Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

There are so many polls, coming out I am getting confused. Is the online poll the one that has the Conservatives near 40% and the Greens at 8%?

That's correct. I am inclined to believe that Greens support is more in keeping with the rest of the telephone polls conducted which means double digit 10 to 13%

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, is a telephone (that far too many don't answer now) any better than a computer screen?

My quibble is that the claim of a sample of 3000 is misleading. To get a non-random, representative sample, Angus Reid obtained responses from 3000 people. That's not the same as a random sample of 3000 people.

Random sampling in Canada is now impossible. Anyone who claims to do it is lying.

Telephones are in more homes that Internet. It is why many companies still prefer to use them for market polling.

Online polling so far has shown itself to be far less accurate. The Angus Reid poll was also of only decided voters. No account for the undecided. There were no indication of how many times they are they right ie: 19 times out 20.

[mcqueen625]

Despite Harper's failure to consolidate popularity in central Canada and growing concerns about the war in Afghanistan, especially among Quebecers, the Conservatives have the backing of 38.7 per cent of decided voters nationally.

The Liberals, in the midst of a leadership race, trail with 28.8 per cent, followed by the New Democrats with 17 per cent, according to the survey by EKOS Research Associates Inc. for the Toronto Star and La Presse.

....

And in Quebec, Conservative support is stuck at 25.9 per cent, compared to 34.9 per cent for the Bloc. And, among Quebecers, Liberals are showing a bit of improvement and now stand at 19.7 per cent, EKOS says.

Toronto Star

IOW, the Tories are exactly where they were on election day, both in Quebec and across Canada.

This is good news for Harper. In particular, the Quebec support is likely concentrated meaning that it will generate seats.

Afghanistan and Lebanon are not decisive issues. If Harper puts forward intelligent environmental and gun legislation - along with a good budget - then the Tories will be hard to beat.

You wish! The poll they announced today states that the honeymoon period for the Liberals is over since Dion took over the leadership if the Liberals and even in vote rich Ontario the Conservatives are leading the Liberals. This does bode well for the Liberals because it means that the Liberals miscalculated by naming another Quebecer as leader, and especially someone who speaks English worse than Chretien, and that is saying something.

Now would be a good time for the Tories to trigger an election, which may be why the Liberals and the NDP do not want certain fiscal measures tied to the Budget, they want them tabled separately so that they can defeat them, without causing an election. I think that the Liberals as well as the NDP know full well that Canadians so far like what they see regarding the direction the Conservatives would like to take Canada, especially putting more money into the hands of Canadians, and they know they are going to lose seats to the Conservatives to the point that the Conservatives are going to have a majority.

[geoffrey]

There were no indication of how many times they are they right ie: 19 times out 20.

You can derive that from their sample size and their indictated margin of error.

[jdobbin]

You can derive that from their sample size and their indictated margin of error.

Can you determine that from the Angus Reid poll? I'd like to know.

[Argus]

I think the Conservatives might want an election if they feel Afghanistan will hurt them. You should read how the Spanish and South Koreans have reacted to having their soldiers killed. It doesn't give me a lot of faith that NATO and other allies will be there to take over for us on the frontline anytime soon.

Then again, Canadians are NOT south koreans or Spanish are they? After you look through the short term agony of 'death polls' Canadiand 'buck up' if they believe. Canadians have a hard earned reputation of being ferocious warriors..

That was a previous generation. I would not put it past us, especially Quebecers and urbanites from Toronto and Vancouver to squeal like pigs and burst into tears as we run away.

[Argus]

Then again, Canadians are NOT south koreans or Spanish are they? After you look through the short term agony of 'death polls' Canadiand 'buck up' if they believe. Canadians have a hard earned reputation of being ferocious warriors.. Both combatants and civilians. We just need to believe. If we cannot believe in Afghanistan - what conflict CAN we really BELIEVE in?

Support for the mission has always been rather split.

English Canada supports it, French Canada and the immigrants do not.

[jdobbin]

English Canada supports it, French Canada and the immigrants do not.

I've never seen anything that breaks down the ethnicity of the division. Quebec has the lowest support for the mission while Alberta has the highest support. Every other province is split much more evenly.

