Canadian Political Polls

[luvacuppajoe]

Harper is going to have to revisit the issue of daycare if he is going to appeal to women. That, and a number of other issues not related to economy or justice are going to be important.

I suspect you are right. The $100 a month for childcare was never popular to begin with and in reality is not making a significant difference to most, if anyone.

On the whole, women will vote (either for or against) where it concerns their families on a rather personal basis. I suspect also that Harper is still suffering the hangover of the "scary, dead fish eyes" persona who might secretly bring back an abortion ban, among other things. The recent death penalty issue is a case in point, in particular is how it was introduced without parliamentary debate. The thinking will be, if he can do that now what will he do with a majority?

He's not connecting with women through economic or foreign policies, he needs to switch gears between now and the next election call and head for home, so to speak...and I'm sure he will have to revisit some policy issues in the process.

[betsy]

Yesterday (2 Nov), Duffy revealed the very latest Ipso-Reid poll:

60% Canadians approved the mini-budget.

However despite the gaffes and fiasco of the Liberals, there was no significant change with the Conservatives popularity.

Craig Oliver wonders about the accuracy of the recent polls since he said he feels the difference in the atmosphere. He is betting that the change in that direction will occur in the coming weeks and he is predicting a big jump in Conservatives popularity.

[jdobbin]

Yesterday (2 Nov), Duffy revealed the very latest Ipso-Reid poll:

60% Canadians approved the mini-budget.

However despite the gaffes and fiasco of the Liberals, there was no significant change with the Conservatives popularity.

Craig Oliver wonders about the accuracy of the recent polls since he said he feels the difference in the atmosphere. He is betting that the change in that direction will occur in the coming weeks and he is predicting a big jump in Conservatives popularity.

This poll is already in the thread.

As for Craig Oliver's feeling, I believe we heard the same thing after the last budget but within a few weeks, the Tories had fallen back to lower 30s in the polls. I guess some people can refuse to believe the accuracy of the polls but they have been very consistent over the last two years.

[jbg]

I suspect you are right. The $100 a month for childcare was never popular to begin with and in reality is not making a significant difference to most, if anyone.

If the $100 per month were more like $300 per month it would make a difference. We were paying $300 per four-day week for our nanny back in 2001 when we lowered her duties when our children went to school full time. WEith the non-taxability of that amount, and taking into account recent inflation, that would mean a subsidy of about 40% which would be about right.

At least that's at a level people would notice rather than being "beer and popcorn" money?

[luvacuppajoe]

If the $100 per month were more like $300 per month it would make a difference. We were paying $300 per four-day week for our nanny back in 2001 when we lowered her duties when our children went to school full time. WEith the non-taxability of that amount, and taking into account recent inflation, that would mean a subsidy of about 40% which would be about right.

At least that's at a level people would notice rather than being "beer and popcorn" money?

It certainly would make a difference, but no one will stand for daycare subsidies even in the neighborhood of $3000 a month, especially since the current Daycare Benefit is available to everyone whether they work outside the home or not.

It irritates me that daycare is even on the federal radar, it should rightly belong as a provincial matter but we have the left to thank for convincing the country at large that it is a federal concern, and unfortunately the Tories took the bait and that hook will not be easily dislodged.

If anything, perhaps some tax incentives for business to establish more onsite daycare would be more appropriate, but that's not an easy easy order to fill particularly for smaller businesses. Available space seems to be more of a concern than the means to pay for it, given that sliding scales of provincial subsidies are already available.

I don't know how to sway more women voters, I think at the end of the day the Liberals' used abortion and the scary hidden agenda more to their lasting advantage than we conservatives would like to admit.

Edited November 3, 2007 by luvacuppajoe

[Michael Bluth]

60% Canadians approved the mini-budget.

However despite the gaffes and fiasco of the Liberals, there was no significant change with the Conservatives popularity.

Craig Oliver wonders about the accuracy of the recent polls since he said he feels the difference in the atmosphere. He is betting that the change in that direction will occur in the coming weeks and he is predicting a big jump in Conservatives popularity.

Oliver has been around long enough to get a good feel for these things. I hope no one is questioning his objectivity.

Until Dion can turn things around the Conservatives will stay at the very high 30s as a minimum. Most likely they will start to hold in the low 40s.

Then Dion will cave in to everything they are doing. Wait, he's doing that now.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll on the issues.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071104/...nal/tories_poll

Ninety per cent of respondents expressed approval of the Tories' commitment to fight climate change - 70 per cent said they approved and considered it a priority, while 20 per cent said they approved but felt it wasn't a top priority.

It is worth noting that the poll question did not mention two factors that would likely have driven those numbers down.

The new throne speech explicitly stated that Canada will never meet its Kyoto accord targets, and it also glosses over the fact that little is known about how the government actually intends to reduce greenhouse gases.

Respondents to the survey were simply asked for a reaction to the Tory pledge to implement a national strategy to reduce Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions.

