Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

While it may look like another conservative government at the moment, nothing is for certain as things can change quickly. However so far I haven't really seen much of Dion besides him constantly going on anti-Harper rants. I think most Canadian's aren't really that interested in what he has to offer, because so far he hasn't offered much of anything.

Harper wasn't offering that much in Opposition either. Most of his policies were announced during the campaign.

Parliament goes into a two week break right now. The freeze on the nomination process for the Liberals has ended and they will be moving quickly to fill all their candidate selections. Dion will be out of Ottawa and doing interviews and fundraising. He really needs to go cross country as Harper did in 2004.

Harper didn't get much traction until he criss crossed Canada. In Opposition in Ottawa, the Conservatives remained behind in the polls month after month.

It isn't all bad news for Dion. The polls remain close and and what he needs to do is to begin the election campaign now.

[Canuck E Stan]

The greens taking away support from the libs with support thinly spread is a good thing. They take away votes from the left and it just makes it that much easier for the tories.

Extremely good point.

If the environment is the major concern for Canadians,each time Dion spews on about the environment with his problematic English, people will hear his message, and those who are extremely concerned,and are either, unhappy with the Liberals or their leader's performance on the environment, and are not Torie supporters will look to the Greens or NDP to cast their vote.Throw in the Bloc and you really have a split.

This in turn will minimize the "left" vote and that will allow the Tories to gain in winning closely fought ridings.

Much like the wins that Chretien had when the Conservatives split their vote between the Conservatives and the Alliance parties.

These splits do more for a party that is somewhat "different" from the majority of like thinkers.

It's a problem of having too many political parties in a race.

[jdobbin]

I was linking to Bourques on line leadership poll, I didn't notice it posted here beforel

Not only that, the Conservatives are leading liberals 40% to 38% in ONTARIO - the CBC folks are apoplectic - Liberals could see their numbers go down even more because of the terror vote, so maybe they will have to support the budget and ward off an election.

Funny, I watched the CBC and they just reported the news. I didn't see them crying about anything.

I believe it was Decima's pollster who said the Tories shouldn't be counting their chickens yet. The rolling poll still makes it too close to call.

Moreover, as spring draws closer in Afghanistan, the most recent poll has shown support fall to 50-50 on the Afghanistan mission. Increased casualties could take a toll. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate the poll numbers have been affected by this latest House vote.

[jdobbin]

Extremely good point.

If the environment is the major concern for Canadians,each time Dion spews on about the environment with his problematic English, people will hear his message, and those who are extremely concerned,and are either, unhappy with the Liberals or their leader's performance on the environment, and are not Torie supporters will look to the Greens or NDP to cast their vote.Throw in the Bloc and you really have a split.

This in turn will minimize the "left" vote and that will allow the Tories to gain in winning closely fought ridings.

Much like the wins that Chretien had when the Conservatives split their vote between the Conservatives and the Alliance parties.

These splits do more for a party that is somewhat "different" from the majority of like thinkers.

It's a problem of having too many political parties in a race.

Greens have been taking support away from the Tories in some ridings as well. Closely won seats by Tories could just as easily go as Liberal or NDP ones.

I don't see the Greens as being totally of the left. They are more populist. It is probably why they have such strong support in Alberta. Not nearly enough to win seats there but that is just a reflection of how spread out their vote is. In some Edmonton ridings, it could be a factor. I just haven't seen a big enough sample of the federal voting intentions from a province recently.

[Canuck E Stan]

I don't see the Greens as being totally of the left.

Then you're one of the few,everyone I speak to say they are left of the NDP. Most don't look at the Greens program beyond their environment stance, and many voted for the Greens as a protest vote against the Tories and Liberal parties.

[Riverwind]

Then you're one of the few,everyone I speak to say they are left of the NDP. Most don't look at the Greens program beyond their environment stance, and many voted for the Greens as a protest vote against the Tories and Liberal parties.

Greens sometimes use free market economics to justify the various taxes that they want to introduce. These taxes would provide 'market incentives' that encourage industry to behave in environmentally friendly ways and are preferrable to outright regulations. However, Greens are far left on virtually every other policy from unions and healthcare to aboriginal rights and the welfare state.

[Saturn]

However, Greens are far left on virtually every other policy from unions and healthcare to aboriginal rights and the welfare state.

I thought the CPC was left in sending "childcare" welfare bucks to parents and considering even more don't-wanna-work mommy welfare, which you support. Or when the welfare state gives money to you it's not welfare? It's welfare only when it goes to people other than yourself.

[jdobbin]

Then you're one of the few,everyone I speak to say they are left of the NDP. Most don't look at the Greens program beyond their environment stance, and many voted for the Greens as a protest vote against the Tories and Liberal parties.

A lot of the leadership of the Greens in recent years have been former Conservatives.

I don't who you've been talking to but I assume it is a lot of other Tories.

[Riverwind]

I thought the CPC was left in sending "childcare" welfare bucks to parents and considering even more don't-wanna-work mommy welfare, which you support. Or when the welfare state gives money to you it's not welfare? It's welfare only when it goes to people other than yourself.

I think you contradicted your self - it is only people on the left think that children are best taken away from the parents as soon as possible and place in institutions run by the state. Harper's plan for childcare was distinctly right wing because it recognized the value that stay a home parents provide to society.

[Canuck E Stan]

I don't who you've been talking to but I assume it is a lot of other Tories.

You know what assuming does,don't you?

Unlike "Adam" of the newspaper cartoon I go out of the house for half of the day(work) and get to speak to all kinds of people(political and otherwise).... in person...about all kinds of issues, instead of spending all my time at a computer screen.