[jdobbin]

Ipsos Reid poll shows Conservatives still shy of majority.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/st...625d9f8&k=21634

OTTAWA - The federal Conservatives' lead over the Liberals has widened to four points, but the level of their support remains shy of what's needed to put them in majority government territory, a new national poll says.

The poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, said the Conservative support held at 36 per cent for the second consecutive week of polling.

Support for the Liberal party stood at 32 per cent, down two points from its showing in an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted the previous week.

And what did Ipsos think of the online poll?

He questioned, however, the online poll's finding of 40-per-cent support for the Conservatives.

"You can say they are moving in the right direction, but have they moved up to 40 per cent?" he said. "I don't think that's credible. At least not yet."

[Saturn]

There were no indication of how many times they are they right ie: 19 times out 20.

You can derive that from their sample size and their indictated margin of error.

No, you cannot. 1,000 responses means that they contacted 5,000 people, 4,000 of whom did not respond.

Internet self-selected sample surveys are junk. Telephone polls are significantly more accurate but less accurate than they claim to be.

[munsinger]

The bottom line is not so much the numbers of the various polls.......but it's the overall trend, that should have the Liberals worried.

Harper appearing less "scary" to voters

Dion perceived as weak and indecisive, while continuing to give the Cons plenty of ammo to push that line

Lack of coherent policy platform from the Liberals....focusing on failed policies/ flip-flopping

Perception is reality, in politics....

[jdobbin]

The bottom line is not so much the numbers of the various polls.......but it's the overall trend, that should have the Liberals worried.

Harper appearing less "scary" to voters

Dion perceived as weak and indecisive, while continuing to give the Cons plenty of ammo to push that line

Lack of coherent policy platform from the Liberals....focusing on failed policies/ flip-flopping

Perception is reality, in politics....

The overall trend has been a continued minority government. Poll after poll has confirmed that.

[Canuck E Stan]

The overall trend has been a continued minority government. Poll after poll has confirmed that.

Until the latest trend.

Majority within grasp.

Shed a tear for the Dion team and hope the team becomes someone elses.A new leadership that will change the tide of conservative majority.

[jdobbin]

Until the latest trend.

Majority within grasp.

Shed a tear for the Dion team and hope the team becomes someone elses.A new leadership that will change the tide of conservative majority.

What latest trend is that. The Tories keep falling short of the majority number. Pretty much every poll has shown that. The only thing they have done recently is recover number from the Liberals small boost following the leadership campaign.

The Tories are back where they were on election day.

[Canuck E Stan]

The Tories are back where they were on election day.

And the Liberals? And Dion's popularity? Face it dobbin, the avalanche has started with Dion at the helm and is building steam straight downhill.

Dion was a mistake and Liberals know it and Liberals are stunned.

Like the "remove Day from the Alliance leadership days" don't be surprised for a recall of Dion from the leadership. Better hope there isn't an election soon.

[jdobbin]

And the Liberals? And Dion's popularity? Face it dobbin, the avalanche has started with Dion at the helm and is building steam straight downhill.

Dion was a mistake and Liberals know it and Liberals are stunned.

Like the "remove Day from the Alliance leadership days" don't be surprised for a recall of Dion from the leadership. Better hope there isn't an election soon.

The Liberals are down from the election most certainly.

As far as an election goes, I don't see any change from minority status.

[Saturn]

The Liberals are down from the election most certainly.

As far as an election goes, I don't see any change from minority status.

The Liberals were at 30% in the election and around 31-32% at the moment. How is that down? Everyone seems to be where they were in the last election, with the exception of the NDP and the Greens which seem to have traded 3-4%.

[jdobbin]

The Liberals were at 30% in the election and around 31-32% at the moment. How is that down? Everyone seems to be where they were in the last election, with the exception of the NDP and the Greens which seem to have traded 3-4%.

In the rolling polls, you might be right. I was looking at some polls that had them at 26%. However, that is still what they regard as being within the margin or error.

[geoffrey]

What latest trend is that. The Tories keep falling short of the majority number. Pretty much every poll has shown that. The only thing they have done recently is recover number from the Liberals small boost following the leadership campaign.