Still, the reaction bodes well for the Tories and suggests there has been no public uproar over their environmental policies.

"I think the government's succeeded in giving people the sense that it wasn't just determined to walk away from Kyoto and not replace it with something else," Anderson said.

"The numbers are telling us that people are open-minded and hopeful that the government is going to show a strong set of environmental credentials going forward. To some degree, the negative that was attaching itself to the Conservative brand has been dissipated."

Afghanistan could be more complicated.

Respondents were massively opposed to the preference stated in the throne speech: remaining in Afghanistan until 2011 in order to complete certain goals, rather than withdrawing in February 2009.

Only 15 per cent approved and called it a priority while another 19 per cent approved and called it a non-priority.

Another 60 per cent either mildly or strongly disapproved.

We'll have to see what the actual details of the environment bill are going to be. This poll indicates that people believe that the Tories are going to do something in regards to Kyoto so they'll be judged according to that.

As for Afghanistan, it will be difficult to change those numbers around.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll on the budget.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071108/...nal/tories_poll

The vast majority of Canadians approved of the Conservative government's Halloween mini-budget, with the income-tax cuts seen as a particular treat, a new poll suggests.

But it's not clear whether the thumbs up from taxpayers will translate into more votes for the Tories.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll - conducted in the three days after the economic update - found that 84 per cent of Canadians supported Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's plan to increase the basic exemption for personal income tax.

Another 83 per cent support the reduction in the personal income tax rate by half a percentage point.

Seventy-six per cent approved of reducing the GST by one percentage point.

The numbers suggested the tax breaks made a positive impact on Conservative fortunes, but not a massive one.

One in four Canadians said the tax cuts would make them more likely to vote Conservative, while 14 per cent said it would have the opposite effect.

"There's a significant number of people who say that they're planning on voting for the Liberal party, the NDP, the Greens and the BQ, who say that these initiatives make them more likely to vote Conservative...It hasn't pushed them completely to the point where they say 'I'm going to vote Conservative,"' said Harris/Decima president Bruce Anderson.

Anderson noted that his latest polling on voting intentions shows the Tories stuck at the same levels over the past couple of weeks - in the mid-30 per cent range. Still, he says there could be future rewards.

It would appear that Dion made the right choice in not bringing down the government over the budget.

[Canuck E Stan]

Latest Decima poll on the budget.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071108/...nal/tories_poll

It would appear that Dion made the right choice in not bringing down the government over the budget.

Don't see that question being asked by the public being polled.

[jdobbin]

Don't see that question being asked by the public being polled.

This is from the article.

The poll also suggests Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was reading the tea leaves correctly when he decided not to force an election over the mini-budget. Sixty-four per cent of Canadians didn't think the economic update was a reason to bring down the government - including 68 per cent of those identified as Liberal supporters.

[jbg]

Latest Decima poll on the budget.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071108/...nal/tories_poll

It would appear that Dion made the right choice in not bringing down the government over the budget.

It would appear that Dion totally lacked principal in not standing by his convictions and doing his job as the Loyal Opposition. The budget is anathema to the Liberal Parties' deeply held principals and he should have tanked the government. I guess his touching solicitude for Canadians' distate for going to the polls trumped mere matters of principal. Edited November 9, 2007 by jbg

[jdobbin]

It would appear that Dion totally lacked principal in not standing by his convictions and doing his job as the Loyal Opposition. The budget is anathema to the Liberal Parties' deeply held principals and he should have tanked the government. I guess his touching solicitude for Canadians' distate for going to the polls trumped mere matters of principal.

Part of being in politics is knowing when to read the people's feelings on a subject. The poll pretty much confirms what Dion and Harper both said: 1.) that people don't want to go the polls just yet; and 2.) they don't want a budget defeated that includes tax cuts.

The Liberals would have been stupid to oppose a budget that included their last round of income tax cuts.

[Michael Bluth]

The Liberals would have been stupid to oppose a budget that included their last round of income tax cuts.

Just as they would have been unwise to talk about potentially raising the GST.

Oh wait, Steph did that.

[Shakeyhands]

Just as they would have been unwise to talk about potentially raising the GST.

Oh wait, Steph did that.

I find it funny that although many economists agreed with the Liberal Party that lowering the GST was a dumb thing to do as opposed to lowering the Personal Income Tax and Business Taxes more significantly that people continue to be excited about getting a hundred dollars a year or so back.

Buying votes from the less intelligent I suppose.

I thought you right wingers were economically astute?

[Smallc]

Just as they would have been unwise to talk about potentially raising the GST.

Oh wait, Steph did that.

Just like the conservatives raised income taxes the last time they cut the GST.....Its only because of the fact that we happen to sit on a great resource base along with good fiscal management over the last 12 or so years that they are in the position they are now

[jdobbin]

I find it funny that although many economists agreed with the Liberal Party that lowering the GST was a dumb thing to do as opposed to lowering the Personal Income Tax and Business Taxes more significantly that people continue to be excited about getting a hundred dollars a year or so back.