[jdobbin]

You know what assuming does,don't you?

Unlike "Adam" of the newspaper cartoon I go out of the house for half of the day(work) and get to speak to all kinds of people(political and otherwise).... in person...about all kinds of issues, instead of spending all my time at a computer screen.

My work day is certainly easy enough to track since I'm not anonymous here like everyone else. People can judge for themselves where I spend my time. I certainly couldn't run a business if I was on the Internet all day.

The Green Party has been made up many Liberals, NDP and Conservative past members. I'm no Green party member but I know enough not to pigeonhole them as only being a left wing party.

[jdobbin]

delete

[Saturn]

I think you contradicted your self - it is only people on the left think that children are best taken away from the parents as soon as possible and place in institutions run by the state.

You'll never go to a hospital/doctor or let your kids go to school then?

Harper's plan for childcare was distinctly right wing because it recognized the value that stay a home parents provide to society.

So single parents and couples on welfare are not welfare bums? I thought that's what the right-wing is arguing.

[Argus]

Dion has been getting bad press, even with the vote in which all Liberal MP's were supposed to vote against extending terror legislation an MP openly defied him. I don't see his leadership really improving unless something miraculous happen's.

Either way though, the Liberal's would have been better off with either Ignatieff, Rae, or Kennedy.

You say that now but during the leadership convention, people were saying all and any Liberal leader was going to do poorly.

Maybe they would have. Ignatieff had no political experience and had been out of the country for 30 years. Rae and Kennedy would have taken the party further to the left, and Rae had his own major baggage.

All four fared poorly in comparison to Harper when people were asked about leadership abilities. But now the choice is even more stark, and Dion is clearly not seen as a strong, decisive leader like Harper.

[Keepitsimple]

An Angus Reid poll was released today. A sampling of over 3000. Period covers Feb. 20-27. Link shows the various breakdowns. National summary is:

Conservatives: 40%

Liberals: 26%

NDP: 15%

Bloc: 10%

Green: 8%

Other: 1%

Link:

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads...s%20Release.pdf

[White Doors]

Nice! The better polls we get leading up to a budget the bigger the tax cuts will be.

[jdobbin]

An Angus Reid poll was released today. A sampling of over 3000. Period covers Feb. 20-27. Link shows the various breakdowns. National summary is:

I am still dubious about online surveys and have felt that way even when the Liberals were in the lead.

First: Internet access just isn't as widely available as telephone coverage is. I've found the online poll numbers differ more strongly than the telephone poll numbers.

I think we'll have to see what SES, Leger and Strategic come up with in the next several days.

[jdobbin]

Nice! The better polls we get leading up to a budget the bigger the tax cuts will be.

What evidence is there of that?

[jdobbin]

Maybe they would have. Ignatieff had no political experience and had been out of the country for 30 years. Rae and Kennedy would have taken the party further to the left, and Rae had his own major baggage.

All four fared poorly in comparison to Harper when people were asked about leadership abilities. But now the choice is even more stark, and Dion is clearly not seen as a strong, decisive leader like Harper.

Opposition leaders have often fared poorly when it came to comparison to the prime minister. Very few manage to run more popular. Examples of that are Ed Boadbent who was the most popular leader but who stood little chance of being prime minister due to where his party stood in popularity.

I don't doubt that if an election were called in the next two weeks that the Tories would win. I'm just not convinced that a majority is a sure bet given the volatility out there. There's a lot of movement happening and it remains to be seen whether the Green vote is soft, whether the NDP vote collapses and whether the Conservative vote is too concentrated in places they already have won.

[Catchme]

An Angus Reid poll was released today. A sampling of over 3000. Period covers Feb. 20-27. Link shows the various breakdowns. National summary is:

I am still dubious about online surveys and have felt that way even when the Liberals were in the lead.

First: Internet access just isn't as widely available as telephone coverage is. I've found the online poll numbers differ more strongly than the telephone poll numbers.

I think we'll have to see what SES, Leger and Strategic come up with in the next several days.

It was an on line poll? Where is the evidence of this?

[White Doors]

Nice! The better polls we get leading up to a budget the bigger the tax cuts will be.

What evidence is there of that?

No evidence. A hunch that he better they are doing in the polls, the more rique the budget will be to 'dare' the liberals to take them down. A good way would be to decrease taxes and maybe lower funding to one dept to give them something to howl about.

Either way, exciting times afoot!

[Catchme]

whitedoors why did you take my quote out of context to suport something you were saying that it did not apply to?

If this Angus reid poll was an on line poll , it has not more significance than a CTV, G&M, Global, on line poll. It would've have been freeped to the max.

[Canadian Blue]

I don't think the conservatives want a quick election, and plus they won't introduce policies simply to get them voted out or else they will be viewed negatively by the public.

It looks like the Green Party could win a few seats, but once again, everything can change within a few weeks.

[White Doors]

whitedoors why did you take my quote out of context to suport something you were saying that it did not apply to?

If this Angus reid poll was an on line poll , it has not more significance than a CTV, G&M, Global, on line poll. It would've have been freeped to the max.

I wasn't responding to you catchme. I was talking with jdobbin.

It's not always about you, you know.

[White Doors]

I don't think the conservatives want a quick election, and plus they won't introduce policies simply to get them voted out or else they will be viewed negatively by the public.

It looks like the Green Party could win a few seats, but once again, everything can change within a few weeks.

They can do it subtely. For example seriously cutting the corporate tax rate to placate the income trust issue.

This will have the anti-business crowd of the far left clammoring for blood and forcing Dion's hand for him.

It would be a good political strategy AND a wise economic move.

See?

Christ, I should be a strategist.