Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Unfortunately, Dion was lower than Harper and Layton in being crediable on the environment in a poll a few weeks back. That's pretty damned sad. Even I could be more credible speaking on climate change than Harper.

The Conservatives might not be the best on the environment in policy, but we know the Liberals are failures in results.

I absolutely agree. The Liberal environment plan was doing nothing to reduce emissions.

Having said that, the Conservative plan was not recognized as being credible either. If it had, the Tories wouldn't be languishing in the polls like they are.

[Michael Bluth]

It remains to be seen whether May can translate widespread support into some seat wins. It is a tough situation to be in.

At the moment, the Sun newspaper chain basically confirms what I said several days ago: the Liberals are in ballpark territory when it comes to a minority.

The Liberals have to translate that support.

Right or wrong, it appears that any movement to the Liberals has been a result of Conservative actions, not any strong affiliation with the Liberals.

If Harper can deal effectively with Afghanistan then a number of those votes will come back.

Say what you will about him, but his tactical decision making is the reason he is in the PMO right now.

[Fortunata]

Say what you will about him, but his tactical decision making is the reason he is in the PMO right now.

I disagree. The reason Steve is PM right now is because of Liberal actions, not voter trust. Too many scandals, the tipping point being the very public declaration by the RCMP of an investigation into Ralph Goodale. If it hadn't been for that voters would have not gone to the Steve party.

[normanchateau]

Say what you will about him, but his tactical decision making is the reason he is in the PMO right now.

I disagree. The reason Steve is PM right now is because of Liberal actions, not voter trust. Too many scandals, the tipping point being the very public declaration by the RCMP of an investigation into Ralph Goodale.

The Liberals were so unpopular when Harper won, that it's a miracle that the Conservatives did not win a majority. If CPC weren't saddled with a socially conservative leader, they could have attained that majority.

But they remain in denial that its Harper himself who prevents them from a majority.

[Michael Bluth]

The Liberals were so unpopular when Harper won, that it's a miracle that the Conservatives did not win a majority. If CPC weren't saddled with a socially conservative leader, they could have attained that majority.

Yes, it's the old scary scary scary once more again.

Who is a potential CPC leader you don't think is socially conservative?

Would you vote for the CPC if he was the leader?

[jdobbin]

I disagree. The reason Steve is PM right now is because of Liberal actions, not voter trust. Too many scandals, the tipping point being the very public declaration by the RCMP of an investigation into Ralph Goodale. If it hadn't been for that voters would have not gone to the Steve party.

The compelling factor for the vote last time was people "voting against" something rather than "voting for."

It may end that way this time as well. The discontent over Afghanistan and a myriad of other issues could bring down and defeat a minority government.

[jdobbin]

But they remain in denial that its Harper himself who prevents them from a majority.

I think Harper's mouth has hurt them a few times as they neared majority numbers. I think the statement that the Liberals were in support of the Taliban is the type of tactic that Canadians bristle at. Certainly, the next week after the statement, Conservative support dropped sharply as people's feelings on Afghanistan became quite pointed.

[Vancouver King]

But they remain in denial that its Harper himself who prevents them from a majority.

I think Harper's mouth has hurt them a few times as they neared majority numbers. I think the statement that the Liberals were in support of the Taliban is the type of tactic that Canadians bristle at. Certainly, the next week after the statement, Conservative support dropped sharply as people's feelings on Afghanistan became quite pointed.

Could he be the most unlikeable PM in Canadian history?

[jdobbin]

Could he be the most unlikeable PM in Canadian history?

I think we need to look at things as being unpopular and unlikeable.

Chretien did many unpopular things but he was likeable with a certain percentage of the population. It helped him carry the day a lot of time.

Harper is unlikeable but popular with a certain percentage of the population. It has helped him carry the day as well.

What we have being seeing lately is an *issue* or two where Harper is on the wrong side of Canadian opinion. Since he has no likeable reserve to draw upon, his overall popularity has dropped.

[sharkman]

Could he be the most unlikeable PM in Canadian history?

He hasn't been in power long enough to build up a real following of haters like PET or Mulroney. You are only thinking wishfully.

[jbg]

The Liberals were so unpopular when Harper won, that it's a miracle that the Conservatives did not win a majority. If CPC weren't saddled with a socially conservative leader, they could have attained that majority.

Yes, it's the old scary scary scary once more again.

Who is a potential CPC leader you don't think is socially conservative?

Would you vote for the CPC if he was the leader?

Harper Derangement Syndrome

[normanchateau]

Could he be the most unlikeable PM in Canadian history?

He hasn't been in power long enough to build up a real following of haters like PET or Mulroney.

I agree. Harper still has enough time to change his image and become likeable. The more important question is whether he has the time to change his image of hypocrisy and incompetence.

[Michael Bluth]

The more important question is whether he has the time to change his image of hypocrisy and incompetence.

This supposed image of hypocrisy and incompetence appears to be fictitious.

If it were would Harper be selected by 42.2% of Canadians as the best Prime Minister?

That's a poll in which Stephane Dion got a whopping 16.7% support. Link

[jbg]

I agree. Harper still has enough time to change his image and become likeable. The more important question is whether he has the time to change his image of hypocrisy and incompetence.

You might not like him. To call him incompetent is about as accurate as saying he has brown eyes.

[scribblet]

This supposed image of hypocrisy and incompetence appears to be fictitious.

If it were would Harper be selected by 42.2% of Canadians as the best Prime Minister?