I've calculated how much I will get back and $300 compared to $1000 or more from a 2% income tax is a big difference.

The only way I would make a real saving next year is if I bought a house and since I already own one: no dice. I really prefer year in year out decreases in my income taxes.

[jdobbin]

Just like the conservatives raised income taxes the last time they cut the GST.....Its only because of the fact that we happen to sit on a great resource base along with good fiscal management over the last 12 or so years that they are in the position they are now

It's funny how the Tories finally restored that Liberal income tax cut when the Canadian Taxpayers Federation roasted them for over two years on it.

[jdobbin]

Tories rise about 40% for the first time since election.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...ab2&k=71898

Fuelled by unprecedented support in Quebec, the federal Conservative party has zoomed to 42 per cent support among decided voters, a high water mark that puts Prime Minister Stephen Harper closer to his goal of winning a majority government, a new national Ipsos-Reid poll says.

The survey said that while the Tories were up three points from last week, the Liberals remained stuck 14 points back with the support of 28 per cent of voters. The NDP rebounded two points to 15 per cent and the Green party held steady at seven per cent.

Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, said the numbers continue to be good for the Conservatives. They have been bouncing around 40 per cent support for five consecutive weeks, a period that included a mini-budget on Oct. 30 that laid out $60 billion worth of corporate and personal tax breaks.

"They are in majority territory, but it's not comfortable," Bricker said of the Conservatives. The Tories lopsided support in Alberta and rural Canada means its national support has to reach 45 per cent before the party can seriously consider itself in the running for a majority mandate.

Bricker said the mood in Quebec is extremely volatile, given the wild swings in voter preferences in the last few weekly polls. The challenge for the Tories is sustaining the level of support they got this week, he said.

Bricker said the survey findings give neither the Conservatives nor the opposition Liberals, led by an embattled Stephane Dion, reason to want a quick election.

"The Tories want to see a couple more weeks of sustained popularity, especially in Quebec, and it's really tough times for the Liberals," Bricker said.

[Michael Bluth]

Tories rise about 40% for the first time since election.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...ab2&k=71898

Now they are raising the bar to 45% for a majority for the Conservatives?

At least we won't be hearing the Conservatives are averaging 36% from certain posters anymore.

The Liberals at 28%?

That's about what John Turner got in 1984. Woo boy, Steph is definitely going to keep bending over to avoid an election for the foreseeable future.

[cpidgeon]

Part of being in politics is knowing when to read the people's feelings on a subject. The poll pretty much confirms what Dion and Harper both said: 1.) that people don't want to go the polls just yet; and 2.) they don't want a budget defeated that includes tax cuts.

The Liberals would have been stupid to oppose a budget that included their last round of income tax cuts.

The only reason some of the liberal caucus sat on the fence and didn't vote is because they are disorganized and their party mimicks the conservatives.

[Michael Bluth]

The only reason some of the liberal caucus sat on the fence and didn't vote is because they are disorganized and their party mimicks the conservatives.

They also went against their leader desire to force an election.

Are the inmates running the asylum?

Edited November 10, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jbg]

They also went against their leader desire to force an election.

Are the inmates running the asylum?

Maybe the backbencher members of HM's oppositions didn't have jobs lined up back home, or their wives/husbands didn't want them back so fast.

[Keepitsimple]

Federal Conservatives gain support: poll

Sat Nov 10, 9:55 AM

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Conservatives powered ahead in an opinion poll released on Saturday, reaching their highest level of popular support since the 2006 federal election with figures that could give them a majority government.

The poll, by Ipsos Reid for the CanWest group of newspapers, shows the Conservatives with 42 percent support, up from 39 percent a week ago.

That is well above the 28 percent for the opposition Liberals, or the 15 percent for the left-wing New Democrats. The Conservatives are level with the separatist Bloc Quebecois in French-speaking Quebec.

The Conservatives have only a minority government at present. They have stayed in power in recent weeks as the Liberals, battered by poor approval ratings for leader Stephane Dion, abstained in key policy votes.

Link: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071110/...l&printer=1

[old_bold&cold]

Well as I said a month ago when JD was amking all the issues of the CPC never moving higher in the polls, I gues I was right, the polls would soon be going well into majority area. He laughed at my 46-48 % prediction, but with Dion on his run to submarine the liberals, that is not such a far fetched number now is it. We are only 5% from being dead center of it, and things look like upwards is where things will go.

But I must admit that I said before that I do not put much faith in what polls show. I did not before and I really do not now. I find them to be a floating indicator of about 40% of what the people are thinking. The other 60% will always be the dark horse in all things of politics. Give the people some haert wrenching issue and we will have high voter turn out, but have a lackluster campaigne and we will have very low turn outs. I think the high turn outs will benefit the CPC and the low turn out the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Link: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071110/...l&printer=1

This poll was already posted in this thread.