The Tories are back where they were on election day.

Ah, but the Liberals are worse and led by a leader destined to really reduce those numbers further in an election campaign. What exactly does he stand for again? I suppose it's best to ask the various minority interests fighting for him?

That majority number becomes lower everytime the Liberals drop in support. Splitting the vote amongst the left is going to give the Tories a dozen or so Ontario seats (where their performance is improved and the Liberals are dropping through the floor).

[jdobbin]

Ah, but the Liberals are worse and led by a leader destined to really reduce those numbers further in an election campaign. What exactly does he stand for again? I suppose it's best to ask the various minority interests fighting for him?

That majority number becomes lower everytime the Liberals drop in support. Splitting the vote amongst the left is going to give the Tories a dozen or so Ontario seats (where their performance is improved and the Liberals are dropping through the floor).

It is your opinion that the Liberals are worse off and that a splitting of the vote will happen. Some scenarios raised by pollsters suggest that Green votes are soft and that the NDP might be pushed aside in a battle between Liberals and Tories. How that plays out is hard to say.

[madmax]

It is your opinion that the Liberals are worse off and that a splitting of the vote will happen. Some scenarios raised by pollsters suggest that Green votes are soft and that the NDP might be pushed aside in a battle between Liberals and Tories. How that plays out is hard to say.

You never know what the voter is going to do on election day.

[Catchme]

There is serious doubts about regarding angis reid's online polls of last week that showed the CPC having 40%. It seems they are trying for a bandwagon effect, eh? Nor does it show the Green's advancing.

Ipsos's poll does not bear the numbers out. The margin of error in this poll is 3.1% which again means neck in neck, and no real changes occuring and certainly not a CPC surge. The CPC have also dropped in PQ.

CPC 36%

Liberals 32%

NDP 15%

Bloq 8%

Green 8%

Party fortunes in Quebec - now in the midst of a provincial election - showed the most movement, and the news was good for Liberals.

The party climbed four points to 29 per cent, probably getting a bounce from their leading provincial counterparts in the early stages of the election, Bricker said.

The Bloc dropped four points to 34 per cent, and Stephen Harper's Conservatives dropped three points to 18 per cent.

In Ontario, the Tories and Grits were in a close race.

The Liberals had 39 per cent, down two points from the last survey, while the Tories had 36 per cent, also down two points.

The NDP support was up two points to 15 per cent.

The four-point national spread between the Tories and the Grits in the poll was significantly narrower than the gap shown in two other polls this week.

An online poll by Angus Reid Strategies had the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 14 points. The split was 40 to 26.

That poll also reported the Green party was at 13 per cent, five percentage points higher than the Ipsos-Reid finding.

Bricker pointed to the survey's finding regarding the Green party's support to explain the wide Tory-Liberal spread in the Decima poll.

He said the poll suggests the Greens are pulling support away from the Liberals. Bricker said, however, the Green party traditionally does better in public opinion polling than it does on election day.

He questioned, however, the online poll's finding of 40-per-cent support for the Conservatives.

"You can say they are moving in the right direction, but have they moved up to 40 per cent?" he said. "I don't think that's credible. ..."

The CPC isn't at any 40%

[madmax]

I have had it where they have called, then after asking questions for 15 minutes, say, oh, we have enough of those, and thank me and hang up.

[jbg]

He questioned, however, the online poll's finding of 40-per-cent support for the Conservatives.

"You can say they are moving in the right direction, but have they moved up to 40 per cent?" he said. "I don't think that's credible. ..."

The CPC isn't at any 40%

It's darn close, and given the relative quality of their leaders, I have little doubt as to what would happen in a campaign environment. I can just picture the English-language debates.

[jdobbin]

It's darn close, and given the relative quality of their leaders, I have little doubt as to what would happen in a campaign environment. I can just picture the English-language debates.

It's not close. It is exactly where it was at the time of the election.

As far as the election debates go, Harper has certainly not shown himself to be a wunderkind. The debates have been less and less influential in Canada. And this time, it is possible we'll see a new dynamic with the Green leader.