spring, a new poll suggests, and anger over Prime Minister Stephen Harper's handling of the Atlantic Accord issue could be to blame.

Results of the Corporate Research Associates poll suggest satisfaction with Harper's Tories dropped across the region, but markedly so in Nova Scotia and especially in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only 17 per cent of Newfoundland and Labrador respondents in the poll conducted over three weeks in May said they were completely or mostly satisfied with the Conservatives' performance, down sharply from 47 per cent in February.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labr...antic-poll.html

I don't think anyone should be surprised at the polls in those areas. I think Harper made it clear what he thinks of the Martimes a long time ago. And now, he reneges on a deal that he himself supported. I think we might see a few Tories go down in flames in those provinces.

[ScottSA]

Harper is Beelzebub! He is Satan with an expensive hairdresser who adorns his horns at taxpayer's expense! He wants to pollute, to make us all into fundamentalist Christians, to put troops in the streets! He is the AntiChrist!