That's a poll in which Stephane Dion got a whopping 16.7% support. Link

He's baiting, don't fall for it. Some people have a perpetual hate on for him, all part of HDR, but incompetent he ain't. He's actually accomplished quite a bit for a minority gov't. Other than that I'm not falling for the bait.

[normanchateau]

The more important question is whether he has the time to change his image of hypocrisy and incompetence.

This supposed image of hypocrisy and incompetence appears to be fictitious.

If it were would Harper be selected by 42.2% of Canadians as the best Prime Minister?

That's a poll in which Stephane Dion got a whopping 16.7% support. Link

That poll was held when the Conservatives were at 40%. Now they're tied with the Liberals.

[normanchateau]

This supposed image of hypocrisy and incompetence appears to be fictitious.

If it were would Harper be selected by 42.2% of Canadians as the best Prime Minister?

That's a poll in which Stephane Dion got a whopping 16.7% support. Link

but incompetent he ain't.

No more than Gordon O'Connor.

[jdobbin]

That poll was held when the Conservatives were at 40%. Now they're tied with the Liberals.

With further polls showing a majority rejecting Afghanistan and how it has been handled.

[Vancouver King]

For poll addicts here's another fix.

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/index.html

Liberals - 32

Conservatives - 31

NDP - 17

Green - 9

The main message from this Ipsos-Reid effort is Tory support is falling substantially in the far west. In B.C. it is off an eye-opening 19%'

This regional breakdown was my highlight:

"In B.C., the NDP surged 15 points ahead inti the lead with 30% support, followed by the Liberals at 29%, the Tories at 24%, and the Greens at 16 per cent. While that province (B.C.) tends to be a bit volatile, it's by no mistake that the drop (in support for the Conservatives) comes in probably the most eco-concious part of the country and comes right on the heels of the Tory (environment) plan, said Wright (Ipsos-Reid). "I think the public is really anxious about climate change and believes that this (plan) is pretty sub-standard stuff."

[jdobbin]

Liberals - 32

Conservatives - 31

NDP - 17

Green - 9

The main message from this Ipsos-Reid effort is Tory support is falling substantially in the far west. In B.C. it is off an eye-opening 19%'

This is now the third poll out in two weeks that has the Liberals ahead by 1%, a statistical tie.

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix...24-0c35cbc179bc

This poll still has the Tories ahead of the Liberals in Quebec but behind the BQ. We'll have to see what Duceppe leaving does for overall numbers.

[jdobbin]

The latest trends in Canadian polls courtesy of Canadian Press and Decima:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...13?hub=Politics

The conventional wisdom about the standing of the national party leaders is also somewhat at odds with the reality. Stephen Harper's negatives are higher than those of other national leaders, but his positives are about 10 points better than his party's vote. He's made inroads in Quebec, and his net popularity (positives minus negatives) is actually better among French Canadians than among English Canadians.

Stephane Dion's image has been damaged in recent months, but his numbers are very close to those of Harper's. His popularity is better than the prime minister's in Ontario, but worse in Quebec.

The NDP has its challenges, but the party has a popular leader. Jack Layton has better ratings than any of his national competitors, and is second only to Gilles Duceppe in Quebec.

Elizabeth May has managed to create an impression among the majority of the Canadian electorate, and most of those impressions are good. She has a truly remarkable rating among voters under 25. May shares a distinction with Layton: more voters say their opinion is improving rather than fading of both leaders.

There have been many changes since the election.

Given this new competitiveness, its useful to take a look at what sort of shifting among parties has been going on. We've analyzed our last 7000 surveys on voting intention (between March 22 and May 7), and here's what we see:

* The Conservatives have done better at retaining the support of those who voted for them in 2006, losing only 15 per cent of their supporters. The lost points went to the Liberals (six per cent), the NDP (four per cent) the Green Party (three per cent) and the BQ (one per cent).

* The Liberals have lost 22 per cent of their 2006 voters. Ten per cent went to the Conservatives, five to the NDP, five to the Greens and just one per cent to the BQ.

* The BQ has lost 23 per cent of its support, with six per cent siphoned off by the Conservatives, six per cent to the Greens, five per cent to the NDP, and only three to the Liberals.

* The NDP has lost a quarter of its support an even 25 per cent. Ten per cent went to the Liberals, seven per cent to the Greens, 5 per cent to the Conservatives, and 1% to the BQ.

[geoffrey]

So it does show that the right wing liberals are fleeing and they are being overrun by NDP radicals?

[jdobbin]

So it does show that the right wing liberals are fleeing and they are being overrun by NDP radicals?

I looked at that as well. It is hard to get a bead on what is happening. I can't recall a time when the vote was so fluid.

The last four polls have had the Liberals and the Tories in a tie. It will be interesting to see if the Green or NDP support is softer than what it appears.

[geoffrey]

I think this is an important point from the article:

Voters have noticed, and have begun to wonder how much it really matters if they get a majority or minority government, of a red or a blue stripe, or whether they really risk anything by casting their vote for one of the smaller parties.

That's where I am at right now. Why should I care, I get the same no matter what.

[Vancouver King]

I think this is an important point from the article:

Voters have noticed, and have begun to wonder how much it really matters if they get a majority or minority government, of a red or a blue stripe, or whether they really risk anything by casting their vote for one of the smaller parties.

That's where I am at right now. Why should I care, I get the same no matter what.

...And this is where the Canadian people are right now:

"It's not news that most Canadians are pragmatic centrists".

Not an electorate that wants to privatize gov't, rule for the rich and exclude/stigmatize some social groups. Most Canadians are not far right extremists. Thus Harper's actions in dragging his party, kicking and screaming, towards middle ground.